NFL Season Win Totals

I hit the win totals early the last couple of seasons and ended up with some great lines on almost all of them. It's tough have money tied up for this long but I've read up a lot of these teams and am getting the jump early again before training camps start in about a month and lines move. Good to be talking football.


Carolina Panthers UNDER 7.5

This team will get a lot of hype heading into the season but I’m not buying it. I bet this team Over season wins last year and cashed but this year I think there is good value going the other way especially considering this bet is still at plus money.

This team’s defense was flat out terrible last year. They were 30th in opp pass efficiency and 25th in yards per rush. They will get a big boost from getting Jon Beason back and by all accounts the kid they drafted from Boston College will be a solid LB as well but this team did nothing to fix a terrible defensive line and secondary. If you can’t stop the pass in this league you can’t win consistently. As a whole the unit will be a bit better simply because they are getting some key players in at LB and really there is nowhere to go but up, but overall this is still a bad defense.

The offense was great last year but I’m still not entirely sold on this unit. This team made a lot of big plays last year but there is no guarantee that a team that relies on the big play will be able to duplicate that success. Carolina tied for #5 in points scored last year with San Diego. The 4 teams ahead of them were Green
Bay, New Orleans, New England, and Detroit. The six QB’s in this group are Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, and Cam Newton. Is Newton on the same level as those other guys? I’m not buying it yet. The run game is also outstanding but much like the defense but in reverse, there is really nowhere to go but down. Since 2002, there have been 12 teams that have rushed for over 5.0 yards per carry for a full season and in the next season 11 of the 12 teams did worse with only one maintaining the same ranking. Of the 11 that fell they fell by an average of 8.8 spots in the rankings. Carolina may have been a great rushing team last year but the odds they are #1 in efficiency again and run for 5.4 yards per carry are not good at all.

So far IMO we have a small expected gain in the defense and a small dropoff in the offense. I don’t see much improvement yet that leads me to believe this team will vault to 8-8 or better. I have mentioned in past years I don’t put nearly as much stock into the coming schedule as most people because who really knows what team will be good and what teams will be completely ravaged by injuries and look different by November. Having said that the Panthers upcoming schedule is very tough. Carolina only plays 4 games this season against teams that had losing records last year and I expect all of those teams to be improved this year (Tampa for sure and KC and SEA marginally). Last season Carolina amassed 6 wins but let’s stop for a minute and look at who they beat. They beat one team with a winning record and that was against Houston the week after the Texans engineered a big comeback win on the road to clinch their first ever division title, that game was a massive flat spot for Houston. Carolina’s other 5 wins came against Tampa Bay (twice), Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Washington……4 of the worst 6 or 7 teams in the league and teams that finished 4-12, 4-12, 2-14, 5-11, and 5-11.

Finally we have to talk about expectations. When many of these teams come off the scrap heap when they are expected to be shit  the next year all of a sudden the expectations are raised tremendously and almost every year many of those teams (see TB and KC in 2011) are not able to handle them and they fall apart. With raised expectations comes pressure, a tougher schedule, and teams not taking you lightly anymore, and often times teams are vastly overrated simply because the perception is they “improved greatly” from their scrap heap years. While Carolina may not have come off the scrap heap and competed for a playoff spot last year this is an unusual 6-10 team because of the performance of the offense. Their performance and Newton has put this team in the spotlight and raised expectations to the point where they may be a “sexy sleeper” before the season. I’m not buying it, I think this team is in for another 6-10 year. Last year was the year to bet this group OVER when everyone thought they were trash.

i don't play season totals but i look at them to get an early read on who will be over/under valued.  i was hoping this would be in th 7-/8 range.  i expect carolina's 2012 season to be comparable to buffalo's second half in 2011.  not as many losses, but a team that struggles with an overrated offense and a terrible defense.   i'll be interested to see how newton handles a better than expected rookie season.  sometimes, these rookies get convicned by a good rookie season that they have it all figured out and don't need to work harder the next season when teams have an entire offseason to make adjustments. 

Miami Dolphins UNDER 7.5

This line is getting juicy but this number does not make any sense to me. Miami finished 6-10 last year and while they may be getting credit for a strong finish, there are always dumpster teams that get hot late after starting out horribly after they have fallen off the radar. Where in the hell has this team improved enough to finish .500?

The Fish brought in a new coach in Joe Philbin. I’m not totally sure what to make out of this guy until I’ve seen him in action but his only experience at the NFL level was an offensive coordinator for Green Bay for the last 4 years and let’s be honest that is hardly a tough job. Does anyone think Aaron Rodgers and the Packers
will miss a beat this season?  I get scared of these offensive coordinators who suddenly become head coaches after piloting offenses led by superstar QB’s. I keep getting flashbacks to Charlie Weis and Josh McDaniels.

