NFL Week 18 - Last Dance...

Colts wont be able to run.  Depending on what stats you subscribe to, Texans are close to the top of the NFL in adjusted rushing defense.  They are also close to the top of the NFL in pressure rate.

Guess who turns the ball over more than anyone in the NFL when pressured?  Minshew.

Texans get out early and Colts have to play catch up - and once one dimensional the Texans should feast.

Only thing keeping it from being a higher unit play for me WAS the -2 at time of posting, and PK it is 3 units....

Texans win 28-16

I can understand the line move, although I dont agree with it.

Home dog, in a playoff game....  Lots of people bet on that alone.

Good luck this weekend!

Damn Van, you get some sharp lines...

Buf -2.75   

Appreciate the plays

Any futures on SB matchup?

Who do you like?

GL This weekend

hahahhaha

also last dance…with Mary Jane 

@vanzack

 lol I’m an idiot.   Thanks……

Get em Van !!! 

VAN 

We are finally on the same page, not sure if that's a good thing though?   https://www.covers.com/forum/penalty-box-41/cd-newsletter-week-18-103805941

thanks for posting and thanks for the season..........

Thanks for sharing your plays - hell of a run this season. Could you elaborate on the 3 unit Bears play? 

Bears certainly been lights out lately, but Jaylon Johnson (doubtful) is a big loss, plus even Kyler Gordon is questionable. Would leave their secondary paper thin, meanwhile GB offense getting healthier (first time since Week 1 all of GBs primary weapons will be on the field together).

On the other side of the ball, Fields is also one of the very few QBs this defense plays well against. Fields is at his best vs. man coverage and/or vs. the blitz; but GB is a heavy zone-based scheme that rarely blitzes. Likely a big reason why Fields is winless vs. GB (0-5 with 4 TDs / 7 INTs). 

Not completely shocked to see you on Chicago (as I know Chicago's weighted DVOA/performance in past month is elite)... but surprised it's one of your more confident/higher unit plays, given the above.

@vanzack

I am wondering what you mean or where you get your numbers from?

Looking at QBs with at least 50 attempts:

The numbers I have show Howell, Mahomes, Lawrence, Allen, Goff, Herbert, M Jones, Hurts with 5 or more INTs when pressured.  They all have more than Minshews’ 4 when pressured.

17 QBs have a worse INT% under pressure than his 2.6%.  155 throws under pressure with 4 INTs.

That is part of the reason he has only been the 21st most pressured QB at only 37.6% of the time.

There is a drop off in his efficiency and rating when pressured.  His rating drops from 97.8 to 60.2.  But even Mahomes has a drop from 105 to 66.1.

They have been pressuring him at 35.7%.

But HOU does have 6th most pressuring team.

Just curious where you see very different stats on Minshew? 

Cards looks solid this week. Just missing the Patriots hahaha 

Vanzack, let’s kickoff the weekend with a big W! Go Texans and BOL to you my friend.

Cheers! 

Wrong tgread

great to see you and Fezz having civil discourse. 

I noticed that 47 is the highest total set this year for the Colts. They had a few around 45 but 47 is the highest. 

For a team that's been going Over 8 of the last 11  (11-5 season Over), do think this total is inflated? 

Colts have only scored 7 touchdowns the last 4 games and 3 were in the Pitt game. The Colts only mustered 4 touchdowns against the non playoff contenders Cincy, Atlanta, and Vegas. 

Thanks for sharing Van!

Neil Young! 

That was way more stressful than I was hoping for on a mellow Saturday evening.

There's nothing mellow about January 6th...

#neverforget

big congrats on houston winner