Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
Love Miami here. Atlanta just had 2 weeks off to prepare for …. the Dolphins? Doubt it. Miami is 2-2 and have been shut out nearly twice this year. No doubt in my mind the Falcons have one eye next week on the Patriots as that is one of the biggest revenge games in NFL history. All offseason the Falcons had to hear “28-3”. Meanwhile, Miami is not as bad as they’ve looked so far. We touched on it before but their travel situation at the beginning of the year has been one of the worst in a long time, not to mention the Hurricane issues. I expect them to play much better moving forward. Cutler isn’t a great QB, but when he can lean on a run game he can manage the game well. Atlanta on the other hand, has the 29th ranked rush defense. Miami should be able to run the ball down their throats. This should be a very close game and I’ll be taking a shot on the ML as well.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
This home game is a game Minnesota players, fans, and coaches circle on the calendar every year. I already touched on how much worse Green Bay plays on the road then at home, and yes they did win in Dallas, but that doesn’t all of a sudden make them a good road team. They needed to rally from 16 down, force a pick 6, and have Dallas coaches perform terrible game management calls in order to win that game. It’s a tough task for an average road team to go into Dallas and go into Minnesota in back to back games and come out with two victories. The Vikings will look to run the ball and play defense in a low scoring game here. They held a healthy Packers team to 14 points in this stadium last year as well. Bradford is out, but that shouldn’t be a huge deal. Keenum has 4 TDs and 0 Picks this year, and is a lot more mobile than Bradford is, while the defense of the Vikings is much better than Green Bay’s. Rodgers is also 2-7 ATS the last 5 years on the road with very low totals (defensive paced games) scoring an average of just 22 points. This is a huge game for Minnesota as a win gets them to #1 in the division.
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Tremendous value on the Saints here. I faded Detroit last week as they were highly overrated heading into that game and I’m going to do the same this week. The Lions only lost to the Panthers by 3 last week, but the score was 27-10 in the 4th Q, while the Lions had just 131 total yards of offense with 10 minutes left in the game!! Detroit is natorious for putting together late TD drives, and that late rally hides the fact that they were completely shutout last week. The Saints are far better this year on defense, facing a Detroit team that beat them 3 years in a row, and with a chance to have a winning record for the first time in a while as well. Saints roll.
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens got embarassed by the Steelers in their last home game losing 26-9, no chance they let a rookie QB come in and beat them here as well. Mitch played fairly well on MNF as he has good arm strength, but he doesn't know how to read defenses or the blitz yet, and rookie QBs never play well on the road, especially against solid defenses. In fact, John Harbaugh is 9-0 SU against rookie QBs at home. Making matters worse, this kid only started in 13 games in college. Baltimore should stack the box and take care of business here against a Chicago team that plays so much better at home vs on the road.
Good lord Man
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