To those that are asking about my score prediction for the cowboys niners game... I score prediction is just a byproduct of trying to come up with a spread winner. It is not intended to be an indicator of an over-under, a team over under, whether the score will be odd or even, or anything of the sort my 100% focus is on picking a spread winner by a certain amount. So you can take from my post that I have the cowboys winning by 7: nothing more. Doesn't mean I like the under, doesn't mean I like San Francisco under, doesn't mean I think Dallas will end on an odd score and San Francisco on an even score. It's just a median representation of how I've generally feel the game will go but the important takeaway is the spread at the winner.
Van- Your score predictions are much respected on here and I believe that's why people are always asking you for them. Last week you predicted a 7 point win by the Bengals with a final score of 23-16. The final was Bengals 24-17. You also predicted a 17 point win by the Cowboys over the Bucs at 38-21. The final was Cowboys 31-14. Pretty impressive stuff. Even what you mentioned about the Cowboys only punting 1.4 times in a median simulation. At one point in the game that looked like it could be accurate, and that was a pretty bold prediction. Had they not been up by so many late in the game, they probably wouldn't have punted more than 2 or 3 times.
I think that your score predictions are good enough that people can take them and use them to analyze other bets that they might want to make. Team totals, game totals and what not.
Again- nice job this season and thanks a bunch for all the good info and accurate picks. You are a great help to people on here that want to pay attention rather than argue. GL this weekend
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
To those that are asking about my score prediction for the cowboys niners game... I score prediction is just a byproduct of trying to come up with a spread winner. It is not intended to be an indicator of an over-under, a team over under, whether the score will be odd or even, or anything of the sort my 100% focus is on picking a spread winner by a certain amount. So you can take from my post that I have the cowboys winning by 7: nothing more. Doesn't mean I like the under, doesn't mean I like San Francisco under, doesn't mean I think Dallas will end on an odd score and San Francisco on an even score. It's just a median representation of how I've generally feel the game will go but the important takeaway is the spread at the winner.
Van- Your score predictions are much respected on here and I believe that's why people are always asking you for them. Last week you predicted a 7 point win by the Bengals with a final score of 23-16. The final was Bengals 24-17. You also predicted a 17 point win by the Cowboys over the Bucs at 38-21. The final was Cowboys 31-14. Pretty impressive stuff. Even what you mentioned about the Cowboys only punting 1.4 times in a median simulation. At one point in the game that looked like it could be accurate, and that was a pretty bold prediction. Had they not been up by so many late in the game, they probably wouldn't have punted more than 2 or 3 times.
I think that your score predictions are good enough that people can take them and use them to analyze other bets that they might want to make. Team totals, game totals and what not.
Again- nice job this season and thanks a bunch for all the good info and accurate picks. You are a great help to people on here that want to pay attention rather than argue. GL this weekend
There are equally intelligent yet ultra appreciative readers like me. I realized you were skilled and thoughtful years ago but your explanation last year at this time of the process really helped. You don’t just look at numbers, especially recent numbers but intangibles. Very rare to do both but in a game with emotional issues, you can’t ignore bad coaching, choking, etc
You explained you invested money and time. I am one who dies t have the time or desire to work that hard. But I love spirts and gambling. So thank you and realize there is gratitude for you and I hope that provides fuel for you to carry on. And if you need stock advice I got you brother
0
@vanzack
Just remember;
There are equally intelligent yet ultra appreciative readers like me. I realized you were skilled and thoughtful years ago but your explanation last year at this time of the process really helped. You don’t just look at numbers, especially recent numbers but intangibles. Very rare to do both but in a game with emotional issues, you can’t ignore bad coaching, choking, etc
You explained you invested money and time. I am one who dies t have the time or desire to work that hard. But I love spirts and gambling. So thank you and realize there is gratitude for you and I hope that provides fuel for you to carry on. And if you need stock advice I got you brother
@vanzack Must be annoying to have to explain every word you type to these boners..... If you have the time, Bills breakdown analysis, please good sir. Greatly appreciate the time you spend and value you bring to this forum. GL today and thankful for your work.
