I'm not going to use this thread to vent but I had my worst day yesterday not only in the sense of how bad my plays were but how much actual money I had lost. Brutal brutal endings for me I don't even want to think about. Part of handicapping is being able to shake off the previous days or plays and move on. Same as golf. Thinking clearly is a big part of this and the reason when you start going down a hole, often times that continues.
Today is a bounce back and I have been on fire in NFL as in most years. I will try to replicate that today as I have a handful of plays, many of which will obviously be on the earlier side. Here is what I am personally backing:
OVER 41 (LV/BAL): This has been a trend that is 5 out of 5 in the last meetings in Baltimore played between these two squads. Add to that the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 vs the Raiders, a team they clearly own. The line is about right for me though it would imply the Ravens need at least a double digit win this week to cover, which I don't like to lay in the first couple of weeks of play. Moreover, if the Ravens do get ahead, Gardner Minshew has made enough "Minshew Magic" against us that I would be sick watching him come back and cover the game. I do think the Raiders were sliced and diced on the ground last week and that too kept their scoring lower. While the Ravens will want to do the same, truth is, the Raiders will not be able to cover the TE's and that should allow the chains to keep moving. Play this with confidence.
CAROLINA (+5): Not for the feint of heart. But Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers and I can't see this game becoming an aerial show. Harbaugh will want to continue to run the ball, he always will, and Carolina will want to prove last week was a fluke, which it most likely was being this is the NFL. They got down so quick they had to abandon their game script and try to play catch up before just rolling over. Today will be different and while I'm not sure the Panthers win this one, I'm pretty sure they keep it close and have a chance.
NYG ML (+110): I like Jayden Daniels, I think the Washington offense will be exciting, but I think they are nowhere as good as the Giants, and the G-Men aren't that great. NY Giants is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington and NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington. With a low spread I will take the + money and the better and more experienced side here to not fall to 0-2.
NYJ (-4)...BIG PLAY!!!: Backing both NY teams here as this stat is just eye popping and I'm pretty sure Aaron Rodgers will not want to start 0-2: NY Jets is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Tennessee and NY Jets is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee. And those past Jets teams and we know how bad they have been! I'd like to say I can see a double digit victory here for NYJ.
I'm not going to use this thread to vent but I had my worst day yesterday not only in the sense of how bad my plays were but how much actual money I had lost. Brutal brutal endings for me I don't even want to think about. Part of handicapping is being able to shake off the previous days or plays and move on. Same as golf. Thinking clearly is a big part of this and the reason when you start going down a hole, often times that continues.
Today is a bounce back and I have been on fire in NFL as in most years. I will try to replicate that today as I have a handful of plays, many of which will obviously be on the earlier side. Here is what I am personally backing:
OVER 41 (LV/BAL): This has been a trend that is 5 out of 5 in the last meetings in Baltimore played between these two squads. Add to that the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 vs the Raiders, a team they clearly own. The line is about right for me though it would imply the Ravens need at least a double digit win this week to cover, which I don't like to lay in the first couple of weeks of play. Moreover, if the Ravens do get ahead, Gardner Minshew has made enough "Minshew Magic" against us that I would be sick watching him come back and cover the game. I do think the Raiders were sliced and diced on the ground last week and that too kept their scoring lower. While the Ravens will want to do the same, truth is, the Raiders will not be able to cover the TE's and that should allow the chains to keep moving. Play this with confidence.
CAROLINA (+5): Not for the feint of heart. But Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers and I can't see this game becoming an aerial show. Harbaugh will want to continue to run the ball, he always will, and Carolina will want to prove last week was a fluke, which it most likely was being this is the NFL. They got down so quick they had to abandon their game script and try to play catch up before just rolling over. Today will be different and while I'm not sure the Panthers win this one, I'm pretty sure they keep it close and have a chance.
NYG ML (+110): I like Jayden Daniels, I think the Washington offense will be exciting, but I think they are nowhere as good as the Giants, and the G-Men aren't that great. NY Giants is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington and NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington. With a low spread I will take the + money and the better and more experienced side here to not fall to 0-2.
NYJ (-4)...BIG PLAY!!!: Backing both NY teams here as this stat is just eye popping and I'm pretty sure Aaron Rodgers will not want to start 0-2: NY Jets is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Tennessee and NY Jets is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee. And those past Jets teams and we know how bad they have been! I'd like to say I can see a double digit victory here for NYJ.
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MINNESOTA (+4.5): I'd love to say last week was a fluke and most will when it comes to Sam Darnold. I'd also like to say that SF is invincible b/c last week they looked that way. But the NFL is funny just when you think you know what's going on they show you different. I can see the Vikings winning this game SU and am encouraged with stats that read like Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Francisco and Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco. That is EXTREMELY compelling when a season is just stating and teams are jockeying for position. Just missed a BIG PLAY here only b/c of how good SF looked last week.