Offensively this team is garbage IMO. This is easily the worst group of pass catchers in the league and there is not a single player that I would deem a playmaker or gamebreaker that will be catching passes after dumping Brandon Marshall last year. Not only do they not have any receivers but it is highly debatable as to whether
they have a QB either. Matt Moore and Ryan Tannehill will be battling for that role. Moore was serviceable last year managing the game but this isn’t a guy that is going to go out and win games for you and the team isn’t good enough around him for Moore to play the Alex Smith role. I look at Moore’s stats from last year and see
that he only completed more than 60% of his passes in 6 of 13 games and also only threw for more than 6.5 YPA in 6 of 13 games and I shudder. This guy isn’t very good and without any receivers this team is in big trouble if they get down and have to pass their way back into a game. Moore may be warming the seat for Tannehill but how much better will he be with no receivers? I also have doubts about a rookie coming in and succeeding right away in the NFL after only playing the QB position for 2 years. If both of those options fail the Dolphins can lean on David Garrard which is good for an Under bet. This team does have a decent rushing offense but I am not overly impressed with Daniel Thomas and the odds of Reggie Bush staying healthy for a second year in a row are about the same as James Harrison not getting fined this year.

Miami did have a good defense last year though that was largely due to a good run defense. Their pass defense was middle of the pack in efficiency and YPA. My problem with this group is that the new coaching staff is taking a team that was 6th in points against last year and is converting them from a 3-4 to a 4-3. I just don’t see
the upside in making that move. The unit was serviceable to begin with and the reason why they finished the way they did. Now they are taking players who have traditionally fit the 3-4 scheme (ex: Cam Wake) and converting them to 4-3 players? I don’t like it and think it will be an awkward adjustment. Its one thing to change a bad defense but that wasn’t the case with this group.

I don’t see a single area where this team improved from last year. One of the reasons they snuck up on teams late last year was because they buried themselves with an 0-7 start and were off the radar. They started 0-7 because they weren’t good to begin with. Their defense is going to go through a period of transition and IMO the offense will be one of the worst in the league, bordering on anemic in fact. To think this team has improved by 2 games in a tough division where they are the clear 4th fiddle is asking way too much. This is a 5-11 team.



I have bet 3 Overs and am looking at one more but do not have time to do writeups at the moment but will get to them eventually.

Very good point and I think this is also one of the reasons that the young teams that come off the scrap heap and compete one year often fall back the next. Coupled with the expectations these players and teams hear all offseason and training camp how good they are going to be this year. The NFL is a tough sport and if you believe you're own press clippings (especially a young team or player) and don't continue to work you will be hit in the mouth.

I have read the stories about how hard Newton has worked this offseason but I guess we will see. What player has not said that heading into a year? I bet if you flashed back to last year Josh Freeman was saying the same things. I didn't like Newton's body language at times when they were losing last year and he often sat alone on the bench with a towel over his head pouting. If he has not matured and if Carolina starts slowly the media and fans will be all over Newton and this team like vultures.

The perception of Newton and the Panthers has changed dramatically. I bought low last year by taking Carolina Over season wins and got Cam Newton as a free agent in many fantasy leagues. This year I am selling high on both.

freeman is a good comparison.  there was more going on with that team but i did not see his massive decline coming.  but like you said, if you're a young player and you start believing your hype early on, there's going to be trouble.  i think fitzpatrick was another one.  ryan fitzpatrick, for god's sake, was leading an offense that was scoring 30+ a game in the first half.  adjustments were made by other teams and they went from 30+ to scoring in the teens on average in the second half of the season.  couple that with a shit defense and your team isn't winning many games.  that's what i see for carolina.

i have no clue what tampa is going to do, although i wouldn't be optimistic if i was a tampa fan.

i haevn't looked at miami much but that offense is a mess.  i said early last season that sparano was one of the worst head coaches in the league.that's no longer a problem but who knows how much that area is improved.  that's still a tough division.  new england will always compete, the jets have more talent than miami and i see buffalo as being improved.  miami has to be the favorite to wind up in last place in that division.

sicne you started this thread, i went ahead and lookd at pinnacle just to see what the numbers were.

green bay and detroi look high at 12 and 9-.  both have horrible defenses and both are overvalued teams.  green bay because people put too much emphasis on offense and not enough on defense and special teams.  detroit for the same reason plus they aqre a favorite up and coming team but they will go nowhere with a bad defense and inconsistent coaching. 

i rated houston as the second best team in the league at the end of last season.  i think 10 is fair and they could easily win 11-12 if shaub stays healthy.  of course, that's a big if and i won't tie up any money for an entire season hoping he stays healthy.

i think pittsburgh and p[hilly are too high at 10.  why would philly be any less of a mess this season than they were last season with vick one year older.  i also thought i read that pittsburgh was one of the oldest, if not the oldest, teams in the league last season.  i wouldn't be surprised to see an 8-8 season out of them.

i think seattle and st louis are too low at 7 and 6.  seattle finished strong last season and brings in flynn.  he's a big question mark but i like guys who have sat behind a good, intelligent qb to learn the game.  that's what rodgers did.  st. louis's season ended before it started last year.  they were ravished by injuries all over the field.  i think the 6 is an overreaction. 

Agree the Panthers are being hyped a little too much and I am def looking at the under for them

Panthers are so Overrated coming into this season

Really like Seattle O7...............should be able to go at least 4-2 in division & have a fairly easy schedule with Carolina, Detroit, Miami, Buffalo, & Minny. If the OL can stay healthy for once this is a playoff squad. With their D & run game they don't need Flynn to set any passing records.