Writeup later today or early tomorrow.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by jhoss00:
@vanzack Must be annoying to have to explain every word you type to these boners..... If you have the time, Bills breakdown analysis, please good sir. Greatly appreciate the time you spend and value you bring to this forum. GL today and thankful for your work.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: To those that are asking about my score prediction for the cowboys niners game... I score prediction is just a byproduct of trying to come up with a spread winner. It is not intended to be an indicator of an over-under, a team over under, whether the score will be odd or even, or anything of the sort my 100% focus is on picking a spread winner by a certain amount. So you can take from my post that I have the cowboys winning by 7: nothing more. Doesn't mean I like the under, doesn't mean I like San Francisco under, doesn't mean I think Dallas will end on an odd score and San Francisco on an even score. It's just a median representation of how I've generally feel the game will go but the important takeaway is the spread at the winner. Van- Your score predictions are much respected on here and I believe that's why people are always asking you for them. Last week you predicted a 7 point win by the Bengals with a final score of 23-16. The final was Bengals 24-17. You also predicted a 17 point win by the Cowboys over the Bucs at 38-21. The final was Cowboys 31-14. Pretty impressive stuff. Even what you mentioned about the Cowboys only punting 1.4 times in a median simulation. At one point in the game that looked like it could be accurate, and that was a pretty bold prediction. Had they not been up by so many late in the game, they probably wouldn't have punted more than 2 or 3 times. I think that your score predictions are good enough that people can take them and use them to analyze other bets that they might want to make. Team totals, game totals and what not. Again- nice job this season and thanks a bunch for all the good info and accurate picks. You are a great help to people on here that want to pay attention rather than argue. GL this weekend
Thanks for this. I just wanted to kind of give a disclaimer that I put more effort in to spread predictions than actual score predictions... I know you understand.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: To those that are asking about my score prediction for the cowboys niners game... I score prediction is just a byproduct of trying to come up with a spread winner. It is not intended to be an indicator of an over-under, a team over under, whether the score will be odd or even, or anything of the sort my 100% focus is on picking a spread winner by a certain amount. So you can take from my post that I have the cowboys winning by 7: nothing more. Doesn't mean I like the under, doesn't mean I like San Francisco under, doesn't mean I think Dallas will end on an odd score and San Francisco on an even score. It's just a median representation of how I've generally feel the game will go but the important takeaway is the spread at the winner. Van- Your score predictions are much respected on here and I believe that's why people are always asking you for them. Last week you predicted a 7 point win by the Bengals with a final score of 23-16. The final was Bengals 24-17. You also predicted a 17 point win by the Cowboys over the Bucs at 38-21. The final was Cowboys 31-14. Pretty impressive stuff. Even what you mentioned about the Cowboys only punting 1.4 times in a median simulation. At one point in the game that looked like it could be accurate, and that was a pretty bold prediction. Had they not been up by so many late in the game, they probably wouldn't have punted more than 2 or 3 times. I think that your score predictions are good enough that people can take them and use them to analyze other bets that they might want to make. Team totals, game totals and what not. Again- nice job this season and thanks a bunch for all the good info and accurate picks. You are a great help to people on here that want to pay attention rather than argue. GL this weekend
Thanks for this. I just wanted to kind of give a disclaimer that I put more effort in to spread predictions than actual score predictions... I know you understand.
@vanzack Just remember; There are equally intelligent yet ultra appreciative readers like me. I realized you were skilled and thoughtful years ago but your explanation last year at this time of the process really helped. You don’t just look at numbers, especially recent numbers but intangibles. Very rare to do both but in a game with emotional issues, you can’t ignore bad coaching, choking, etc You explained you invested money and time. I am one who dies t have the time or desire to work that hard. But I love spirts and gambling. So thank you and realize there is gratitude for you and I hope that provides fuel for you to carry on. And if you need stock advice I got you brother
Agree and understand. And I very well might take you up on your offer one day!!
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
@vanzack Just remember; There are equally intelligent yet ultra appreciative readers like me. I realized you were skilled and thoughtful years ago but your explanation last year at this time of the process really helped. You don’t just look at numbers, especially recent numbers but intangibles. Very rare to do both but in a game with emotional issues, you can’t ignore bad coaching, choking, etc You explained you invested money and time. I am one who dies t have the time or desire to work that hard. But I love spirts and gambling. So thank you and realize there is gratitude for you and I hope that provides fuel for you to carry on. And if you need stock advice I got you brother
Agree and understand. And I very well might take you up on your offer one day!!
