NFL Season Win Totals

My take, Carolina defence will stink again. will be no better then NO. but the offence will score plenty of points. Tolbert from SD will be a beast in the backfield with stewart and williams. Chud will use him like NO uses Sproles.

Some good stuff being thrown around in this thread about the upcoming season. I finally got a chance to finish throwing down my thoughts on all the bets I've made so far:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 6

This is sort of becoming a trendy bet but I believe there is a lot of young talent on this team and a new coach like Schiano with a bit of a hardass mentality will whip these kids into shape and keep them in line. Was Tampa as good as their 10-6 record in 2010? Hell no. Were they as bad as 4-12 last year? Hell no. The 2011 Bucs
were like a lot of teams that come off the doormat, catch fire, and overachieve in the previous year:  The next year they fall on their face. It happens year after year after year in the NFL (I think it happens this year too, see below). And most of it is because the expectations get raised, the schedule gets tougher, luck runs
out, injuries catch up, teams regress to their true mean etc, etc, etc. The Bucs started good last year but injuries caught up to them and once they faced some real adversity they were like a lot of young teams and couldn’t handle it and they eventually quit. Now nobody really expects anything from this bunch and they can play
loose and overachieve again with a new coach and new attitude.

There is a lot of talent on this club. They have drafted well the last few years and if they stay healthy this season I expect it to come together. I still think Freeman can be a quality QB, him and Mike Williams are looking for big bounce back years. Tampa had a pretty decent offensive line and they only got better by bringing in the best guard in football in Carl Nicks from the Saints. If you throw a motivated (and by all accounts much more in shape) Josh Freeman behind a good offensive line with Blount and a guy Tampa loves in Doug Martin in the backfield to go with a motivated Mike Williams, improving Arrelious Benn, and downfield threat in Vincent Jackson and I think suddenly you have the pieces for a good offense. Defensively they were a disaster last year although they had a lot of injuries on that side of the ball. They had another good defensive draft and the guys who played last year gained a lot of experience. I don’t think this will be a dominant unit but they should be much improved, especially if Gerald McCoy stays healthy. New attitude, improvements on both sides of the ball, and absolutely no expectations usually lead to improved teams unless injuries hit them so I think the Bucs can significantly improve on their 4 wins from last year.

San Francisco 49ers UNDER 10

This is the group last season that caught fire, maximized their luck, had no expectations, and greatly overachieved. This is your classic candidate to come back to earth and fall on their face. San Fran does have quite a bit of talent though, however history is not kind to these types of teams. I saw a stat where teams that improve their win total by 7 or more games from one year to the next drop off in the 3rd year by almost 5 full wins.

Let’s address one thing from the 2010 6-10 49ers to the 2011 13-3 49ers. The 2010 49ers averaged 5.3 YPP and gave up 5.1 YPP, likely indicative of a .500 team so not as bad as their 6-10 record. So then last year they average 5.1 YPP and give up 5.0 which is actually worse than 2010 and a huge red flag. How the hell did they
improve by 7 full wins by not really outplaying their opponents any more efficiently??!? They caught the magic carpet ride and rode that sucker hard. They were insanely fortunate in departments that are highly variable from year to year. Teams that often do very well in these departments tend to regress to the mean next year or even go the other way.  A +28 turnover ratio is insane and completely unsustainable. I’ve been tracking for a long while now and teams that finish +10 or more usually win on average 3 games less the next year.  The odds that they recover 38 turnovers again this season are highly unlikely despite what fans may think
about how hard hitting their defense is. This is a questionable secondary as well as they gave up boatloads of yardage to good offenses last year but were bailed out by turnovers, so what if they don’t get turnovers like that this season which history suggests they won’t? The odds of the offense also only giving the ball
away 10 times too are very remote. Alex Smith will not have anywhere near a 1.1 INT % again, that is just random variance and he will most certainly get worse there. Even for a “game manager” that is an unsustainable rate. This team also didn’t bring in Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and use a 1st round pick on a WR to play the same style they did last year. They will get away from what they did well last year, trying to force the passing game and take more chances downfield and they will commit more turnovers as a result. The special teams may be good once again this year but the chances Akers has a year anywhere near what he did last season are once again just not very good. Finally this is one thing that is often overlooked on good teams like this which is that they get a very lucky run in the health department and did SF ever luck out last year. I believe they only had 2 guys on IR last season and the only significant player was Josh Morgan. On top of that every single
defensive player played at least 13 games which is unheard of in a physical sport like the NFL. Imagine this team having so few injuries while others like Jacksonville, St. Louis, and Tampa had whole units with more guys on IR than SF’s whole team. Once again, that is high variance and the odds that SF is anywhere near that fortunate in the health department again are slim to none.

