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*** NFL Divisional Round Playoffs *** Panthers + Chargers

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Posted: #1

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers

In NFL history it has been almost non-existant for a team to reach the conference championship game 3 years in a row. SF is a physical team who's been getting everyone's best shot all year long. This team is physically running on fumes, they were lucky to escape against GB's porous defense, but will face a much stiffer test this week. As much of a physical team SF is, they actually lost the battle in the trenches last weekend. Frank Gore only averaged 3.3 yards per carry. It was the legs of Kap that saved the day. The Panthers have a front 7 that is far better than GB's. They sacked Kap 6 times in the last matchup, and contained his scrambling abilities very well. I also love the spot CAR is in this weekend. They are the lone team in the playoffs left that noone has given a shot to win it all. Hell, when was the last time there's been a home underdog in the divisional round? They already beat SF once yet are home underdogs off a bye week, they are being completely disrespected. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers won by 10 here.

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Last year Peyton took his 13-3 best record in the league broncos to the playoffs only to get ousted by the ravens in the first round. This year, he again not only led his team to a phenomenal regular season record, but breaks Drew Brees single season total yardarge record and Tom Brady's single season TD record all in the same season. Statistically, he also has one of the best offenses in NFL history. Now he goes up against a 9-7 charger team at home. Peyton has never needed to win a playoff game more than he does now. A QB with 8 one and done playoff trips who is already looked at as a choker now has more pressure on him than ever before. Rivers owns Manning head2head and is playing with absolutely nothing to lose as he wasn't even supposed to get into the big dance in the first place. If your holding a Broncos future ticket, might as well rip it up now. Rivers is not losing this game.

  • Panthers ML
  • Chargers +10

Playoff YTD: 2-0-1

I am also playing the Chargers ML but won't count it in my record.
 
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Posted: #3
You sound like an idiot saying "rip up your ticket now, cuz rivers isn't losing this game."

Even though I like SD to win SU, there is a very LARGE possibility Denver blows them out.
 
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Posted: #4
SF lost the battle in the trenches last week? You know nothing dude! Rodgers was getting pressured on every play and Gore's YPC wasn't great but he picked up every big first down they needed. True that Carolina's defense is much tougher then GB's but GB has a better offense to offer compared to what SF will face this week. Cam had a great year but he doesn't have the weapons on the outside to win this game especially by DD like you "could see" Carolina will have to grind clock and attempt to win this thing in a low scorer. Won't happen. Carolina allowed some success from the SF offense early in the loss earlier this year but losing Davis to a concussion in the 2nd quarter hampered the already hampered Niners at that point. A healthy Davis and a healthy Crabtree will open things up all over the field. Quentin Mikell will get tested this week and Carolina's front 7 is good but the corners can be had. SF wins 24-17
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by Frank the Bank:

SF lost the battle in the trenches last week? You know nothing dude! Rodgers was getting pressured on every play and Gore's YPC wasn't great but he picked up every big first down they needed. True that Carolina's defense is much tougher then GB's but GB has a better offense to offer compared to what SF will face this week. Cam had a great year but he doesn't have the weapons on the outside to win this game especially by DD like you "could see" Carolina will have to grind clock and attempt to win this thing in a low scorer. Won't happen. Carolina allowed some success from the SF offense early in the loss earlier this year but losing Davis to a concussion in the 2nd quarter hampered the already hampered Niners at that point. A healthy Davis and a healthy Crabtree will open things up all over the field. Quentin Mikell will get tested this week and Carolina's front 7 is good but the corners can be had. SF wins 24-17

 

Make that SF 27 Car 17

 
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Posted: #6
It is interesting the different takes people can have on a game.  That is why this business is so tough.  


I see us both knowing the NFL pretty well the last couple years (proven with our covers posting) and many plays we share the same stance on, but not this 1.  

