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NFL WEEK 1....................Regression madness.....

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Posted: #1
Hey guys what's happening ? .................................

Another NFL season is on us once again.

Last season we rode regression madness to the tune of hitting 5 parlays in 7 weeks, including 2..5 teamers and winning our parlay play of the year and our play of the year using nothing more then regression methods.

Hopefully we can duplicate some of that success this season.

We start off week 1 with 3 regression methods, expected wins, year over year improvements and close wins.

By determining how teams did last season we can reach very strong conclusions about those teams that others simply can not see.

That's regression, going against the grain.

These methods are based on very strong handicapping principles that have been proven meaningful over many many,years of NFL play.

Here's The Deal.......................................................

Backing the top 2 largest mismatches in week 1 in each method has produced a strong 34-14 ATS record past 10 years.

Backing any team that qualifies at the minimum in 2 of 3 methods has produced a 25-10 ATS record past 10 years, 71.4%. 


Top 2 Teams in the 3 methods in  2015...........................................

Giants, Saints, Raiders, Jets, KC (Giants in top 2 in 2 methods)

Teams qualify in 2 of 3 methods not in top 2.............................

Ravens

We have 6 plays week 1.

This method has not finished with a losing record in any year past 10. 9 Winning years and 1 .500 year.

7 of 10  times it's finished at least 2 games over .500.

So we're coming large with best bet plays.ets

Gives us a great oppurtunity to get off to a great start this season.


Jets -3 (-125) over Browns --- 12.5 units to win 10 units
Ravens +4.5 over Broncos --- 11 units
Chiefs +1.5 over Texans --- 11 units


We'll wait-out the other lines and try and grab another .5/1 point or so.


Best of Luck This Season Guys and Enjoy Another NFL Season...........................................

 
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Posted: #2
Always a great read and great info.  Here's to a profitable season  
 
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Posted: #3
Thanks for your past opininions/models in the NBA and WNBA. Great stuff

Im on the ravens and Chiefs are a lean.

BOL this year claw.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by RicoCortez:

Always a great read and great info.  Here's to a profitable season  


 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Thanks for your past opininions/models in the NBA and WNBA. Great stuff

Im on the ravens and Chiefs are a lean.

BOL this year claw.


 
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Raiders +3 over Bengals --- 11 units to win 10
Saints +3 (-135) over Zona --- 13.5 units to win 10 units

Wait out the Giants , maybe we get 7.
 
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AND THE SUPER BOWL WINNER IS...........................................

Green Bay Packers..........

Seattle was my preseason Super Bowl winner pick the past 2 seasons.

Packers finished no.1 in one of my 2 power ratings last season, Seahawks no. 1 in the other and my favorite going into the playoffs.

And the way they lost to Seattle, they will carry a chip on their shoulders this season, similar to the Spurs losing to the Heat in game 6 when they had the game won,  then rolling to the title the next season.

Even with Nelson out, Rodgers will make another receiver very, very good. It's QB's that win, not receivers. This has been proven over and over again throughout history.

Packers defense was dreadful the 1st half of season last year but was a complete reversal the 2cd half when they played very strong.


Pats being a weak statistical SB winner last season, and those type teams don't repeat very often, in fact 7 of the 8 repeat winners were strong statistical teams.

Out of the AFC I might look more at a somewhat surpise team getting to the SB, a team not amoungest the favorites at this point.

The Colts will be in the mix at the end but unless their defense improves quite a bit and Luck improves his turnovers I don't see a SB win or a SB berth.

The Colts also pass the ball too often, they need better balance but because Luck is so good, doubtful they will do that, the same mistake they made with Manning.

QB's and balance win SB's.

One player, no matter how great won't beat a team.

 When the Colts came-back down 21-3 at halftime VS Pats in the AFC championship game, inside the 10 yard line in the 2cd half Marvin Harrison said in the huddle to Manning, let's run the ball, and run they did, scored a TD and completed the comeback that day.

Manning likely would of called a pass, balance-baby !!!
 
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Posted: #8
Damn claw against all...
 
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Posted: #9
GL
 
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WESTGATE FOOTBALL CONTEST

I'll post my picks each week and track my record against the big boys.

