Best Bets: 1-2 (-2.0 U) (Best bets are included as part of the Season ATS)
Futures: (+0.6 U) (Should have been +10.6 if not for Jags and Dolphins choking in the final week)
-- Season win totals: 3-1 (+3.6)
-- Others: 0-2 (-3 U)
OVERALL: +5.3 U
AFC Championship Best Bet
3U Ravens (-3.5) EV
If the line drops to 3, I'll be doubling up... which will be easily the biggest bet on any single game this year. The line is way off, and this should be a double-digit win.
Best Bets: 1-2 (-2.0 U) (Best bets are included as part of the Season ATS)
Futures: (+0.6 U) (Should have been +10.6 if not for Jags and Dolphins choking in the final week)
-- Season win totals: 3-1 (+3.6)
-- Others: 0-2 (-3 U)
OVERALL: +5.3 U
AFC Championship Best Bet
3U Ravens (-3.5) EV
If the line drops to 3, I'll be doubling up... which will be easily the biggest bet on any single game this year. The line is way off, and this should be a double-digit win.
Based on the preliminary look, I have the correct spread on this game around 10-13 points........ it's way off, and not because my numbers are off!
The Chiefs have one chance and one chance only in this game... Lamar Jackson injury... and even that will probably not be enough. It will not be close!
Based on the preliminary look, I have the correct spread on this game around 10-13 points........ it's way off, and not because my numbers are off!
The Chiefs have one chance and one chance only in this game... Lamar Jackson injury... and even that will probably not be enough. It will not be close!
Im not saying you are right or wrong with your pic or analysis, but the KC offense is a different animal once Mahomes found a WR he can trust in Rice. I think it makes a huge difference and its hard to compare a KC team from earlier in the season until now.
Im not saying you are right or wrong with your pic or analysis, but the KC offense is a different animal once Mahomes found a WR he can trust in Rice. I think it makes a huge difference and its hard to compare a KC team from earlier in the season until now.
That may be true, but I'm not comparing to earlier in the season. I'm looking at the last 7 games, when the Chiefs played only 3 playoff teams, and one of those was a Dolphins team that was missing Bradley Chubb, Jaelen Phillips, Jerome Baker, Javon Holland, Xavien Howard and Andrew Van Ginkel... plus Deshon Elliott for the 2nd half. The 26 points they scored in that game was the most of any in the last 7 games, and BOTH TDs the Chiefs scored in that game were gifted to them by Miami... the first TD was scored on the first drive, after Duke Riley got injured, but inexplicably didn't stay down, even though he couldn't even walk. Mahommes saw hit, and threw it to his man, who walked into the endzone. The last TD came after the Dolphins stopped them on 3rd and 20... but Wilkins committed an inexplicably stupid roughing the passer penalty, and 2 play later KC scored.
They averaged 22 PPG over those 7 games, while playing 4 non-playoff teams, plus the Dolphins practice squad.
If you want to get excited that he's found Rice, bet on the Chiefs. I'm just looking at these two teams and seeing very clearly that there is a MASSIVE chasm between them. It's just as much a bet on one of the most dominant teams in NFL history, based on their 11-3 record against teams above .500, 0 losses against teams below .500, and blowing out a significant number of those playoff teams.
Nail in the coffin is the fact that the Chiefs took some more injury hits against the Bills, especially on defense.
I would be absolutely SHOCKED if this game is within 10 points... but I'm not going to be shocked! Trust me... this will not be close!
That may be true, but I'm not comparing to earlier in the season. I'm looking at the last 7 games, when the Chiefs played only 3 playoff teams, and one of those was a Dolphins team that was missing Bradley Chubb, Jaelen Phillips, Jerome Baker, Javon Holland, Xavien Howard and Andrew Van Ginkel... plus Deshon Elliott for the 2nd half. The 26 points they scored in that game was the most of any in the last 7 games, and BOTH TDs the Chiefs scored in that game were gifted to them by Miami... the first TD was scored on the first drive, after Duke Riley got injured, but inexplicably didn't stay down, even though he couldn't even walk. Mahommes saw hit, and threw it to his man, who walked into the endzone. The last TD came after the Dolphins stopped them on 3rd and 20... but Wilkins committed an inexplicably stupid roughing the passer penalty, and 2 play later KC scored.
