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NFL PLAYOFFS...........................................................2018/2019

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Posted: #51
Saints -3 (-115)  over Rams --- 5.75 units to win 5 units
 
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Posted: #52

claw

i find your analysis fascinating

must say i am leaning towards saints-chiefs as my plays

so i am hoping your regression of your predictions yields a 1-1 split

love the saints play

hard for me to get over using your same style of analysis

the pats looked so dominant at HOME

now must take their game to arrowhead

when they have been a consistently less powerful team on the ROAD

using your analysis ansd rationale

shouldnt the pats be in for regression mode after the sheer dominance of their win over the chargers

particularly given their home /road splits?

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by dr tony:

claw

i find your analysis fascinating

must say i am leaning towards saints-chiefs as my plays

so i am hoping your regression of your predictions yields a 1-1 split

love the saints play

hard for me to get over using your same style of analysis

the pats looked so dominant at HOME

now must take their game to arrowhead

when they have been a consistently less powerful team on the ROAD

using your analysis ansd rationale

shouldnt the pats be in for regression mode after the sheer dominance of their win over the chargers

particularly given their home /road splits?



you do bring up a very good point, Pats did play an extreme game up to a point but then Chargers rolled back into the game and came close at the end to a possible score and onside kick attempt to win the game.

at halftime the Pats looked like a major fade the next week VS KC.

the extreme game reversed in the 2cd half to Chargers outplaying the Pats. NEGATES THE EXTREME GAME.

if you look at FO outsiders chart Pats offENSE  played best game of season VS LAC maybe they regress off that game but KC defense could regress as well.


I don't really like road/home splits, almost every team plays better at home then on the road and many play much better at home.

I find using the entire season seems to work the best.
 
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Posted: #54
COMMON DENOMINATORS OF SB CHAMPS.........

Saints one weakness is pass defense, def QBPR is last amoung the 4 teams as is their ave per pass attt def.

Pats the best of 4 teams.

most SB winners finish belowq league ave,..... Pats and KC just gets in by a fraction. rAMS sAINTS DO NOT


yds/pt......................Rams do not fit. other 3 teams do.

QBPR MARGIN..... again Rams out , Pats borderline,.....in KC , Saints

total yards margin.....KC out, other 3 teams in

total yards peak in 2cd haLF OF SEASON......Rams out, other 3 teams in.

Rams outgained opps by over 100 yards 1st half and were only +13.7 2cd half, huge regression 2cd half

There is nothing SB calibre about this Rams team, least likely team to win the SB, and least likely team to win today.
 
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Posted: #55
when we add up all the methods posted here Saints were the play with line moving to -3 in 8 of 9 methods, Rams 0 of 9

Pats 5 of 9, KC 2 OF 9

SAINTS APPEAR TO BE THE BEST PLAY THIS WEEKEND


 
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Posted: #56
if we look at all 9 methods, of which rarely go 0-2 ATS or even 0-1-1 ATS since we do have 2....-3 lines a push could be more then possible.

If the results are Rams and KC then 4 methods would go 0-2 ATS. 2 methods go 1-1 ATS, 3 METHODS GO 0-1 ats , that makes  7 of 9 methods post losing ATS records this seems the least likely of any result.



iF RESULTS ARE  Saints and KC then 2 methods go 2-0 ATS, 4 go 1-1 ATS, 2 GOES 1-0 ats and1 METHOD GOES 0-1 ats.  this seems very likely

if results are Saints and Pats, 4 methods go 2-0 ATS, 2 GO 1-1 ats, 3  goes 1-0 ATS, this seems very likely as well.

If results are Rams and Pats.........2 methods 0-2 ATS, 4 METHODS GO 1-1 ats, 2 methods go 0-1 ATS , 1 METHOD GOES 1-0 ats , not likely as 4 methods would need to have losing ATS records. this result seems the 2cd least likely to happen.


when we add it all up the info suggest the Saints / Pats or Saints/KC is the most likely ATS result we should find in these 2 games.


 
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Posted: #57
Reading the article on fivethirtyeight they claim 63% of conference championship games have had a revenge angle from the regular season not counting teams split 1-1.

And only 37% of the teams got their revenge.

Once again supports the Saints and Pats winning today, and once again what is the likilihood they both lose ??

More then likely at least 1 of those teams will win.

I have done similar research in the past , have'nt kept up with it over the years except to be aware of it , what I found was teams winning by 1 score wins were more likely to lose a revenge game, teams winning by 14 or more far  less likely to lose a revenge game.

Saints won by over 1 score but not by 14 ,  Pats by 1 score, once again it supports the Saints being the better play this weekend.
 
