I like Philly tonight only at +3. It was possible earlier in the week, but I didnt get it - and now it looks very unlikely so it will be a pass.
Other games. Will post early even though I don't have bets on all of these yet. Will describe line considerations if any.
Wash -3 (-115)
Buff / Mia over 41.5 (every Buff home game has gone over this year, I like the over anyway even without that stat)
New Orleans (if you can get -2.5 at a reasonable price)
Carolina (if you get +3 at a reasonable price)
Minny (at +7 ev or better)
Jax +5 (painful - Jax is almost always determined by Bortles turnovers - but if they score 14 I calculate they have a 85% chance to cover - bet and dont watch)
Cle +5.5 (see Jax)
Raiders -3.5 (totally square - but I cant pass up the fact that I am getting Raiders scoring 35+ in most simulations and I am only giving 3.5. This is the one that will lose and I will feel like an idiot)
Balt +5
Broncos (at 3.5 or better)
Cowboys -7 (see raiders)
GL all. Happy Holidays.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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I like Philly tonight only at +3. It was possible earlier in the week, but I didnt get it - and now it looks very unlikely so it will be a pass.
Other games. Will post early even though I don't have bets on all of these yet. Will describe line considerations if any.
Wash -3 (-115)
Buff / Mia over 41.5 (every Buff home game has gone over this year, I like the over anyway even without that stat)
New Orleans (if you can get -2.5 at a reasonable price)
Carolina (if you get +3 at a reasonable price)
Minny (at +7 ev or better)
Jax +5 (painful - Jax is almost always determined by Bortles turnovers - but if they score 14 I calculate they have a 85% chance to cover - bet and dont watch)
Cle +5.5 (see Jax)
Raiders -3.5 (totally square - but I cant pass up the fact that I am getting Raiders scoring 35+ in most simulations and I am only giving 3.5. This is the one that will lose and I will feel like an idiot)
Good to see you posting. How is your NFL season going so far.
Great year. Mostly because I have been lucky and on the right side of tight games. Not unlike blackjack - where the amount of wins on doubles and splits usually determines profitability - NFL is really all about getting the extra half point or 10 cents here or there and getting good fortune because of it.
This season has been very good to me on those .5 point wins vs the .5 point losses.
I wish I would have played the supercontest this year (first year in the last 3 I havent, just because of the stupid entry window from July to mid Sept that the Westgate imposes) because I would be in the top 30.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:
Good to see you posting. How is your NFL season going so far.
Great year. Mostly because I have been lucky and on the right side of tight games. Not unlike blackjack - where the amount of wins on doubles and splits usually determines profitability - NFL is really all about getting the extra half point or 10 cents here or there and getting good fortune because of it.
This season has been very good to me on those .5 point wins vs the .5 point losses.
I wish I would have played the supercontest this year (first year in the last 3 I havent, just because of the stupid entry window from July to mid Sept that the Westgate imposes) because I would be in the top 30.
I like Philly tonight only at +3. It was possible earlier in the week, but I didnt get it - and now it looks very unlikely so it will be a pass.
Other games. Will post early even though I don't have bets on all of these yet. Will describe line considerations if any.
Wash -3 (-115)
Buff / Mia over 41.5 (every Buff home game has gone over this year, I like the over anyway even without that stat)
New Orleans (if you can get -2.5 at a reasonable price)
Carolina (if you get +3 at a reasonable price)
Minny (at +7 ev or better)
Jax +5 (painful - Jax is almost always determined by Bortles turnovers - but if they score 14 I calculate they have a 85% chance to cover - bet and dont watch)
Cle +5.5 (see Jax)
Raiders -3.5 (totally square - but I cant pass up the fact that I am getting Raiders scoring 35+ in most simulations and I am only giving 3.5. This is the one that will lose and I will feel like an idiot)
Balt +5
Broncos (at 3.5 or better)
Cowboys -7 (see raiders)
GL all. Happy Holidays.
BOL Partner!
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I like Philly tonight only at +3. It was possible earlier in the week, but I didnt get it - and now it looks very unlikely so it will be a pass.
Other games. Will post early even though I don't have bets on all of these yet. Will describe line considerations if any.
Wash -3 (-115)
Buff / Mia over 41.5 (every Buff home game has gone over this year, I like the over anyway even without that stat)
New Orleans (if you can get -2.5 at a reasonable price)
Carolina (if you get +3 at a reasonable price)
Minny (at +7 ev or better)
Jax +5 (painful - Jax is almost always determined by Bortles turnovers - but if they score 14 I calculate they have a 85% chance to cover - bet and dont watch)
Cle +5.5 (see Jax)
Raiders -3.5 (totally square - but I cant pass up the fact that I am getting Raiders scoring 35+ in most simulations and I am only giving 3.5. This is the one that will lose and I will feel like an idiot)
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