NFL Conference Championships

Good luck andy!

I must say I'm impressed by all the Maryland/Balty homers in this thread, you guys are making some great points for discussion!  Not enough quality back-and-forths like this in covers any more.

Homer Shrimpson....

Guys I'm not arguing whether or not they cover the 9 points. I have them 2.5. If I thought New England would truly roll them then I would have laid the points.

I just don't know how people can dismiss the fatigue factor for the Ravens. OK 87 plays and 37.30 minutes against the Colts are one thing and maybe they could carry it over for another week. But when you add on such a long, emotional game to that how can that not affect them? It wasn't just the number of plays (especially on D) last week it was the fact that they were in altitude, were playing HARD AS HELL, and every single play mattered. They battled back 5 times from being down a TD. I mean a game like that has to take a tremendous toll not just physically but emotionally. These guys were basically crying on the field after the game because that's how big the game was and how intense it was that they just let loose when it was over.

How (as an older team) do you get back UP to that level again against another opponent of the same caliber? Yes, it's the conference championship game but motivation and physiologically finding the energy to have your body functioning at an elite level are two completely different things. I'm sure most of you guys have played sports and when you don't have your legs/you physically aren't up to snuff for a particular game there is almost nothing you can do, you just don't have it. The body has limitations and when it's been stressed to extremes it just usually doesn't function as well afterwards.

I feel that adrenaline is something that is more of a factor in specific games. I had Baltimore last week and wasn't too worried about the fatigue in Denver. They had energy last week after the Colts game and I'd agree that they could have been running on fumes through the 2nd half. But now the time off kills the adrenaline. Think of when you sprain an ankle during a game. Often people can come back in the same game because their adrenaline is firing on all cylinders. But after the adrenaline of that game wears off you still have a sprained ankle. You can't get you adrenaline back up to a level where you don't feel pain the next game. To think the Ravens are going to come in here and hoping that adrenaline will make their bodies fire at the elite level they will need to stay with a Pats offense that is going to fire off as many plays as they can seems crazy to me.

The Ravens are going to have to be 100% physically and mentally to win this game. Now they are stringing together these performances which is the compounding effect I'm mainly referring to here that makes this situation so tough. Even 90% won't be enough.

Damn great write up....I hear U....Had week #16 off....subs played 75% of the game...last week took a lot out of the fans,and even moreso the players...extra day will help...late game will help too.short flight the same...U make lots of sense,but us Ravens believe in our guys...63-30 last 93...They are warriors and will fight the team we despise the most....We respect the Steelers....Pretty Boy Brady just rubs us the wrong way...always bittching about something......GL....Next week...

I'm not buying the "they want this so bad for Ray" and the "they can smell it now" arguments either. Like the Pats don't want to get back to the Super Bowl after losing last year? If the Ravens wanted it so bad why did they need double OT to win last week? I heard today that the Ravens had a 0.1% chance of winning that game last week when Flacco took the snap on the TD play based on the score, where they were on the field, and how much time was left. They won on a complete miracle throw that was horribly misplayed. Believe me I know the danger in saying they should have lost and I never really put any stock into that aspect when I made the bet but I'm just addressing the "they want it so bad' argument; if they really wanted it and were playing so hard, and heroic and all this other hyperbole then why did they put themselves in a situation where they needed a hail mary and had a 0.1% chance of winning the game? That argument is complete nonsense.

If, as I expect, the big guys in the Ravens defensive front can't find it in their legs to play at an elite level I think the Ravens are in trouble. The secondary is not good and if the rush isn't firing on all cylinders Brady will pick them apart. Keep in mind a QB who could not throw the ball more than 10 yards last week still completed 65% for 290 yards and 3 TD. He did have 2 INT but one bounced off his receiver's hands and the other was a terrible throw that Manning can't make with that weak arm. The Ravens didn't force either of those turnovers. Against Indy, although the final numbers aren't there, the Colts pass offense also had success as Luck was moving the ball well as anyone who watched that game knows.

Unlike San Francisco the Ravens defense did not hold good QB's down this year. Baltimore played 6 games including postseason against QB's that finished in the Top 10 in passer rating. Here are the ratings for those QB's for the season followed by how they did against Baltimore:

Tom Brady: 98.6.........101.2
Tony Romo: 90.5.........97.1
Matt Schaub: 90.7.......100.7
RG3: 102.4.................101.8
Peyton (reg): 105.8......94.9
Peyton (ply): 105.8.......88.3..........though it's 98.0 if you remove the noodle arm, back against the grain INT that Brady won't even think of throwing.

It should come as no surprise the Ravens went 0-5 ATS in the 5 regular season games before covering last week. The only real good game they played against a good QB was against Eli but Eli had a bad year and was terrible down the stretch. He completed last than 60% of his passes this year and finished 14th in QB rating.

