NFL WEEK 1........................................REGRESSION 2019

Question

TOP 2 MISMATCHES......................................

in 3 areas.

Close Wins ---Giants over Boys diff of 10

Panthers over Rams diff of 9

8 seems to be the level teams win at high %'s. 10-3 ATS 2005-2016......2-0 ATS last year with Browns over Steelers and Bears 8 over Packers. not sure about 2017

Expected Wins..............Giants over Boys diff 3.6

Panthers over Rams diff 2.9

2.9 to 3.9 seems the point teams win aT A HIGH RATE.....15-3 ATS 2005-2016. last year we had 2 teams over 3.9 and went 2-0 ATS with Browns over Steelers and Ravens over Bills

Wins...............Packers over Bears diff 7.5

Titans over Browns diff 7.5

9 or better seems to be the level of high % wins, niether team at that level this season. 15-2 ATS , 2005 -2014, BUT 0-2 ats LAST year, with Giants losing to Jags and Raiders losing to Rams. will try and update all years.

Backing the top 2 mismatches in each area rarely finishes with a losing record in any given year.

2010 -2014 --- 26-6 ATS

2005-2009 --- 21-14 ATS

WE had 2 years at .500, 3-3 and 4-4 in that span and all remaining years were at least 2 games over .500.

last season 4-2 ATS , 2017 WAS 4-2 ATS,

I DON'T HAVE THE OTHER YEAR 2016 AND 2015 UPDATED.

THIS SEASON WE HAVE 4 PICKS............................................

Giants, Panthers, Titans, Packers

Giants and Panthers both qualify in 2 areas so we make 2 plays on them, one for each area. And they both qualify on high levels in both areas, this is one of those situations where we have 2 strong plays with little downside risk, as worst case we go 1-1 with a strong possibility of 2-0.

As of now we'll wait out the Cam injury and see how it goes before taking any action.

theclaw · Accepted Answer

TOP 2 MISMATCHES......................................

in 3 areas.

Close Wins ---Giants over Boys diff of 10

Panthers over Rams diff of 9

8 seems to be the level teams win at high %'s. 10-3 ATS 2005-2016......2-0 ATS last year with Browns over Steelers and Bears 8 over Packers. not sure about 2017

Expected Wins..............Giants over Boys diff 3.6

Panthers over Rams diff 2.9

2.9 to 3.9 seems the point teams win aT A HIGH RATE.....15-3 ATS 2005-2016. last year we had 2 teams over 3.9 and went 2-0 ATS with Browns over Steelers and Ravens over Bills

Wins...............Packers over Bears diff 7.5

Titans over Browns diff 7.5

9 or better seems to be the level of high % wins, niether team at that level this season. 15-2 ATS , 2005 -2014, BUT 0-2 ats LAST year, with Giants losing to Jags and Raiders losing to Rams. will try and update all years.

Backing the top 2 mismatches in each area rarely finishes with a losing record in any given year.

2010 -2014 --- 26-6 ATS

2005-2009 --- 21-14 ATS

WE had 2 years at .500, 3-3 and 4-4 in that span and all remaining years were at least 2 games over .500.

last season 4-2 ATS , 2017 WAS 4-2 ATS,

I DON'T HAVE THE OTHER YEAR 2016 AND 2015 UPDATED.

THIS SEASON WE HAVE 4 PICKS............................................

Giants, Panthers, Titans, Packers

Giants and Panthers both qualify in 2 areas so we make 2 plays on them, one for each area. And they both qualify on high levels in both areas, this is one of those situations where we have 2 strong plays with little downside risk, as worst case we go 1-1 with a strong possibility of 2-0.

As of now we'll wait out the Cam injury and see how it goes before taking any action.

DoctorSuccess · Answer

Thanks, Claw!I was wondering when you and Indigo were going to post some Week One systems.

undermysac · Answer

Ron Rivera guarantees that Cam will play week 1, fwiw

DoctorSuccess · Answer

I&#x27;m wondering how effective he will be. The Panthers are also having issues with their kicker.

theclaw · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by undermysac]  Ron Rivera guarantees that Cam will play week 1, fwiw  [/QuotThanks for the info. Hopefully he knows what he is talking about

theclaw · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess]

I'm wondering how effective he will be. The Panthers are also having issues with their kicker.

[/Quote

Could be an issue, I think Rams will fall back this season with a regression .

Teams with 10 or higher season long wins mostly go under and Rams were one of those teams. And they were good in areas not repeatable.

theclaw · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess]

I'm wondering how effective he will be. The Panthers are also having issues with their kicker.

[/Quote

Could be an issue, I think Rams will fall back this season with a regression .

Teams with 10 or higher season long wins mostly go under and Rams were one of those teams. And they were good in areas not repeatable.

