NFL SUN INFO

The USA TODAY reports that Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts is 21-1
over his last 22 regular season starts with the Eagles. Yeah, that’s
impressive. But we’ll put on our horns, tighten up our chinstraps,
and look to stop that trend in its tracks. Hurts’ skein improved
last week when PK Jake Elliott drilled a 54-yarder in overtime
to keep the 4-0 Eagles perfect on the season. A deep dive
into the stats, though, does not see a team that has remained
unscathed to this point. They surrendered a season-high 382
yards in a season-opening win against New England. In addition,
three of their four wins have been one-score contests. And the
MIDWEEK ALERT jumps on the pile, noting it’s the Rams who
own the better offense and the better defense in this matchup.
Meanwhile, the Rams take the fi eld sporting a 6-1 ATS ledger
in games when both teams are coming off wins as favorites. On
the other side of the coin, Philly tends to falter in games against
the NFC West, going 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS in the past twenty-fi ve
contests. When the 2-2 Rams get Cooper Kupp back, it will be a
scary tandem alongside rookie Puka Nacua. Nacua had another
monster game after totaling 25 catches for 266 yards over the fi rst
two weeks, notching nine receptions for 163 yards last Sunday in
Los Angeles’ overtime win at Indianapolis. by Playbook

Jacksonville over Buffalo by 3

The Bills checked a major box when they maimed Miami in a 48-
20 beatdown in Buffalo last Sunday. With it, they travel to London
knowing that teams who will be dining on authentic Fish & Chips this
week are 5-5-1 SU and 4-7 ATS all-time when arriving off a victory
against a division foe, including 0-3 SUATS versus opponents coming
off a win of seven-plus points. In addition, Buffy also checks in with a
3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS record in games against the AFC South, including
0-4 SUATS outside of Buffalo. In addition, the Bills are only 3-7 SU
and 1-9 ATS when riding a 3-game SUATS win skein and facing
.500 or better non-division opposition. Meanwhile, the Jags head to
Tottenham Hot Spur Stadium today from the same hotel they were
camped in last week, in this the second of consecutive games in London
for Jacksonville. And Jaguars’ quarterback Trevor Lawrence brings a
6-2 ATS career mark in the NFL into this game against foes coming off
a double-digit win. In closing, remember this: The Bills became only
the ninth team in our database, which dates back to 1980, to win and
beat the spread by 20-plus points in three straight games in its 48-20
beatdown of the Dolphins. FYI: Seven of those eight squads played the
following week and proceeded to go 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS in the fourth
leg of the assaults, including 4-1 SU but only 1-4 ATS when facing a foe
coming off a win. Toodle-oo and grab the points. by Playbook

The Patriots returned home off the worst loss in Bill Belichick’s
career in a 38-3 dismantling at Dallas last week, and that sets the
table today. It’s sad watching Bill Belichick on the New England
sideline, waiting for his offense to produce any semblance of
an attack. The defense has held three opponents to season-low
yards and basically keeps them in the game. Today, though, The
Hoodie fi gures to dig deep into his magic bag of tricks as this
troops are 18-5 SUATS in his NFL career when coming off an ATS
loss of -20 or more points. He’s also 9-2 SU at home when coming
off a pair of previous home losses, including 4-0 ATS when not
favored by three or more points. Tack on the Pats’ 7-1 ATS log
in games when both teams arrive off SUATS losses, and you can
see where we’re going here. New Orleans’ naughty 2-9 ATS mark
in games after taking on Tampa Bay adds to the mix. We save
the best for last, though: THE CLINCHER: Bill Belichick is 15-4
SUATS when coming off a loss of 19+ points, including 6-0
SUATS at home. by Playbook

The Broncos avoided hitting the panic button when they
rallied from a 17-point 4Q defi cit to edge the Bears last week.
Meanwhile, the Jets blew two scoring opportunities in the 4Q in
a furious comeback effort against the Chiefs last week. Kendall
Baker of Yahoo AM had the line of the week when he said that
Jets’ QB Zach Wilson, who is on record saying that he prefers
older women, “played well in front of Donna Kelce – I mean
Taylor Swift – but it wasn’t enough to beat the defending Super
Bowl champs” last week. It was a ‘moral victory’ and at this stage
of the game, the Jets will take anything they can get. Wilson
completed 28-of-39 attempts for 245 yards and two touchdowns
and outplayed Patrick Mahomes. The MIDWEEK ALERT chips in
here, noting that Denver ranks dead last in overall defense while
being outstatted -128 net yards per game. They also allow foes
to chew them up on the ground, surrendering 5.6 Yards Per Rush.
With no Swiftie distractions for the Flyboys today, we hand it off
to THE CLINCHER: The Broncos are 1-14 ATS as a favorite
if they were a favorite in their previous game, including
0-12 ATS when they have at least one loss on the season. by Playbook

