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Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
The Vikings are in a do or die week 3. They face the possibility of going 0-3 and losing a division game in the same week. The Vikings have won the last 21 out of 23 games against the Lions and clearly have their number. Yes we can say this Lions team is a bit different this year but lets take a closer look. Week 1 they trampled the Buccaneers who aren't so good against the pass (27th) and were without their starting safety who is a big part of their pass coverage. Week 2 they faced the Chiefs and won by 45 but this number is very misleading. Anyone who watched the game would agree with me. The Chiefs marched up and down the field, had 151 rushing yards (despite losing their starting RB in the opening drive), and went 15-23 passing. The only problem is they had 6 turnovers. The Lions defense has many holes and cant stop the run against anyone while their cornerbacks are average at best. The vikings on the other hand have a much better defense. They gave up only 77 yards rushing on 27 attempts to the chargers and 330 passing yards to one of the best offenses in the league although it took 48 passing attempts to get those 330. In week 2, the Vikings out gained and outplayed the Bucs and held them to 0 points at halftime before self-destructing in the 2nd half. All this was without their star defensive tackle Kevin Williams who will be returning to the lineup for this game after finishing his 2-game suspension. Adrian Peterson will have a field day against the Lions below-average run defense putting McNabb (27-16 ATS after a loss) in 3rd and short situations all game. The Vikings getting 4 points at home is a steal. During writing this the line has also dropped from +4 to +3.5 despite over 90% of the action on the Lions. Remember early line movement is important, discard any late line movement though. Thank you NFL gamblers everywhere for hopping on your beloved Lions' bandwagon after 2 victories and giving Minnesota points at home in a division game. Your offense has tons of talent but your defense will still give up a lot of yardage this year. Another thing.... There are now 6 games this weekend with a 3.5 spread. Vegas has the Vikings at the least +odds than any other team. Quit thinking you guys are smarter than Vegas your not. Those of you saying the Lions are the play this weekend you can consider yourselves squares, win or lose the Vikings are the right play.
Vikings +153
Raiders +165
Rams +171
Seahawks +166
Bears +175
Jaguars +166
Pick: Vikings +3.5
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a very underrated team at this point. Their defense is better than most teams and their offense has enough talent to sustain drives. Andy Dalton has been very good as a rookie thus far and AJ Green is proving to be a very solid first round pick. If Dalton can go 27-41, 330 yards and 2 TD's against the Broncos, he should put up similar numbers against the 49ers weak secondary. This line IMO should be Bengals -4 at the least but thanks to the 49ers playing the Cowboys tough (boys QB throwing 2 picks in that game and cowboys had tons of players in their secondary who didn't play due to injuries) and Tedd Gynn Jr. blowing out the game against Seattle when they were winning by just 2 points late in the fourth quarter with his KR and PR for TD's. Yes the same sea hawks who have Tavaris Jackson and didn't even cross the 50 yard line till the 4th quarter last week. The 49ers gave up 6 sacks to the Cowboys and will have similar problems facing a pretty good Bengals defensive line. Frank Gore has had a very rough 2 starts this season because his offensive line is horrible and isn't opening up any lanes for him (and that was against much worse run defenses than the Bengals). With Gore limited and Alex Smith under tons of pressure, how will they sustain drives? The 49ers are coming off a very emotional loss losing in OT and won't be able to match their energy output from last week.
Pick: Bengals -2.5
Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans
I picked the Titans to win last week against the Ravens but only because they were out for revenge after the Ravens knocked them out of the playoffs a few years ago in a very controversial game where the Titans should have won. The Ravens were also in a letdown spot after demolishing their rival Steelers. That was a huge game to win for the Titans last week and I don't see them sustaining the same effort and energy this week. Just like the Ravens last week I expect the Titans to be in let-down mode somewhat and don't see them covering a 7 point spread against anyone this week. This is a bad spot for them while Orton will be playing away from home after his first win. Im sure he will have more confidence after notching that first win and getting away from all his Denver fans chanting "Tebow." Also this line is way too inflated. Remember teams are never as good or bad as they looked the week before.
Pick: Broncos +7
Pick: Broncos TT O 17?
Pick: Titans Broncos O 42
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
The chargers have one of the best offenses and defenses in the league but Norv Turner and this coaching staff fails to reach their teams potential. Despite having the #1 defense and #1 offense last year the Chargers missed the playoffs. Week after week you see the Chargers outplay their opponents due to their incredible talent, huge wide receivers, and stout defense yet fail to win or cover games because of their stupid play-calling, horrible coaches, and lack of discipline. Norv Turner has got to go. This team has so much potential I can't even begin to imagine what they could do if they had a solid game-plan going into a game to go along with some decent playcalling at the opponents redzone. I seriously think Norv Turner tells Rivers to just "find someone open and make a plan" every down. Anyways back to the matchup. Last week the Chargers again had 4 turnovers inside the patriots 35 yard line. Will the Chargers be turnover prone again this week? Will their playcalling be inept once again? Nothing makes me think that it wont be the same ol' chargers outplaying their opponent but coming up short where it matters the most. The Chiefs have a lot of injuries and won't be very good without Charlie Wies on their side this year but I see them covering this spread easily. The Chargers have been -14 or more 3 times this decade and failed to cover any of those games. Chargers laying -15 in September? Pfffft....
