NFL Conference Championships

Also im on 49ers..so i agree, but ill take the Ravens and the points, and maybe ML...Snow favors Defense! No Gronk, and hardly a running game or Defense from NE!

bol andy

Good luck andy     

 

agree. and I did it. And lived to tell about it

Really impressed by the Ravens. I thought they'd be out of gas but obviously that wasn't the case. This team just hangs around and they hung around in the 1H when they weren't really playing well. The Pats had a chance to put em away and couldn't do it.



FWIW - Banged Ravens +5.5 as soon as the line opened. Won't count it on record or write a 3 part novel about it as the line has moved but this is a crazy number. Oddsmakers still using full season power ratings for the Ravens that mean absolutely nothing. I think I ranted on here a couple weeks ago about how teams don't really get "hot" in the playoffs they actually just get healthy. Well the Ravens are a textbook example, ravaged by injuries late in the year now they are at full health (minus one key player in Webb) and full season numbers/ratings are worthless.

Flacco is the AFC version of Eli Manning. Not the greatest passer and has some WTF moments but when push comes to shove he hangs in there really well and makes big plays and wins. Since Flacco became starter:

Flacco: 60.5 completion %, 7.08 YPA, 1.82-1 TD/INT ratio, 86.3 rating and 8-4 career playoff record.

Eli: 58.6 completion %, 7.07 YPA, 1.47-1 TD/INT ratio, 89.0 rating and 8-3 career playoff record.

Flacco is going to be hoisting the Lombardi trophy before he gets the respect he really deserves nationally.

I'm a guy who is big on emotion and character building through adversity. Ravens have gone through everything imaginable and it's clear there is something special going on there now. With that ALS guy giving speeches how can they lose? Should be a GREAT game. Much better than the physical beating SF would have put on the Pats. I think the Ravens keep doing their thing and find a way to win.

18/1  and 12/1 odds prior to the season...in harbaugh's we trust

love the balt play.   nothing going to stop this freight train now.

the points are a gift.  feels a lot like the giants/pats line last year.

Ravens just keep winning~ Should be a good Super Bowl!!!

Always a pleasure reading your threads, andy.  I think one of the most understated reasons for the Ravens late season success was moving Michael Oher to right tackle, and bringing McKinney out of Harbaugh's dog house, and putting him on the left side.  Their line is finally giving Flacco time to go through his progressions, and find the open receiver.  The majority of fans in Baltimore were absolutely crushing Flacco the first 3/4 of the year when he was inconsistent and making bad throws.  But the reason he was making bad decisions, was because the line play was absolutely horrid.  When he has time, he usually makes wise decisions.

Much of this season I have spent hating on the Ravens, and I truly believe it was because of the fans.  I defended Flacco all year, not on this board, but to the locals that live here.  You would be shocked if you heard how many times people in this city said they wanted Tyrod Taylor in there.  Just crazy talk.

Regardless, if the O-line keeps playing the way they have been, I think the Ravens win SU as well.  Give Flacco some time, and he will win games.  Appreciate the insight you've provided all year.  Good luck in the Super Bowl.

wow a curse meter set up on covers substituting in garbage for s***....too funny...somehow garbage doesn't cut it but you got the picture. 

If anyone is wondering I have completely flip-flopped on this game. Went the other way with SF -3.5 for 2 units. Obviously a 4 or 5 point win would be nice but after about 10 days of pondering this game I have concluded SF is the play.

The run the Ravens have been on is real nice and I still don't know if the power ratings reflect where they are as a team but the simple truth is San Francisco is better. At no point during the season have I thought Balitmore was better than SF. I love the adversity the Ravens have been through. I love their fight. I love their heart. I eat that stuff up when it comes to championship games because in these scenarios where we are at the apex and the talent is extremely close the more experienced, battled-tested team usually fights through the adversity and pressure and finds a way to win. The problem is I don't believe the talent is that close in this game. There is not one position on the field except for Kicker and Kick returner that the Ravens are better than San Fran. SF has the best defense, O-line, and run game not here in the Super Bowl but in the whole NFL. They've got an unflappable young QB who hasn't shown any signs he's going to gag up a game and if the coaching staff had any doubts they would not have risked an entire season on it.

