Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Bills -2 over KC --- 1.1 units Bills are strong at home but not so strong to be into regression. Bills consistently Been in the top 5 pts per plays margin while KC is below the threshold of .090 that neither Brady or Mahomes have Been able to win the SB. And KC well below that Treshold. KC 7-0 in close 1 score wins with no 14 pt blowout wins. Horrendous ratio. Mahomes or no Mahomes teams teams are not winning the SB with these numbers. Close wins is not a good indicator of strong teams. We just saw this with the Texans, 5-1 SU and 4-0 in close 1 score games. And coming off a strong showing last year in close wins. Similar to what the Eagles did last year starting 10-1 and then bang they lose 5 straight. Texans loss 3 of last 4 and go 1-3 in close 1 score games. Close wins are not repeatable, more luck based then skill based. Now I see NFL analyst stating how KC is so good at close 1 score wins, ha, funny stuff. KC day is coming. It is not "IF"but only "WHEN" Mahomes or no Mahomes. This close games query says KC is a good fade this week: AD and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 7) > 4.5 SU: 8-29 (-8.9,21.6%) ATS: 11-26 (-5.0,29.7%) Away dogs who won at least 5 of their last 7 games by 1 to 7 points are just 11-26 ATS in their next game. Since they failed to cover by an average of 5 points, I decided to take a bit of a chance and sold 3.5 points for one unit: BUF -5.5/+159. Several of the ESPN Bet Live handicappers like KC, so beware. I am having a bad NFL season, so I hope I did not jinx this thread, TC. Good luck everybody.
Good info dog...........
The one thing I don't like is KC off 3 ATS losses. Bills are off only 1 ATS win and 1-1 ATS past 2 games but are off 4-1 ATS last 5.
Teams don't lose more then 3 ATS in a row very often especially the better teams.
But I have Bills much better team, had this been a better spot I'd call for a Bills double digit win.
This game will tell us alot about both these teams. But the spot may have me thinking about those results.
Bills have consistently been in the top 5 pts per plays margin while KC is well below the .090 threshold of very good, solid playoff teams.
But they have Mahomes, I don't think that will be enough though.
Steve Fezzik said last week his best look-ahead line was Bills +1 over KC. He said grab it now as Bills will be favorite next week.
........ you do t think line goes up from here ?
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