4-0 ats on the Panthers this year so I feel I have a good grasp on them. I really liked them the last two weeks as they are an extremely under the radar team that was facing two opponents that were perceived to be better teams than they were. Also, neither the Eagles or Ravens ever see a dual-threat running QB within their division like Newton. Cam rushed 17 times for 101 yards and a TD over these past two games. Although I hope Carolina wins a close one here for futures, I have to be on the Bucs. Unlike the Eagles and Ravens, Tampa is a team that sees Newton twice a year and has spent an entire offseason preparing for.
I like the Bucs to cover this inflated number. I’ve been high on them throughout the season, and feel if they stuck with Fitzpatrick - this team would be 5-2 right now instead of 3-4. They lost to the Falcons by 5, and the Bengals by 3 in games that Winston threw 6 interceptions. Winston has a great arm but just commits way too many turnovers. Would you lay -7 within the division against the Bucs if they were 5-2, which they would have been if they stuck with Fitzpatrick?
Bucs +7 -125 (6x)
Lions +4.5 (3x)
Falcons / Redskins Under 48 (2x)
Broncos -1 (3x)
Chargers +1.5 (2x)
Rams +2.5 (3.5x)
Rams TT Over 29.5 (1x)
Patriots -5 (2x)
Broncos +7 / Rams +6 -120 (2x)
Broncos +7 / Lions +12 -120 (1x)
NFL YTD: 60-28 ATS +61.10 Units
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
4-0 ats on the Panthers this year so I feel I have a good grasp on them. I really liked them the last two weeks as they are an extremely under the radar team that was facing two opponents that were perceived to be better teams than they were. Also, neither the Eagles or Ravens ever see a dual-threat running QB within their division like Newton. Cam rushed 17 times for 101 yards and a TD over these past two games. Although I hope Carolina wins a close one here for futures, I have to be on the Bucs. Unlike the Eagles and Ravens, Tampa is a team that sees Newton twice a year and has spent an entire offseason preparing for.
I like the Bucs to cover this inflated number. I’ve been high on them throughout the season, and feel if they stuck with Fitzpatrick - this team would be 5-2 right now instead of 3-4. They lost to the Falcons by 5, and the Bengals by 3 in games that Winston threw 6 interceptions. Winston has a great arm but just commits way too many turnovers. Would you lay -7 within the division against the Bucs if they were 5-2, which they would have been if they stuck with Fitzpatrick?
I like the Rams to continue their winning streak and get to 9-0. The key to beating the Rams this year is with a defensive minded coach and a strong rush defense / linebacking group that can slow down Todd Gurley. Gurley opens up everything the Rams like to do on offense in terms of the passing game and the play action game. The Saints have the #1 rush defense in the league, so New Orleans looks like a great matchup for them on paper right?
No, that #1 rush defense is extremely misleading. Let’s look at who the Saints have faced in terms of running backs so far this year:
Peyton Barber
Carlos Hyde
They faced the Falcons when Devonte Freeman was out of the lineup
Redskins tandem of Chris Thompson and Adrian Petersen - solid duo, however, both RBs got injured in the first half and both left the game for good early in the game.
Alex Collins
This past week they faced the Vikings with Dalvin Cook out of the lineup
The one RB in the league they have seen that is a legit threat and had to scheme for on defense, was Saquon Barkley. And the inept coaching staff of the Giants ran him 10 times and let Eli Manning throw the ball 41 times (sums up the Giants season for ya).
The Saints have been known to have a bad secondary for a long time now, but perception is their defense has gotten better due to their rush defense being vastly improved. As we see above, that’s not entirely true. The Saints #1 rush defense, equates to #19th in adjusted rush defense in my rankings. Plus, the Saints pass defense is ranked #30th in terms of yards per play. Outside of CB Lattimore becoming a growing star and a few other pieces, the Saints defense is highly overrated - and they haven’t faced anyone remotely close to the level of Todd Gurley yet. #19th ranked rush defense and #30th ranked pass defense is going to slow down the #1 offensive efficiency team in the NFL? I highly doubt that.
The market is vastly overvaluing the Saints and I look to take advantage in this matchup. I like the Rams to win this one comfortably.
0
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
I like the Rams to continue their winning streak and get to 9-0. The key to beating the Rams this year is with a defensive minded coach and a strong rush defense / linebacking group that can slow down Todd Gurley. Gurley opens up everything the Rams like to do on offense in terms of the passing game and the play action game. The Saints have the #1 rush defense in the league, so New Orleans looks like a great matchup for them on paper right?
No, that #1 rush defense is extremely misleading. Let’s look at who the Saints have faced in terms of running backs so far this year:
Peyton Barber
Carlos Hyde
They faced the Falcons when Devonte Freeman was out of the lineup
Redskins tandem of Chris Thompson and Adrian Petersen - solid duo, however, both RBs got injured in the first half and both left the game for good early in the game.