Jets -3.5
Ravens +4.5
Giants +6.5
Chiefs +1
Saints +2.5

I needed to eliminate one team from the 6 picks above, chose the Raiders, hopefully it was the best choice.
 
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Jets -2.5 1st half --- 5.5 units to win 5 units
KC pk 1st half (-105) --- 5.25 units to win 5 units
Saints +1 (-115) 1st half --- 5.75 units to win 5 units
Ravens +3.5 1st half --- 5.5 units to win 5 units


We wait out the other 2 lines on 1st half with Giants and Raiders, but may have missed the boat with Raiders, line dropping.

Giants now at +6.5 for the game will wait it out and go for 7, will buy the half point if needed  but the juice too high right now.


Yesterday my cable box broke, you got to be kidding, got in touch with Verizon and they said looks like it's broken, they said we will mail you a new one, I said WAIT, I can pick it up at the Verizon location, she said I'll check for you, she says the closest location is quite far do you want it there ?

I said OH YEA, I'll be there when I hang-up. Got the new box and it did not work, then come to find-out it needed to be activated which they never bothered to mention , finally everything working. Talk about a last second clusterf#ck the day before opening day.

Spent a good part of the day being aggravated as all get-out wondering if I'd be watching any games today.

I hope you guys had a better day....................................
 
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Raiders +1 (-115) 1st half) --- 5.75 units to win 5 units

Less than 1.5 hours till kick-off...................................
 
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Posted: #14
2-0 ATS......1st halves

Nice to get-off to a good start......................
 
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Posted: #15
Thanks Claw. What's the right side in tennis this afternoon?
 
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Posted: #16
nice going so far on the early games

 
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Best of luck this season
 
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2-0 ATS on the games.............4-0 ATS overall in the early going.


The most impressive team thus far has been the Bills, they laid a beat-down on Luck and his Colts.

Bills defense and pass defense is on another level, if the QB can play well and this 1st game was not a fluke, look-out for the Bills, this could be the big surprise story this season.


 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

WESTGATE FOOTBALL CONTEST

I'll post my picks each week and track my record against the big boys.

Jets -3.5
Ravens +4.5
Giants +6.5
Chiefs +1
Saints +2.5

I needed to eliminate one team from the 6 picks above, chose the Raiders, hopefully it was the best choice.


2-0 ATS in the contest thus far
 
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Quote Originally Posted by billywaddy:

Thanks Claw. What's the right side in tennis this afternoon?

Have not had time to go over the numbers, I'll post it if possible......
 
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Son of a gun, Denver gets a FG with 9 secs left in 1st half to beat us, 0-3 ATS 1st halves in late games..........2-3 ATS on the day 1st half.

Ravens grab the lead 2cd half, Saints/Zona looks like it'll be close, Raiders finished, which looks like I made the right call in the Westgate contest.
 
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Posted: #22
US OPEN TENNIS..................................

Posted in tennis forum.
 
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Giants +7 (-115) over Cowboys --- 11.5 units to win 10 units

Giants +4 (+100) 1st --- 5 units to win 5 units


Ravens game was brutal, can't believe we went 0-3 ATS late games.

Need the Giants, we should get it.

Still have 1 parlay working from my Arena Football thread --- San Jose to win Arenabowl, KC, Giants.
 
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How bout those Cowboys !!! 

We won with Giants both 1st half and game to keep the string of 11 straight seasons without a losing record.

Can't win everytime unfortunately, but hey, going 3-3 both 1st half and game is not bad if that's your worst performances, sometimes not getting destroyed is just as important as winning big, we will have some big moments before all is said and done.

Ravens is the game really hurt us, could of, would of, should, almost was 4-2.


For those who followed along in Arena football we did hit our 3 team parlay, 1 unit to win 5.5 units.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

WESTGATE FOOTBALL CONTEST

I'll post my picks each week and track my record against the big boys.

Jets -3.5
Ravens +4.5
Giants +6.5
Chiefs +1
Saints +2.5

I needed to eliminate one team from the 6 picks above, chose the Raiders, hopefully it was the best choice.

3-2....... 1st week.
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