They averaged 22 PPG over those 7 games, while playing 4 non-playoff teams, plus the Dolphins practice squad.
If you want to get excited that he's found Rice, bet on the Chiefs. I'm just looking at these two teams and seeing very clearly that there is a MASSIVE chasm between them. It's just as much a bet on one of the most dominant teams in NFL history, based on their 11-3 record against teams above .500, 0 losses against teams below .500, and blowing out a significant number of those playoff teams.
Nail in the coffin is the fact that the Chiefs took some more injury hits against the Bills, especially on defense.
I would be absolutely SHOCKED if this game is within 10 points... but I'm not going to be shocked! Trust me... this will not be close!
A nice write-up and you made a compelling case for the Ravens. BOL
Does experience in big post season games count for anything? Yes, the Chiefs under-performed on offense this year but they looked battle tested versus the Bills. The Bills were starting so many backups due to injury so they were not at full strength. The Bills' D is not the Ravens D for sure. Of course all teams have to cope with injuries, the Ravens had their share.
I like Lamar and I think he has progressed in his passing but historically he has not done well versus the Chiefs (1-3 record lifetime)? Hasn't played them since 2021 though so? I am leaning Ravens too but still pondering over it.
"A people that can't distinguish between truth and lies can't tell right from wrong"
A nice write-up and you made a compelling case for the Ravens. BOL
Does experience in big post season games count for anything? Yes, the Chiefs under-performed on offense this year but they looked battle tested versus the Bills. The Bills were starting so many backups due to injury so they were not at full strength. The Bills' D is not the Ravens D for sure. Of course all teams have to cope with injuries, the Ravens had their share.
I like Lamar and I think he has progressed in his passing but historically he has not done well versus the Chiefs (1-3 record lifetime)? Hasn't played them since 2021 though so? I am leaning Ravens too but still pondering over it.
I would be absolutely SHOCKED if this game is within 10 points... but I'm not going to be shocked! Trust me... this will not be close!
How many times has Patrick Mahomes lost a game by 10 or more points?
How many playoff games has Patrick Mahomes lost by 10 or more points?
Ravens are likely to win this game but other than the time a depleted, injury ravaged offensive line Mahomes played with against the Tom Brady led Buccs in the Super Bowl, when has he gotten blown out in a game ??
I would be absolutely SHOCKED if this game is within 10 points... but I'm not going to be shocked! Trust me... this will not be close!
How many times has Patrick Mahomes lost a game by 10 or more points?
How many playoff games has Patrick Mahomes lost by 10 or more points?
Ravens are likely to win this game but other than the time a depleted, injury ravaged offensive line Mahomes played with against the Tom Brady led Buccs in the Super Bowl, when has he gotten blown out in a game ??
A nice write-up and you made a compelling case for the Ravens. BOL Does experience in big post season games count for anything? Yes, the Chiefs under-performed on offense this year but they looked battle tested versus the Bills. The Bills were starting so many backups due to injury so they were not at full strength. The Bills' D is not the Ravens D for sure. Of course all teams have to cope with injuries, the Ravens had their share. I like Lamar and I think he has progressed in his passing but historically he has not done well versus the Chiefs (1-3 record lifetime)? Hasn't played them since 2021 though so? I am leaning Ravens too but still pondering over it.
36-35 Ravens won in 2021 in Bmore......
Great game...
Another one looms....
If the Chiefs bring the D that was in Buffalo they get curb stomped...
A nice write-up and you made a compelling case for the Ravens. BOL Does experience in big post season games count for anything? Yes, the Chiefs under-performed on offense this year but they looked battle tested versus the Bills. The Bills were starting so many backups due to injury so they were not at full strength. The Bills' D is not the Ravens D for sure. Of course all teams have to cope with injuries, the Ravens had their share. I like Lamar and I think he has progressed in his passing but historically he has not done well versus the Chiefs (1-3 record lifetime)? Hasn't played them since 2021 though so? I am leaning Ravens too but still pondering over it.
36-35 Ravens won in 2021 in Bmore......
Great game...
Another one looms....
If the Chiefs bring the D that was in Buffalo they get curb stomped...
Yes, experience matters, and if everything put the number close to the spread, I would take it into consideration. The numbers aren't close, and I've been doing this for 20+ years, and every year people always say the same thing and dismiss them. They don't give 100% results, but when it's this lopsided, I'd be hard-pressed to remember a time it predicted the wrong winner. As for Lamar, watching him this year he is a different animal.
