As bad as the Colts are on the road, they are actually quite good at home. They are 2-1 @ home, with the one loss being in overtime to the Cardinals. Going a step further, they’ve outscored their opponents54-23 through 3 quarters in Indianapolis. They’ve performed poorly in the 4Q so far, but that is one thing they are preaching all week in practice currently, so I expect them to emphasize finishing.
The Jags meanwhile, have been out-gained in their 3 road games 1045 total yards to 904 total yards, and their opponents have 62 first downs vs their 54. Big home/road dichotomy favoring the Colts here, enough for me to expect them to come away with the victory. Additionally, at 2-4 and with 2 road games coming up for the Colts where they have played terribly so far - expect them to put max effort in this home divisional game.
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are not a good enough offensive team to be laying 6 points here. The Ravens defense is solid already, but will be getting their best rush defender back from injury in this game. With the Ravens losing to the Bears in OT last week, and this game expected to go under 40 points, I love getting 6 points here in what should be a grind it out, low scoring game. Unfortunately, Baltimore's offense is too inept for me to put anything more than 2 units on them right now.
Morning
Ravens +6 -118 (2x)
Colts +3.5 -115 (4x)
Afternoon
Cowboys -6 (5x)
Chargers PK (3x)
Bengals +6 -118 (3x)
Teasers
Colts +10 / Packers +11 -120 (3x)
Cowboys PK / Redskins +11.5 -120 (2x)
NFL YTD:+9.45 units
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
As bad as the Colts are on the road, they are actually quite good at home. They are 2-1 @ home, with the one loss being in overtime to the Cardinals. Going a step further, they’ve outscored their opponents54-23 through 3 quarters in Indianapolis. They’ve performed poorly in the 4Q so far, but that is one thing they are preaching all week in practice currently, so I expect them to emphasize finishing.
The Jags meanwhile, have been out-gained in their 3 road games 1045 total yards to 904 total yards, and their opponents have 62 first downs vs their 54. Big home/road dichotomy favoring the Colts here, enough for me to expect them to come away with the victory. Additionally, at 2-4 and with 2 road games coming up for the Colts where they have played terribly so far - expect them to put max effort in this home divisional game.
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are not a good enough offensive team to be laying 6 points here. The Ravens defense is solid already, but will be getting their best rush defender back from injury in this game. With the Ravens losing to the Bears in OT last week, and this game expected to go under 40 points, I love getting 6 points here in what should be a grind it out, low scoring game. Unfortunately, Baltimore's offense is too inept for me to put anything more than 2 units on them right now.
I faded the Broncos against the Giants last week, but they are nowhere as bad as they looked in that game. In fact, they out-gained NY by 150+ yards, and held them to just 118 total passing yards. The pick 6 was very costly, but the Giants did play well enough on defense to come out with the win. Denver will be much better moving forward.
With that being said, this isn't a great spot for them. Denver already has a bad offense, and will be without their top WR facing a top 10 pass defense. The Chargers are terrible against the run, but with Denver having to be more one dimensional this game, they should fair better than expected. Ignore the record for the Chargers for a second, and statistically you have a top 5 team in sacks, and a top 2 team in sacks allowed. NFL games are won in the trenches, and the Chargers are tops in the league. On top of that, the Chargers have been given life winning their last 2 games after an 0-4 start (which was mostly due to turnovers and special teams), and here they are playing a divisional opponent after losing to them by 3 early in the year with a chance to sneak into 1 game below .500. I know the Chargers have no homefield advantage, but after being 0-3 at home so far, you have to believe they’ll win one of these at some point. I like the Chargers to win their 3rd straight.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
I have the Cowboys as very underrated, so will be backing them big here. They lost their last 2 games to solid opponents Rams and the Packers, however, they had double digit leads in both of them. On top of that, they were missing their best defender Sean Lee who is expected to return this Sunday after several weeks of rest. After this game, the Cowboys face the Redskins, Chiefs, Falcons, and Eagles. At 2-3 and two and a half games back of the Eagles in the division, this is a must-win game for Dallas.
They are facing a scrappy 49ers team who keep playing close games but SF has now benched their starting QB in favor of a rookie QB, while also getting rid of one of their defensive leaders in Navarro Bowman midweek. At 0-6, you have to wonder what the psyche would be on the rest of the team as these are two moves that essentially marks the end of the season for them. After so many close games, and with all the big coaching changes, very hard to see SF showing up for yet another game here. I expect this to be a blowout and would take Dallas up to -10.