I usually don't play this many games but it's early in the season and with no byes all teams are in action so more matchups. I'd love to keep the good times rolling and only ask to keep comments positive. As I've said, BIG PLAYS count double for the record, win or lose, and so I'm hoping to get the Jets into the winners circle as well as the other affairs. Of course, as always, do your own research, tail or fade, good luck to all.
Too many characters for a post apparently. Going to continue here:
MINNESOTA (+4.5): I'd love to say last week was a fluke and most will when it comes to Sam Darnold. I'd also like to say that SF is invincible b/c last week they looked that way. But the NFL is funny just when you think you know what's going on they show you different. I can see the Vikings winning this game SU and am encouraged with stats that read like Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Francisco and Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco. That is EXTREMELY compelling when a season is just stating and teams are jockeying for position. Just missed a BIG PLAY here only b/c of how good SF looked last week.
I usually don't play this many games but it's early in the season and with no byes all teams are in action so more matchups. I'd love to keep the good times rolling and only ask to keep comments positive. As I've said, BIG PLAYS count double for the record, win or lose, and so I'm hoping to get the Jets into the winners circle as well as the other affairs. Of course, as always, do your own research, tail or fade, good luck to all.
Awesome. Think Saints keep it a game but line has moved into the danger zone so I laid off. Also wouldn't be shocked to see NE win outright in home opener. Both of those teams extremely similar.
Awesome. Think Saints keep it a game but line has moved into the danger zone so I laid off. Also wouldn't be shocked to see NE win outright in home opener. Both of those teams extremely similar.
Im on the Giants myself and I like the CAR and MIN play.
I had an absolutely horrendous day yesterday too. It was my worst day betting in I dont know how long cant even remember, probably in a decade. I went 1-8 or 1-9 I think, dont even want to look and confirm exact record, but I know I only won 1 game. There was a few close ones that easily couldve gone my way but I just straight up whiffed on over half my plays, not even remotely close.
I dont know if this was the case for you, but I locked myself into too many lines early in the week that moved way against me. If I had waited and watched the movement I wouldve never played them and thats a bad mistake.
Im on the Giants myself and I like the CAR and MIN play.
I had an absolutely horrendous day yesterday too. It was my worst day betting in I dont know how long cant even remember, probably in a decade. I went 1-8 or 1-9 I think, dont even want to look and confirm exact record, but I know I only won 1 game. There was a few close ones that easily couldve gone my way but I just straight up whiffed on over half my plays, not even remotely close.
I dont know if this was the case for you, but I locked myself into too many lines early in the week that moved way against me. If I had waited and watched the movement I wouldve never played them and thats a bad mistake.
Im on the Giants myself and I like the CAR and MIN play. I had an absolutely horrendous day yesterday too. It was my worst day betting in I dont know how long cant even remember, probably in a decade. I went 1-8 or 1-9 I think, dont even want to look and confirm exact record, but I know I only won 1 game. There was a few close ones that easily couldve gone my way but I just straight up whiffed on over half my plays, not even remotely close. I dont know if this was the case for you, but I locked myself into too many lines early in the week that moved way against me. If I had waited and watched the movement I wouldve never played them and thats a bad mistake. Good luck, lets get it back today
Nope for me it was being a** f****d late in games. I literally had a HUGE payout with Tulane who decided to just go into a choke hold into the 4th quarter (though they played well) and then went pretty heavy into Georgia who, well, I have no words. I loved Texas A&M and then just for whatever reason didn't pull the trigger. So it was a day filled with bad decisions and wrong sides.
Im on the Giants myself and I like the CAR and MIN play. I had an absolutely horrendous day yesterday too. It was my worst day betting in I dont know how long cant even remember, probably in a decade. I went 1-8 or 1-9 I think, dont even want to look and confirm exact record, but I know I only won 1 game. There was a few close ones that easily couldve gone my way but I just straight up whiffed on over half my plays, not even remotely close. I dont know if this was the case for you, but I locked myself into too many lines early in the week that moved way against me. If I had waited and watched the movement I wouldve never played them and thats a bad mistake. Good luck, lets get it back today
Nope for me it was being a** f****d late in games. I literally had a HUGE payout with Tulane who decided to just go into a choke hold into the 4th quarter (though they played well) and then went pretty heavy into Georgia who, well, I have no words. I loved Texas A&M and then just for whatever reason didn't pull the trigger. So it was a day filled with bad decisions and wrong sides.
Early games are going to need more time to be decided with the obvious exception of Carolina. They will be other peoples problems moving forward. Just can't back an anemic offense.