Those are three categories where the Niners essentially maxed out last season and when that happens you can overachieve and look much better than you really are. They will regress in all of those departments this year and perhaps significantly. Before you know it with that regression they will be 4 wins worse and a 9-7 team which
the baseline hard numbers suggest that they probably were last year. But on top of all this you have those bloody expectations this season, all that pressure, a 1st place schedule, and instead of teams possibly overlooking  you they instead give you their best shot. It is virtually impossible to catch lightning in a bottle this
season because that type of success is expected. Last year at this time a lot of people thought this would be one of the worst teams in the league and now here we are entering the 2012 season with them listed as the 3rd favorite for the Super Bowl. Year after year after year these out of nowhere overachieving teams take a big step
back in Year #2 and I say the same thing before every season usually betting against these teams and invariably we get to January with people wondering why Team X was such a disappointment. SF has some talent but history and the roll of the dice are most certainly not on their side. Too often teams bring all these free agents to improve a unit like SF has with the offense and they don’t mesh well and end up busting.

Dallas Cowboys OVER 8.5

Yes, I am betting a public team and chronic underachiever in a tough division to go Over. I like this Cowboys team. I could be crazy but when I see an 8.5 here and a 10 with Philadelphia I see value with what I think are two even teams. The Cowboys finished 8-8 last season despite playing a ton of close games and a horrendous
secondary costing them several times in the 4th quarter. They have made big upgrades in that department and it could be enough to turn those tough losses into wins and push them over the edge. Of the Cowboys 8 losses last year they didn’t care about 1 (Week 16) they were blown out on two Sunday Night road games and the rest they lost by 4 points or less or in OT. They were only really non-competitive twice last season and in both instances they were on the road in big-time environments.

This season a young offensive line gets a year older and the offense should be good again. They do lose Robinson at WR but providing Miles Austin can stay healthy this year they shouldn’t lose much in terms of overall production. They should also get full years out of Murray and Jones in the backfield. The big changes come in the secondary where they probably can’t help but be better. They also cut deadweight old guys at LB in Keith Brooking and Bradie James. Last year Dallas was Top 5 in offensive passing efficiency, Top 10 in rushing efficiency, and Top 12 in defensive rush efficiency…..excellent all around units there but the problem was the secondary was horrendous giving up big plays at key times and ranking 25th in defensive passing efficiency. If this revamped secondary can even be average and Romo stays healthy this is a team that could turn those close losses into wins and possibly get to 11-5ish despite a talented division. Jason Garrett also made some big blunders last season, that’s not always easy to fix but if he can cut down on those the Cowboys should be in good shape. This is the type of team I like to look at when looking for a middle of the road team to finally come up to the top and make a real splash because people see them as an underachieving older team but in reality they have a lot of very good young players and have that great balance of skilled young talent and good veteran presence. This team reminds me a lot of Houston last year. They had all the older guys that had been close before but it wasn’t until they brought in an influx of matching young talent and revamped a horrible unit (defense) that they took the next step.

