NFL WEEK 1....................................Regression Methods

We'll have our regression methods which have not yet finished with a losing record week 1.

This year we have at least 7 plays, possible more , have not looked into everything just yet.

And we have some monster mismatches, possibly some of the largest mismatches in regression we've ever seen in week 1.

We're talking in the 89% probability level.  WE could  have some really great spots with a very slim to almost no risk situations.

Will have the picks as we get closer to week 1.

First up guys, we have a play today on the final week of Arena Football season backing the best team in the Power Ratings with 3 of the 4 teams tied for no. 1 seed.

Interesting playoff format with a 2 game series 1st round, home & home.

Will have that over in the Arena thread.

I can tell you right off the bat the Eagles, Vikes and Rams will all regress a bit this year . Bol this upcoming season

Yes likely regress a bit, in one area they do show regression but in other areas like expected wins they don't.

I'll need to check the history of the different areas.

Buffalo finished the worst team in expected wins -2.6, in other words they should of won 2.6 games less then they actually won, they are not as good as their record suggests.

And they lost their starting QB, unless Allen steps in and is a very good QB which I suppose is possible  this team looks to be going way down.

Speaking of defending champs, there is a new kid in town in the WNBA and I'll have all that in the WNBA threads coming sometime in a week or so, hopefully.

Could bring us some great value on futures.

Best of luck this season.

While Shurmur was a great playcaller, the main thing was the offensive line which got a lot better with the rookie Eflien, Rieff, and Remmers. 3 huge additions. Also we replaced Shurmur with John DelFippo, eagles QB coach who is probably going to be a one and done coordinator and get a head coaching job like Shurmur. Theres lots of talent on the offensive side with Diggs, Thielen, Rudolph, a healthy Cook and Murray, then you add Kirk who is miles ahead of Case it should only get better. No need to even mention the defense who added Sheldon Richardson, scary if this team can stay healthy will be back in Conference championship hopefully at home this time. 

Thanks for all the kind words and comments guys and best of luck this season.

I think we could be in for a big year since some of our methods had off years last year and does not happen very often 2 years in a row.

Wit that said............on to our week 1 regression picks.......... 

First we have our largest mismatch method, 4-2 ATS last season ,  using our 3 regression methods and we back the 2 largest mismatches in each method, gives us 6 plays or so, we can have more with ties or fewer with same team being in 2 or all 3 methods.

Regardless we back each method which means we may have to back the same team twice or even 3 times, we stay the course with the info and collect our winnings.

OUR 3 METHODS............Close Wins, Expected Wins, Just Wins

CLOSE WINS..........................................2005 -2017

a 4-7 game mismatch --- 27-22 ATS- 55.1%

8 games or more --- 10-3 ATS - 77%

top 2 largest mismatches --- 18-12 ATS - 60%, 2-0 ATS last year

Browns +4.5 (-105)  12 games over Steelers --- 7.35 units to win 7 units

Bears +7.5 8 games over Packers  --- 7.7 units

both games fall in the highest win % area of 8 games or more

2-2.8 mismatch --- 14-10 ATS- 58.3%

2.9 or better --- 18-7ATS - 72%

top 2 --- 19-8 ATS - 70.4%..........2-0 ATS last year

Browns -4.5 (-105) 5.8 mismatch over Steelers --- 7.35 units

Ravens 4 game over Bills ..........let's wait out line see if we can get -7 to win 7 units

JUST WINS...............................2005-2017

6 - 8.5 games --- 20-11 ATS - 64.5%

9 games or more --- 15-2 ATS - 88.2%

top 2 --- 21-9 ATS - 70%, but 0-2 ATS last year

Giants +3 (-120) monster 15 games over Jags --- 8.4 units to win 7

Raiders +4.5 another monster 13 games over Rams --- 7.7 units

Incredible and for the very first time since at least 2005 every play falls under the highest win probability area for each method, suggesting we have a slim to even slimmer chance to end with a losing record in week 1.

These will be my week 1 Westgate contest picks.

The most undervalued team is Browns at +3.3, teams that fall 2.5 or more tend to regresss a high % of times and many will regress big-time by a good number of games 

Browns adding Tyrod by itself will be a big improvement, Tyrod has preformed very well VS weaker teams, has had some monster passer ratings but seems to play poorly VS the stronger teams.

With the Browns last place schedule he just might feast on these weaker teams.

Steelers were only middle of the league in yards per point on offense and not all that good in any meaning passing efficiency area for the past 2 years and Big Ben is a year older.

Maybe getting rid of offensive coordinator was the answer, maynot but this team's offense did not equal the parts 2 years running.

Bills should be heading down bigtime without a QB unless the rookie can step in and deliver right away, doubt Peterson will get anything done. 

Have a great season Claw 

This method takes Just Wins but does not use mismatches VS opp. Teams qualify as fades or teams to back.

Fades ............... Jags, Rams, Vikings, Panthers

Back ................. Giants, Raiders , Texans

Jags and Giants along with Rams and Raiders play each other, leaves us with 5 plays. 

Unforetunately I don't have the history of such games but seems they do very well in that spot.

Interesting that the Cowboys almost qualify as a team to back so we almost have 3 games with teams playing each other. The Cowboys do have another huge mismatch of 9 with their opp, Panthers which has a 15-2 ATS record  , 88.2% based on our mismatch method.

This method has finish with a losing record 1 time in many years of posting the plays and that was last years 2-3 ATS.

Giants +3 (-120) over Jags --- 6 units to win 5 units

Raiders +4.5 over Rams ---5.5 units

Cowboys +3 over Panthers --- 5.5 units

Texans over Pats

49ers over Vikings 

We'll wait-out the lines on the last 2 games try to get 7

We could use these 5 plays in Westgate contest but  I choose the other set based on every game being in the highest win % area.

Hopefully that turns-out to be the best set of 5 plays.

Might just be a very good oppurtunity this early in the season.

And Cowboys also have a 9 game mismatch over Panthers , not a top 2 mismatch because Giants and Raiders are bigger  but still a 9 game mismatch which falls in the 15-2 - 88.2% .

 

Texans +6.5 over Pats --- 5.5 units

Ravens -7.5 over Bills --- 7.7 units

Son of a gun we couldn't get to 7 on any of these.