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NFL PLAYOFFS...........................................................2018/2019

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Posted: #1
POWER RATINGS I..........................................

pass heavy PR, gives more wieght to passing and counts offense and defense equally. Uses end of year stats and measures how much a team out-plays it's opp in each area.

1. Bears 10.5
2 Saints 7.98
3 KC       7.97
4 Seahawks  7.54
5 LAC       6.6
6 Pats       6.01
7 Texans    6
8  Rams     5.09
9  Ravens   4.43.................full season
10  Colts      1.53
11    Cowboys    1.16
12 Eagles         1.02


MY LINES............................................

Bears -12.48 over Eagles
Seahawks - 3.38 over Boys
Ravens -.83 over LAC
Texans -7.47 over Colts

we have a play with a 6 pt diff to closing line.
 
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Posted: #2
Interesting that in a pass heavy PR it is the Bears that lead the league by quite a BIT.

Not one of the big 3 passing, scoring offensive machines we saw this season.

we have 1 play at this time, Bears over Eagles. line is dropping towards Seahawks so likely no play in that game.

let's wait out the line .
 
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Posted: #3
POWER RATINGS II..............................................................

PR II is more balance heavy PR , gives more weight to rushing and TO then other websites say they are worth, gives extra credit for better defense and offenses that don't turn the ball over.  Is based on common denominators of past SB Champs.

 PR II uses the ave of each week, not end of season, seems to work much better. a few big weeks can really boost a teams rating.

1 Ravens 14.17 .............in  Jackson's games only
1 Tevans 9.7
2 Bears 9.43
3 Saints 7.77
4 Rams 7.71
5  Ravens 7.28......................in all games 
6  Seahawks 7.15
7 KC 6.74
8 Pats 6.32
9 LAC 5.08
10 Cowboys 1.87
11 Colts 1.44
12 Eagles (-.78)


MY LINES............................................

Bears -13.21 over Eagles
Seahawks -2.28 over Boys
Texans -11.26 over Colts
Ravens -5.2 over LAC .............FULL SEASON
Ravens -12.09 over LAC............With Jacksom


we have a play with a 6 pt diff to closing line

we have 2 plays on Bears and Texans and a possible play on Ravens using only Jackson's games.


Interesting that Texans actually finished no 1 over the entire season just ahead of the Bears. I never did run the Texans rating untill after season ended as I did not think any team could catch those other top teams. Won't matter but just interesting.

Ravens in Jackson's game would finish no. 1 in many years, a rating over 15 would be considered historically great, think 85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 92 Cowboys, 98 Broncos all teams that rolled their opponents by big margins in playoffs  on their way to A SB win.

That put in perspective how incredible this run with Jackson is, they didn't get to 15 and they did it over only 7 games not a full season so Ravens might be risky but a team this strong is to me  worth the risk.

This is to good of an oppurtunity to back a team could be the best team at an incredible price. You only have this type oppurtunity every blue moon, we won't pass it up here but will tread carefully and lower out plays..

 
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Posted: #4
OUR FAVORITE TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL..........................

The Bears.....................................


19 of our  past 22 favorites have made the championship game in the 4 sports we follow with 15 of the 19 winning the title.


 
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Posted: #5
BONUS POINTS METHOD.............................................

bounos points uses key stats like yards per point  that I can't seem to work into the other PR's and give their true value, so I came up with this method.

Seems to be a good PR by itself but I am learning how to use it better as well.  We don't use this method to get our favorite but it helps to support plays and /or discourage plays.



1. Saints 10.5
2 Bears 10.27
3  Rams 9.56
4 Ravens 9.55..................full season
5 Pats 8.23
6 LAC 7.34
7 KC 7.11
8 Colts 6.93
9  Texans 6.3
10 Seahawks 4.65
11 Boys 1.46
12 Eagles 1.26


we have a play with a 4.5 difference to closing line

MY ,LINES......................................

Bears -12.01 over  Eagles
Seahawks -.19 over Boys
Ravens -5.21 over LAC
Texans -2.37 over Colts


we have 1 play on the Bears at this time.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

OUR FAVORITE TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL..........................

The Bears.....................................


19 of our  past 22 favorites have made the championship game in the 4 sports we follow with 15 of the 19 winning the title.



Music to my ears. 
 
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Posted: #7
What is very interesting having 3 methods which use different stats and even the same stats carry different weight is that it will expose weaknesses in some teams.

Look at the Bears, no matter how you measure them they remain at the top of the league, in either 1st or 2cd place. That is overall balance right there.

