Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets
As bad a mess as the Jets are, I love them here. Nothing fuels a team more than going through an entire preseason of hate, ridicule, and criticism. Doesn’t matter who will QB for the Jets, there defense will keep them in this game. The Bucs won’t have nearly as strong of a defense as they did last year as they lost a few key players in the middle of there defense. Not to mention, the Jets have owned the Bucs of late, boasting a 7-0 ATS mark the past 7 games. Jets roll here before self-destructing in week 2.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears
Love this match-up. All off-season everyone's surprise team of the year has been the Bengals. Analysts left and right saying the Bengals are the favorite to win their division and is the hott AFC championship sleeper pick. "A team on the rise vs. an aging Bears defense." Blah blah blah, sounds like too much hype and way too high of expectations for a still young Cincinatti team. On the other side of the ball, we have a Chicago team who everyone has seemed to forget about. A team who started the year 7-1 last year before losing 5 of the final 8 and missing the playoffs. Not many teams in the NFL currently more pissed about the end of last year's season than the Chicago Bears. Soldier Field is still a tough place to play for opposing QBs and the Bears made a lot of improvements in the offseason this year.
- Andy Dalton's record against non-playoff teams: 17-4
- Andy Dalton's record against playoff teams: 1-11
The Bears defense has had a history of shutting down teams in Week 1 of the regular season. The way I see this year’s team, there defense can be even better, especially after getting rid of Urlacher who recently has become a big liability. I'd be surprised if the Bengals surpassed 17 here.
- 2012 - Colts 21
- 2011 - Falcons 12
- 2010 - Lions 14
- 2009 - Packers 21
- 2008 - Colts 13
- 2007 - Chargers 14
A Bengals team with too high of expectations vs. a hungry team who's pissed about last season's debacle. Mark the Bengals down for a few turnovers, Bears steamroll easily here.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Playoff Revenge anyone? If Kapernick not having two of his top three options from last year for this game isn’t enough to sway you, maybe the motivation of the Packers will. Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy want nothing more than to play the 49ers in week 1 of this NFL season. The Pack have had all off-season to gameplan for the 49ers and the read-option, as early as it sounds, this is the game of the year for the Packers. This is a championship team with a lot of pride who lost to the 49ers twice last year, including getting spanked out of the playoffs. The Packers have all the motivation in the world to win this game, while the 49ers will still be pretty bummed about there superbowl loss. Teams who make it to the superbowl and lose usually have a rough start to the following season.
- Superbowl losers are 4-15 ATS week 1 the following year.
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