Atlanta  to win NFC South +125 (0.75 units)

Tampa Bay to win NFC South +1650 (0.25 units)

I took a unit and threw 3 quarters of it on the Falcons and the other on the Bucs. I’m starting to get the feeling that the Saints will run out of gas as the year goes on. It’s tough to bet against a Drew Brees team but Brees and this team have been through an offseason unlike any other. They’ve lost their coach and GM and will
have two different interim coaches for stretches this year, that’s real tough. There has been a big black cloud hanging over this team and while they may be able to hold it off for a while with the “us against them” attitude, I don’t believe they will be able to keep it up for the full course of a grueling NFL season. And let’s not underestimate how much losing Payton could hurt this offense. Payton and Brees are basically blood brothers as they make up the game plan each week together and we’ve watched them do some things offensively over the last 3-4 years that have never been done before. After every drive the last 3-4 years whether they scored or not Brees would run over to Payton and they would be going over the sheets religiously, we’ve all seen how tight these guys were.

I’ve not been a fan of this Falcons team and have cashed tickets fading them in the playoffs all 3 times they’ve been there in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era but the fact remains they have been a good regular season squad finishing with records of 10-6, 13-3, and 11-5 in seasons in which Matt Ryan played every game and they were
9-5 in games he started the year he got hurt. Another year with Julio Jones and the downfield passing game + bringing in Asante Samuel could give this group the real playmakers they’ve been missing. This team still has to show me a lot to prove they can win a playoff game but if the Saints falter I think they can get this
division. Additionally, this team is pretty under the radar this year. The talk in the division is about New Orleans and Carolina and everyone seems to be off the Falcons after their playoff embarrassments and coaching ineptitude of the last 2 years. This team has consistently been good the last 4 years winning almost 70% of the regular season games Matt Ryan has started and with that kind of track record they deserve a little more respect than currently being listed as the 14th favorite for the Super Bowl!

Not much more to say about Tampa. I expect them to improve and in a historical worst to first division they are worth a small shot.


Pittsburgh Steelers to win AFC North +125

Not much to say here. I think Baltimore and Cincinnati are both quite a bit weaker than last season and Cleveland is not going to challenge for the division. Pittsburgh has a bad taste in their mouths after last year and will be looking to bounce back. Mike Wallace will eventually report and with perhaps finally a half decent offensive line for Big Ben this offense has a chance to show what it can do. Keep an eye on Emmanuel Sanders at WR. Pittsburgh liked him more than Antonio Brown but injuries ruined him last year. The defense looks older but this team has quietly drafted replacements the last few years for some of their older guys and will be able to plug new guys in because this is a winning, first class organization from top to bottom and those types of organizations always know how to build teams and find players.


That is most likely it for me. Flirted with ARZ + OAK UNDER and JAX OVER but will most likely pass unless there are big moves. May look at SF NOT to win the division as well but we'll see.

GL this season.

Michfan15 - I was looking at that Cards Under myself. But like Dirt says a couple posts down it's tough to lay -150 on Under 7. If it was 7.5 I would do it no question. Skelton or Kolb doesn't make a difference to me, they both have a hell of a lot to prove especially behind an offensive line that has been bad for years. Wells and Williams show hope in the run game but both are coming off major knee surgeries. Williams missed all of last year and Beanie had surgery in January and is still on the PUP list. They have some pieces on defense but it just doesn't seem like a complete unit. I also look at last year and see they did not win a single game by more than 7 points and went 4-0 in OT and won two games on Patrick Peterson punt returns. They had a real roll of good fortune there, a break the other way in a couple of those games and they are looking at a 6-10 team. I think every team in the division is better than Arizona.

BarrelledIn - I've been betting season win totals and posting them on this site since I joined and never had a losing season with them and the whole time I've put exactly the same amount of weight into the schedule: None or very little. Why would I sit here in the summer and try to figure out if a game in November or December is winnable in a league like this where teams are destroyed by injuries, stars emerge and we never really know what to expect? And perhaps most importantly we don't know what situation a team will be in for any particular game. I just don't weight bets based on the schedule. This time last year were you counting Indianapolis as a loss for your team, or what about San Fran as a win? The oddsmakers can put weight into the schedule, I like to focus more on intangible things and factors which teams can control (the players/coaches/systems they have) vs. those they cannot (who they happen to play). I'm not saying it doesn't work for everyone but it certainly doesn't for me.