I would say you made an excellent point about Carolina beating some terrible teams. interesting to see them so high in points - Cam was stellar in fantasy this past year. I should have bet more on them last year but did not for whatever reason. 

gold rush, stafford is a very good young qb and calvin johnson is as good as it gets.  i'm not worried about their offense at all.  coaching and defense were huge problems last year.  maybe they figure it out this season but their coaching and defense weren't just bad, they were terrible.  i wouldn't bet on a major improvement but if they do make that move to the next level, then i agree, they could be as good as anyone. 

i like the saints under 10 wins, people just dont realize how much not having payton on the sideline will hurt this team....also gotta worry about how unhappy brees is knowing the front office is treating him like shit..

schedule wise, i dont see them sweeping any of their division opponents (3 losses), also face the nfc east (coin flip for most games), at green bay, and the get the afc west....i see this team finishing between 7-9 and 9-7

i had the saints rated as the best team in the league at the end of last season but no way in hell would i bet them over with the issues they have.  i'm not sure there is any precedent for a team to deal with those kinds of issues. 

I'm not absolutely positive about the # but off the top of my head I think the Jets are sitting at 8.5 with the over juiced. We've had a back and forth on them already, I'm much lower on them this year even than I was in the past. I would be absolutely floored if this team won more than 7 games, right now I'd say this franchise is about 10 games away from realizing it needs a total systemic reboot.

any opinions about Buffalo at 7.5. I think their defense is significantly improved. I think the main question is Ryan Fitzpatrick, and getting Spiller more touches somehow. i would think their is value at over 7.5.I think anderson and williams will help make marcel dareus a beast. Also think that will help protect the secondary.I think it is possible they could win last 7 (Mia,@ind,jax,stl, sea,@mia, ny jets)

Like both of these plays buddy.

Looking hard at KC to win division and Jags Under 5.5 also.

looking forward to football season again mac..

St. Louis Rams OVER 6

Flashback to this time last year and the Rams were an up and coming team that had just finished the season with a chance to win the division. This team was not seen as anywhere near the doormat that they are now. So what went wrong? The main thing was injuries. Every year there are a couple of teams in this league that are completely ravaged by injuries and have their seasons ruined, last year the Rams were one of those teams. St. Louis finished the year with 17 guys in injured reserve but more importantly the injuries were impactful injuries. They lost 6 cornerbacks including 4 guys who started, they lost 4 WR (and 1 TE), and they lost 3 starters on the offensive line. When a team gets cluster injuries like that where entire units are wiped out it is nearly impossible to survive. On top of that the man who plays the most important position in sports on this team was banged up for most of the year. He sustained a high ankle sprain early, tried to play through it,
eventually aggravated it and was nowhere near the player he was in 2010. Making matters worse for Bradford was his #1 receiver went down in the first game of the year, the offensive line had to be shuffled almost every week and he had less than a full offseason to learn Josh McDaniels’ (the turd) offense. So what I’m going
to do is take the Rams 2011 season wrap that sucker up into a nice ball and throw it clear out the window, it means nothing. In fact, I’d argue that long term the Rams will be better off that 2011 happened. It will have taught a young team how to adjust to injuries and it gave them some outstanding draft picks.

I think the 2012 Rams will be very similar to the 2010 Rams. A young team with some talent that can make some noise. Sam Bradford has a bright future in this league and in a season where he stays healthy and has no Josh McDaniels in sight I think he can continue his progression. They have talent in the backfield, the offensive line should be much better with everyone healthy and bringing in veteran center Scott Wells from Green Bay who made the Pro Bowl last year. There are no stars at receiver and TE but they have a lot of prospects they are high on, especially this year’s draft picks Quick and Givens. Having Amendola back who was Bradford’s safety valve in 2010 will also be a huge boost.

Their run defense was not good last season though should be improved with 1st round pick Michael Brockers in there at DT. Considering the Rams lost basically every CB that suited up last year it is a minor miracle they finished slightly below average in almost every passing category defensively. A healthy secondary with the addition of a solid starter in Cortland Finnegan should pair well with what I think is a pretty good pass rush. Chris Long made the Pro Bowl last year and on the other side the Rams will be counting on 2011 1st round pick Robert Quinn who is a physical freak and had 6 sacks and 3 blocked kicks last year despite playing just 48% of the teams’ defensive snaps.

While I believe Jeff Fisher is overrated as a head coach I do like the move to bring him in. He always seems to be an overachiever and gets more out of teams and players when not much is expected. He also seems to underachieve with teams expected to do well which is why I believe overall he is overrated but that scenario doesn’t apply here. This is the youngest roster in the league and there is a lot of talent here, more talent than when they went 7-9 in 2010, and I believe if they can stay healthy they can sneak up on a lot of people this year and maybe even compete for a playoff spot.


I have two more Over tickets but have yet to find the time or motivation to do writeups.

Thu Cansus Sity Chefs r not wining thu AFC Weest. Know way they r going 2 winnit. Is that better grammar 4 u????