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NFL WEEK 15...................................................

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Posted: #1
60% METHOD................................................

Panthers +6 over Saints --- 5.5 units
49ers +4.5 over Seahawks --- 5.5 units


 
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Posted: #2
THE BOUNCE FACTOR............................................

49ERS +4.5 OVER Seahawks --- 5.5 units
 
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Posted: #3
KC VS LAC...........................................

QBPR ............KC 22.2.............LAC 26.6
AVE PASS MARGIN...........KC 1.8.............LAC 1.9
YARDS PER POINT MARGIN ......KC 3.1..........LAC 2.1

total yards margin...........KC 27.8...............LAC ..........59
rushing yards margin........KC (-9)...............LAC .........15
TO...................KC 15-21=6...................LAC.........10-15=5


power ratings I...........kc 8.49.............lac 10.52
my lines................kc -.97


bonus points.............kc 7.43...........lac 9.05
my lines ..............kc -1.38



the info suggests this matchup looks very evenly matched with LAC slightly the better team, better at winning the passing battle by a small amount, better at rushing battle.

KC better in key stat yards per point, LAC are very low for a team very strong at winning the passing battle, points come out of the passing game , when your winning big you should be winning yards per point strong as well.

LAC have a weakness somewhere , maybe special teams or situational football,. KC is actually a little low at 3.1 for a top passing team,.

TO's look even but KC turns the ball over on offense much more then LAC, 15 TO's to 10 for LAC.

WHEN WE LOOK CLOSER ,at INT's the more skilled part of TO's..........KC 11-11 = 0...........LAC 6-12 = 6

KC has almost double the number of INT's with Mahomes being a high risk taker, A LA Farve.

Not even considering how many passes he threw into heavy traffic EVEN while being puller to the ground with a sack  that could easily have been INT.


Both these teams have weaknesses but they look pretty evenly matched which would indicate the LAC have  as good a chance AS KC  to win SU tonight.

I will pass on the game but give the LAC a very good shot to win SU.

The best teams will be stepping up next few weeks, tonight's game could very well  go a long way to determining that.

Last week of all the top teams the team stepped up the most was..........Bears dominating defensive performance over the Rams.

Saints did not play as well as final score indicated.

 I would still put the Saints as the most complete all around team and the top team at this point but they do not seem as strong as other top teams in past years. 

Tonight one of these teams might just step up big time.

 
 
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Posted: #4

Great stuff, Claw! peace_5 clover

 
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Posted: #5
Chargers hung in and pulled out the game in the clutch. The 2 teams played about even up pretty much like the info suggested with either team having a good shot to win the game late.

It was KC who won the INT battle big time 2-0 and the QBPR fairly large, by large 110.3 to 89.

But Chargers crushed KC in total yards and won rushing yards 
fairly big almost 2 to 1.

Chargers won ave per pass att even with 5 sacks to only sacking Mahomes 2 times.

LAC also won 1st downs, ave per play.

According to PR II which gives extra weight for better defense and winning more battles Chargers should of won by 1.59 pts, almost right on final margin.

PR I, pass heavy had KC winning by 6.05 , mostly on winning QBPR fairly big and TO's 2-0.


KC won yards per point 10.5 to 14.03  but Chargers crushed KC in yards 407 to 294.

This is why you can not consider yards per point without looking at total yards, KC was much more efficient with their yards but they gained far, far fewer yards.

That combo of yards per points with total yards = a 6 pt win for Chargers.
 
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Posted: #6
Let's take a look at PRII on season, gives more weight to rushing and extra credit for better deefense and teams don't turn ball over on offense plus credit for winning more battles regardless of how much you win the battle by.

The no. 1 ranked team has lost thier opening playoff game only once since 2008 and made many SB's in that time, including the Eagles last season.


1 Bears 8.96
2 Rams 8.5
3 KC 7.65
4 NO 7,62
5 LAC 7.19

HERE'S WHAT IS VERY INTERESTING ABOUT THESE RATINGS............................................

The only team no. 1 to lose opening playoff games was 2016 Cowboys who happened to be the lowest ranked no. 1 team in that span by a good amount. 

Just over 10 with all other no. 1 ranked teams over 12.

wow, look howe low these teams are in comparison, crazy low.

This suggest we could see a surprise team from the Wild card round make the SB AND MAYBE 2 SUCH TEAMS FOR THE 1ST TIME IN HISTORY.

i WOULD NOT COUNT OUT THE Bears even if they finish no. 1 for simple reason they would not be a bye team or the top few favorites to win the title.

Unless of course they get the bye and become a top favorite with much higher expectations. Which does not seem likely at this point.