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Posted: #58
The Goat vs Saints   Superbowl LIII   the patriots and Saintss $$$ wins todayy good luck $$$$$$ my friends pick IluminattiThe Saints wins The Superbowl Against $$$$$
 
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Posted: #59
NFL MVP.......................................

Basically boils down to 2 players Brees and Mahomes, both players deserve the award, but only one will get it.

Brees has slightly better QBPR BY 1.9, VERY SMALL EDGE, BUT MAHOMES HAS MUCH BETTER AVE PER PASS 8.1 after sacks to Brees 7.65 after sacks.

VOTERS LIKE TO VOTE BASED ON EXPECTATIONS, Mahomes far exceed expectations for himself and the team, Brees had a great year but was far more expected as Saints lost a fluke game from getting to NFC Championship game last year and possible SB trip as such voters more likely expected the Saints and Brees to come back hungry and angry.

Not only that but it is how Mahomes has played, the things he has done, the way he has done them, very impressive stufff and far exceed expectations...................................


MAHOMES wins the MVP in 2018..............................

And does not win the SB keeping the trend going of MVP's not winning the SB...............................
 
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Posted: #60

claw

your research looking spot on earlypeace_5

 
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Posted: #61
Well, the info was right on the money with both games, but much like our entire regular season has gone from our play of the year losing with 3 lost fumbles in the red zone, 2 inside the 3 yard line and the Bears, our SB Favorite losing on a freakish finger just grazing the ball enough to hit the upright and then the crossbar but falling out of the FG, ONCE AGAIN ANYTHING THAT CAN GO WRONG HAS.............. with what might be the most horrendous NO CALL in history.

We can not catch a frigg'in break. 

First the very poor clock management by Saints but then after they left to much time on clock they needed a TD AND called a great play which fooled the defense so bad the Rams defender said he had no choice but to run and commit a penality  or give up a TD.

So he clearly commits the penalty but no call is made, we can not catch a break.

We did catch some big breaks with the Pats winning though but not in the game we took action and could have won or at least pushed, I never seen anything like it.

Eventually the breaks will go our way and when they do they just might come in bunches as this type things tend to go.
 
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Posted: #62
SUPER BOWL........................................

PR I.....

Pats -.92 over Rams

defense adjusted PR I....................... has the better ATS record in SB

Pats receive 3.08 additional pts being better in key areas like Defensive passer rating and ave per pass att.

Pats -4 over Rams
 
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Posted: #63
PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATING  I.........................................

Pats -3.65 over Rams 

15-5-1 ATS in all games............................since 1997.
won last season with Eagles -16.63 over Pats
4-2 ATS since 2012

2 losses on Panthers and Falcons who blew a 28-3 lead with foolish play calling 2cd half.



PLAYOFF ONLY PR II...................................

Pats - 13.07 over Rams

PLAYOFF ONLY BONUS POINTS...................

Pats -2.89 over Rams


Pats clearly played the best in playoffs............................
 
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Posted: #64
FO Guts and Stomps delivered again with it's best bet call on the Pats over KC.

guts and stomps in SB .............................................

Pats win 2 of 4 areas, Rams win 1 area, 1 area even.

Rams win their 1 area by 1 game, Pats win by 2 games and 3 games

Pats win 2 areas by 5 games, Rams 1 area by 1 game = Pats by 4 games, Pats won 3 of 4 areas and by 5 games over KC


We subtract big wins from close wins VS winning records.................Pats by 2 games

We subtract big wins from close wins VS losing records.............Pats by 2 games

Pats won 3 of 4 areas over KC, 2 OF 4 OVER rAMS

the best play was Pats over KC , Pats over Rams still a very solid play according to guts and stomps.


I would not bet against the Pats in this SB..........................
 
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Posted: #65
POWER RATING II................................

Rams - 1.39 over Pats


BONUS POINTS.........................

Rams -1.33 over Pats 


Not sure the history of these 2 methods, I don't think PR II works as well aS PR I in SB'S, but even if it did, it's offset by Pats playing better in the playoffs in both methods.

When PRI has the same lean ATS IN both regular season defense adjusted  and playoffs it has a very good record........................


 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

EXPECTED WIN MARGIN..........................................

I found stats that have high cortrelation to point margin of SB winners throughout the playoffs. Ans then was able to come up with an ave pts each team should win by if the were to win SB.

This does not tell us who will win, for that we need to use other methods, but instead tells us how many points a team will win by "IF" they should win the SB.

wE CAN'T REALLY USE IT IN THE FIRST GAME, EACH TEAM GETS SO MANY POINTS TO USE UP, once they use all their pts or get to SB then we will have a good idea about how much they should win by.

