New York Jets @ New England Patriots
If you are wondering why the Patriots are only -7 at home this week, after being -6 in NY a month ago; it's because this is the best spot of the season for the Jets. Robert Saleh was one of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL a season ago, and he just had 14 days of preparation time for a New England offense his team faced just four weeks back. The same Robert Saleh who led the 49ers to the #5 ranked defense by weighted DVOA last year, despite losing Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, and Soloman Thomas to season ending injuries. Coming off the loss in London, and with nobody to look ahead to next week; the Jets surely spent every day of their long break focusing on how to be better prepared for New England this time around. Despite looking awful with a 1-4 record on the year, the Jets defense has been surprisingly rather good. They are ninth in yards per play allowed. Ninth in rushing yards per play allowed. Fourth in red zone defense, and tenth in third down defense. More importantly however, is that Saleh is getting significant reinforcements at just the right time to boost that underrated defense even further. After missing the last several weeks, starting safety Marcus Maye will finally be returning to help solidify a Jets secondary that has been missing both of their safeties for the last few games. This already solid defense should be even better this week when you consider the reinforcements and the 14 days of preparation time behind a strong defensive minded coach.
As for their offense, the Jets lost to the Patriots 25-6 in the first match up due to Zach Wilson throwing 4 interceptions against Belichick's defense. I fully expect the Jets to rely on a much more conservative offensive game plan this time around which means a lot of runs and a lower scoring game, which makes a +7 spread look even more enticing. It is also noteworthy that Zach Wilson will have his WR1 Jamison Crowder this week as well, something he didn't have in the first match-up. While the Patriots put a ton of effort and emotion into last week's overtime game against the Cowboys, the Jets were resting and watching game-film of their blowout defeat from 30 days ago. Getting +7 in this spot, is a bargain.
Saturday Update: One of the reasons the Patriots weren't able to stop the Cowboys offense in the second half last week was because they lost 5 defensive starters to injury mid-game. Those injuries will still be in effect this week, as top slot cornerback Jonathan Jones will be out this week leaving a rookie to play in his spot who has a career 19 snaps played, defensive end Chase Winovich also out, and top linebacker Donta Hightower is out as well. The strength of the Patriots is their defense, but it's no longer elite when you lose half your starters to injury. The Jets are the more rested team, the more prepared team; and the far healthier team this weekend.
Jets +7 / ML +274
NICE, SWEET!!..
EAT!!..
nice to see the ghost is back much appreciated took them last night, love the conformation from a LEGEND BOL
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