BF fade on the Steelers and a BF play on the Bears.
I liked the Steelers to beat the Ravens but now I have to fade them. If they do get the win it will be a great spot to fade them next week VS Browns. Playing a division opp and off a very big division win.
Bears, wow, really reached a low point getting hammered by who ? The Pats ? Crazy.
If both these teams fail to cover this week it will set up a possible very strong score next week.
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Ravens -3 (-120) over Steelers --- 1.2 units
Bears +6 (-120) over Packers --- 1.2 units
BF fade on the Steelers and a BF play on the Bears.
I liked the Steelers to beat the Ravens but now I have to fade them. If they do get the win it will be a great spot to fade them next week VS Browns. Playing a division opp and off a very big division win.
Bears, wow, really reached a low point getting hammered by who ? The Pats ? Crazy.
If both these teams fail to cover this week it will set up a possible very strong score next week.
Bills are strong at home but not so strong to be into regression.
Bills consistently Been in the top 5 pts per plays margin while KC is below the threshold of .090 that neither Brady or Mahomes have Been able to win the SB. And KC well below that Treshold.
KC 7-0 in close 1 score wins with no 14 pt blowout wins.
Horrendous ratio. Mahomes or no Mahomes teams teams are not winning the SB with these numbers.
Close wins is not a good indicator of strong teams.
We just saw this with the Texans, 5-1 SU and 4-0 in close 1 score games. And coming off a strong showing last year in close wins. Similar to what the Eagles did last year starting 10-1 and then bang they lose 5 straight.
Texans loss 3 of last 4 and go 1-3 in close 1 score games.
Close wins are not repeatable, more luck based then skill based.
Now I see NFL analyst stating how KC is so good at close 1 score wins, ha, funny stuff.
KC day is coming. It is not "IF"but only "WHEN" Mahomes or no Mahomes.
1
Bills -2 over KC --- 1.1 units
Bills are strong at home but not so strong to be into regression.
Bills consistently Been in the top 5 pts per plays margin while KC is below the threshold of .090 that neither Brady or Mahomes have Been able to win the SB. And KC well below that Treshold.
KC 7-0 in close 1 score wins with no 14 pt blowout wins.
Horrendous ratio. Mahomes or no Mahomes teams teams are not winning the SB with these numbers.
Close wins is not a good indicator of strong teams.
We just saw this with the Texans, 5-1 SU and 4-0 in close 1 score games. And coming off a strong showing last year in close wins. Similar to what the Eagles did last year starting 10-1 and then bang they lose 5 straight.
Texans loss 3 of last 4 and go 1-3 in close 1 score games.
Close wins are not repeatable, more luck based then skill based.
Now I see NFL analyst stating how KC is so good at close 1 score wins, ha, funny stuff.
KC day is coming. It is not "IF"but only "WHEN" Mahomes or no Mahomes.
Ravens -3 (-120) over Steelers --- 1.2 units Bears +6 (-120) over Packers --- 1.2 units BF fade on the Steelers and a BF play on the Bears. I liked the Steelers to beat the Ravens but now I have to fade them. If they do get the win it will be a great spot to fade them next week VS Browns. Playing a division opp and off a very big division win. Bears, wow, really reached a low point getting hammered by who ? The Pats ? Crazy. If both these teams fail to cover this week it will set up a possible very strong score next week.
My numbers agree on both games. Only thing that scares me on the Ravens is that the dog has owned this series over the years. Something like 14-1-2 ATS or close to it. BOL
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Ravens -3 (-120) over Steelers --- 1.2 units Bears +6 (-120) over Packers --- 1.2 units BF fade on the Steelers and a BF play on the Bears. I liked the Steelers to beat the Ravens but now I have to fade them. If they do get the win it will be a great spot to fade them next week VS Browns. Playing a division opp and off a very big division win. Bears, wow, really reached a low point getting hammered by who ? The Pats ? Crazy. If both these teams fail to cover this week it will set up a possible very strong score next week.
My numbers agree on both games. Only thing that scares me on the Ravens is that the dog has owned this series over the years. Something like 14-1-2 ATS or close to it. BOL
Hard to take Ravens in this series battle. Steelers as a DOG have covered every game in this series going back to 2016. Either team as a DOG has covered every game except one going back to 2015. Nuts.
America First
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@theclaw
Chiefs likely drop this one
Hard to take Ravens in this series battle. Steelers as a DOG have covered every game in this series going back to 2016. Either team as a DOG has covered every game except one going back to 2015. Nuts.
@theclaw Like Bears division home dog. Also like Steelers division home dog too. Like Bills the revenge game as well. Good luck either way.
I see many on you tube liking Steelers, lots of history backing that side.
But this is a unquie spot that may not have been present in most of those games over history. So history may not be as important.
I want the Steelers to win the division. I hope they do win. It sets up next week if Steelers lose. But I think they play again so Steelers could still beat them and take the division.
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Quote Originally Posted by Supat125:
@theclaw Like Bears division home dog. Also like Steelers division home dog too. Like Bills the revenge game as well. Good luck either way.
I see many on you tube liking Steelers, lots of history backing that side.
But this is a unquie spot that may not have been present in most of those games over history. So history may not be as important.