You say the Niners are running on fumes while I see them slowly getting healthier throughout the year with key players being fresh as daisies like Crabtree and Aldon Smith and relishing on the road warrior role.   As Harbaugh said this isn't their 1st rodeo meanwhile it is for Carolina with the QB/coach combo.  The Niner weapons are superior to the Panthers at this point and IMO that is what will hold this Panther team back until they make an upgrade like getting a Boldin.  Lesser teams, without a doubt have no business winning 3 weeks in a row on the road in the fashion they have had.  This team is different obviously just my opinion but vegas seems like they agree with me (not that that always means the outcome).  

Anyway, good luck to you.  
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:

It is interesting the different takes people can have on a game.  That is why this business is so tough.  


I see us both knowing the NFL pretty well the last couple years (proven with our covers posting) and many plays we share the same stance on, but not this 1.  

You say the Niners are running on fumes while I see them slowly getting healthier throughout the year with key players being fresh as daisies like Crabtree and Aldon Smith and relishing on the road warrior role.   As Harbaugh said this isn't their 1st rodeo meanwhile it is for Carolina with the QB/coach combo.  The Niner weapons are superior to the Panthers at this point and IMO that is what will hold this Panther team back until they make an upgrade like getting a Boldin.  Lesser teams, without a doubt have no business winning 3 weeks in a row on the road in the fashion they have had.  This team is different obviously just my opinion but vegas seems like they agree with me (not that that always means the outcome).  

Anyway, good luck to you.  

1rst rodeo yes, but they have no pressure. They are underdogs and noone expects them to win this game. I know the Panthers barely won last matchup against the 49ers when they were missing key players but that was in SF, CAR plays very well at home. As for Vegas, they will be begging for a Panther win here. Not only is SF the most bet team this weekend, but SF and SEA have more Future Tickets pending than any other team in the NFC.

 
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Posted: #8
Nice write up!
 
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I can't argue with any of that.  There is always 2 sides to this.  I don't think their is much pressure on the Niners either as their just making road trip after road trip balling so I don't take into any stock in that pressure angle for this game (unlike the Broncos as you have stated).  

I will admit though, normally the majority of my plays I would be on Carolina in this spot with the travel to rest ratio & public % ratios with a team feeling slighted. My eyes are just telling me the Niners are getting shiot together at the right time once again and they find ways to win.  Harbaugh is easy to hate without being a Niner fan, but he is a great coach there is no 2 ways about that.  I will pay to see him lose 2 in a row to the same team here.  


Lets .  


 
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Posted: #10
 
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Posted: #11
Line dropping on both
 
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Posted: #12
Not sure why everyone's sleeping on the panthers, going to be a coming out party for them this weekend
 
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Posted: #13
Def with ya on the Chargers. Slight lean on Panthers. Only thing that kind of worries me is Harbaugh always finds a way to get his team the W. Either way good luck this weekend Cap. Keep up the excellent work! 
 
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Posted: #14
Agree on both ... Carolina went into SF  and beat them a few weeks ago. Only thing scares me about Carolina is Cam. He has to have his best game. Kapernick will show he played his behind off in GB. Cam has never been in this position. SD .. this line is ridiculous is a division game. 
 
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Posted: #15
HI LeagueCapper, what do you think about other 2 games???
 
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Posted: #16
I was on Panthers when they won SU @ Candlestick.  I thought they had a chance to win on the road, regular season, against the 49ers because of how well the Panthers front seven was playing and Cam Newton was playing.  This time, in the playoffs and the way the 49ers are playing, I'm on the 49ers.  Just too many weapons, more experience, better motivating, playing well, on a streak, on the road.  They're not the number one seed so they know they have to play well to get to the big stage.  Panthers just don't have that same edge coming into this game.
 
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Posted: #17
That Green Bay game might as well have been played on the moon. If you are gauging where the Niners are based on their performance in that game then you should ask yourself this, how would your panthers have faired under those conditions? Hell, they barely beat Atlanta in a game they had to have and Rodgers is twice the quarterback Matty Ice is. You are a good capper but I think you are way off here. Or at least I hope you are.
 