Alex Collins
This past week they faced the Vikings with Dalvin Cook out of the lineup
The one RB in the league they have seen that is a legit threat and had to scheme for on defense, was Saquon Barkley. And the inept coaching staff of the Giants ran him 10 times and let Eli Manning throw the ball 41 times (sums up the Giants season for ya).
The Saints have been known to have a bad secondary for a long time now, but perception is their defense has gotten better due to their rush defense being vastly improved. As we see above, that’s not entirely true. The Saints #1 rush defense, equates to #19th in adjusted rush defense in my rankings. Plus, the Saints pass defense is ranked #30th in terms of yards per play. Outside of CB Lattimore becoming a growing star and a few other pieces, the Saints defense is highly overrated - and they haven’t faced anyone remotely close to the level of Todd Gurley yet. #19th ranked rush defense and #30th ranked pass defense is going to slow down the #1 offensive efficiency team in the NFL? I highly doubt that.
The market is vastly overvaluing the Saints and I look to take advantage in this matchup. I like the Rams to win this one comfortably.
Problem is the Saints want to run too and should do so effectively. Since Ingram came back they're +137 in run yardage over the last 3 games. They've averaged 113 yds. in the 3 games on almost 30 carries per game. LA's rush defense is giving up over 100 yds. per game, not too good for a team which usually plays with leads and forces opponents to pass to catch up.
Maybe we should be looking at the under total here. Apparently, wise guys are as the number has dropped from 60 to 57.5.
Thanks for your valuable insights on this forum.
0
Problem is the Saints want to run too and should do so effectively. Since Ingram came back they're +137 in run yardage over the last 3 games. They've averaged 113 yds. in the 3 games on almost 30 carries per game. LA's rush defense is giving up over 100 yds. per game, not too good for a team which usually plays with leads and forces opponents to pass to catch up.
Maybe we should be looking at the under total here. Apparently, wise guys are as the number has dropped from 60 to 57.5.
Denver trading Demaryius to Houston right before they play them doesn't worry you? I was picking Denver too until I saw that news and then I thought I'd skip this game.
0
Denver trading Demaryius to Houston right before they play them doesn't worry you? I was picking Denver too until I saw that news and then I thought I'd skip this game.
Denver trading Demaryius to Houston right before they play them doesn't worry you? I was picking Denver too until I saw that news and then I thought I'd skip this game.
That was no doubt a very intriguing move considering the Broncos play the Texans this week.
0
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:
Denver trading Demaryius to Houston right before they play them doesn't worry you? I was picking Denver too until I saw that news and then I thought I'd skip this game.
That was no doubt a very intriguing move considering the Broncos play the Texans this week.
Denver trading Demaryius to Houston right before they play them doesn't worry you? I was picking Denver too until I saw that news and then I thought I'd skip this game.
He isn't the player he used to be he's aged a ton, slight concern in him bringing intel to the Texans but i'm sure Denver's coaching staff isn't that dumb not to prepare for it or to not change their signals. Regardless I did downgrade them from 4x to 3x just incase
0
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:
Denver trading Demaryius to Houston right before they play them doesn't worry you? I was picking Denver too until I saw that news and then I thought I'd skip this game.
He isn't the player he used to be he's aged a ton, slight concern in him bringing intel to the Texans but i'm sure Denver's coaching staff isn't that dumb not to prepare for it or to not change their signals. Regardless I did downgrade them from 4x to 3x just incase
The one RB in the league they have seen that is a legit threat and had to scheme for on defense, was Saquon Barkley. And the inept coaching staff of the Giants ran him 10 times and let Eli Manning throw the ball 41 times (sums up the Giants season for ya).
Saquon ran the ball 10 times for 44 yards. One of those carries went for 28 yards. Which means the other 9 carries went for 16 yards. So the reason the Giants went away from the run was perhaps because they couldn't? Teams tend to abandon what doesn't work, especially when they fall behind.
And shouldn't a top rated rush defense do to those RBs (no mention about those teams offensive lines but we'll ignore that) what the Saints have done?
For instance, the Rams defense gave up 5.9 yards per rush to a Seattle team that currently averages 4.0 yards per rush. Should't that Aaron Donald led front have done better than that?
0
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
The one RB in the league they have seen that is a legit threat and had to scheme for on defense, was Saquon Barkley. And the inept coaching staff of the Giants ran him 10 times and let Eli Manning throw the ball 41 times (sums up the Giants season for ya).
Saquon ran the ball 10 times for 44 yards. One of those carries went for 28 yards. Which means the other 9 carries went for 16 yards. So the reason the Giants went away from the run was perhaps because they couldn't? Teams tend to abandon what doesn't work, especially when they fall behind.
And shouldn't a top rated rush defense do to those RBs (no mention about those teams offensive lines but we'll ignore that) what the Saints have done?