I want the Steelers to win the division. I hope they do win. It sets up next week if Steelers lose. But I think they play again so Steelers could still beat them and take the division.
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Ravens -3 (-120) over Steelers --- 1.2 units Bears +6 (-120) over Packers --- 1.2 units BF fade on the Steelers and a BF play on the Bears. I liked the Steelers to beat the Ravens but now I have to fade them. If they do get the win it will be a great spot to fade them next week VS Browns. Playing a division opp and off a very big division win. Bears, wow, really reached a low point getting hammered by who ? The Pats ? Crazy. If both these teams fail to cover this week it will set up a possible very strong score next week. My numbers agree on both games. Only thing that scares me on the Ravens is that the dog has owned this series over the years. Something like 14-1-2 ATS or close to it. BOL
No doubt lots of history backing Steelers ..........
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Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Ravens -3 (-120) over Steelers --- 1.2 units Bears +6 (-120) over Packers --- 1.2 units BF fade on the Steelers and a BF play on the Bears. I liked the Steelers to beat the Ravens but now I have to fade them. If they do get the win it will be a great spot to fade them next week VS Browns. Playing a division opp and off a very big division win. Bears, wow, really reached a low point getting hammered by who ? The Pats ? Crazy. If both these teams fail to cover this week it will set up a possible very strong score next week. My numbers agree on both games. Only thing that scares me on the Ravens is that the dog has owned this series over the years. Something like 14-1-2 ATS or close to it. BOL
No doubt lots of history backing Steelers ..........
@theclaw Chiefs likely drop this one Hard to take Ravens in this series battle. Steelers as a DOG have covered every game in this series going back to 2016. Either team as a DOG has covered every game except one going back to 2015. Nuts.
Yes that is crazy but how many times were either team in regression entering the game ?
I might look this up because the favorite could be in regression hence why the dog covered.............
0
Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:
@theclaw Chiefs likely drop this one Hard to take Ravens in this series battle. Steelers as a DOG have covered every game in this series going back to 2016. Either team as a DOG has covered every game except one going back to 2015. Nuts.
Yes that is crazy but how many times were either team in regression entering the game ?
I might look this up because the favorite could be in regression hence why the dog covered.............
Bills -2 over KC --- 1.1 units Bills are strong at home but not so strong to be into regression. Bills consistently Been in the top 5 pts per plays margin while KC is below the threshold of .090 that neither Brady or Mahomes have Been able to win the SB. And KC well below that Treshold. KC 7-0 in close 1 score wins with no 14 pt blowout wins. Horrendous ratio. Mahomes or no Mahomes teams teams are not winning the SB with these numbers. Close wins is not a good indicator of strong teams. We just saw this with the Texans, 5-1 SU and 4-0 in close 1 score games. And coming off a strong showing last year in close wins. Similar to what the Eagles did last year starting 10-1 and then bang they lose 5 straight. Texans loss 3 of last 4 and go 1-3 in close 1 score games. Close wins are not repeatable, more luck based then skill based. Now I see NFL analyst stating how KC is so good at close 1 score wins, ha, funny stuff. KC day is coming. It is not "IF"but only "WHEN" Mahomes or no Mahomes.
This close games query says KC is a good fade this week:
AD and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 7) > 4.5
SU: 8-29 (-8.9,21.6%)
ATS: 11-26 (-5.0,29.7%)
Away dogs who won at least 5 of their last 7 games by 1 to 7 points are just 11-26 ATS in their next game. Since they failed to cover by an average of 5 points, I decided to take a bit of a chance and sold 3.5 points for one unit: BUF -5.5/+159. Several of the ESPN Bet Live handicappers like KC, so beware.
I am having a bad NFL season, so I hope I did not jinx this thread, TC.
Good luck everybody.
0
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Bills -2 over KC --- 1.1 units Bills are strong at home but not so strong to be into regression. Bills consistently Been in the top 5 pts per plays margin while KC is below the threshold of .090 that neither Brady or Mahomes have Been able to win the SB. And KC well below that Treshold. KC 7-0 in close 1 score wins with no 14 pt blowout wins. Horrendous ratio. Mahomes or no Mahomes teams teams are not winning the SB with these numbers. Close wins is not a good indicator of strong teams. We just saw this with the Texans, 5-1 SU and 4-0 in close 1 score games. And coming off a strong showing last year in close wins. Similar to what the Eagles did last year starting 10-1 and then bang they lose 5 straight. Texans loss 3 of last 4 and go 1-3 in close 1 score games. Close wins are not repeatable, more luck based then skill based. Now I see NFL analyst stating how KC is so good at close 1 score wins, ha, funny stuff. KC day is coming. It is not "IF"but only "WHEN" Mahomes or no Mahomes.
This close games query says KC is a good fade this week:
AD and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 7) > 4.5
SU: 8-29 (-8.9,21.6%)
ATS: 11-26 (-5.0,29.7%)
Away dogs who won at least 5 of their last 7 games by 1 to 7 points are just 11-26 ATS in their next game. Since they failed to cover by an average of 5 points, I decided to take a bit of a chance and sold 3.5 points for one unit: BUF -5.5/+159. Several of the ESPN Bet Live handicappers like KC, so beware.
I am having a bad NFL season, so I hope I did not jinx this thread, TC.
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............yep. was considering Titans..............
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