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Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
I faded the Broncos against the Giants last week, but they are nowhere as bad as they looked in that game. In fact, they out-gained NY by 150+ yards, and held them to just 118 total passing yards. The pick 6 was very costly, but the Giants did play well enough on defense to come out with the win. Denver will be much better moving forward.
With that being said, this isn't a great spot for them. Denver already has a bad offense, and will be without their top WR facing a top 10 pass defense. The Chargers are terrible against the run, but with Denver having to be more one dimensional this game, they should fair better than expected. Ignore the record for the Chargers for a second, and statistically you have a top 5 team in sacks, and a top 2 team in sacks allowed. NFL games are won in the trenches, and the Chargers are tops in the league. On top of that, the Chargers have been given life winning their last 2 games after an 0-4 start (which was mostly due to turnovers and special teams), and here they are playing a divisional opponent after losing to them by 3 early in the year with a chance to sneak into 1 game below .500. I know the Chargers have no homefield advantage, but after being 0-3 at home so far, you have to believe they’ll win one of these at some point. I like the Chargers to win their 3rd straight.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
I have the Cowboys as very underrated, so will be backing them big here. They lost their last 2 games to solid opponents Rams and the Packers, however, they had double digit leads in both of them. On top of that, they were missing their best defender Sean Lee who is expected to return this Sunday after several weeks of rest. After this game, the Cowboys face the Redskins, Chiefs, Falcons, and Eagles. At 2-3 and two and a half games back of the Eagles in the division, this is a must-win game for Dallas.
They are facing a scrappy 49ers team who keep playing close games but SF has now benched their starting QB in favor of a rookie QB, while also getting rid of one of their defensive leaders in Navarro Bowman midweek. At 0-6, you have to wonder what the psyche would be on the rest of the team as these are two moves that essentially marks the end of the season for them. After so many close games, and with all the big coaching changes, very hard to see SF showing up for yet another game here. I expect this to be a blowout and would take Dallas up to -10.
Nice hit on the Raiders....had them too LC....I respectfully disagree with you on a couple of picks.....Ill be on the Niners and Broncos.......but as always look forward to your write ups.....especially when the NBA starts going......BOL...
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Nice hit on the Raiders....had them too LC....I respectfully disagree with you on a couple of picks.....Ill be on the Niners and Broncos.......but as always look forward to your write ups.....especially when the NBA starts going......BOL...
I really think Denver is the right side this weekend. I think it's really hard to judge the psyche of the Forty-Niners right now. I would have thought that last week down 17-0 after two consecutive overtime losses on the road would have been a spot to throw in the towel, the didn't and ended up clawing back in to the game and getting the cover. I'm leaning JAGS and not sure what you'll get from the up and down Ravens with MINNY off of a big win versus PACK.
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I really think Denver is the right side this weekend. I think it's really hard to judge the psyche of the Forty-Niners right now. I would have thought that last week down 17-0 after two consecutive overtime losses on the road would have been a spot to throw in the towel, the didn't and ended up clawing back in to the game and getting the cover. I'm leaning JAGS and not sure what you'll get from the up and down Ravens with MINNY off of a big win versus PACK.
Cincy/Pitt looks like an under to me. Pitt defense is better....offense is struggling.
I see Tenn/Clev in a shootout....Cleveland getting a W.....34-30
Any thoughts?
I would lean under in that game as well, as TN is heading into a bye while Cleveland is desperate for a home win and will be playing conservative due to lack of QB. But again not great in totals
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Cool.
Cincy/Pitt looks like an under to me. Pitt defense is better....offense is struggling.
I see Tenn/Clev in a shootout....Cleveland getting a W.....34-30
Any thoughts?
I would lean under in that game as well, as TN is heading into a bye while Cleveland is desperate for a home win and will be playing conservative due to lack of QB. But again not great in totals
I really think Denver is the right side this weekend. I think it's really hard to judge the psyche of the Forty-Niners right now. I would have thought that last week down 17-0 after two consecutive overtime losses on the road would have been a spot to throw in the towel, the didn't and ended up clawing back in to the game and getting the cover. I'm leaning JAGS and not sure what you'll get from the up and down Ravens with MINNY off of a big win versus PACK.
Why, is Denver 100% the better team in this matchup? I'm not so sure
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Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:
I really think Denver is the right side this weekend. I think it's really hard to judge the psyche of the Forty-Niners right now. I would have thought that last week down 17-0 after two consecutive overtime losses on the road would have been a spot to throw in the towel, the didn't and ended up clawing back in to the game and getting the cover. I'm leaning JAGS and not sure what you'll get from the up and down Ravens with MINNY off of a big win versus PACK.
Why, is Denver 100% the better team in this matchup? I'm not so sure
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