The Detroit Liions are favored by more points today than they have been in the last 106 games.</

Money Line: Tennessee Titans (-135) ; Indianapolis Colts (+115)
Total: 43; Opened: 41.5
FPI favorite: Titans by 2 (55.7% to win outright)

Line Movement Alert: Opened Colts -1

Betting Nuggets

• The Titans have covered nine straight games in October. They are 11-2 ATS in October since 2020, 9-1 ATS since 2021 and 5-0 ATS since last season.
• The Colts are 1-6 ATS as favorites since the start of last season. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.
• The Colts are 6-14 ATS in division games since 2020.

[image from unapproved source][image from unapproved source]New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins -12.5
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Money Line: New York Giants (+550) ; Miami Dolphins (-800)
Total: 47.5; Opened: 47.5
FPI favorite: Dolphins by 15.5 (87% to win outright)

Line Movement Alert: Opened Dolphins -10

Betting Nuggets

• Daniel Jones is 18-9 ATS on the road and 17-6 ATS as a road underdog.
• Tua Tagovailoa is 8-3 ATS as a home favorite.
• The Giants are 5-0 ATS in non-conference games under Brian Daboll.
• The Dolphins are 1-8-1 ATS in October since 2021.

Money Line: New Orleans Saints (-110) ; New England Patriots (-110)
Total: 39; Opened: 38.5
FPI favorite: Patriots by 1.3 (53.9% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

• All four Saints games have gone under the total this season. 
• Mac Jones is 12-7-1 ATS as a favorite including 5-1 ATS in his past six.
• Over the last 10 seasons, the Saints are 26-10 ATS in October, while the Patriots are 26-14 ATS. The two best records in the NFL in that span.

[image from unapproved source][image from unapproved source]Baltimore Ravens -4 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Money Line: Baltimore Ravens (-220) ; Pittsburgh Steelers (+180)
Total: 38; Opened: 38
FPI favorite: Ravens by 8 (71.9% to win outright)

Line Movement Alert: Opened Ravens -2

Betting Nuggets

• Lamar Jackson is 20-9-2 ATS in his career on the road.
• The Steelers have covered four straight games after a loss.
• The Ravens are 9-17 ATS as favorites over the past three seasons.

Money Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-210) ; Los Angeles Rams (+175)
Total: 50.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Eagles by 1.9 (55.6% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

• The Eagles are 12-2-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
• Overs are 10-4 in Jalen Hurts' last 14 starts.
• This is the 25th consecutive start regular-season Jalen Hurts is favored in. Hurts is 23-2 outright and 13-10-2 ATS in his career as a favorite (22-2, 12-10-2 ATS during streak).
• Matthew Stafford is 11-20-1 ATS as a home underdog in his career (1-1-1 ATS with Rams).

[image from unapproved source][image from unapproved source]Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday 4:05 PM ET

Money Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-165) ; Arizona Cardinals (+140)
Total: 45; Opened: 42.5
FPI favorite: Bengals by 5.2 (64.9% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

• The Bengals are 14-7-1 ATS after a loss since drafting Joe Burrow in 2020 (Burrow is 12-5-1 ATS after a loss).
• The Cardinals are 16-8 ATS as underdogs over the past three seasons.
• Joe Burrow is 27-18-1 ATS in his career, but he is 0-3-1 ATS this season.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos -2.5
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday 4:25 PM ET

Money Line: New York Jets (+118) ; Denver Broncos (-140)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 40
FPI favorite: Jets by 1.6 (54.7% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

• The Broncos have covered 12 of the last 17 games against the Jets.
• Broncos games have gone over the total in three straight games and eight of the last nine games dating back to last season.
• The Jets have gone under the total in 12 of their past 16 games and seven of their past nine games.
• The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their past five games as a road underdog after starting last season 3-0 outright as a road underdog.

