Good luck Claw.
I had no intentions on betting this game. Especially with you on the Browns, I have to respect your systems.
One thing I'll say about the Browns being good at home is, you have to take it with a grain of salt. Look at who they played and when.
Bengals week 1, vs a busted up Burrow who had zero pre season. Bengals scored 3.
Titans vs a shitty Tannehill. Scored 3.
Ravens. Scored 28. Lamar and Fields have something in common, both can run.
49ers. Trent Williams and Deebo get hurt in game. Niners scored 17.
Cardinals. AZ scores 0 with Clayton Tune at QB.
Steelers score 10 with Pickett. Matt Canada is fired 2 days later.
Jaguars score 27, with Trevor Lawrence on one leg and without Kirk.
Also, another thing caught my eye on Monday.
I had no intentions on betting this game. Especially with you on the Browns, I have to respect your systems.
One thing I'll say about the Browns being good at home is, you have to take it with a grain of salt. Look at who they played and when.
Bengals week 1, vs a busted up Burrow who had zero pre season. Bengals scored 3.
Titans vs a shitty Tannehill. Scored 3.
Ravens. Scored 28. Lamar and Fields have something in common, both can run.
49ers. Trent Williams and Deebo get hurt in game. Niners scored 17.
Cardinals. AZ scores 0 with Clayton Tune at QB.
Steelers score 10 with Pickett. Matt Canada is fired 2 days later.
Jaguars score 27, with Trevor Lawrence on one leg and without Kirk.
Also, another thing caught my eye on Monday.
KC -7 -130 over Pats --- 1.3 units
Mahomes off a SU loss has been very good, off 2 SU losses, even better.
With such a big line movement on Pats even though it comes from the Pro's I like KC
The fact Mahomes blew up is telling us he cares a lot about winning. If teams lose and nobody blows up I'd be way more worried about how much those teams care about ?? winning.
KC -7 -130 over Pats --- 1.3 units
Mahomes off a SU loss has been very good, off 2 SU losses, even better.
With such a big line movement on Pats even though it comes from the Pro's I like KC
The fact Mahomes blew up is telling us he cares a lot about winning. If teams lose and nobody blows up I'd be way more worried about how much those teams care about ?? winning.
Lean ................
Ravens -3. -120 over Jags
Jags are not a very good team. They've been outgained in yards, outplayed in ave per pass att and ave per play, outplayed in QBPR.
Not very efficient with either yards or plays.
Maybe this game could come into a tiekreak situation for Ravens, conference record or something.
Haven't look into that but seems it could be a possibility of a tiebreak and if Ravens end in a tie.
Ravens the much better team, they do play 9ers next week but I don't think they let down here.
Lean ................
Ravens -3. -120 over Jags
Jags are not a very good team. They've been outgained in yards, outplayed in ave per pass att and ave per play, outplayed in QBPR.
Not very efficient with either yards or plays.
Maybe this game could come into a tiekreak situation for Ravens, conference record or something.
Haven't look into that but seems it could be a possibility of a tiebreak and if Ravens end in a tie.
Ravens the much better team, they do play 9ers next week but I don't think they let down here.
@theclaw
Bills -2 over Boys
Eagles -4 over Seahawks
KC -7 -130 over Pats --- 1.3 units
Ravens -3. -120 over Jags
Browns over Bears
How come you picking many teams this wk? Normally, I notice that you only picking a couple of teams/wk. This is what make you different from the rest of the pacts on here and YouTube as your winning record prove it. Just a little concern about changes and as to keep picking less games /wk that's working.
@theclaw
Bills -2 over Boys
Eagles -4 over Seahawks
KC -7 -130 over Pats --- 1.3 units
Ravens -3. -120 over Jags
Browns over Bears
How come you picking many teams this wk? Normally, I notice that you only picking a couple of teams/wk. This is what make you different from the rest of the pacts on here and YouTube as your winning record prove it. Just a little concern about changes and as to keep picking less games /wk that's working.
@oohhungry
Thx for the clarification! I haven't follow TC's long enough to understand Lean vs 1unit or 1.3units. I do incorporate his wkly picks into my wkly bets.