Possible we could have Bears/Chargers SB ASSUMING BOTH FINISH AS wc TEAMS.

Both teams could be in postion late in conference championship games to acheive this , whether they can pull out the games is another story but very possible they both could be in position to do it, and that is all one can ask for getting great value on this play.

Let's see how things unfold from here, but this senrio seems more and more possible as the weeks unfold.
 
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Posted: #7
The other possible WC team  could be the Ravens who rank very high since Jackson took over in PRII, historically high, but only a small sample size of games.

How they finish out could be big, they remind me somewhat of 2005 Steelers who lost big Ben to injury but he returned and won a number of games to just get in playoffs as 6th seed, in only games he played Steelers ranked very high. as the best team that year.
 
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Posted: #8
amazed no vikings in there off the loss. especially with miami beating the pats. great spot and line value with minnesota imo
 
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Posted: #9
Trubisky sucks so bad tho. I can’t see them getting all the way to the bowlZ his interceptions will catch up eventually.
 
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Posted: #10
I would like Panthers too, but you sure you can trust Cam Newton's injury? I'm pretty sure it's the reason they've been losing to people like Bucs and Browns and why he threw 4 ints against Bucs. He was struggling with the injury a lot last week. 

So I wonder if the Carolina pick should just be tossed out because this is too unreliable?
 
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Posted: #11

Bol. How you doing in the contest this season?

 
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POWER RATINGS I...................................

pass heavy PR

1 Bears 9.32
2 NO 9.25
3 LAC 9.16
4 KC 8.36
5 Rams 5.02 

Bears on the strength of their incredible defense lead the league in both PR's.

But with 3 games to play things can change quite a bit, only takes 1 great game or 1 horrendous bad game .

The Rams have really sunk, their QBPR marin has fallen to a very poor 6.2, compare that to the Bears 18.7 or NO 20.3. aND NOW they lost KUPP.



BONUS POINTS....................................

1 NO 11.2
2 Bears 9.27
3 Rams 9.24
4 LAC 8.69
5 KC  6.43


This method has Saints way ahead because of their huge 4.7 yards per point margin which is screaming SB winner.

Rams are interesting as they rank high in 2 of 3 but very low in 1 , shows a weakness for a team could end with best record.

I think Rams peaked way to early .

KC is very low in bonus pts again indicating a weakness.


My line on Bears at NO for NFC TITLE ...........NO -4.93 based on bonus pts which would be best case for NO.

To have a play we need a 4.5 diff so would have to be PK to back NO, and +9.5 or better to back Bears.

However, both other both PR's I & II would back Bears based on being a smaller then 5 pt favorite by NO. 


Bears could be best value play ATS this postseason.

We still have 3 weeks left though so let's see how things
playout.


Our no. 1 ranked team at end of season is an incredible 19 of 22 reaching the championship game in their sport of the 4 sports we follow .

And 15 of the 19 teams made the final won the title, will be a huge test for our PR's  if Bears finish no 1 .



 
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Posted: #13
The Pats if the can finish strong might enter into the top rankings, they have a strong history of such but I'll take a quess and say they likely won't.

Only a quess, just how they looked this season, not all that great for sure.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:

Bol. How you doing in the contest this season?



Not to good. Been a rough season with catching so many really bad breaks topped by the  Falcons fumbling 3 times in red zone with 2 being inside the 3 yard line.

How is that possible ?


 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

I would like Panthers too, but you sure you can trust Cam Newton's injury? I'm pretty sure it's the reason they've been losing to people like Bucs and Browns and why he threw 4 ints against Bucs. He was struggling with the injury a lot last week. 

So I wonder if the Carolina pick should just be tossed out because this is too unreliable?

Yes possible but I play the method for what it is regardless of injuries as the book will adjust the lines. But yes injuries can affect things but not always, kind of a gray area for me.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

Trubisky sucks so bad tho. I can’t see them getting all the way to the bowlZ his interceptions will catch up eventually.

Yea, his INT rate is 3.4 % at this time, high for sure but the Bears do many other things to make up for that.

PR II gives more weight to teams that don't turn ball over on offense and Bears still lead the league and if we took out games Trubisky missed they likely would be even better.

That tells me they are doing other things well enough when they throw those INT's to make up for them.

Could cost them the SU in NO for the NFC title. But get the cover similar to Jags last year at Pats when they got so close but Bortales could not get it done late.


 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by topshow:

amazed no vikings in there off the loss. especially with miami beating the pats. great spot and line value with minnesota imo


Interesting game with both teams still in playoff hunt but both have not very good records .

Don't have any methods on Vikes or Dolphins, they really have not played very well this season, niether has Dolphins .
 