For instance, the Rams defense gave up 5.9 yards per rush to a Seattle team that currently averages 4.0 yards per rush. Should't that Aaron Donald led front have done better than that?
Totally disagree on the Bucs +7 the Panthers are rolling with their new offensive coordinator and Tampa Bay is a mess I do like a lot of your pics and respect what you bring to the forum I also am on the other side of Denver BOL
0
Totally disagree on the Bucs +7 the Panthers are rolling with their new offensive coordinator and Tampa Bay is a mess I do like a lot of your pics and respect what you bring to the forum I also am on the other side of Denver BOL
I hope you really analyzed how well the Saints play at home in big games...it's not your typical HFA IMO...plus, one has to consider the Rams defense not stopping anyone the last 5 weeks like it did initially, I saw Marcus Peters literally get turned around backwards by Packers WR last week and that guy was open by 10 yards down the middle...so look who they're facing this week...including one of the best offensive minds on the sidelines...
As for the total considering the above, how can it stay under considering your correct points about the Saints D? I think the wise guys are just playing value...
0
I hope you really analyzed how well the Saints play at home in big games...it's not your typical HFA IMO...plus, one has to consider the Rams defense not stopping anyone the last 5 weeks like it did initially, I saw Marcus Peters literally get turned around backwards by Packers WR last week and that guy was open by 10 yards down the middle...so look who they're facing this week...including one of the best offensive minds on the sidelines...
As for the total considering the above, how can it stay under considering your correct points about the Saints D? I think the wise guys are just playing value...
Don't you think the Rams took a physical beating last week vs Gb? Brees didn't get 1 scratch vs a physical Def in Minny. Murray had been playing well in Cooks absence Revenge from last seasonand topspot inNfc. Great home field adv for saints.Saints are 22 0 last 22games at home when they have a winning record.Saints shouldn't be dogs to anyone at home .Rams aren't going 16 0.
0
Don't you think the Rams took a physical beating last week vs Gb? Brees didn't get 1 scratch vs a physical Def in Minny. Murray had been playing well in Cooks absence Revenge from last seasonand topspot inNfc. Great home field adv for saints.Saints are 22 0 last 22games at home when they have a winning record.Saints shouldn't be dogs to anyone at home .Rams aren't going 16 0.
I understand the Saints are a popular pick this week, they have a great homefield advantage. I still think they lose rather convincingly. Rams are one of the best teams assembled we've seen in a while. I don't think the Saints can beat them.
I would have been on Cleveland if they were healthy and didn't lose both coaches, and no interest in Buffalo. Actually I still have PTSD on them from last week
0
I understand the Saints are a popular pick this week, they have a great homefield advantage. I still think they lose rather convincingly. Rams are one of the best teams assembled we've seen in a while. I don't think the Saints can beat them.
I would have been on Cleveland if they were healthy and didn't lose both coaches, and no interest in Buffalo. Actually I still have PTSD on them from last week
Only total I've played for the year but I felt compelled to play it because Redskins defense is still so underrated, but their offense has more injuries then probably any team in the NFL. Plus Falcons weakness this year was defense, so off the bye I'm sure that was their focus.
I would have played Skins if they were healthy but their offense is so banged up, the total looks like the better play to me
Hoping Skins win for my division play
0
Only total I've played for the year but I felt compelled to play it because Redskins defense is still so underrated, but their offense has more injuries then probably any team in the NFL. Plus Falcons weakness this year was defense, so off the bye I'm sure that was their focus.
I would have played Skins if they were healthy but their offense is so banged up, the total looks like the better play to me
Saquon ran the ball 10 times for 44 yards. One of those carries went for 28 yards. Which means the other 9 carries went for 16 yards. So the reason the Giants went away from the run was perhaps because they couldn't? Teams tend to abandon what doesn't work, especially when they fall behind.
And shouldn't a top rated rush defense do to those RBs (no mention about those teams offensive lines but we'll ignore that) what the Saints have done?
For instance, the Rams defense gave up 5.9 yards per rush to a Seattle team that currently averages 4.0 yards per rush. Should't that Aaron Donald led front have done better than that?
So we can just take out the best run in each game if we want to weigh down the #s? Why should we take that 1 run out?
0
Quote Originally Posted by Aalon:
Saquon ran the ball 10 times for 44 yards. One of those carries went for 28 yards. Which means the other 9 carries went for 16 yards. So the reason the Giants went away from the run was perhaps because they couldn't? Teams tend to abandon what doesn't work, especially when they fall behind.
And shouldn't a top rated rush defense do to those RBs (no mention about those teams offensive lines but we'll ignore that) what the Saints have done?
For instance, the Rams defense gave up 5.9 yards per rush to a Seattle team that currently averages 4.0 yards per rush. Should't that Aaron Donald led front have done better than that?
So we can just take out the best run in each game if we want to weigh down the #s? Why should we take that 1 run out?
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