[image from unapproved source][image from unapproved source]Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Sunday 4:25 PM ET

Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-180) ; Minnesota Vikings (+152)
Total: 52.5; Opened: 51.5
FPI favorite: Chiefs by 6.5 (68.1% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

• The Vikings are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.
• The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Sunday 8:20 PM ET

Money Line: Dallas Cowboys (+158) ; San Francisco 49ers (-190)
Total: 45; Opened: 45
FPI favorite: 49ers by 1.8 (55.2% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

• Brock Purdy is 9-0 outright and 7-1-1 ATS in his career as a starter.
• The Cowboys have won and covered each of the last three meetings.
• Eight of the last 10 meetings between the 49ers and Cowboys have gone over the total.
• Dak Prescott is 15-10-1 ATS in his career as an underdog.

[image from unapproved source][image from unapproved source]Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders -1.5
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Monday 8:15 PM ET

Money Line: Green Bay Packers (+105) ; Las Vegas Raiders (-125)
Total: 44.5; Opened: NL
FPI favorite: Packers by 1.9 (55.5% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

• The Raiders are 0-3 ATS in their last three games. Josh McDaniels is 16-27 ATS in his last 43 games as a head coach (started 6-0 ATS).
• The Packers have covered each of the last five meetings.
• The Raiders are 4-0 ATS with extra rest under Josh McDaniels.

The Texans are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games

Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 10 games

I’m taking Houston. Ridder’s 12 Total QBR over the last two weeks is the worst of any quarterback with multiple starts over that span. He has been thoroughly outplayed by Texans’ rookie signal-caller C.J. Stroud, who has thrown zero interceptions in his first 151 pass attempts. That’s the third-most pass attempts without an interception to begin an NFL career in league history. His 1,212 passing yards are also second-most through four career games all-time.

The key to beating the Falcons is stopping the run. The Lions did so and they held Atlanta to six points in Week 3. The Jaguars accomplished the feat last Sunday in London and held the Falcons to a whopping seven points. I expect Houston to use a similar formula to beat Atlanta outright on Sunday.by A.Rome

Texans vs. Falcons NFL Prediction: Houston Texans +115

It’s often tough sledding for rookie quarterbacks, and Carolina’s Bryce Young is finding that out firsthand. Since 2000, rookie QBs that were picked #1 overall are 62-122-2 straight up in their first season. Making matters worse is Young’s small stature. Rookie QBs that are under 6 feet tall are 6-11 straight up since the beginning of 2020.

It doesn’t help that Bryce Young and Carolina are going up against one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL. The Lions rank 4th in opponent yards per play (4.5), 2nd in opponent yards per rushing attempt (3.0), and 8th in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.7) this season. On top of that, Detroit is averaging 3.3 sacks per game, which is tied for the 7th best mark in the league. The Lions are quarterbacked by the underrated Jared Goff who is 11th in the NFL in passer rating (98.4) and 6th in the league in total QBR (68.9) in 2023. The combination of Goff, the Lions’ defense, and the Ford Field home crowd should lead to Detroit winning this one by double digits. by A.Rome

Miami’s offense has been incredible this season. The Dolphins rank first in the NFL in yards per play (8.0), points per play (0.588), points per game (37.5), and offensive touchdowns per game (5.0). Miami should have no trouble scoring against a New York defense that ranks 23rd in opponent yards per play (5.6) and 30th in opponent points per play (0.500). 

What’s worse, the Giants will be missing the entire left side of their offensive line for this contest. New York allows QB Daniel Jones to be sacked a league-worst 14.65% of the time. Miami’s defense is 19th in sack percentage at 6.76%, but the Dolphins do create turnovers to the tune of 1.3 takeaways per game, a figure that ranks tied for 12th in the NFL. Giants QB Daniel Jones has lost an NFL-high 24 fumbles since he came into the league in 2019, and that combined with the fact that New York’s offensive line will be starting multiple backups means that there’s blowout potential here. I like the Dolphins to roll at home in this one.

Ravens vs. Steelers Betting Prediction:

These two teams consistently play each other closely. In fact, the margin of victory in the last 10 games between the Ravens and Steelers was 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4, 18, 3, 7, and 12 points. After getting blown out by the Texans last week, the Steelers also really need this game. Their desperation could lead to them playing better.

What’s more, the Steelers are 9-2-1 ATS as a home underdog since the beginning of the 2018 season. That’s the third-best mark in the NFL in that span. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as the head coach of the Steelers, a large part of that is bouncing back after losses. Mike Tomlin is 21-10 ATS as an underdog after a straight-up loss in his team’s previous game. I believe Tomlin’s team is being undervalued because they laid an egg against Houston last weekend. I like the Steelers to bounce back and keep this one within 4 points against their division rivals on Sunday. by A.Rome

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is 17-23 ATS in his career.