Saints 9.37 per game X 3 games = 28.13 pts total in  all 3 games needed to win SB

Rams 15.65 with 46.95 total pts to use'

Pats 8.58 with 25.73 total pts

KC 5.03 with 15.08 total pts.

LAC 9.74 WITH 38.94

does not work for surprise WC teams as those teams will need to play better then their regular season stats to advance.

The thing really stands out is how low KC's margin is, only 5 pts a game.

Bye teams like KC don't do well ATS their 1st playoff game, about 30% covers  and lose SU just under 50% of the time.

I think that make's KC VS Colts the most interesting game this weekend.

And with Colts looking like a possible surprise WC round team and Reid's past playoff failures and the rise of Mahomes who more then likely will be very determined to get Reid over the hump and win his 1st playoff game   really makes this game so interesting.









Expected Win Margin........................

remember, does not tell us who will win, tells us how much the eventual SB winner should win by.

It comes in handy to tell us if the favorite wins will they cover ?

Of course if the dog wins they will cover, the Rams in this case, they have 35.95 points left, suggesting that a possible big win could happen. "IF" the Rams were to win. It doesn't tell us they will.

Pats had 25.73 points and have used 19, which tells us they should win around the 6.73 points left to be used.

Last year the Pats had used all their points going into the SB and needed to lose by a couple of points and Eagles still had over 8 points left and the won almost right on that amount , just missing by a couple of points.


Interesting as well was KC using all their points in the playoff win over the Colts needing to lose by almost 3 points to fall on their expected win margin and they lost by 6.


We can expect the Pats to win about by 6 to 7 points and cover the -2.5 which most winning teams will coversmasll number anyway  


 
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Posted: #67
We were talking about KC's weak defense all season and suspected KC would not win the SB WITH SUCH A WEAK DEFENSE.

And once again a high flying offensive team with a weak defense fails to win the big game, people like to get caught up in these unstoppable offensive teams even with weak defenses which bucks history.

2 years ago we talked a good part of the season about the Steelers not winning the SB BECAUSE OF THEIR VERY POOR EFFICEINCY.

We'll see what ne4xt year holds and if we can isolate another bye team that won't win the SB with sone weak areas on the team.
 
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Posted: #68
Well, FO no. 1 ranked team KC did make it further into the playoffs then our no. 1 ranked Bears .

But once again their no. 1 ranked team fails to make the SB, that's an insane ONLY 5 no. 1 ranked teams to make the SB since 2000.

FO has alot to offer but their no. 1 ranked team is not one of those things.


Right off the bat it appears they put way to much weight on passing offense, AND passing efficeincy  maybe that works in the regular season but balance and volume stats are needed to win the SB.

And they do a poor job measuring these things.

The big thing I found researching SB winners and teams that don't win SB's is .......Efficeincy without volume or volume without efficeincy does not win SB's for the most part.

The other very important area I found was efficeincy does not work to measure the running game, many web sites will even tell you that have no clue how to measure the running game Brain Burke from NFL advanced stats said he knows the running game is important but does not know exactly how to measure it, not sure what he is saying now a days since he went to ESPN some years back have not followed along since. 


These sites want to use efficeincy to measure the run game which goes against the very nature of how the game is played.

Rushing yards and/or rushing attempts is a far better way to measure the run game along with  rushing defense And this is especially true for strong passing teams since points come out of the passing game.

Once a strong passing team  gets the lead they will then run more often there by creating more yards and attempts and efficeincy is not important at this point, 4 yards and a cloud of dust are all that is needed,. control the clock , keep your opp on the bench.

Because the opp knows your going to run how do you expect to produce efficeincy ?? Efficeincy in terms of aVE PER RUSH IS Impacted by a few bigger runs which are far harder to get when the defense knows your running.

When the team that trails has the ball they will pass more often and the defense knows this too, so defense only cares about not giving up big pass plays and does not devote much concern to the run game therefore with fewer attempts by the team trailing and the defense not caring a few quick draw plays can gain 10, 12 or 15 yards those type plays will juice up the ave with few rushing attempts but the team leading has far more rushing attempts so therefore a few similar type gains will not hAVE THE SAME EFFECT ON ave per rush.

Ave per rush is far more important for teams that rely more heavily on the run game , these type usually stronger defensive teams like the 2000 Ravens for example can be measured by not only rushing yards and attempts but also av e per rush.

2000 Ravens were not any great passing team but they were one of the greatest teams in our PR II A MORE BALANCE HEAVY PR giving more weight to rushing yards.