As I said somewhere earlier in this thread SF has held really good offenses down which is the sign of a great D. They played far and away their worst game of the year in the NFC Championship where they were outgained by 100, lost 1st down battle, TOP, and the turnover battle and still came back from 17 down on the road. SF has won through dominance. The Ravens have relied on turnovers, injuries (Moreno + Talib greatly changed both games) and poor execution from their opposition. SF will stop the Ravens run game and Flacco is going to have to win it. It is highly unlikely the SF secondary plays as bad as it did against Atlanta because A. They have no track record of that. B. The Falcons receivers were making some unreal catches. C. The Ravens weapons are not as good. Boldin, Smith and Pitta are good players but they are not as good as Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez.

The older Ravens D is going to have problems with the SF speed. James, Kaepernick, and Davis are matchup nightmares. If the reports are true and Crabtree is matchup up against Cary Williams that is a huge edge for SF.

Bottom line is SF was the best team after Week 1 of the season and they are the better team now. The only way I see Baltimore winning is close. But I can see SF winning big and that to me says it all. Flacco is going to have to come up huge and Baltimore is going to have to win the turnover battle to win this game IMO.

Oh and I haven't even mentioned coaching. JIM is the best coach in the league hands down and not only that he has A+ coordinators.


Apologies for any typos, I am about to pass out.

andarmac99 you hit it on the nail with SF.  Their speed and coaching is tremendously overlooked and may be the most critical when evaluating this game.  Their speed sets them up for being the best tackling team in the NFL also.  Jim makes no mistake in pounding simple, fundamental notions in to his teams head.  DONT MISS TACKLES.  Excellent writeup. 

I am on 49ers - 42

Jerry, Dimndimn, Disco - Thanks guys been a fun season on the forums.


Disco - My initial gut reaction was Ravens no doubt. I thought the line was way off and it would be a close game. But I had a long time to think about this game and logic took over. I just think top to bottom SF is better. A close game late should favor the Ravens but I'm not sure it gets there. I'm thinking 27-17 SF.

One other angle I've been pondering just in the last day is the fact that Ray Lewis is a huge fraud. I can't believe how little play this "antler spray" story has got. It is absolutely OBVIOUS that Ray is juiced out of his mind. This antler spray contains the hormone normally found in the body once it converts HGH. Seeing old Ray up there denying everything about the story speaks volumes. This man is 37 years old and came back 10 weeks after completely tearing a muscle that usually takes 8 months to heal. Now he's flying around the field racking up tackles like he's 25? Are you kidding me? All this coming in games where his D is on the field 80+ plays a game.

Point is, the story is now out. Lewis is cheating. The whole god/heart/warrior/look how hard I worked to get back story is all complete BS. And Ray knows it. The story is out and more info/revelations will come out down the road. How can that not take a toll on him? He's knows he's been exposed and will be exposed much more down the road. There can't be a bigger distraction than that. It's not the same as the Teo story in terms of what happened but look at Teo: He had a huge cloud looming over him in the NCG and it showed up on the field. He was playing with a huge secret and behind a lie he knew he was about to get caught in.

One final point is I believe Ray has also passed his juice off to teammates in the past. All it takes is a couple of searches of Terrell Suggs' Achilles injury to start the year and your sh.it detector goes off. The man came back from a torn Achilles in 5 months when it takes most athletes of this caliber a full year. Check out the link below. It's comical how obvious it is these guys are juiced. They are going to be exposed and they know it too. I think that is a heavy burden which may diminish the whole psychological edge the Ravens may have had in this game.

https://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-10-23/sports/bs-sp-ravens-suggs-recovery-1024-20121023_1_terrell-suggs-achilles-quarterback-hits-and-one

Andy, there is a blowout looming tomorrow. Just too bad nobody sees it coming.

Great reversal. I believe you're on the right side now. Good luck. This Niner teams speed on defense reminds me of Jimmy Johnson's championship cowboy teams. Close game for a half but preacher Ray goes down by TKO in the second half. And I wholeheartedly agree with you on Ray juicing . Read Bill Simmons latest article on PEDs and Ray Lewis. He simply says its impossible to come back in 10 weeks from a fully torn tricep and play at this level at his age. It's a great article in general.

Achilles tendon injuries are one of the most devastating injuries an athlete can suffer; infact, it's probably worse than blowing out a knee. I was amazed how quickly Suggs came back from this injury. How about AP - the NFL's MVP a year after having a rotorooter job done on his knee. Yes - he tore an ACL and MCL! What a comeback! It makes me wonder if stem cells or something under the rader has something to do with this. Anyways, this stuff is rampant around the league. Good Luck with the game.

With ya today, Andy.

Have SF -3.5, -7.5, and -10.5.  49ers gonna be doing the hammer dance all over Baltimore!