Trevor Lawrence is 24-16 to the under in his career.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 31-16-3 ATS on normal (6 days) rest.

Josh Allen is 24-16-3 ATS away from home.

Bills QB Josh Allen is still one of the best in the league this season. He and the Bills have appeared to right the ship after their odd loss to the Zach Wilson-led Jets in Week 1. Since that game, the Bills are 3-0 straight up with an average victory margin of 30 points per game. There’s also the fact that of Josh Allen’s 59 career wins as a starting QB, 45 of those have come by 7 points or more. Favorites have fared well outside the United States. The favorites are 26-14 ATS in international games since the NFL began playing games outside the USA. For all of those reasons, I’m laying the points with the Bills in London on Sunday morning. A.Rome

Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

The Titans are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games

The Over/Under has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games at home

Sorry for the cliché but…death, taxes and Titans over Colts. Tennessee has won five straight over Indianapolis, which is the Titans’ longest win streak in this series’ history. The Colts have also lost seven straight games at Lucas Oil Stadium, which is their longest losing streak since dropping eight consecutive home contests in 1991.

Taylor is eligible to return from the PUP list, but it sounds as if the Colts are undecided on whether or not he’ll play. What a mess. Even if he does suit up, Tennessee forces opponents to throw the ball by loading up against the run. As most games are involving the Titans, this one will be ugly but in the end, I see Tennessee coming through for backers. A.Rome

Titans vs. Colts NFL Prediction: TENNESSEE TITANS -2.5

By Brandon Anderson

There's no doubt Pittsburgh is banged up and that Matt Canada's offense looks completely outmatched, especially against a Baltimore defense playing really well. But you've been watching Steelers games long enough to know that doesn't matter much in this rivalry. Just play the spot.

This is exactly where we bet on Mike Tomlin — as an underdog, at home, in a division game, off a deflating loss. You always want the dog in this rivalry. When Tomlin and John Harbaugh face off, the underdog is 22-5-3 ATS (81%). And one of my favorite stats: Since 2005, underdogs in this rivalry, when the line is 3 or higher, are a 18-2 ATS (90%).

By Brandon Anderson

The Texans look for real, and they're just starting to get healthy. But I don't trust their run defense yet, especially in this matchup. I'll skip the side or moneyline so I don't have to worry about the D. Instead, I'll just focus on C.J. Stroud and the offense getting to 21, and at plus money to boot.

I'm going to play the Bijan Robinson rushing upside, too; I like it even in a big Texans game, and it's also a bit of insurance in case this goes Atlanta's way.

By Simon Hunter

Last week, I had I beg to you to take the Jets. Now I have to beg you to fade them.

There's way too much love for the Jets right now, all because Zach Wilson played the game of his career. Maybe he did find something last Sunday night — but I’m happy to play this number and say he hasn’t.

If you ever get to place a bet on a home team under a field goal against Wilson, you must blindly bet that number. Now you might say to yourself, "Denver has one of the worst defenses we’ve ever seen."

That could be true, but the Broncos still have some playmakers. This is a great get-right game for them. I love this matchup for Russell Wilson and this Sean Payton offense. They haven’t really faced a true top-10 defense yet.

With two desperate teams trying to avoid 1-4 starts, I’ll take the veteran quarterback and head coach every time in this spot. Give me Denver at anything below -3.

Indianapolis has the lowest blitz rate in the NFL. Its high pressure rate and low blitz rate allow them to pressure the quarterback while keeping backs in coverage. In addition, Tannehill has displayed poor decision making under duress.

Tannehill has thrown an interception in two of four games this season, including three in Week 1 vs. New Orleans. In that game against the Saints, all three interceptions were the result of a collapsed pocket from just a four-man rush.

The Titans offensive line has struggled, and Tannehill is paying the price as a result of that. I am banking on him to commit at least one turnover-worthy play.

TEN ML 7-0 7-0 RF VS AFC SOUTH

UN CINCI 5-0 L 5 ROAD

K.C. 1ST HALF 9-0 AS FAV

DALL UN 6-2 L 8

JETS +  DEN 0-10 FAV VS AFC TEAMS

@RLeith35

 These stats were racked up with the G.O.A.T all belly has now is a donkey.

Thank you for the information 

Great stuff as usual .. thanks 

how many of these games were with Brady as QB