Got2win1 · Answer

theclaw is back in the NFL forum!!! Wooo baby, had to rub my eyes to make sure i wasn&#x27;t seeing things. Looking forward to the picks this season! Ticket window is going to be BUSY

Dubfire · Answer

yes sir

JWD1984 · Answer

I hope you&#x27;re right because I posted three of those picks back in mid-July.

lordbettington · Answer

Claw, with the giants are you talking about ml or just &#x2B;7?

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

Thank you for all of your time, effort, and expert analysis.

theclaw · Answer

&#x2B;7

theclaw · Answer

, looking forward to. The querry&#x27;s you post as well.

theclaw · Answer

Westgate Football Contest,,............GiantsPanthers TitansPackersJags

theclaw · Answer

Our Power Ratings have a pretty strong history of no.1 ranked teams who lose early in playoffs as Bears did last season coming back big-time the next season and winning the title.

We just experienced this in Arena football with Albany losing opening round in 2018 and roar'in back to win the title this season.

The Bears were weakest no. 1 we've had, that does put a little doubt into the picture whether they'll do it.

Bears will be one team we'll be watching closely this season, if they'll be a true contender they just might beat Pack by double digits week 1, but we stay with regression methods as it is little risk backing the top 2 mismatches in each area..

theclaw · Answer

Other interesting teams we&#x27;ll be watching is Jags with Foles magic,,  they might have beaten Saints in playoffs had received not fumbled deep in Saints territory .Foles should be huge improvement over Bortales.Mahomes will be very interesting as well,  he looks like a future all-time great but teams might just figure him out.He also is very,very likely to regress. Consider Brady had just 3 seasons over 110 QBPR and regressed every year after having one.It&#x27;s not sustainable to play at that rate,  plus Kc does not have the common denominators of SB winners the year before they win the SB.Kc defense was to weak and they did not do well in power and strength indicators we see with SB champs, Mahomes great season is what put them at the top,  with a Mahomes regression they&#x27;d really need to improve in others areas to be a true contender.Be interested to see if they can do it but I wouldn&#x27;t count on it happening.

tahoejoe2 · Answer

Watch out for Denver in the afc west.&#xA;Like Floes with Jacksonville, I think Flacco with Denver is what they needed.&#xA;Top 5 Defense. Vic(Chicago) is a defensive guru and Munchak(Pitt)  is the best OL coach in the NFL

lordbettington · Answer

&#xA;  Denver could win double digit games and contend in the west.  Fangio has had top 5 defenses in 7 of his last 12 seasons as a dc.  Bears will regress big time in his absence.   Pittsburgh offense will take a major step back without munchak.

lordbettington · Answer

&#xA;Fangios depature kills them, plus the amount of ints they got was so high last year, his schemes were a big cause of that, they won&#x27;t get as many ints.  Mcvay, and shanahan stated his scheme was the toughest they faced. The bears played a last place schedule last year, this year they get a tougher slate. They are more likely to regress and miss the playoffs like the jaguars did last year then improve and go on a sb run.

hockeydaboom · Answer

Bears going to cover.  Rogers going to get carted off the field... Bear down

theclaw · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by lordbettington]  &#xD;&#xA;Fangios depature kills them, plus the amount of ints they got was so high last year, his schemes were a big cause of that, they won&#x27;t get as many ints.  Mcvay, and shanahan stated his scheme was the toughest they faced. The bears played a last place schedule last year, this year they get a tougher slate. They are more likely to regress and miss the playoffs like the jaguars did last year then improve and go on a sb run.  [/Quote]Yes there are a number of indicators saying Bears will regress, including some I have.I have seen a number of anylsst and web sites talking about  Bears regressing, but those indicators are not 100%. U would always side with the %&#x27;s and call for a regression , however with this Bear team there is a strong indicator saying they will be a strong contender by year end.I think we might find out week 1, Bears might come into game very angry off last season playoff loss and win by double digits.Things I&#x27;ve been reading say players are determined to get back to playoffs and get redemption.

lordbettington · Answer

&#xA;There is also a season win total trend where if a team finishes over 4 games under or over there win total the following year it reverses back to the mean according to doc sports journal there have been 45 teams to beat their vegas win total by 4 or more games in the last 15 years, the following year said teams were 16-29 ov/un their win total.  The bears fit this criteria as well and they have won back to back 10 win seasons only once in the last 25 years.&#xA;I hope the bears win week one, then I plan on hammering the broncos as slight home dogs in week 2.  Broncos are 18- 1 su in home openers since 2000 and Fangio knows that bears defense pretty well.

JWD1984 · Answer

"Things I&#x27;ve been reading say players are determined to get back to playoffs and get redemption."&#xA;Who cares what players are saying???

theclaw · Answer

Giants &#x2B;7 over Boys ..... 6.6 unitsPanthers &#x2B;3 (-125) over Rams....7.5 unitsTitans &#x2B;6 over Browns..........3.3 unitsPackers &#x2B;3 (&#x2B;100) over Bears ....3 unitsWe have 2 plays on Giants and Panthers and both of those teams fall under methods that have produced very high % ATS wins week 1 over past many years.

NFL WEEK 1........................................REGRESSION 2019

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