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NFL WEEK 1....................................Regression Methods

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Posted: #26
Westgate contest picks.................................

Giants, Raiders, Browns, Bears, Ravens
 
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Posted: #27
Raiders.  
Let's go Darwin
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Westgate contest picks.................................

Giants, Raiders, Browns, Bears, Ravens

Nice work Claw...
 
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Posted: #29
Gl today theclaw.
 
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Posted: #30

I Like your research, look forward to following it throughout the season, will probably increase my bets if you're on any teams i'm on....thanks  best of luck this season...

 
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Posted: #31
Our top 2 mismatches did well, going 4-2 ATS counting the 2 plays we had on Browns, won 11.9 units 

When Raiders were up at half looked like we had a good chance of 5-1..
 
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Posted: #32
Our just wins which uses only wins was dreadful 0-5 ATS, lost 28 units .

2cd year in a row we lost with this method after many years of winning. If if lose again next year will have to take another look at the method, these methods do have a good history of bouncing back off poor performances.

WEEK 1 ---------------- 4-7 ATS , LOST 16.1 UNITS
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Westgate contest picks.................................

Giants, Raiders, Browns, Bears, Ravens

We did go 3-2 in the contest with what looked like a good shot At 4-1 when Raiders led at half.

Next week have a good number of picks to get down to 5 picks.
 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

The most overvalued team according to Expected Wins is Bills -2.6 and Steelers -2.5.

The most undervalued team is Browns at +3.3, teams that fall 2.5 or more tend to regresss a high % of times and many will regress big-time by a good number of games 

Browns adding Tyrod by itself will be a big improvement, Tyrod has preformed very well VS weaker teams, has had some monster passer ratings but seems to play poorly VS the stronger teams.

With the Browns last place schedule he just might feast on these weaker teams.


Steelers were only middle of the league in yards per point on offense and not all that good in any meaning passing efficiency area for the past 2 years and Big Ben is a year older.

Maybe getting rid of offensive coordinator was the answer, maynot but this team's offense did not equal the parts 2 years running.


Bills should be heading down bigtime without a QB unless the rookie can step in and deliver right away, doubt Peterson will get anything done. 


The over-rated Steelers were exactly who we thought they were, once again their offense  will be at the bottom in yards per point.

Peterman is pathetic as he had a 0 passer rating, this guy has been dreadful beyond dreadful when he has been given a chance.

And the Bills look like the most over-rated team in expected wins.

Browns did look much improved , interesting game next week as Saints off a loss will be hungry for sure. 
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