One of the things I realized a long time ago is that the majority of people are only able to predict what happened yesterday... they can never see something new happening, if it hasn't happened before. Sports is littered with examples of a player or a team breaking a norm that has repeated itself over and over. There are ways to know when it's going to happen, but most people simply can't (or refuse to) see it.
Yes, experience matters, and if everything put the number close to the spread, I would take it into consideration. The numbers aren't close, and I've been doing this for 20+ years, and every year people always say the same thing and dismiss them. They don't give 100% results, but when it's this lopsided, I'd be hard-pressed to remember a time it predicted the wrong winner. As for Lamar, watching him this year he is a different animal.
One of the things I realized a long time ago is that the majority of people are only able to predict what happened yesterday... they can never see something new happening, if it hasn't happened before. Sports is littered with examples of a player or a team breaking a norm that has repeated itself over and over. There are ways to know when it's going to happen, but most people simply can't (or refuse to) see it.
Don't care at all! Football is not a one-player sport. Saying Mahommes has never been blown out instantly becomes a meaningless statement. Mahommes' TEAM hasn't been blown out because Mahommes' TEAM has almost always been the superior team, or at least on a par.
That is not the case this week.
Brace yourself... this week will be ugly for Chiefs fans, and difficult for a lot of them to swallow. It doesn't mean Mahommes suddenly sucks or has lost it... it means his TEAM ran up against a superior opponent...
Don't care at all! Football is not a one-player sport. Saying Mahommes has never been blown out instantly becomes a meaningless statement. Mahommes' TEAM hasn't been blown out because Mahommes' TEAM has almost always been the superior team, or at least on a par.
That is not the case this week.
Brace yourself... this week will be ugly for Chiefs fans, and difficult for a lot of them to swallow. It doesn't mean Mahommes suddenly sucks or has lost it... it means his TEAM ran up against a superior opponent...
I also remember when you told us all to brace ourselves because Miami was going to stomp Philly and KC this year.
Never said they would stomp either of them, and those games were not handicapped the same as these. The Eagles game, aside from the very bizarre officiating (10 to 0 penalties), was a game in which Miami was decimated with injuries, including a couple right at the start of the game. The Chiefs game was theirs to win, but the Tyreek fumble that was returned for a TD right before halftime was the difference in the game.
Please feel free to bet the Chiefs this week... I am not trying to convince anyone otherwise, least of all someone who wants to throw other bets from mid-season back in my face.
I also remember when you told us all to brace ourselves because Miami was going to stomp Philly and KC this year.
Never said they would stomp either of them, and those games were not handicapped the same as these. The Eagles game, aside from the very bizarre officiating (10 to 0 penalties), was a game in which Miami was decimated with injuries, including a couple right at the start of the game. The Chiefs game was theirs to win, but the Tyreek fumble that was returned for a TD right before halftime was the difference in the game.
Please feel free to bet the Chiefs this week... I am not trying to convince anyone otherwise, least of all someone who wants to throw other bets from mid-season back in my face.
didn’t you have a much healthier Miami team beating Balt in week 17?
Much healthier??? Aside from losing Xavien Howard on the first series of the game (and believe me... Miami drops off DRAMATICALLY when either Ramsey or Howard is out)... they were already missing tons of guys in that game. Missing 3 starting O-linemen, Waddle, Mostert, Jaelen Phillips, Jerome Baker, Javon Holland, and a few plays into the game... Howard. 5 offensive and 5 defensive starters. How is that healthy?
Re-watch that game... the Ravens targeted Duke Riley (Baker's replacement) over and over from the first play of the game... and then once X went out, they went after Eli Apple. Virtually EVERY SINGLE offensive snap the Ravens targeted those two players, and it worked over and over and over!
Miami was two very different teams when healthy and not healthy... and from the Titans game to the end of the season, they were missing 9-11 starters every single game!
didn’t you have a much healthier Miami team beating Balt in week 17?
Much healthier??? Aside from losing Xavien Howard on the first series of the game (and believe me... Miami drops off DRAMATICALLY when either Ramsey or Howard is out)... they were already missing tons of guys in that game. Missing 3 starting O-linemen, Waddle, Mostert, Jaelen Phillips, Jerome Baker, Javon Holland, and a few plays into the game... Howard. 5 offensive and 5 defensive starters. How is that healthy?