Adding...
OVER 47 (LAR/ARI): Trends in H2H point this way and I can't see anything less than an open game. Don't want to push too much with a BIG PLAY open and very much in questions so I'm going to keep this as a normal sized play though I might bump that.
Early games are going to need more time to be decided with the obvious exception of Carolina. They will be other peoples problems moving forward. Just can't back an anemic offense.
Adding...
OVER 47 (LAR/ARI): Trends in H2H point this way and I can't see anything less than an open game. Don't want to push too much with a BIG PLAY open and very much in questions so I'm going to keep this as a normal sized play though I might bump that.
Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur: Im on the Giants myself and I like the CAR and MIN play. I had an absolutely horrendous day yesterday too. It was my worst day betting in I dont know how long cant even remember, probably in a decade. I went 1-8 or 1-9 I think, dont even want to look and confirm exact record, but I know I only won 1 game. There was a few close ones that easily couldve gone my way but I just straight up whiffed on over half my plays, not even remotely close. I dont know if this was the case for you, but I locked myself into too many lines early in the week that moved way against me. If I had waited and watched the movement I wouldve never played them and thats a bad mistake. Good luck, lets get it back today Nope for me it was being a** f****d late in games. I literally had a HUGE payout with Tulane who decided to just go into a choke hold into the 4th quarter (though they played well) and then went pretty heavy into Georgia who, well, I have no words. I loved Texas A&M and then just for whatever reason didn't pull the trigger. So it was a day filled with bad decisions and wrong sides. That's why we have today
Sounds like my day yesterday. I liked Georgia, as well as Texas, and for some stupid reason I decided to parlay the 2 rather than play both sides. I also like Tennessee and BYU, but ended up not playing either. Yeah, there was beer involved.
Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur: Im on the Giants myself and I like the CAR and MIN play. I had an absolutely horrendous day yesterday too. It was my worst day betting in I dont know how long cant even remember, probably in a decade. I went 1-8 or 1-9 I think, dont even want to look and confirm exact record, but I know I only won 1 game. There was a few close ones that easily couldve gone my way but I just straight up whiffed on over half my plays, not even remotely close. I dont know if this was the case for you, but I locked myself into too many lines early in the week that moved way against me. If I had waited and watched the movement I wouldve never played them and thats a bad mistake. Good luck, lets get it back today Nope for me it was being a** f****d late in games. I literally had a HUGE payout with Tulane who decided to just go into a choke hold into the 4th quarter (though they played well) and then went pretty heavy into Georgia who, well, I have no words. I loved Texas A&M and then just for whatever reason didn't pull the trigger. So it was a day filled with bad decisions and wrong sides. That's why we have today
Sounds like my day yesterday. I liked Georgia, as well as Texas, and for some stupid reason I decided to parlay the 2 rather than play both sides. I also like Tennessee and BYU, but ended up not playing either. Yeah, there was beer involved.
Great day for everyone though I'm still miffed as to what happened in the Giants game. Did they not have a kicker? I wasn't watching and was certain they'd go for 3 on the Washington 22 and time running out. Oh well, so it goes...at least we got the BIG PLAY and probably will get the late OVER.
Even more frustrating were the Ravens whom I had teased or put the ML in parlays. I actually put more on the 2H OVER at halftime so I was really stoked to get that number but I called it correctly in my analysis! We always seem to crumble against Minshew (Jackonsville, Indy, and now in LV).
So wasn't as profitable but the Jets definitely hooked me up. With the current play of the OVER in AZ open, I hope it hits and will guarantee a profitable day going into tonights game.
Glad you all are tailing because the year is already off on a good note!
Hoping to get back to the forum tonight and keep the good times rolling. I need it after yesterday but also could use another winner with the LAR/AZ OVER 47. See you all at the window!
Great day for everyone though I'm still miffed as to what happened in the Giants game. Did they not have a kicker? I wasn't watching and was certain they'd go for 3 on the Washington 22 and time running out. Oh well, so it goes...at least we got the BIG PLAY and probably will get the late OVER.
Even more frustrating were the Ravens whom I had teased or put the ML in parlays. I actually put more on the 2H OVER at halftime so I was really stoked to get that number but I called it correctly in my analysis! We always seem to crumble against Minshew (Jackonsville, Indy, and now in LV).
So wasn't as profitable but the Jets definitely hooked me up. With the current play of the OVER in AZ open, I hope it hits and will guarantee a profitable day going into tonights game.
Glad you all are tailing because the year is already off on a good note!
Hoping to get back to the forum tonight and keep the good times rolling. I need it after yesterday but also could use another winner with the LAR/AZ OVER 47. See you all at the window!
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