Look at KC, 3RD in pass heavy rating basically tied for 2cd but then they drop big time to 7th  when measuring defense and other things


Saints are not bad themselves finishing 1st, 2cd and 3rd. 

If the Bears don't win the SB I suspect the Saints will or the Ravens.

I think the Bears are a great oppurtunity as well to win the NFC and the SB, A wc round team as the best team does not come around very often and the odds are very good backing the best teams at a incredible great price.

Most years at the end of season you'd get only around even money to maybe +120  +140 to back the best team , even can lay -110 or -120 or more.

This season the bye teams with the best records rank very low comparing to teams in the past  , that fits a more surprise team winning that would not be amoung the favorites

and a possible for the first time 2 teams from the WC Round making the SB, you'd expect that in a down year for the top teams and/or from stronger WC round teams.

It will be very interesting to see if our PR's can do it again  with a WC round team with much higher odds .



Here's to a successful playoffs for everyone............................
 
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Posted: #8
Bears to win SB +1050 --- 2 units to win 21 units
Bears to win NFC +500 --- 4  units to win 20 units units

Ravens to win SB +1800 --- 1 unit to win `18 units
Ravens to win AFC  +800 --- 2 units to win 16 units 
 
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Posted: #9
Bears/Ravens SB Matchup +4000 --- 1 unit to win 40 units
 
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Posted: #10
Could of had that SB Matchup at +8000 last week. They did not have this play at the local William Hill run book at the casino.

Interesting they did not have any SB Matchups. William Hill in Vegas almost certainly would have those plays I would think .
 
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Posted: #11

Awesome write up! an_cheersmy guess for SB Matchup is Texans vs Rams with Rams taking it but after reading this write up,  i see how the saints could very well be the champs this yr. So many possibilities. I'm tagging along with ya on the Bears to win hoping if not Rams, Bears-- alotttta good competition in the NFC this year

 
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Posted: #12
CLOSE WINS..............................................................

Close wins are not a good thing, close wins are not repeatable.

The team with the most 1 score close wins is...........................how bout those Cowboys, 9 close wins to only 3 close losses.

They lead the league with 9 , the next best team has 6, well back of Dallas.

Dallas's +6 margin leads the league, next is Rams +5 and LAC +5

The biggest difference of any game this weekend is Dallas/Seattle with Seahawks having 5 close wins to 6 close losses = (-1).

That is a huge 7 game difference , you won't find such a huge difference in close wins between 2 teams very often

Next is LAC by 6 over Ravens who have only 3 close wins but 4 close losses = (-1) .

LAC were challenging for the no. 1 seed , with 6 close wins to only 1 close loss, had they gotten just a tad more unlucky in close wins  they'd be sitting at 10-6 and had the Ravens gotten just a tad luckier they'd be the team at 12-4 and challenging for the no. 1 seed.

The 2 other games are seperated by only a 2 game difference and a 1 GAME DIFFERENCE.


Based on close wins we'd have a play on Seahawks and Ravens.

Be back later with some history and records of past close wins playoff games.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

POWER RATINGS II..............................................................

PR II is more balance heavy PR , gives more weight to rushing and TO then other websites say they are worth, gives extra credit for better defense and offenses that don't turn the ball over.  Is based on common denominators of past SB Champs.

 PR II uses the ave of each week, not end of season, seems to work much better. a few big weeks can really boost a teams rating.

1 Ravens 14.17 .............in  Jackson's games only
1 Tevans 9.7
2 Bears 9.43
3 Saints 7.77
4 Rams 7.71
5  Ravens 7.28......................in all games 
6  Seahawks 7.15
7 KC 6.74
8 Pats 6.32
9 LAC 5.08
10 Cowboys 1.87
11 Colts 1.44
12 Eagles (-.78)


MY LINES............................................

Bears -13.21 over Eagles
Seahawks -2.28 over Boys
Texans -11.26 over Colts
Ravens -5.2 over LAC .............FULL SEASON
Ravens -12.09 over LAC............With Jacksom


we have a play with a 6 pt diff to closing line

we have 2 plays on Bears and Texans and a possible play on Ravens using only Jackson's games.


Interesting that Texans actually finished no 1 over the entire season just ahead of the Bears. I never did run the Texans rating untill after season ended as I did not think any team could catch those other top teams. Won't matter but just interesting.