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Posted: #18
interesting analysis Claw, and i am in agreement with just about everything mentioned. out of the NFC it really is going to come down to Rams or Saints but i give edge to the Saints... better QB, better O-line, WR equal, better RB depth, better Run D, pass rush,  only achilles is their secondary unit.. 

Bears are good for one playoff win, so i expect them to win their wildcard game. might be able to give Saints a run for their money, but i think Trubisky will end up losing it for them. however, Saints have had weaknesses with mobile QBs in past playoff apearances(Alex Smith), but if they can contain Bears running game and force Trubisky to throw the Bears could be in trouble even if Saints secondary has been iffy Trubisky might not be able to take advantage because of his inaccuracies. So far Saints run D has been up to the task although they haven't really been tested much. in the limited action they've had against good backs like Gurley and Zeke, they mostly held them in check. Zeke averaged 3.3 ypc, while Gurley only had 13 carries but had 5.2 ypc. but i'll give the Saints run D credit, they are better than last year.


Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

60% METHOD................................................

Panthers +6 over Saints --- 5.5 units
49ers +4.5 over Seahawks --- 5.5 units




60% METHOD..........................................

Bears -5 over Packers --- 5.5 units
Bills -3 (-105) over Lions



 
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Posted: #20
WESTGATE FOOTBALL CONTEST...............................

49ers
Panthers
Bills
Bears
Ravens

last choice came down to Ravens and Titans.  Get the feeling I made the right choice with Ravens since a huge line movement on the Titans of 3.5 to 4 pts. These huge movements don't workout very often.
 
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Posted: #21

Claw, what is the 60% method? 

 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

interesting analysis Claw, and i am in agreement with just about everything mentioned. out of the NFC it really is going to come down to Rams or Saints but i give edge to the Saints... better QB, better O-line, WR equal, better RB depth, better Run D, pass rush,  only achilles is their secondary unit.. 

Bears are good for one playoff win, so i expect them to win their wildcard game. might be able to give Saints a run for their money, but i think Trubisky will end up losing it for them. however, Saints have had weaknesses with mobile QBs in past playoff apearances(Alex Smith), but if they can contain Bears running game and force Trubisky to throw the Bears could be in trouble even if Saints secondary has been iffy Trubisky might not be able to take advantage because of his inaccuracies. So far Saints run D has been up to the task although they haven't really been tested much. in the limited action they've had against good backs like Gurley and Zeke, they mostly held them in check. Zeke averaged 3.3 ypc, while Gurley only had 13 carries but had 5.2 ypc. but i'll give the Saints run D credit, they are better than last year.




If you look at NO ave per pass att before sacks, 8.4 - 8.2 = .2

wow they give up 8.2 yards per pass att, doubful any team has won SB with such a bad line.

but they have a very strong sack rate which gives them a borderline SB calibre ave per pass att margin.

any time I see a big weakness like this with a solid favorite would give me concerns with such high expectations on them and other very good teams like the Bears gunning for them because of those high expectations.

very possible you might be right as Trubisky could cost them late much like Bortles did for Jags last season.

let's see how these 2 teams finish out the season.

Bears have a chance to clinch division today and should get it done fairly large by double digits.
 
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Posted: #23
3-1 in contest, hopefully we pull off a 4-1 this week on Panthers
2-1 in plays with a good shot for 3-1 tonight on Panthers.


The Bears get it done again. And once again of all the top teams it was the Bears who delivered the biggest performance, pending the Saints tonight of course.

TRUBISKY CRUSHED RODGERS IN QBPR BY OVER 50 PTS and beat him up in ave per pass by 3 yards per att, Out-playing the Packers by 17 PTS  in pass heavy PR I.

Bears will increase their lead over the top teams , only Saints can try and play better tonight .

Ravens do it again as well with another over 200 yds rushing and they won QBPR BY ABOUT 35 PTS.

And once again the Rams are going in the wrong direction, another dreadful passing performance,  QBPR OF 66 to Foles 89 and beat up in ave per pass att by 3 yaRDS .


Not all that surprised to see Steelers beat the Pats, Pats don't appear to be the same team. Maybe they will prove me wrong, they have before but this team is not very good in the one area they are always good, yards per point margin.


 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

WESTGATE FOOTBALL CONTEST...............................

49ers
Panthers
Bills
Bears
Ravens

last choice came down to Ravens and Titans.  Get the feeling I made the right choice with Ravens since a huge line movement on the Titans of 3.5 to 4 pts. These huge movements don't workout very often.


week..............4-1

a strong week this coming week and we can finish up fairly strong.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:



60% METHOD..........................................

Bears -5 over Packers --- 5.5 units
Bills -3 (-105) over Lions





week..............3-1 ATS, won 9.5 units
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