NFL Preseason 2015

Week 1 - Thursday 8/13

Ravens-3 and Over 37.5
Saints on the road against one of the league's deepest teams.  Ravens are known to build from the draft.  I think Saints have weaknesses all over, with some new young playmakers sprinkled in.  Ravens depth and being at home should allow them to win convincingly.

Packers +2 and Under 37.5
Both teams are well coached.  I think Jimmy G. struggles for the Patriots under center.  Patriots lack depth and skill at RB and all skill positions as well.  Just think they struggle too much offensively.  Low scoring game - Packers squeeze out a win.  Defense on both sides should make plays.  It is Gillette Stadium, so there is a chance of Patriots upset ..just feel the play is Packers.

Lions-4
Jets are rebuilding and I'm not sure Bowles has full control of this team yet.  Other hand Lions seem to be trending up...Ebron could go off with extended playing time...Lions win convincingly.

Dolphins+2
Bears are rebuilding and I know John Fox - he's not trying to win games, just asses position depth.  I trust Philbin to attempt to win games in pre-season, as well as do depth and player assessments.  Bears have too many holes for me to back them in this one, maybe against a lesser team.

Chargers/Cowboys Under 37
Both teams want to see what they have in the run game.  I'm expecting a position, ground game - doubt either team airs anything out.

Week 1 - Friday 8/14

Broncos+5
Broncos have more depth in 2/3rd teams than the Seahawks, in my opinion.  Comes down to a FG either way...going to take points.  Both defenses are going to have field days with weak and inexperienced offensive lines...lean under - but I fear defensive turnovers and touchdowns may blow up the total.

Titans+3
Mariota sees extended time under center, and Mettenberger isn't too bad.  Falcons just seem soft to me...unless they're at home - I'm hesitant to side with this team.  Lean over, but won't play it.

Bills/Panthers Under 35
Defensive teams with depth and something to prove - Panthers wideouts are unproven in my book and I don't trust Panther's 2nd string QB.  Same thing with Bills, lack of weapons outside 1st team and a shaky QB situation - feels like the total goes under.

Steelers pick
Jags are still rebuilding - still not sure what to expect from this team.  Think the Steelers start hot, after playing in the HOF game.  Like Tomlin to have his guys ready to bounce back.

Bengals-3
Bengals have drafted well last couple years, think they have clear advantage at home against a Giants team that seems to be middling...

Raiders+1
Home dogs, possibility of being one of the most improved teams in the league this year, good situation.  Rams also are talented and have great depth due to draft position last few years...should be a close one, but I'm going to take home team in this one.

Best of Luck  

I bought out of my Packers and under play - consider those leans - but I bought out.  I just can't bet against Patriots, @ Foxboro - while Belichick is the head coach.  Other than that - feel free to tail!

Exactly! 

Also considering Tom Brady might play a series, just concerns me.  From a momentum standpoint - if he leads a drive to a TD, that could potentially start a blowout.  Packers may just go thru the motions - since it's still early pre-season.

For Thursday - went 4-1..would have been 6-1, if I didn't buy out of my Packers/Under plays.

6-1 so far...

Going into today..some thoughts.

Raiders line moved to -1 from +1..would consider them a solid bet to win straight up.  Titans-3 is being juiced -130 on my online book, would consider laying off at that price - still think Mariota gets extended time and Mettenberger comes in to play well.  Don't trust Falcons defense yet, but they should be somewhat improved from last year.  Lean over for the Titans/Falcons game, but I won't play it.

Strongest plays for me today are Raiders-1, Bills Under 35.5, and Bengals-3.

Broncos+5 seems very good to me, Seahawks 2nd/3rd team offense will struggle against Denver's defensive depth in my opinion.  Also Denver's 2nd/3rd team offense has some skill.
Home field advantage will probably bring this down to a FG...taking points.

Like the Bengals play. Seems to be a popular pick across a lot of boards. GL tonight.

Thanks sportsnut.

Some additional leans from me.

Titans/Falcons over 37. Mettenberger is a quality 2nd string qb. He will get his imo. Falcons are missing starting cb Desmond Trufant. Don't trust Falcons secondary...very comservative...they'll make mistakes.

Giants/Bengals over 37. Both teams will look to get their quarterbacks and wide outs started early. O'Dell Beckham has looked unstoppable in practice, I expect that to show up first series. Bengals will want to exexute number of passes with Dalton. Expecting a shootout.

3-3 Friday 8/14, 1-1 on leans...

4-1 Thursday 8/15, 2-0 on leans...

7-4 altogether...3-1 on leans...

Week 1 - Saturday 8/14

Chiefs+3
Feeling more depth from the Chiefs, think Arizona struggles at home - some pieces missing on defense.

Vikings-3.5
Teddy Bridgewater should keep rolling, like Vikings defense - think they're well coached and match up well against Bucs...lean under on this game.

Texans-3
Texans at home - think Texans play better than most expect...especially in preseason.  going to take the Hard Knocks team this time around against a depleted and reeling SF 49ers team.

3-0 For Saturday 8/15

Overall Record: 10-4, 3-1 on leans

...

Week 1 - Sunday 8/16

Eagles-4
Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow at home against the Colts 2nd/3rd team.  Think they see some success against a Colts team that has some serious talent in the 1st and 2nd teams, but overall somewhat less depth.  Think a fresh Eagles team plays up to expectations at home.

Good plays

1-0 for Sunday 8/16

Overall Record: 11-4
Leans: 3-1

Weekly recap: +$2130

Week 2 - Thursday 8/20

Lions/Redskins Over 38*

Bills/Browns Under 36*

*These are my subjective lines - essentially these are initial leans off what I expect the totals to be.