Ravens in Jackson's game would finish no. 1 in many years, a rating over 15 would be considered historically great, think 85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 92 Cowboys, 98 Broncos all teams that rolled their opponents by big margins in playoffs  on their way to A SB win.

That put in perspective how incredible this run with Jackson is, they didn't get to 15 and they did it over only 7 games not a full season so Ravens might be risky but a team this strong is to me  worth the risk.

This is to good of an oppurtunity to back a team could be the best team at an incredible price. You only have this type oppurtunity every blue moon, we won't pass it up here but will tread carefully and lower out plays..


we'll make 3 plays based on PR II,, we need a 6 pt diff to closing line, not likely Bears line goes to 7.5, not likely Texans line goes to 5.5, we can make a play on Ravens with Jackson , not likely that line goes to 6.5 .



Texans -1 over Colts --- 5.5 units
Ravens -2.5 (-115) over LAC --- 5.75 units
Bears -6 (-115) over Eagles --- 5.75 units


we have a possible 3 plays on the Bears if the line closes at 6 or less.


 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

OUR FAVORITE TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL..........................The Bears.....................................19 of our  past 22 favorites have made the championship game in the 4 sports we follow with 15 of the 19 winning the title.

 

I have  it as a bears/ravens  super bowl due to those 2 amazing  defenses no one will be able to move ball on.

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

CLOSE WINS..............................................................

Close wins are not a good thing, close wins are not repeatable.

The team with the most 1 score close wins is...........................how bout those Cowboys, 9 close wins to only 3 close losses.

They lead the league with 9 , the next best team has 6, well back of Dallas.

Dallas's +6 margin leads the league, next is Rams +5 and LAC +5

The biggest difference of any game this weekend is Dallas/Seattle with Seahawks having 5 close wins to 6 close losses = (-1).

That is a huge 7 game difference , you won't find such a huge difference in close wins between 2 teams very often

Next is LAC by 6 over Ravens who have only 3 close wins but 4 close losses = (-1) .

LAC were challenging for the no. 1 seed , with 6 close wins to only 1 close loss, had they gotten just a tad more unlucky in close wins  they'd be sitting at 10-6 and had the Ravens gotten just a tad luckier they'd be the team at 12-4 and challenging for the no. 1 seed.

The 2 other games are seperated by only a 2 game difference and a 1 GAME DIFFERENCE.


Based on close wins we'd have a play on Seahawks and Ravens.

Be back later with some history and records of past close wins playoff games.



We have 2 plays here on Seahawks and Ravens.

we do have another method with a fade on Seahawks, Seahawks have incredible efficeincy  in QBPR Margin and yards per point, way, way better then Dallas.

iN the playoffs efficeincy must lead to volume like total yards margin and for the Seahawks it does not. 

It appears the Seahawks efficeincy numbers come a very big part from  winning the TO battle not being the stronger team.

These type teams don't do well in the playoffs.

With that said , we could never make a play on Dallas, most close wins, not good in QBPR Margin only a +.29, less then 1 point.

not good in yards per pt margin at  0


Dallas did not rate out very strong in any of their wins but 1. There are at the bottom of every PR.

i WOULD HAVE TO LOOK MORE INTO THE METHOD FADES sEAHAWKS TO POSSIBLE MAKE A PLAY ON sEAHAWKS BUT LIKELY WON'T HAVE THE TIME.


Ravens do deserve a play on them  but we will pass on both games and will make a play on Ravens under PR II using Jackson, like we said, Ravens a more risky play with a small sample of games altough in close wins covers the entire season  but we will  not make to many plays on them.


 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

CLOSE WINS..............................................................

Close wins are not a good thing, close wins are not repeatable.

The team with the most 1 score close wins is...........................how bout those Cowboys, 9 close wins to only 3 close losses.

They lead the league with 9 , the next best team has 6, well back of Dallas.

Dallas's +6 margin leads the league, next is Rams +5 and LAC +5

The biggest difference of any game this weekend is Dallas/Seattle with Seahawks having 5 close wins to 6 close losses = (-1).

That is a huge 7 game difference , you won't find such a huge difference in close wins between 2 teams very often

Next is LAC by 6 over Ravens who have only 3 close wins but 4 close losses = (-1) .

LAC were challenging for the no. 1 seed , with 6 close wins to only 1 close loss, had they gotten just a tad more unlucky in close wins  they'd be sitting at 10-6 and had the Ravens gotten just a tad luckier they'd be the team at 12-4 and challenging for the no. 1 seed.

The 2 other games are seperated by only a 2 game difference and a 1 GAME DIFFERENCE.


