NFL Week 18 - Last Dance...

@ActionMagnet

 Do you realize how much of a douche you sound like? lol! #vanistheman

@vanzack

 Great season!  Good luck in the playoffs! 

Another great week Vanzack…any idea yet when you will be posting your plays for the Playoffs?

@Raiders22

Thanks.  I wanted to get back to your post....  Very well thought out.  Just ran out of time.

Briefly...  My calculations go through my own smoothing process for SOS, and lot of "adversarial strength" metrics that can be somewhat subjective.  I also include fumbles, whether lost or not lost.

I think we were close on our conclusions - but not exact - and the point is taken that I need to be more precise when quoting something that should be universally objective.

Continued GL - and really impressed by your comments.

Trying for earlier.....  But injuries are incredible this season - and need to digest first.

@vanzack

 Much appreciated and good luck!

@Raiders22

Would you mind sharing where you get your info, please?  I'm trying to find better sites for information on stats, etc.

Thanks!

@vanzack

 Thanks.  Not saying you need to be more precise.  I was just curious what all you were including there.  With the fumbles I get that.  Even just INTs to me are not exact enough.  Can be a tipped ball by a receiver, etc.  

I just like the efficiency stuff better than raw numbers or totals.  

I then can use rolling averages over a period of time and put the strength adjustments in. Etc.

@TDHCentral

I use a few for each sport.  There are some free ones.  But a couple I use cost.  But for me the cost is well worth it for what they provide.

PFF does a good job.

FTNfantasy and FTNdaily have a lot of good stuff.

sportsinfosolutions is good because I use it for other sports as well

For example, with pro.sisdatahub you can sort through the advanced statistics and you can pull out exactly what you want to look at and use.  You can use certain time frames or situational things, like down and distance or score differential.  Because a team getting a lot of trash yards when behind 2-3 scores does not matter as much to me.

This way I can get a better look at a team's efficiency or a player's efficiency.  

For me it matters more how productive a team is passing when it matters.  Not just how many total passing yards they have.  I care more about the Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt or the Points Earned/Play.

For example, everyone knows the Vikings blitz a lot.  But I can look at their rating against and see it is 22nd at 93.9.  But I can see when they rush 5 or more it is 7th worst at 108.1.  So, is it worth it for them to blitz as much, etc.

Then I can see Goff under no pressure is 4th with a rating of 108.1.  But he has a big drop-off under pressure to 15th with a rating of 67.3

So, it helps some in that aspect.  Because some teams are too aggressive against the wrong guys and not aggressive enough against others.

Then I can look at just the last 3 games or 5 games or just home games, etc.

So, a lot of my stuff is statistical and matchup-driven.  I think it has helped me over the years.

@TDHCentral

 I do not want to hijack the thread.  But if you think these things might help you, I would recommend trying a few of them that have the standard efficiency stuff like DVOA, CPOE, EPA -- etc.

But try the free ones first.

See if you think they are of any use to you before you pay for a database that does this for you.

It may not be of any use to you.  A lot of very good handicappers look at just raw numbers, matchups, or go by feel, etc.

So, if you are not a numbers guy it might not be helpful at all.  To me it has helped take emotion, or whatever, out of it to some extent.

Good luck if you like them.  

Well done, once again 

Vanzack ur the betting god

@Raiders22

 Extremely good info!  Thank you so much!  I will check them out!  You do dig a bit deeper than me, for sure, but I think you make a great point about getting emotion out of the equation. 

Solid year Vanzack.  Just ignore the azzhats.

Thank you