You would not want to measure for example the 91 Redskins 
with an explosive big play passing game by ave per rush, they actually were in the negative, being out-played in ave per rush.

For a passing team ave per rush is 100% completely meaningless. Rushing yards and attempts tell us a heck of alot more.


To give you an example of what I discovered that others have not, FO along with others have said the running game is not as IMPORTANT AS THE PASSING GAME AND PASSING  EFFICEINCY, and that TO are random and should not carry much weight.

PR II if we combined the running game and TO together those 2 carry more weight then the passing game, that's right the 2 things others claim is not as important as passing  and look at the results.

Since 2012 our no. 1 ranked team in PR II has made the SB  5 of those 7 years, ALL THESE WERE POSTED ON THE SITE only our 2 lowest ranked no. 1 teams by far did not make it, Dallas in 2016 and the Texans who became the lowest ranked this year.

5 teams made the SB since 2012 VS FO having 5 teams make the SB since 2000.

And were using info they say is not as important to get those no. 1 ranked teams.

And by the way I developed PR II by charting SB winners game by game over the entire regular season and using common denominators that these teams had that others did not have.

FO and others are more developed by using the regular season as their guide.

Those are some of the things  I wanted to point out on the different ways a PR can be developed.

Another big difference is having 2 PR's one that measures passing efficeincy and another that measures balance and defense thus allowing us to find weaknesses in a team that others using only 1 PR and measuring just passing efficeincy heavily likely won't find.

Balance and defense is way to important in the NFL to ignore . And that is what we trey to do with 2 different PR's.







 
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Posted: #69
CLOSE WINS...............................................

RAMS WITH 6 CLOSE WINS TO 1 CLOSE LOSS = +5
Pats with 3 close wins to 2 close losses = +1

we back teams at least 3 games fewer then opp as close wins are mostly the product of luck and not sustainable.

Pats 4 games fewer.......................... play is on the Pats



thus far close wins has done well enough........ WC round we had Ravens over LAC and Seahawks over Boys, depending on the line you got with Seahawks, opened 2.5 and closed 2.5, but did drop to 2, then 1.5 and 1.

divisional round we had Pats over LAC and Eagles over Saints 

the only game close wins was way off was Ravens over LAC, could be 3-1, 2-1-1 or 2-2 if you got a really bad line on Seahawks.

once again the play is on the Pats.........................
 
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Posted: #70
one thing we talk about from time to time when it applies is big linemovements has we have on Pats, you are always better of fading these large linemovements which says to Fade the Pats.

let's wait out the line, likely Rams money is waiting to see if line reaches 3 but  will at some point  come in to play and then we'll have a better idea.

a big part of the money comes in last couple of days , if you want the Pats at this point I'd wait and see if it goes down cause the Rams money will come in even if it does not get to 3 and likely drive the number down.

if I'm wrong and the number continues to climb would give me reason for concern backing such a huge line movement and would likely pass anyway so it is an advantage to wait.
 
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Posted: #71
Madden has pats by 7 I think . Supposed Madden has a very good record in SB. 

Pretty much what our expected win margin says pats should win by if they win.
 
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Posted: #72

great, tons of stats with careful analysis..how about..

 

A) greatest mentally sharp and tough QB vs. one of the weakest..

B) Slot receivers way better and tougher on one team

C) best player on one team clearly ineffective since November

D) one team with 2 players experience in SB

 

hmmm, who should I take inside 3 points?

 

 

 
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Posted: #73
Madden is 9-3 Su and 8-4 ATS.

3 losses were 2007 pats losing to Giants
2010 Steelers losing to packers
2013 Denver losing to Seahawks

Those also also 3 ATS losses but not sure the 4th ATS loss.


Comparing Madden to our playoff only PR. 5 picks were different we won 3 to Madden's 2.

In 7 games we pick the same we are 7-0 su not sure ATS since i don't know the other ATS loss forum madden
 
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Posted: #74
Madden has pats by 7, playoff only has pats by 3.58 or 4 points. Expected win margin has pats by 6.73 or 7 pts same as madden.

In SB games pats have won they are 3-2 ATS. In games with a small line and pats won they are 2-0 ATS. The pats 2 ATS losses in games they won were with a 7 pt line.

Remember, team wins su covers about 84% of the time, the smaller the line the higher % they will cover, the larger the line the lower % they will cover, exactly what we see with pats.

Lines 3 pts or less the winning team covers about 95% of the time.

If pats win su highly likely they will cover.
 
 
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Posted: #75
 into the trap thinking became pats have a 3-5 ATS record in SB they are automatic fade.

First determine if they will win su, if they will then highly likely they will cover this game
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