As I said before, I had Baltimore in this game last season. Last year they were coming in under the radar off a bad game. This year they are coming in off one of the best games ever, they've got everyone rooting for Ray Lewis, the Flacco engine is revving up, Gronk concerns, and the memory of how they should have won last year still is fresh. But this year is completely different. Not just because of the Ravens situation but because the Patriots are better. Their no-huddle offense is faster this season and their run game is really solid on both sides of the ball. They have the #4 DVOA rush offense and #6 DVOA rush defense (after ranking 25th last year). The Pats true weakness is pass defense. And I admit it's a concern (if it wasn't I wouldn't have teased) but the Ravens are relying heavily on the big play down the field. If the O-line isn't quite up to par and the big plays aren't there (keep in mind NE has been Top 3 in INT for three straight years) then they won't win the game because there is too much to overcome in all the other areas.

GL Shrimp. I could be way off here and this isn't a huge play or anything (remember I teased em). It's just that there are two games left and not much else to talk about.


The rooting interest for me in this game, if you can separate financial and rooting interests, is with the Ravens for sure. It would be great to see these guys go into NE and knock em off for one more chance at a Super Bowl. I just think the odds are better that they don't considering the situation but I've been wrong plenty of times before.

i gotta thou parlayin that balti straight with the over. 7.1 to 1 payout

Webb's loss was huge to the Ravens...Graham has played much better recently....Brown #23 is the concern ...

The Oline is the missing link only together for 2 weeks...McKinney has been mauling guys for 3 weeks...Colts and Bronco's didn't sniff Flacco,and Pats have nobody as good as those pass rushers...A shootout is our chance...we know that...34-31 Ravens...

Ravens shot their load,,completely satisfied with the win last week..owner texts JH when score was 35-28 tells him he had a great season no matter what happens...they are playing with house money now, and the no huddle will kill the defense that has been on the field for a long time.

Completely satisfied.....are u phuckin high...put the glue down ...

 

Same garbage I heard last week

Are you comparing the Pats pass rush to the Broncos?  Give me a friggin break lol

lets remember that NE had ZERO sacks last week and had ZERO sacks when they Balty way back when.  While Brady will pick apart Balty's secondary, let's also remember that NE's secondary, outside of Talib, is pretty much garbage

gl mac i was fully expecting a huge write up and reasoning backing the falcons as the ultimate contrarian play of the last 2 seasons but your right the niners are just better bol i do like the teaser

I don't wanna say I have buyers remorse at the moment (though I did fire too early) but it is becoming increasingly apparent that the Niners are the squarest bet of the season. Not square in the sense everyone is on them but in that the line is 4 points higher than it would have been last week. SF played their best game of the year last week and ATL looked like everyone thinks they are: fraudulent. Betting inflated spreads is the squarest thing you can do and I've done it.

Square bets do win and I still believe the Niners are the better team and the cream will rise to the top but I can't help but shake my head as I open thread after thread and listen to everybody everywhere saying the Niners are gonna win in a laugher because they are the greatest thing since sliced bread and ATL sucks. I don't believe that to be the case. This is going to be a close game. If Kaepernick plays like he did against STL or SEA on the road (albeit much better D's) then Atlanta is going to win. I'm sensing a 24-20 type game here with SF's talent just winning out over a full 60 minutes. I still like the +3 in a teaser but what was a 60% feel a few couple days ago is down to about 55%.

I actually didn't think they played well at all. They gave up a pick 6, got a gift muffed punt at that Green Bay 10, and gave up a ton of yardage to Rodgers through the air. I actually think they a below average game, but people's only memory was of Kaeprnick running wild. The reason I like San Fran this week, is not because of how great they looked last week, its that they won comfortably last week, in spite of a poor defensive effort. I don't think that is going to happen two weeks in a row.

I would also add that I think the Ravens are getting 3 times more love than the Niners this week, if you look at this board. I think that is the squarest play of the week and I think that one loses BIG TIME.

Niners I'm not sure I agree there. SF's D really only gave up 17 points. 7 came via the Pick 6 and another 7 on a garbage time TD drive in a 21pt game with under 2 minutes left. The Packers also got 22% of their yardage on that garbage drive. Maybe the D didn't play their best (in the run game more so) but the offense was off the charts. Almost 30 1st downs, 600 yards, 7.7 yards per play, 62% on 3rd down, 75% in the redzone, and 38 minutes of possession is flat out dominating a football game.

Again, I still like the play but the bottom line is anyone betting SF in any capacity is buying them at a skyhigh price and that IMO is the squarest thing anyone can do. Quite frankly anyone (myself included) that bets on San Francisco this weekend deserves to lose even if people feel the matchup is overwhelmingly in favor of SF, which I believe it is.

But sometimes an occasion arises (such as an NFC Championship game) where you can make exceptions and buy high.