KittyKatz286 - It depends what you want to bet. I try to bet early to get good numbers and so far I have better than or equal to what is currently avaliable on everything except the Panthers Under so it seems to have worked for me again. Public money doesn't really move numbers, it may help set them but it doesn't move them so it's tough trying to figure out where they may go. See Post #44.

iamnotpeterose - I think Green Bay will be better than last year but that's more for playoff time. Too many variables to go Over 12 for the regular season so I would agree with you and go Under or nothing.

Hey, hey man good to see you around. Hope you had a good offseason brother. I look forward to talking some pigskin this year. I will be cutting down on the posts/writeups though this year. Kept it long for the win totals because it's early and I need some NFL football.

Yeah man I got my ass kicked last year. Won the Win totals, Preseason, and Playoffs but had a bad regular season my first losing one in the NFL. Had a lot of personal stuff going on, tried to quit then came back and bled out more money but oddly felt like I learned more last year than any other season. Shouldn't have many distractions this year and hope the bleed the book instead of the other way around. I'll probably be doing the same thing buddy in cutting # of bets but increasing % on them. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

Always enjoy reading your opinions Jerry. You're probably right, maybe the transition won't be as bad as I thought and there are some vibes coming out of the Fins camp. I just really think this offense is going to be bad. They will need an excellent defense to win 8 games, I think it's a crazy number. If the defense falters this team could be in trouble.

Will be reading your thoughts this year.

Solid post. I can respect a man that looks at his team objectively (aside from maybe the 12-4 stuff, that may be a big stretch).

"If the Panthers offense proves to be for real"

My question is didn't they prove they were real last year? I don't think anyone thinks this is a bad offense. The major questions are on defense and team mindset in my eyes. The problem I have offensively is where do they really improve leaps and bounds? I mean they finished #5 in points scored last year and the teams in front of them had QB's who could take their team and methodically drive their teams down the field and score. Carolina relied heavily on the big play in the passing game last year and that worries me. I also don't think they can improve in the run game. They may be very good again but they were extraordinarily efficient last year and it will be tough to be better. Remember to improve two full wins you need to substantially improve in multiple areas. I just think the offense plateaued and maybe overachieved. Are the potential gains on special teams and defense (marginally) enough to offset a level offense and the fact they didn't beat anybody at all last year?

 

I'm with you on Tampa improving this season and the 49ers regressing.

Also with you on the Cowboys who will be one of my surprise teams of the year. The Cowboys out-played their opponents last season by a much larger margin than their record indicates.

Also like the Jags over.

But will disagree on the Raiders. I know your not making a play on them.

In 2010 the 49ers finished the season as the most undervalued team in the league, meaning they played much better than they looked as you already pointed out and my method confirms this.

Because of that they were one of my surprise teams of the year last season.

In 2011 the Raiders finished the season as the most undervalued team in the league by a wide margin and the most undervalued team I can remember to finish the season.

This would suggest the Raiders played far better than they looked last season.  I'm not sure they helped themselves any this off season but they could be this seasons 49ers.

Good Luck and enjoy the upcoming season..................................

Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 6





I really like this bet , Andy 

definitely like the tampa over 

good optimistic article re: tampa bucs

wow Andarmac 99, fantastic write ups...  thanks for all you time, energy, and insights... i too have been looking the Bucs over... i'm a NJ guy and i think Schiano alone is good for an extra win or two... seems like the first few games could make or break the bet... if they can steal one of the first 3, they could be looking at 2-2 and well on their way to a cover.... San Fran under also very intriguing... i make one O/U bet a year but i may be inclined to play both of these... i was at the Eagles/49ers game last year that saw the Eagles turn it over 4 times and surrender a 20 point 4th quarter lead!  you are right, thats the kind of gold the 49ers found all year long... very tough to enjoy that kind of fortune two years in a row... anyway, thanks again for the great write-ups !