@oohhungry
Thx for the clarification! I haven't follow TC's long enough to understand Lean vs 1unit or 1.3units. I do incorporate his wkly picks into my wkly bets.
Eagles -3 (-120) over Seahawks --- 1.2 units
Pending plays ..................
Browns -3 over Bears --- 1.1 units
KC -7 (-130) over Pats --- 1.3 units
Seahawks looked good past 2 weeks VS strong teams in Boys and 9ers, problem is both those teams were in regression mode and due to regress so Seahawks performance in those games should not be counted.
This is another way to use regression.
Plus a lot of talk how Eagles are falling apart, seems like a good buy low spot on Eagles.
Eagles -3 (-120) over Seahawks --- 1.2 units
Pending plays ..................
Browns -3 over Bears --- 1.1 units
KC -7 (-130) over Pats --- 1.3 units
Seahawks looked good past 2 weeks VS strong teams in Boys and 9ers, problem is both those teams were in regression mode and due to regress so Seahawks performance in those games should not be counted.
This is another way to use regression.
Plus a lot of talk how Eagles are falling apart, seems like a good buy low spot on Eagles.
Sunday --- 1-0-1, won 1 unit
Another week without a losing record. Brownies pulled a miracle coming back and getting the push. Bears backers if they were smart got the ATS with +3.5.
Mahomes off 2 SU losses keeps rolling.
Sunday --- 1-0-1, won 1 unit
Another week without a losing record. Brownies pulled a miracle coming back and getting the push. Bears backers if they were smart got the ATS with +3.5.
Mahomes off 2 SU losses keeps rolling.
Thanks for all the comments and kind words this week. Been quite busy, didn't have time to get back here much and when I did time was very limited.
Hopefully we get the Eagles Monday night.
Thanks for all the comments and kind words this week. Been quite busy, didn't have time to get back here much and when I did time was very limited.
Hopefully we get the Eagles Monday night.
Sunday leans --- 2-0
Jags whom are not very good at efficiency with their yards and plays, which is situational football. We saw this at the end of the 1st half when TL foolishly throws to a player short of the goal line with defenders around him and he is tacked inbounds, and clock runs out. How can he risk such a play ? It's either throw into end zone or throw it away, there was plenty of time left at that point for another play or 2 before kicking the FG if needed.
Bills roll the Boys, wow complete domination. I do miss plays every now and again, I was busy last week and simply forgot Boys offense was in regression and due a poor performance. I was looking forward to taking TT under but just forgot. But that brings up another very important point, many talking heads talking about Boys poor play on the road, Dak can't get it done, I know better, these games need to get throw out, Boys should of been expected at some point to regress offensively.
Right play is on the Boys next week on the road.
Sunday leans --- 2-0
Jags whom are not very good at efficiency with their yards and plays, which is situational football. We saw this at the end of the 1st half when TL foolishly throws to a player short of the goal line with defenders around him and he is tacked inbounds, and clock runs out. How can he risk such a play ? It's either throw into end zone or throw it away, there was plenty of time left at that point for another play or 2 before kicking the FG if needed.
Bills roll the Boys, wow complete domination. I do miss plays every now and again, I was busy last week and simply forgot Boys offense was in regression and due a poor performance. I was looking forward to taking TT under but just forgot. But that brings up another very important point, many talking heads talking about Boys poor play on the road, Dak can't get it done, I know better, these games need to get throw out, Boys should of been expected at some point to regress offensively.
Right play is on the Boys next week on the road.
monday night --- 0-1, lost 1.2 units
week --- 1-1-1, lost .2 units
season --- 28-15-2, won 13.8 units
Brutal loss with Eagles leading the entire game then giving up a TD on that final drive, with what 28 seconds left. Got to hand it to Drew Lock and the Seahawks, they delivered when they needed to. But hey I have gotten my fair share of wins when my team delivered at the end, not going to workout every week.
monday night --- 0-1, lost 1.2 units
week --- 1-1-1, lost .2 units
season --- 28-15-2, won 13.8 units
Brutal loss with Eagles leading the entire game then giving up a TD on that final drive, with what 28 seconds left. Got to hand it to Drew Lock and the Seahawks, they delivered when they needed to. But hey I have gotten my fair share of wins when my team delivered at the end, not going to workout every week.
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