Pick: Chiefs +15
The Vikings are in a do or die week 3. They face the possibility of going 0-3 and losing a division game in the same week. The Vikings have won the last 21 out of 23 games against the Lions and clearly have their number. Yes we can say this Lions team is a bit different this year but lets take a closer look. Week 1 they trampled the Buccaneers who aren't so good against the pass (27th) and were without their starting safety who is a big part of their pass coverage. Week 2 they faced the Chiefs and won by 45 but this number is very misleading. Anyone who watched the game would agree with me. The Chiefs marched up and down the field, had 151 rushing yards (despite losing their starting RB in the opening drive), and went 15-23 passing. The only problem is they had 6 turnovers. The Lions defense has many holes and cant stop the run against anyone while their cornerbacks are average at best. The vikings on the other hand have a much better defense. They gave up only 77 yards rushing on 27 attempts to the chargers and 330 passing yards to one of the best offenses in the league although it took 48 passing attempts to get those 330. In week 2, the Vikings out gained and outplayed the Bucs and held them to 0 points at halftime before self-destructing in the 2nd half. All this was without their star defensive tackle Kevin Williams who will be returning to the lineup for this game after finishing his 2-game suspension. Adrian Peterson will have a field day against the Lions below-average run defense putting McNabb (27-16 ATS after a loss) in 3rd and short situations all game. The Vikings getting 4 points at home is a steal. During writing this the line has also dropped from +4 to +3.5 despite over 90% of the action on the Lions. Remember early line movement is important, discard any late line movement though. Thank you NFL gamblers everywhere for hopping on your beloved Lions' bandwagon after 2 victories and giving Minnesota points at home in a division game. Your offense has tons of talent but your defense will still give up a lot of yardage this year. Another thing.... There are now 6 games this weekend with a 3.5 spread. Vegas has the Vikings at the least +odds than any other team. Quit thinking you guys are smarter than Vegas your not. Those of you saying the Lions are the play this weekend you can consider yourselves squares, win or lose the Vikings are the right play.
Vikings +153
Raiders +165
Rams +171
Seahawks +166
Bears +175
Jaguars +166
Pick: Vikings +3.5
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a very underrated team at this point. Their defense is better than most teams and their offense has enough talent to sustain drives. Andy Dalton has been very good as a rookie thus far and AJ Green is proving to be a very solid first round pick. If Dalton can go 27-41, 330 yards and 2 TD's against the Broncos, he should put up similar numbers against the 49ers weak secondary. This line IMO should be Bengals -4 at the least but thanks to the 49ers playing the Cowboys tough (boys QB throwing 2 picks in that game and cowboys had tons of players in their secondary who didn't play due to injuries) and Tedd Gynn Jr. blowing out the game against Seattle when they were winning by just 2 points late in the fourth quarter with his KR and PR for TD's. Yes the same sea hawks who have Tavaris Jackson and didn't even cross the 50 yard line till the 4th quarter last week. The 49ers gave up 6 sacks to the Cowboys and will have similar problems facing a pretty good Bengals defensive line. Frank Gore has had a very rough 2 starts this season because his offensive line is horrible and isn't opening up any lanes for him (and that was against much worse run defenses than the Bengals). With Gore limited and Alex Smith under tons of pressure, how will they sustain drives? The 49ers are coming off a very emotional loss losing in OT and won't be able to match their energy output from last week.
Pick: Bengals -2.5
Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans
I picked the Titans to win last week against the Ravens but only because they were out for revenge after the Ravens knocked them out of the playoffs a few years ago in a very controversial game where the Titans should have won. The Ravens were also in a letdown spot after demolishing their rival Steelers. That was a huge game to win for the Titans last week and I don't see them sustaining the same effort and energy this week. Just like the Ravens last week I expect the Titans to be in let-down mode somewhat and don't see them covering a 7 point spread against anyone this week. This is a bad spot for them while Orton will be playing away from home after his first win. Im sure he will have more confidence after notching that first win and getting away from all his Denver fans chanting "Tebow." Also this line is way too inflated. Remember teams are never as good or bad as they looked the week before.
Pick: Broncos +7
Pick: Broncos TT O 17?
Pick: Titans Broncos O 42
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
The chargers have one of the best offenses and defenses in the league but Norv Turner and this coaching staff fails to reach their teams potential. Despite having the #1 defense and #1 offense last year the Chargers missed the playoffs. Week after week you see the Chargers outplay their opponents due to their incredible talent, huge wide receivers, and stout defense yet fail to win or cover games because of their stupid play-calling, horrible coaches, and lack of discipline. Norv Turner has got to go. This team has so much potential I can't even begin to imagine what they could do if they had a solid game-plan going into a game to go along with some decent playcalling at the opponents redzone. I seriously think Norv Turner tells Rivers to just "find someone open and make a plan" every down. Anyways back to the matchup. Last week the Chargers again had 4 turnovers inside the patriots 35 yard line. Will the Chargers be turnover prone again this week? Will their playcalling be inept once again? Nothing makes me think that it wont be the same ol' chargers outplaying their opponent but coming up short where it matters the most. The Chiefs have a lot of injuries and won't be very good without Charlie Wies on their side this year but I see them covering this spread easily. The Chargers have been -14 or more 3 times this decade and failed to cover any of those games. Chargers laying -15 in September? Pfffft....
Pick: Chiefs +15
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