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Posted: #18
Let me also add, for all our conspiracy theorists out there, Vegas is not the only player with a stake in the outcome of this game. The NFL, which is a multi billion dollar business, also has an interest in the outcome. I don't know about you, but I think they would prefer to see the Niners in the championship game over the Panthers. 
 
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Posted: #19
You've capped the San Fran game all wrong. This game will come down to experience. San Fran actually rolls here. Won't even be close. Frank Gore won't have a good game against that Carolina front 7 but he won't need to. Expect at least 3 Carolina turnovers as niners pull away late. 

Some games come along every so often that u don't overthink. Fcuk week off, fcuk home field. Carolina doesn't have the experience to win a game of this magnitude. You think they have no pressure! They don't regular make the playoffs. Lose at home and all that hard work has been for nothing. Carolina are the nfcs Bengals. Always flatter to deceive..niners roll here
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by wmcintyre:

Def with ya on the Chargers. Slight lean on Panthers. Only thing that kind of worries me is Harbaugh always finds a way to get his team the W. Either way good luck this weekend Cap. Keep up the excellent work! 

Harbaugh is a helluva coach, i have to fade him here though.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:

You've capped the San Fran game all wrong. This game will come down to experience. San Fran actually rolls here. Won't even be close. Frank Gore won't have a good game against that Carolina front 7 but he won't need to. Expect at least 3 Carolina turnovers as niners pull away late. 

Some games come along every so often that u don't overthink. Fcuk week off, fcuk home field. Carolina doesn't have the experience to win a game of this magnitude. You think they have no pressure! They don't regular make the playoffs. Lose at home and all that hard work has been for nothing. Carolina are the nfcs Bengals. Always flatter to deceive..niners roll here

Panthers have nothing to lose. There underdogs playing the NFC champs of last year. Noone will cry if they lose, it will still go down as a remarkable season for them. Also the Panthers have been dominant at home this year, only loss I believe was against the Seahawks by 5 in a game that was lost on the final drive. The 49ers have beaten all crap teams on the road this year:

Rams, Titans, Jaguars, Redskins, Bucs.

They beat the Cardinals and Packers but both games only by 3. I understand all the love on SF this weekend, really I do. But I think they'll get spanked.
 
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Posted: #22

ALL DOGS in play this weekend.

Since 2006 divisional weekend dogs ATS 18-10, SUP 13-15  and with line more than 7 ATS 9-4 and SUP 6-7

SDG comes out of CINCY with close to 200 yards rushing and no turnovers. That seems like a pretty good formula for a dog getting sizable points. The last six in this series for SDG are margins of +5, -3, -11, -7, -8, +7 with only one game landing above the current number a game where SDG turned the ball over six times - I don't see that happening this week.

NOR has a shot, and the current line should be closer to 6.0 in my opinion, but Brees MUST play better. He was pretty bad in the first half while missing Sproles on a sideline route early while manned up against a LB and throwing two picks deep in PHILLY territory. He took points off the board. I like the way NOR ran the ball against an EAGLE front 7 that was close to the top of the league in stopping the run and vice-versa the SAINTS did a great job against the EAGLES running game. In the last 78 games Payton has been a head coach the SAINTS have lost by more than 7 8 times with two of those being in week 17 meaningless games. SEATTLE's offense isn't exactly tearing things up right now averaging 19.3 points per game. Good luck going forward.

 
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Posted: #23

Carolina's defense averaging 12.0 ppg against this year at home and I see some +3's out there.

People say how bad NOR is on the road but in the last two games away from home they lost to CAR on the last drive of the game and beat Philly in the playoffs. Still Bree's TD-INT ratio on the road is +2 which isn't even close to the numbers he puts up at home. If Brees plays well ... ?

 
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Posted: #24
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the last time you were selling the Panthers like this they got spanked hard!
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers

In NFL history it has been almost non-existant for a team to reach the conference championship game 3 years in a row.



Sure makes it hard to read your post when your first sentence is DEAD WRONG! Just looking at the NFC Dallas went 4x twice and even Philly did it 4x https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFC_Championship_Game
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