Based on close wins we'd have a play on Seahawks and Ravens.

Be back later with some history and records of past close wins playoff games.



Teams with a 3 pt difference......... we have 2 this weekend...........
are.....................42-23 ATS 2005-2017

Produced only 1 losing year in playoffs , was in 2015 at 2-3 ATS and 2 other years of .500, in 2014 and 2017 last season.

Those are the only non-winning record years, but those 3 years came in the past 4 years. 2016 was 3-1 ATS 

9-8 ATS those 4 years.

This will either be a nice bounce back year or maybe tells us this method is getting old and tired.


 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

BONUS POINTS METHOD.............................................

bounos points uses key stats like yards per point  that I can't seem to work into the other PR's and give their true value, so I came up with this method.

Seems to be a good PR by itself but I am learning how to use it better as well.  We don't use this method to get our favorite but it helps to support plays and /or discourage plays.



1. Saints 10.5
2 Bears 10.27
3  Rams 9.56
4 Ravens 9.55..................full season
5 Pats 8.23
6 LAC 7.34
7 KC 7.11
8 Colts 6.93
9  Texans 6.3
10 Seahawks 4.65
11 Boys 1.46
12 Eagles 1.26


we have a play with a 4.5 difference to closing line

MY ,LINES......................................

Bears -12.01 over  Eagles
Seahawks -.19 over Boys
Ravens -5.21 over LAC
Texans -2.37 over Colts


we have 1 play on the Bears at this time.



BONUS POINTS ..........................................2008-2017

4.5 diff to closing line .................23-10 ATS
WC round...................................8-3 ATS
DIV round...................................9-4 ATS
CONF finals................................6-3 ATS


Favorites of 5 points or more with my lines are 37-12 SU (rAVENS, bEARS)

Favorites in WC round of 5 points or more ....17-6 SU



TEAMS RANKED NO. 1 IN EACH CONFERENCE.......................

8 OF 20 NO. 1 ranked in conf made the SB (NO, Ravens)

at least 1 of the no. 1 ranked teams in each conference has made the SB in every year but 1....2015.




 
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Posted: #18
We haven't seen a surprise team from the WC round since 2012 Ravens.

The Colts had that look in the 1st half as they crushed Texans in QBPR 110 TO 50 BY 60 PTS and in ave per pass, but the 2cd half was a different story as Luck fell back to 88 but the defense did play strong 70.

At this point we can't rule out the Colts, we need at least 2 weeks anyway to have a good idea, but possible Colts could have the look if they come up big next week.


MY LINES......................PRI........................

KC -9.44 OVER cOLTS

PR II.............................

KC -8.3 over Colts

Bonus Pts......................

KC -3.18 over Colts
 
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Posted: #19
Seahawks out-played Boys and should of won the game according to both PR's, by 6.04 pts and 4.55 pts.

Wilson won fairly big passing battle, QBPR by 105.9 to 83.7 by 22.2 and ave per pass 8.1 to 6.4 by 1.7.

And Seahawks won Yards per point by a fairly big amount 13.59 to 15.83 by 2.24.

Seahawks even won the TO battle 1-0, rarely will a team lose after such a performance.

But as we talked about guys, efficeincy without volume does not win in playoffs and the Seahawks were pounded in volume, the one area Boys had an advantage over Seattle.

Seahawks did win ATS if you had gotten the best available line during the week, once again this shows the importance of getting the best available line.

And you could have won with Boys ATS  had you gotten best available line on them, sometimes much easier said then done but you should always make a good attempt at it.


I don't see Boys as any surprise WC round team, completely out-played in key efficeincy stats  more likely a beat-down is coming next week in NO. if Bears win SU today which is very likely.



 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:


we'll make 3 plays based on PR II,, we need a 6 pt diff to closing line, not likely Bears line goes to 7.5, not likely Texans line goes to 5.5, we can make a play on Ravens with Jackson , not likely that line goes to 6.5 .



Texans -1 over Colts --- 5.5 units
Ravens -2.5 (-115) over LAC --- 5.75 units
Bears -6 (-115) over Eagles --- 5.75 units


we have a possible 3 plays on the Bears if the line closes at 6 or less.





week....................0-1 ATS, lost 5.5 units

Texans did cover the 2cd half down 21-0 and -4.5, possible we would of made a small play on Texans but I was not home on computer, my cell is to tough to use on this site.

Possible 2cd half plays today and/or in game plays in either game. Mostly if we get behind and get far better value in the line then we have on the game.