Hey Van what a refreshing read for a change..One of the best I've seen in our over Two Decades here..Very refreshing and insightful so hopefully the folks who will carry the banner for the next 20+ years will read and then re-read..I certainly won't be one as I've now surpassed 50 years in sports investing and must admit it certainly turned from a hobby gambling to a very profitable career..I took my lumps and bruises as most of us have but like you, was never too proud to admit my mistakes and try to learn from them as well as many knowledgeable people along the way..I must give members like you, Train, Mac and others the respect you all deserve for posting week in and week out sharing your experience with this forum and trying to keep it the way it was way back in the "Wagerline" days..( For those who don't know that was covers before they became covers)..
Will never forget the days of the Vegas conventions or those who walked the halls here before passing on..Also will never forget how Train would give out a Dog Parlay paying a Jillion to one and some folks wanting him to win one every week..Ahh yes Covers and WL will always be etched in memory for the sites they once were before all the negative attitudes started rolling in..Those were and can be the days again when members realize we're not in a competition against each other but here to help each other make money and have fun doing it..Train already said this but I don't believe it can be said enough..Sorry for the long post in your thread my brother and for my walk down memory lane..I thank you guys in advance for helping to make those memories for me and only hope I'll be around for years to come but got to face that age is catching up to me..
Now unfortunately I'm going to respectfully disagree with a few of the selections that there seems to be much love for..Bet you didn't see that coming..Lol..These are just opinions and not meant as any official plays or advice..
NFC Playoffs;
Philly : I like even tho I was on the G-Men last week
Dallas : I just can't agree with here..49'er offense has been rolling along with over 38 pts. averaged their L 4 games..These 2 D's have been ranked 1 and 2 this season at Football Outsiders in DVOA..49'ers averaged giving up just 16 pts at home this season and Dallas has played to the Under 6 of 9 games on the road..Both of their strengths have come from running the ball which may be a task vs. a Niner D only giving up 3.4 YPC..I don't think Dak and his WR's have played to last years form and if they want to here they have to be able to run..If they do then they may handle the 49er DB's..Dallas can't afford to get behind here with Purdys' fairytale story..McCarthy is stubborn and sticks to his game plan usually not making necessary adjustments..Lastly Jerry tweeting on the 16'th if you're in the stadium and can kick c'mon down we got a jersey for you..
Jags ; on them last week but was still the wrong side and only the biggest comeback in Playoff history along with the biggest meltdown gave me the win..Pretty much 2 miracle games in a row got them here and as much as I like Lawrence just can't see them staying with Mahomes and Co..So a fumble return vs. Tenn and last week where they did nothing offensively for 6 of 8 quarters got them here and just can't see another miracle against the Chiefs..
Buffy/Cinn no opinion..
Best of luck Van to you and everyone else with all your wagers..
jj
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Hey Van what a refreshing read for a change..One of the best I've seen in our over Two Decades here..Very refreshing and insightful so hopefully the folks who will carry the banner for the next 20+ years will read and then re-read..I certainly won't be one as I've now surpassed 50 years in sports investing and must admit it certainly turned from a hobby gambling to a very profitable career..I took my lumps and bruises as most of us have but like you, was never too proud to admit my mistakes and try to learn from them as well as many knowledgeable people along the way..I must give members like you, Train, Mac and others the respect you all deserve for posting week in and week out sharing your experience with this forum and trying to keep it the way it was way back in the "Wagerline" days..( For those who don't know that was covers before they became covers)..
Will never forget the days of the Vegas conventions or those who walked the halls here before passing on..Also will never forget how Train would give out a Dog Parlay paying a Jillion to one and some folks wanting him to win one every week..Ahh yes Covers and WL will always be etched in memory for the sites they once were before all the negative attitudes started rolling in..Those were and can be the days again when members realize we're not in a competition against each other but here to help each other make money and have fun doing it..Train already said this but I don't believe it can be said enough..Sorry for the long post in your thread my brother and for my walk down memory lane..I thank you guys in advance for helping to make those memories for me and only hope I'll be around for years to come but got to face that age is catching up to me..
Now unfortunately I'm going to respectfully disagree with a few of the selections that there seems to be much love for..Bet you didn't see that coming..Lol..These are just opinions and not meant as any official plays or advice..
