NFL WEEK 17 ........................2024

I saw this regression  method online. I like these type regression  methods. I may take this and use it in the future.

Home Teams off 900 yards of offense over past 2 games and their next opp is off a SU win these off the 900 yards of offense are 9-33 ATS.

This fits at least 1 team this week but I didn't write down which team.

Here's another interesting  one .......

Team off a win as a dog playing a team off a loss as a Fav & a single digit home fav , these teams are 15-31 ATS.

This fits a team also but unfortunately  I didn't wrote that down either.

Easy enough to look upvwhen I get time.

@theclaw

 Like that Panthers play....

Fits Bucs who gained 916 yards past 2 games and opp the Panthers off a win.

Fade the Bucs also fits teams fav by under 5 pts another fade on the Bucs

I also saw online teams playing for something VS opp not playing for anything, the team playing for something is 31% ATS over the long run.

I don't know how true that is only posting what I saw.

Fits fading the Bucs as well.

Lions also gained over 900 yards almost 1000 yards past 2 games but opp the 9ers not off a win.

Seems like the right side ...........

8.5 seems like a chunk - good teaser bet either way - Bucs won’t lose SU 

@RayRayK

 I'm seeing +9 ....

Anything official today?

I saw a +10 ........

No plays today...........

No plays today and likely no plays next week. The BF doesn't  work as well towards end of season.

I will post my other system plays and my new regression method plays and possible some early thoughts on the playoffs if I look into anything.

Thanks Claw!

Zona did get the cover and was right there to win SU giving teams 17 and over mismatch 2-0 ATS thus far this week.

2 games to go. Lions and Eagles.

This method got crushed 2 weeks ago 1-5 ATS but then responded with a 2-1 ATS the next week and 2-0 so far this week.

That's what I like to see a method does not pile up losses weeks in a row, the ability to respond.  The method gained back most of the losses in 2 weeks. But depends what happens with the remaining  2 teams.

Hopefully it gets at least 1 win to go 3-1 and the 2-1 from last week makes it 5-2 after the dreadful 1-5 week.

My other system ...........

week --- 1-1

season --- 18-13

5 winning weeks to 3 losing weeks

all 3 losing weeks by 1 game under .500.

1 play this week on the Seahawks.

I am late to the party, could easily had -3 but because I won't take any was not anxious to make the play, was a little busy this past week.

I'll still take it though at -6

Seahawks -6 (-120) over Rams

My new regression  method over 17 mismatch went 4-0 ATS after going 2-1 last week coming off a dreadful 1-5 week before.

The Under 5 mismatched did bounce back big-time going 5-0 ATS

we fade these teams but they were on an incredible pathetic pace of 3-13 so fading them would be 13-3 ATS

Not really sustainable so not really surprised by the big werk.

Now 8-13 ATS or fading them is 13-8 ATS. 61.9%

The Ravens are very near a fade on my new BF II.

A big win VS Browns could push them to a fade entering the playoffs.

The play on my new regression  method would be over 17 mismatch on the Browns.

And close to a 30 mismatch on the Steelers over Bengals.

I do like my Steelers who are 9-6 ATS from week 2 on. After being a week 1 biggest performer off a ten win season.

However the other biggest performer 9ers off a 10 win season became the 1st team to post a very bad losing ATS record. They never could over-come their redzone problems then injuries hit.

Neither team was able to win their division which these teams do like 75% of the time. Well not very likely though although Ravens being more to regression could be a surprise, it happens in these spits but I doubt Browns win SU.

Steelers off 3 losing ATS and SU games is a very good spot to back these big performers. 

I'll wait out the line.

@theclaw

 Might be rethinking making a futures bet on Ravens.....

So you don't see them winning the AFC?

I think Ravens will be no.1 in my Power ratings. It's  between them and Detroit but Lions recent poor play Ravens may have passed them.

Not sure until I run everything after this week.

We'll  see how Ravens play this week. Best for them to win a closer game and not dominate so much.

Claw, are you considering taking PITT +2.5 today vs. CINCI ?