NFL CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYS

FINAL YTD (NFL):  71-44-4 YTD

NFL PLAYOFFS:  7-4 ATS

I've had quite the week so I apologize for having started a thread saying picks would follow and then waiting until Saturday evening to draft this.  Though I've also been waiting on some weather and players which is pretty much all official.

So here we are...my beloved Ravens hosting an AFC Championship game for the first time and Lamar Jackson, the most likely NFL MVP this year, 60 minutes off from his first Super Bowl.  And why not lick your chops, if you can get by the current Super Bowl mainstay Patrick Mahomes, you will either face a Lions team or 49ers team, each of which we destroyed this year.

As I stated in the previous thread, the Chiefs and Ravens are 5-5 both SU and ATS against one another in the last 10.  But this is a different Ravens team, a team that led the NFL in both sacks and rushing yards, getting things done on both sides of the ball.  The Ravens are 14-4 ATS in the First Half this year and the Chiefs are 8-10 ATS.  Overall the Ravens are 6-3 ATS at home as a favorite and the Chiefs are 2-0 ATS as a road underdog.  So what gives?

I already have HUGE money on the Ravens to win the AFC and the Ravens to win the Super Bowl, so if anything I might hedge some with a now generous 4 point line.  My gut is telling me the Ravens roll, even more so in the FH.  In the closer games and losses, they have had a habit of giving up a lead in the 2nd half though many times they have held on for the win.  The Chiefs have strangely really struggled to score in the 2nd half so do they score more in the first?  I do think so, but I also think the Ravens find pay dirt at least 2 times FH.  While it might be cold, weather does not seem to be much of an issue, maybe a chance of rain, but that hasn't slowed the Ravens offense down this year when they have played in it.

OVER 22.5 FH (KC/BAL) & OVER 44.5...BIG PLAY!

The Ravens are 3.5 favorite in the first half where they have gone 14-4 ATS, including the loss last week.  Tough line.  That .5 is a killer when both teams have good kickers.  Interestingly enough, Vegas must also think the Ravens come out firing in the FH b/c the full game line just only last night ticked up to 4 points.  So I'm going to give a LOT of thought on this.

I will be back on here for the next play with the Lions and Niners.  Detroit has been MISERABLE in SF yet been really good covering and the 7 points has been tough given how bad SF has been of late covering at home (0-6 ATS in last 6 home games).  But I really do like the Niners just need to meditate a bit more on which angle to play.

Keep comments positive, like I said I will be back on here and there, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Appreciate yr thoughts!..GL pal

Let’s do this .. RAVENSSSSSSSSSS

@LAGameofInches

GK LA  close to 62%.. Awesome season brother

I'm envious! What a great position you've put yourself in, especially since (as you pointed out) the Ravens have already shown us what they are capable of doing to either potential NFC opponent.

GL 

We know by now that the Ravens - for whatever reasons - have not been sharp in 1st halves that follow a bye week. That has now been the case for years (the fake 2020 season excluded, as always). So, if you...

1) ...throw out the two games that preceded bye weeks this season

2) ...throw out the first three weeks of the season

3) ...and throw out the meaningless regular season finale in which Lamar Jackson and other starters did not participate

...the Ravens went a perfect 12-0 SU & ATS in 1st halves this season. Seems too good to be true that they were only -2.5 -110 for a day and a half earlier this week, but they were.

@MrBator  

Ravens Half time/Full time is currently -115 

@LAGameofInches

Thanks for the info & BOL today! 

@MrBator

 Wow good info Bator, thank you sir! 

@LAGameofInches

 BOL 

@LAGameofInches

 Great analysis as usual. Thanks LAG and GL! 

I thought last week I would buck that trend but that punt return crushed my dreams.  I think the only thing keeping me from unloading on this is that .5 point.  If the Ravens don't get the 2 TD's as I think they will and one of those is instead a FG, that would be a 3 point vs. 4 point FH victory.  I don't see, personally, barring TO's, the Chiefs getting over 10 points.  BUT, I love the total b/c it's 22.5 and that gives me the 23 which would be 13-10 theoretically, but then I'd lose the FH by a bump.

Only reason I'm still on the fence here.  

Ravens Half time/Full time is currently -115[/Quote]

I'm biting on that...I can't really pummel into it b/c I'm actually pretty responsible and have a load of cash on the Ravens as AFC champions so have to be a bit disciplined too but that looks great to me 

@LAGameofInches

 I cashed my ravens division future and also have the ravens afc and SB futures.

I'll hedge just a bit.

Also have Detroit in the same scenario .

Did that after they beat KC 

Bol

Dam betUs has ravens  1st half 21.5 -125  to much juice    

Public is on the over 

I got BALTIMORE FH (-3) and so I’m gonna ride that out if only based on this years team in the FH. I’m already on RAVENS future to win AFC so I’m passing on FG. Ravens also went OVER the FH total by an average of 7 points I believe. So there’s that too. 

Be back very shortly with NFC Championship as well. As always tail or fade good luck to all…