NFC Playoffs;
Philly : I like even tho I was on the G-Men last week
Dallas : I just can't agree with here..49'er offense has been rolling along with over 38 pts. averaged their L 4 games..These 2 D's have been ranked 1 and 2 this season at Football Outsiders in DVOA..49'ers averaged giving up just 16 pts at home this season and Dallas has played to the Under 6 of 9 games on the road..Both of their strengths have come from running the ball which may be a task vs. a Niner D only giving up 3.4 YPC..I don't think Dak and his WR's have played to last years form and if they want to here they have to be able to run..If they do then they may handle the 49er DB's..Dallas can't afford to get behind here with Purdys' fairytale story..McCarthy is stubborn and sticks to his game plan usually not making necessary adjustments..Lastly Jerry tweeting on the 16'th if you're in the stadium and can kick c'mon down we got a jersey for you..
Jags ; on them last week but was still the wrong side and only the biggest comeback in Playoff history along with the biggest meltdown gave me the win..Pretty much 2 miracle games in a row got them here and as much as I like Lawrence just can't see them staying with Mahomes and Co..So a fumble return vs. Tenn and last week where they did nothing offensively for 6 of 8 quarters got them here and just can't see another miracle against the Chiefs..
Buffy/Cinn no opinion..
Best of luck Van to you and everyone else with all your wagers..
Really enjoyable thread. Shout-out to Vanzack for years ago referring me to a solid reliable proxy out in Vegas for the Super Contest. I want to believe the G-men keep it going, but that Philly defense is the real deal and I trust them to play a major role in covering tonight. Cheers everyone best of luck with your plays.
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Really enjoyable thread. Shout-out to Vanzack for years ago referring me to a solid reliable proxy out in Vegas for the Super Contest. I want to believe the G-men keep it going, but that Philly defense is the real deal and I trust them to play a major role in covering tonight. Cheers everyone best of luck with your plays.
I always wait to read it before making a play to see if you may have seen something I missed. It’s always great to be on the right side of a back door cover
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Van
Thank you for your analysis.
I always wait to read it before making a play to see if you may have seen something I missed. It’s always great to be on the right side of a back door cover
Just that the Eagles should score A LOT. I have them at an average of 1.9 punts in my sims, and they are very efficient with TD / FGs against a very poor defense.
The Giants will get their share. Eagles score a lot, Giants score medium.
Eagles 38 Giants 20
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
No time for an Eagles writeup....
Just that the Eagles should score A LOT. I have them at an average of 1.9 punts in my sims, and they are very efficient with TD / FGs against a very poor defense.
The Giants will get their share. Eagles score a lot, Giants score medium.
Really enjoyable thread. Shout-out to Vanzack for years ago referring me to a solid reliable proxy out in Vegas for the Super Contest. I want to believe the G-men keep it going, but that Philly defense is the real deal and I trust them to play a major role in covering tonight. Cheers everyone best of luck with your plays.
Good to see you around!
GL tonight.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan52:
Really enjoyable thread. Shout-out to Vanzack for years ago referring me to a solid reliable proxy out in Vegas for the Super Contest. I want to believe the G-men keep it going, but that Philly defense is the real deal and I trust them to play a major role in covering tonight. Cheers everyone best of luck with your plays.
Van Thank you for your analysis. I always wait to read it before making a play to see if you may have seen something I missed. It’s always great to be on the right side of a back door cover
Yeah - I thought we really deserved that.
I would make the same bet again next week in the same situation.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by SteelUbaldo:
Van Thank you for your analysis. I always wait to read it before making a play to see if you may have seen something I missed. It’s always great to be on the right side of a back door cover
Yeah - I thought we really deserved that.
I would make the same bet again next week in the same situation.
No time for an Eagles writeup.... Just that the Eagles should score A LOT. I have them at an average of 1.9 punts in my sims, and they are very efficient with TD / FGs against a very poor defense. The Giants will get their share. Eagles score a lot, Giants score medium. Eagles 38 Giants 20
Thanks van!
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@vanzack
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
No time for an Eagles writeup.... Just that the Eagles should score A LOT. I have them at an average of 1.9 punts in my sims, and they are very efficient with TD / FGs against a very poor defense. The Giants will get their share. Eagles score a lot, Giants score medium. Eagles 38 Giants 20
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