NFL 2024 Picks

That time of year

2021   11-12 -3.65 units

2022   24-14 +6.92 units

2023   11-14 -1.725 units

GL all

dubz 

Week 1 leans

Kelce over 5.5 receptions @1.70....missed this at 1.80(-125)...mahomes should find his safety blanket week 1

Car/no under 41.5 @1.91...like loser under 20 here

Prob my top 2 leans, not sure if ill lock em in...kelce odds trash now

Buncha other plays that stood out but not as strong

Min/nyg under 41.0 @1.91...don't trust either defence but should be low scoring

Wsh/tb under 44.0 @1.91...tb d should be good...rookie qb for wsh

Carr under 227.5 passing yards @1.88..car secondary good and if saints lead they could run ball

Darnold under 230.5 passing yards @1.88...hard to trust giants secondary

J.daniels under 218.5 passing yards @1.88....bucs d pretty legit...main worry would be if bucs get big lead and wsh goes pass heavy

D.jones over 26.5 rush yards @1.85...sneaky rushing qb...he can easily bust this on 2 or 3 scrambles/broken down plays

Aj brown over 5.5 receptions @1.80...hurts safety blanket which usually gets targets week 1...but hurts could spread the ball out or target d.smith/goedert/saquon instead

K.allen over 4.5 receptions @1.95...who does Caleb target....shares with Moore and odunze

Nothing locked in as of yet, week 1 always a bit of a learning curve from all the off-season changes

@kcblitzkrieg

 Kc

@dubz4dummyz

 Gmen on a 15-0-1 run to the Under when home dogs of less than 6 going back to 2020 

@kcblitzkrieg

 Ya hard to see both over 20 points....but talk about 2 trash secondaries

Well leans start off 0-2

Glad I held off

Debating the car/no under

Another lean

Car/no over 3.5 fg @2.32...like that its indoors, decent kickers but they are known to miss which will prob hold me off this one

BOL, dubz 

1 locked in

Car/no under 41.0 @1.92  0.5 to win  0.46

Like a 21-17 type game here

Division game

Only worry is this series is due for an over,7 straight unders

GL all

@dubz4dummyz

 good luck dubz - hockey almost here... 

@iConsciousness

 Thanks for poppin in, hope we both have a great season 

@dyamarik

 Indeed

Week 1 leans 5-6

Went 3-0 on passing unders....1-2 on totals...0-3 on receptions...1-0 on fg prop...0-1 on rush props

Week 1 bets

0-1     -0.5 units

Week 2 leans

Wsh -1.0 @1.85...not best odds

Tb +7.0 @ 2.01

Lar +1.0 @1.93

No +6.0 @1.93

Sea/ne under 38.5 @1.95

Lar/ari over 48.0 @1.95

Lac/car under 38.5 @1.95

Pit/den under 36.5 @1.95...prefer 37 or 38 here but expecting low score

Prob gonna wait for better numbers on the totals...

Waiting on props

Good luck Dubz.  

@D-Town

  gl this season DT

Note for week 1....I did not see saints scoring 47!!! Points fucking wild lol

Leans

Jay.daniels over 52.5 rush yards @1.92...fave play on the board this week

Montgomery over 55.5 rush yards @1.88...shares work load with Gibbs

Dobbins over 50.5 rush yards @1.85 ...shares load with edwards...lac should lead and pound the run

Lamar over 50.5 rush yards @1.85...really like this one too...ravens should lead

Saquon over 75.5 rush yards @1.88...if eagles lead they should pound the run 

1 locked in

Jayden daniels over 52.5 rush yards @1.92  1 to win  0.92

He looked dangerous scrambling last week, and elusive at that...even when rusher had him in sights he could side step it and get away

Nyg have a decent DL which could collapse pockets leading to daniels scrambling

He should bust at least 1 15+ yard run

Like him in the 40+ rush yards so ill take chance on the over

GL all

1 locked in

Dobbins over 50.5 rush yards @1.85  0.5 to win 0.425

Derrick brown panthers best defender out

Harbaugh should pound the run here

He had a 41 and 62 yard rush last week, so potential to go over this on a couple rushes

Like him to get 40+ yards so ill take a chance he gets 51+

GL all

More leans

Chase over 70.5 rec yards @1.88

D.smith over 59.5 rec yards @1.88

Dobbins TD @2.05

G.edwards TD @2.40...basically think one of the LAC RBs scores a TD,  maybe both

Pit/den over 3.5 fg @1.85...missed this at 1.98

Week 2 leans went 11-7

Ats 3-1

Total 3-1

Rush prop 2-3

Td prop 1-1

Rec prop 1-1

Fg prop 1-0

Week 2 Bets 1-1  -0.575 units 

Overall 1-2  -1.075 units

0-1  -1.0   1-unit plays

1-1  -0.075  0.5-unit plays

Week 2 leans 

Wsh +8.0 @1.85

Ne/nyj under 38.5 @1.95

Gb/ten under 36.5 @1.93

Lac/pit under 36.0 @1.88

Nyg/cle under 39.0 @1.88

Phi/no under 49.5 @1.93

Car/lv under 41.0 @1.95

Waiting on props

GL  on your plays & props to you mah man @dubz4dummyz 

@Cyrax @Macwestie1

Fellas

more leans

Indy -1.0 @1.90

Williams under 213.5 passing yards @1.88

Montgomery over 51.5 rush yards @1.85...shares workload with Gibbs 

Brian Robinson over 50.5 rush yards @1.85....if wsh gets blown out this won't hit

M.evans under 66.5 rec yards @1.88...apparently surtain gonna shadow him and surtain is taking PI penalties instead of allowing big completions 

Harrison Jr over 61.5 rec yards @1.85...expecting shootout here

Phi/no over 3.5 fg @1.95...missed this at 2.35....phi been holding teams to FGs...indoor game 

Bal/dal over 3.5 fg @1.88...2 good kickers and indoor game

More leans

Chi/ind under 44.0 @1.95

Den/tb under 41.5 @1.88

Leans went 11-6.....6-2 on totals...2-0 ats...0-2  fg props...1-1 rec props....1-1 rush props...0-1 pass props

Leans week 4

Den/nyj under 39.0 @1.88

Den +7.5 @1.95

Pit/ind under 40.0 @1.97

No/atl under 40.5 @1.95

No/atl over 3.5 fg @2.12

Min/gb under 43.5 @1.97

Wsh/ari over 48.5 @1.88

Looking at props...lines seem pretty tight tho

3 locked in

Den/nyj under 39.5 @1.93  0.5 to win 0.465

Pit/ind under 41.5 @1.88  0.5 to win 0.44

Min/gb under 44.0 @1.95  0.5 to win 0.475

Couple good defensive teams listed above. Also should see a lot of rush attempts in a few of those games. Like the losers in all 3 games under 20 points. 

GL all

1-2 -0.535

Leans went 4-3...2-3 on totals...1-0 ats...1-0 fg props

Overall 2-4  -1.610 units

0-1  -1.0   1-unit plays

2-3  -0.610  0.5-unit plays