NFC Championship Game
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
(Atlanta -6, 60)
Sunday, January 22nd, 3:05 PM ET
Right now, the numbers I'm finding show that a little over 2/3rds of all bets are coming in on the public darling, Green Bay Packers. They're the hottest thing around right now right? Aaron Rodgers is "Mr. Clutch" and will be able to walk the dog despite several key injuries they have on both sides of the ball right? They'll waltz right into Atlanta and beat the eyes out of Matty Ice and the rest of that terrible team with their low-scoring offense right? Maybe so lol, but lets take a look at some numbers and other things about this game.
Right now, the line is Atlanta -6 with the over/under line sitting at 60. Lets look at the quarterbacks first off. Matt Ryan has a league leading 117.1 passer rating for the entire season and Aaron Rodgers holds a rating of 117.9 during their 8 game win streak. Ryan passed for 4,944 yards with 38 TDs against 7 INTs. Rodgers has thrown for 4,428 yards with 40 TDs against 7 INTs. But you see, Matt Ryan has topped the 100 passer rating in 12 of the 16 regular season games and also went over that in post season play against the Seahawks. His passer rating for the season is ranked 5th in NFL history. So I'd say he's just as "hot" as Rodgers right now if not hotter!
Look, we know there's going to be plenty of points scored here and that number of 60 is going to be pretty close to the total IMO. Neither team boasts that "shut down defense" that it's supposed to take to win championships. But, I do feel that the Falcons has the better of the two and at home should "Rise Up" as they say to the occasion. Green Bay finished the season ranked 31st in pass defense while the Falcons were not much better ranking at 26th. After watching both teams past few games though, I feel that Atlanta has the defense that is improving the most. Still, this could come down to playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. The Falcons have scored over 33 points in each of their past 6 victories and scored over 40 in two of those games. That's because they have so many playmakers and one superstar receiver in Julio Jones. Heck their 2 running backs are just as good at catching balls out of the backfield as they are taking hand-offs. For Rodgers, he'll be missing his favorite target I suspect in Jordy Nelson and even if he does play, he won't be much of a factor with those busted up ribs. He'd be more of a decoy. Even Davante Adams is still a question mark. Ryan's passing offense leads the league in passing yards per attempt at 9.26 so they'll definitely get their points. I'm just not sure GB can hang with them for a full 4 quarters. I mean the Packers don't have near the talent at the safety and linebacker positions as the Seahawks did and you see what Matt Ryan done to them.
The Falcons scored an amazing 540 points in the regular season and average over 35 points per game at home. Plus Matt Ryan will be behind an offensive line that has started all 16 games together this season. They are the only NFL team that can say that. Atlanta has caught fire at just the right time. Plus they will be the more rested of the two teams having had a first round playoff bye while GB had to battle the Giants a week before Dallas last week where they nearly let the Cowboys come back to win that one with 18 fourth quarter points. That is due to attrition problems and just plain ol' fatigue. The Packers give up right at 270 yards per game to opposing passers which is 2nd worst in the league. Look for Atlanta to pull away in the 3rd quarter as that is the time they truly shine. They outscore their opponents in that quarter by a whopping 87 points compared to the Packers who have only outscored their opponents in that quarter by a measly 7 points! So with all that being said, give me the Falcons at home giving up the 6 points as I have them winning by 9. My prediction is Atlanta 35 - Green Bay 26. BOL!
Atlanta Falcons -6
GL theNaturel 
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