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NFL WEEK 1........................................REGRESSION 2019

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Posted: #26

Phila -8 vs Redskins seems a bit much too..

 
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Posted: #27
Wins Improvement................

Another method we use. Basically we fade teams off big improvements and back teams off big declines in wins.

With last year fresh in people's minds we seem to find value going against lastt year.

We have 2 teams to back....Jags and Zona

4 teams to fade.......Bears, COlts, Texans, Browns

This method produced a winning Ats record for many years untill past 2 years.

2 years ago we finish 1 game under ..500, not to bad considering how many good years we've had. But last year we did lose every game, dreadful for sure.

As with any method there will be regressions. Hopefully we bounce back big-time this season.

This method does not take into consideration the opponent.

 
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Posted: #28
Packers +3 o(+100)over Bears........3 units
SD -6.5 over COlts .......... 3.3 units
NO -6.5 over Texans ........3.3 units
Titans +6 over Browns .......3.3 units
Jags +4 (-115) over KC ......3.45 units
Zona +2.5 (-105) over Lions .  ..3.15 units
 
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Posted: #29
Gl
 
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Posted: #30
Dadgummit, I like HOU based on several queries.  Here are the QR's (query results) of one of them which fades NO:

ATS:  5-17-0 (-6.68, 22.7%), Z = 2.35

While it looks strong, I frequently have had trouble with queries hitting over 72% as if the query (which often spots regression) itself is "due" for a regression.

Good luck with whatever you do with your actual money.  I am a recreational bettor of $6 units;  the money isn't that important.  I just like the intellectual challenge of possibly succeeding at something which stymies most bettors (including me), and brain exercise is healthy.


 
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Posted: #31
I forgot to mention that one parameter of the query is that NO had more regular season wins than HOU last year.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Dadgummit, I like HOU based on several queries.  Here are the QR's (query results) of one of them which fades NO:

ATS:  5-17-0 (-6.68, 22.7%), Z = 2.35

While it looks strong, I frequently have had trouble with queries hitting over 72% as if the query (which often spots regression) itself is "due" for a regression.

Good luck with whatever you do with your actual money.  I am a recreational bettor of $6 units;  the money isn't that important.  I just like the intellectual challenge of possibly succeeding at something which stymies most bettors (including me), and brain exercise is healthy.


Interesting, thanks for posting that.

Yes methods withstrong winning % do have regressions as well.

I also agree about the challenge of trying to win at something like this.    I love the challenge of knowing things nobody else knows.
The method I used Texans had huge improvement in wins year over year, such a huge improvement is many times more luck based even though team might have gotten more talent.

But I do agree NO having such a good year last year might regress as well, might be bitt  overvalued issue is I don't really have a method calls for it.

When I make plays off these type methods I play everyone as likely we end with a winning record so don't want too fool with that by trying to pick which team might lose 


 
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Posted: #33
Hey we're off to a good start. Bears did regress, the method was right on the money.

Packers crushed Bears in QBPR but played fairly even else where.

Packers players including Rodgers mobbed defensive Cor. After the game. 




I'LL be back after week 1 with our top 3 performers week 1 which was have gotten many surprise teams out of these top 3.

Won't include the Packers.
 
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Posted: #34
It's game day !!

Almost kick-off time.....................
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

It's game day !!

Almost kick-off time.....................
Good luck today claw
 
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Posted: #36

Another interesting team coming into season that we didn't talk about was   Ravens. 

 

Coaches were saying Jackson was going to be much improved and Ravens would unleash an offense never seen before in NFL.

 

Well after week 1, OMG, historic beatdown over Dolphins 

They ripped the Dolphins apart in pretty much every area outplaying them by even more then the final score would indicate.

Ravens will be in our top 3 performers for week 1. And a team coming off a 10 win season. Teams like this go on to win division and make championship game a high % of times. And are great plays to back them every game the rest of season.

 

Yes they will regress at some point coming off such a monster beatdown but I doubt it will be next week . 

 

The other team likely to be in top 3 is Titans, however their play on field was not as good as the final score indicated.

 

Big big difference between how much those 2 teams outplayed oops.

 
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Posted: #37

Another interesting team coming into season that we didn't talk about was   Ravens. 

 

Coaches were saying Jackson was going to be much improved and Ravens would unleash an offense never seen before in NFL.

 

Well after week 1, OMG, historic beatdown over Dolphins 

They ripped the Dolphins apart in pretty much every area outplaying them by even more then the final score would indicate.

Ravens will be in our top 3 performers for week 1. And a team coming off a 10 win season. Teams like this go on to win division and make championship game a high % of times. And are great plays to back them every game the rest of season.

 

Yes they will regress at some point coming off such a monster beatdown but I doubt it will be next week . 

 

The other team likely to be in top 3 is Titans, however their play on field was not as good as the final score indicated.

 

Big big difference between how much those 2 teams outplayed oops.

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Giants +7 over Boys ..... 6.6 units
Panthers +3 (-125) over Rams....7.5 units
Titans +6 over Browns..........3.3 units
Packers +3 (+100) over Bears ....3 units


We have 2 plays on Giants and Panthers and both of those teams fall under methods that have produced very high % ATS wins week 1 over past many years.


With 2 plays on GIants and Panthers we went ........2-2-2 ATS, lost .6 units

Son of a gun, had we got the 3.5 on Panthers but with injury to Cam we waited. But again shows the importance getting best line you can.

Thankfully we laid extra juice to get the 3.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Packers +3 o(+100)over Bears........3 units
SD -6.5 over COlts .......... 3.3 units
NO -6.5 over Texans ........3.3 units
Titans +6 over Browns .......3.3 units
Jags +4 (-115) over KC ......3.45 units
Zona +2.5 (-105) over Lions .  ..3.15 units
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Packers +3 o(+100)over Bears........3 units
SD -6.5 over COlts .......... 3.3 units
NO -6.5 over Texans ........3.3 units
Titans +6 over Browns .......3.3 units
Jags +4 (-115) over KC ......3.45 units
Zona +2.5 (-105) over Lions .  ..3.15 units


3-3 ATS, lost 1.05 units

We finished .500 in both methods.

We can't win every week but if we can hang around .500 and eventually have our moments all is good.

Being realistic I'm good with .500 , getting hammered I'm not good with but if we can hang untill our moments come that's all we can expect.


 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Westgate Football Contest,,............

Giants
Panthers 
Titans
Packers
Jags


2-3 ,...............week 1
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Dadgummit, I like HOU based on several queries.  Here are the QR's (query results) of one of them which fades NO:

ATS:  5-17-0 (-6.68, 22.7%), Z = 2.35

While it looks strong, I frequently have had trouble with queries hitting over 72% as if the query (which often spots regression) itself is "due" for a regression.

Good luck with whatever you do with your actual money.  I am a recreational bettor of $6 units;  the money isn't that important.  I just like the intellectual challenge of possibly succeeding at something which stymies most bettors (including me), and brain exercise is healthy.



Nice calll on Texans. 
Who you got next week ?
 
 
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Posted: #43
Top 3 performances week 1….......…................

Ravens 62.22
Vikings.  26.4
Pat's 22.71

Titans finished 4th 21.72


2 of out teams are off 10 wins or more last season. These teams win division at a high rate and make conference title game better then  50% . Will look up exact records when get the chance.


And these teams produce winning ATS records week 2-17.


We don't have a team off a losing record which we normally get and turns into a big surprise story, like Jags couple years ago.

Ravens dominate game so throughly they should have won by 62 points not 49.

Will be one of most dominating games played all season for sure.

Will be interesting to see where this team goes from here as a big week 1 game usually bodes very well for them.
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