Re-watch that game... the Ravens targeted Duke Riley (Baker's replacement) over and over from the first play of the game... and then once X went out, they went after Eli Apple. Virtually EVERY SINGLE offensive snap the Ravens targeted those two players, and it worked over and over and over!
Miami was two very different teams when healthy and not healthy... and from the Titans game to the end of the season, they were missing 9-11 starters every single game!
I have not said which way I lean, but when you try and convince the forum a certain way, which you are, you are going to get kick back. Its like your trying to sell the idea that 100% Baltimore is the play and they will blow out the Chiefs. It could happen, as it is sports, but its 50-50 according to Vegas that Baltimore wins by more than just a fg.
I have not said which way I lean, but when you try and convince the forum a certain way, which you are, you are going to get kick back. Its like your trying to sell the idea that 100% Baltimore is the play and they will blow out the Chiefs. It could happen, as it is sports, but its 50-50 according to Vegas that Baltimore wins by more than just a fg.
I have not said which way I lean, but when you try and convince the forum a certain way, which you are, you are going to get kick back.
I am not trying to convince anybody of anything... I am hoping desperately that YOU wager a massive amount of money on the Chiefs!
I am just posting the information that I have analyzed, just like I do every playoff year, and just like every playoff year, people don't want to hear it! Bet whatever the fuck you want! I've given you the information...
I have not said which way I lean, but when you try and convince the forum a certain way, which you are, you are going to get kick back.
I am not trying to convince anybody of anything... I am hoping desperately that YOU wager a massive amount of money on the Chiefs!
I am just posting the information that I have analyzed, just like I do every playoff year, and just like every playoff year, people don't want to hear it! Bet whatever the fuck you want! I've given you the information...
Quote Originally Posted by Mangowoman: didn’t you have a much healthier Miami team beating Balt in week 17? Much healthier??? Aside from losing Xavien Howard on the first series of the game (and believe me... Miami drops off DRAMATICALLY when either Ramsey or Howard is out)... they were already missing tons of guys in that game. Missing 3 starting O-linemen, Waddle, Mostert, Jaelen Phillips, Jerome Baker, Javon Holland, and a few plays into the game... Howard. 5 offensive and 5 defensive starters. How is that healthy? Re-watch that game... the Ravens targeted Duke Riley (Baker's replacement) over and over from the first play of the game... and then once X went out, they went after Eli Apple. Virtually EVERY SINGLE offensive snap the Ravens targeted those two players, and it worked over and over and over! Miami was two very different teams when healthy and not healthy... and from the Titans game to the end of the season, they were missing 9-11 starters every single game!
Fair! Although Ravens were sans Kyle Hamilton (tantamount to losing Xavien Howard) and Mark Andrews among others.
But my question remains, if you knew the fins were so decimated, why were you so confident they’d handle Balt?
Quote Originally Posted by Mangowoman: didn’t you have a much healthier Miami team beating Balt in week 17? Much healthier??? Aside from losing Xavien Howard on the first series of the game (and believe me... Miami drops off DRAMATICALLY when either Ramsey or Howard is out)... they were already missing tons of guys in that game. Missing 3 starting O-linemen, Waddle, Mostert, Jaelen Phillips, Jerome Baker, Javon Holland, and a few plays into the game... Howard. 5 offensive and 5 defensive starters. How is that healthy? Re-watch that game... the Ravens targeted Duke Riley (Baker's replacement) over and over from the first play of the game... and then once X went out, they went after Eli Apple. Virtually EVERY SINGLE offensive snap the Ravens targeted those two players, and it worked over and over and over! Miami was two very different teams when healthy and not healthy... and from the Titans game to the end of the season, they were missing 9-11 starters every single game!
Fair! Although Ravens were sans Kyle Hamilton (tantamount to losing Xavien Howard) and Mark Andrews among others.
But my question remains, if you knew the fins were so decimated, why were you so confident they’d handle Balt?
I still like the Ravens to win the Super Bowl..... anyone confident enough to see a Ravens DD win should be taking some of the alt lines -7.5 and -10.5 for some nice plus money....
I still like the Ravens to win the Super Bowl..... anyone confident enough to see a Ravens DD win should be taking some of the alt lines -7.5 and -10.5 for some nice plus money....
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