FINAL YTD (NFL): 71-44-4 YTD
NFL PLAYOFFS: 7-4 ATS
I've had quite the week so I apologize for having started a thread saying picks would follow and then waiting until Saturday evening to draft this. Though I've also been waiting on some weather and players which is pretty much all official.
So here we are...my beloved Ravens hosting an AFC Championship game for the first time and Lamar Jackson, the most likely NFL MVP this year, 60 minutes off from his first Super Bowl. And why not lick your chops, if you can get by the current Super Bowl mainstay Patrick Mahomes, you will either face a Lions team or 49ers team, each of which we destroyed this year.
As I stated in the previous thread, the Chiefs and Ravens are 5-5 both SU and ATS against one another in the last 10. But this is a different Ravens team, a team that led the NFL in both sacks and rushing yards, getting things done on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are 14-4 ATS in the First Half this year and the Chiefs are 8-10 ATS. Overall the Ravens are 6-3 ATS at home as a favorite and the Chiefs are 2-0 ATS as a road underdog. So what gives?
I already have HUGE money on the Ravens to win the AFC and the Ravens to win the Super Bowl, so if anything I might hedge some with a now generous 4 point line. My gut is telling me the Ravens roll, even more so in the FH. In the closer games and losses, they have had a habit of giving up a lead in the 2nd half though many times they have held on for the win. The Chiefs have strangely really struggled to score in the 2nd half so do they score more in the first? I do think so, but I also think the Ravens find pay dirt at least 2 times FH. While it might be cold, weather does not seem to be much of an issue, maybe a chance of rain, but that hasn't slowed the Ravens offense down this year when they have played in it.
OVER 22.5 FH (KC/BAL) & OVER 44.5...BIG PLAY!
The Ravens are 3.5 favorite in the first half where they have gone 14-4 ATS, including the loss last week. Tough line. That .5 is a killer when both teams have good kickers. Interestingly enough, Vegas must also think the Ravens come out firing in the FH b/c the full game line just only last night ticked up to 4 points. So I'm going to give a LOT of thought on this.
I will be back on here for the next play with the Lions and Niners. Detroit has been MISERABLE in SF yet been really good covering and the 7 points has been tough given how bad SF has been of late covering at home (0-6 ATS in last 6 home games). But I really do like the Niners just need to meditate a bit more on which angle to play.
Keep comments positive, like I said I will be back on here and there, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
close to 62%.. Awesome season brother
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