Week 2 -

Thursday 8/20
Redskins-3
Lions@Redskins Over 40
Bills@Browns Under 40

Friday 8/21
Falcons pick
Falcons@Jets Over
Chiefs-1.5

Saturday 8/22
Ravens+3.5
Dolphins@Panthers Under
Bears+3
Bears@Colts Under
Saints-1
Broncos+3
Raiders+5
Chargers+3

Sunday 8/23
Packers+3
Bengals+1.5

Thursday 8/20
Lions@Redskins Over 40
Both teams have explosive 1st team offenses.  Detroit with the better 1st team defense, has a mediocre 2nd/3rd team defensive.  I expect both teams to score early, Lions with the lead first half.  Second half, expect Kirk Cousins to start lighting up the Lions 2nd/3rd team defensive units.  Points this game.  Slight lean on the home team Redskins taking the game, good chance on covering.

Bills@Browns Under 40
Both teams have solid defensive units with depth.  I think Bills struggle to take deep shots with Cassel.  I don't trust McCown to do much against Bills 1st team defense.  Think Manziel might have a bit more success, but overall he's going to struggle.  Bills don't have a real QB either...Manuel and Tyner might do things but how much?  Maybe a turnover here or there.  Bills see more success 2nd half than the Browns, slight lean Bills to win straight up.

Leans:
Redskins-2.5
Bills+3

Thank You for week 2 info.

Looking good so far!

If you read my analysis/write-ups; you'll see that I'm pretty much on point so far this pre-season.

Falcons pick / Over 39
Jets keep it close early, however Falcons are going to make plays offensively, just too much talent 1st team.  I don't trust this Jets team yet, even though defensively they're extremely talented.  Good chance Jets defense impresses early, but fades later when the 2nd/3rd team show up.  Also Jet's offense is very inconsistent, nothing against Ryan Fitzpatrick or Chan Gailey, just a lack of offensive weapons to implement the scheme.  Plays will be made against Falcons secondary-they play soft.

Chiefs-2
I had this pick when the line was Chiefs-1.5, now it's -3.  Chiefs at home, very deep and athletic against a Seahawks team that is notorious for playing poorly on the road.  From a depth perspective, think Chiefs win this on a neutral field.  Seahawks offensive line is crap.  They'll be exploited, and it's going to be loud at Arrowhead.

Thursday 8/20: 1-1 for today, 2-0 on my leans..

Overall Record: 12-5
Leans: 5-1

Some takeaways - Lions defense is more solid than I expected.  Think Kirk Cousins is a better fit for this offense.  Also think Browns may start Manziel this year, looks a lot better than McCown - just concerned about his maturity.  Manziel needs to play like a professional, and I think his talent can shine.  Tyrod Taylor looks like the Bills starter, think he gets the nod week 1 regular season.

Some thoughts on totals tomorrow:

Think Jets/Falcon lands on 40-43..total is 39.  Tread lightly.  :)

Think Chiefs/Seahawks lands on 38/39..total is 41.  I'll go ahead and list that as a lean on under 41.

I think we might be surprised by Jets offense, that's why the total lands 40/41.  Best guess Falcons 23 - Jets 19.

Chiefs should dominate Seahawks offensive line.

Strongest play for me is Chiefs-3@home.

Saturday 8/22

Broncos+3
Broncos should be the favorites in this game.  Broncos defensive depth is 2nd to none in the league, 1st team is very talented.  Osweiler is no joke, so he should continue what Peyton Manning starts.  Manning should see at least 1 quarter of action - should see success against a suspect Texans secondary.  Texans are pretty good defensively 1st team, but 2nd/3rd team defenses will be exposed.  Hoyer and Mallett won't win games and Texans will be playing from behind after 1st quarter with Manning at the helm.

Dolphins@Panthers Under 40
Dolphins 1st team offense is good, but 2nd/3rd team offense do not stand out.  The Panthers don't have legit weapons at wideout.  Funchess is unproven, Kelvin Benjamin is out for the season.  Greg Olsen is legit, but won't see extended time.  Panthers aren't going to scare anyone with their 2nd and 3rd team offense.  Dolphins defensively are solid, however there are some questions on depth, I don't see Panthers offense challenging them.  Collectively, both teams should struggle to score.  No lean on outcome.

Ravens+3.5
Eagles were good last week, but this time they face a deep Ravens defense.  Sanchez, Barkley, and Tebow come down to earth.  Ravens also will look to score points and establish some chemistry with Flacco and new offensive coordinator.  Feel Ravens cover and possibly win straight up.

Bears+3/Bears@Colts Under 41
This is more about Bears defense, than Bears offense.  Fangio got them off to a great start and I think the Bears do have some talent depth defensively.  In a low scoring game, I'm going to go with points.  Colts have been the media darling this off season with numerous acquisitions that have yet to translate to on field success.  Luck won't be in this game 3rd/4th quarter, and that's when the Bears should take over this game on the road.

Saints-1
Saints proved they have the young playmakers to put up points.  I think at home, they light up a Patriots secondary that is very suspect this season.  Jimmy G. should play better under center for the Patriots.  Slight lean on the over @ 43.

Raiders+5
Too many points for a preseason game that should be close.  These teams are very similar with defensive head coaches in Zimmer and Del Rio, good depth defensively, some real young play makers on offense, two young, upcoming QBs.  Should be a close game - Vikings don't cover 5 points; comes down to a FG or less.

Chargers+3/Under 39.5
Another close game, going to take points.  Arizona should play better, but I expect both teams to try and establish the run game for different reasons.  Going to take the Chargers, who I feel are the more complete team with more depth.  Arizona has some talent on the 1st teams, however I think they don't have a lot of depth past 1st team - should struggle when the game comes down 3rd/4th quarter.