Bears line hanging at 6.5, if line drops to 6 we make 2 additional plays on the Bears.
 
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Posted: #21
The best team in the WC round using PRI HAS GONE PAST 10 YEARS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS

Just backing the best team in WC round  regardless of opp has produced some very good results.

The only team to lose was 2009 Packers, may have been Rodgers 1st playoff game. Lost 51-45, great game, remember it well.

Interesting was there was a huge line movement on Packers, opening +3 and closing -2.5 , a huge 5.5 line move with public pounding Rodgers and the Pack.

Fading these big line moves is most always the thing to do, but even so, blinding playing the best team in this round does very well.

The other 2 losses were both by half a point to the spread. And in one game the team score a TD on 4th down with 28 seconds left to back door cover by .5 pt.


Best team of course is the Bears,  not only the best team this round but best team in the league according to PRI.
 
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Posted: #22

Like your thoughts, good luck..I respect your work although I still think your Jax pick lucked out last year as a anomaly and this season proved it..

Ravens-Jackson needs to be rated higher because he is a superior runner, like Vick early on..he can get by any defender..plus he makes smart throws and doesn't turn it over...and HE EATS CLOCK..I took the Ravens at +2500 to win the AFC 11/25..so glad the Steeler circus is finished

 
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Posted: #23

Such incredibly well thought out and researched posts.  

 

I have have been on this site for over 10 years and you would unquestionably be on my Mount Rushmore of covers handicappers, although, I admit carving your avatar in a mountain would not seem worth the expense( vanzac’s would be more entertaining). 

 

thank you for you time and expertise 

 
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Posted: #24
What happens if we blindly back the best team in PRI each year in their opening playoff game ?

2009 Saints 14.04, won ATS, won SB , 2-1 ATS
2010 Steelers 12.75, won ATS, made SB , 2-1 ats
2011 Packers 13.83, lost SU and ATS, weak defensive team and weak volume team.
2012 49ers 14.07, won ATS, made SB , ATS record depends the line you got in NFC Championship game VS Falcons. could of been 2-1, 1-1-1 or 1-2.
2013 Seahawks 14.34, lost ATS, Won SB, 2-1 ATS
2014 Packers 11.21, lost ATS by .5, not in SB, NOT SURE ats record
2015 Seahawks 12.86 , lost ATS , 0-2 ATS LOST TO pANTHERS IN DIV, Panthers 12.57, just .29 behind
2016  Pats 11.8, won ATS, won SB, 3-0 ats
2017  Eagles 10.81 with WENTZ, without Wentz we had no  no. 1 ranked team, but won ATS, won SB and went 3-0 ats.

5-4 ATS 1st game with 2 teams losing by half a point.

6 of the 9 no. 1 ranked teams made the SB counting Eagles 5 of 8 not counting.

4 of 9 won SB counting Eagles and 3 of 8 not counting.

 
 
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Posted: #25
POWER RATINGS II.............................................

2009 vIKINGS 13.83, won ATS, NOT IN sb, 2-0 ats
2010 Steelers 12.3 , won ATS, made SB, 2-1 ATS
2011 Texans, won ATS, not in SB , 2-0 ats , lost starting qb THEN LOST BACK UP qb , WAS down to rookie 3 stringer but still went 2-0 ATS 
2012 49ERS 13.1 won ATS made SB, record depends on line u got
2013 Seahawks lost AST, won SB, 2-1 ats
2014 Seattle 13.29 , won ATS, made SB 1-2 ats lost SB on INT on the 1 yard line.
2015 Panthers 15.29, won ATS, made SB, 2-1 ats
2016 Cowboys 10.83, lost SU and ATS
2017 Eagles 12.97 with Wentz, won ATS, won SB and 3-0 ATS.


6-2 ats 1st game,

6 of 9 teams made SB
2 OF 9 won SB


We had 4 teams ranked no. 1 in both PR's I & II AND all 4 teams made the SB with 2 teams winning.

1st game was 3-1 ATS with 2013  Seahawks losing when Saints scored with 28 seconds left on 4th down . 

interesting as well that 2 teams lost staring QB , Eagles and Texans but still did well in playoffs ATS, 5-0 .

also interesting when PRII no. 1 ranked team was weak, 2016 Dallas the weakest up to this season , all other teams over 12, Dallas 10.83 and this season Texans 9.7 who become the weakest no. 1 ranked are the only 2 teams lost SU AND HAVE 2 OF 3 ats LOSSES.
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