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Hello guys, this is Professor MJ, I’m really excited about this weekend’s games which will determine who will make it to the Super Bowl. Last week our picks were 1-2-1, so our record in the playoffs is now 3-4-1. As I said before the postseason began, I did not necessarily expect great results since I usually don’t make picks on every single game, because I’d rather choose the ones that provide the most value. But it can still be fun to give it a try, though!
Without further ado, here is my analysis of both Conference Championship games!
PICK #1: New England Patriots -8.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Patriots have beaten the spread on 9 of their past 10 games, so it’s hard to pick against them. As a matter of fact, according to Jason Logan from Covers.com, the Pats have covered the chalk 57.5% of the time over the past 10 years, which is amazing. If the rumours are true that there is some dissension among Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, we did not see any impact on the field last week against the Titans, as the Pats easily handled them at Gillette Stadium.
One of my arguments in favor of New England is similar to last week when justifying my pick on the Pats against the Titans. Jacksonville pulled off a great upset in Pittsburgh last week, and that might have been their version of the Super Bowl. Deep down inside, they might feel like they’ve already accomplished something great.
New England also has much more playoff experience; they have been through Conference Championship games before, whereas Blake Bortles and Leonard Fournette haven’t. Can you believe it will be the 7th consecutive year that the Pats make it to the AFC Championship game?
I really love what the Jags defense has done this year and it would make things interesting if they could bottle up the high-powered Patriots offense, but it won’t be easy. They forced key turnovers in Pittsburgh last week, but keep in mind that they still ended up allowing 545 total yards.
I was super impressed by the way Jacksonville handled the situation with the lead last week. You would expect them to try to run the ball and play conservatively to run out the clock, but they knew how dangerous the Steelers could be so they kept throwing some passes and it paid off big-time. I really tip my hat off to their coaching staff.
Tom Brady injured his right hand during practice this week, but it’s considered a minor injury and it should not affect him this Sunday. Speaking of injuries, another reason why I am leaning towards New England is because star running back Leonard Fournette aggravated an ankle injury in Pittsburgh last week. He left the game, and he was much less effective when he came back. They need him in top form for the Jags to have any chance of winning this match.
Even though it may not be super relevant from a betting perspective, I just want to point out that New England has won its last seven meetings with the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s last win over the Pats occurred back in 1999.
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