Bills @ Steelers Play: Steelers -10 Comment: I am not a big fan of laying such points in pro football, but the Steelers actually appear to be undervalued in today’s game. Don’t let last weeks one point loss fool you. The Bills were thoroughly dominated by a Broncos team that looked as rusty as can be, and have never been as potent on the road. Sunday will be a much more difficult match up for a Bills club who are coming into this game with potential emotional distractions of a heart breaking loss against the Broncos and more importantly the injury to Everett. Despite the Broncos offense showing rust and employing a suspect game plan, they were able to move the ball at will against a Bills defense that came into the game battling some injuries and free agency losses, and now have to deal with another key injury to Simpson. Expect the Bills defense to have even more problems this week against a Steelers offense that responded well to their new coordinators game plan. The Bills lacking depth in their secondary is the last thing they want against a Steelers team that used more multiple receiver sets than any other team last week. Expect Ben to put forth another solid week where he will find match up problems that can lead to big plays. Not only does Holmes and Ward provide match up problems to the suspect Bills starting corners, but the multiple receiver sets is where the Steelers have the biggest advantage in the passing game. The Bills lack size on defense, especially when forced to employ the Cover 2 and nickel situations the Steelers formations will force them into. This does not bode well against the Steelers power running game and physicality in the trenches that should dominate the finesse style the Bills line provides. Expect a well balanced attack from the Steelers offense, as they possess match up problems for the Bills on the ground and through the air. Only this week, the Bills being outmatched on defense should lead to a lot more points allowed.
With all the talk of the Steelers/Browns game circulating around the Steelers offense and the lack thereof from the Browns offense, the Steelers defense did not get the credit they deserved. The Steelers defense has always been one of the best against sub par offenses, as they proved it again last week, and have a good chance of doing such again this week. Lynch looked good last week, but his running style is dependent on miss tackles, something that will be hard to come by against a top tier tackling team like the Steelers. Expect the Steelers to constantly stack the box early with Palamula, magnify the advantage they already possess against the Bills run game, thus forcing Losman to beat them with his arm. Losman has never been as efficient on the road, and has always been more prone to mistakes when not backed by an effective run game or when facing a heavy dose of blitzing in which he is likely to face on Sunday. With a lack of a second receiving option and time in the pocket, expect the Steelers to make another young quarterback look really bad this week. Without special teams help, the Bills offense may have problems getting into double digits.
The Bills may use Everett’s injury as a motivation, but more likely, the Bills are emotionally drained to get up to play a top tier team like the Steelers. Emotions alone may allow them to keep this game close early, but once separation occurs, the Steelers may be able to pile it on.
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Bills @ Steelers Play: Steelers -10 Comment: I am not a big fan of laying such points in pro football, but the Steelers actually appear to be undervalued in today’s game. Don’t let last weeks one point loss fool you. The Bills were thoroughly dominated by a Broncos team that looked as rusty as can be, and have never been as potent on the road. Sunday will be a much more difficult match up for a Bills club who are coming into this game with potential emotional distractions of a heart breaking loss against the Broncos and more importantly the injury to Everett. Despite the Broncos offense showing rust and employing a suspect game plan, they were able to move the ball at will against a Bills defense that came into the game battling some injuries and free agency losses, and now have to deal with another key injury to Simpson. Expect the Bills defense to have even more problems this week against a Steelers offense that responded well to their new coordinators game plan. The Bills lacking depth in their secondary is the last thing they want against a Steelers team that used more multiple receiver sets than any other team last week. Expect Ben to put forth another solid week where he will find match up problems that can lead to big plays. Not only does Holmes and Ward provide match up problems to the suspect Bills starting corners, but the multiple receiver sets is where the Steelers have the biggest advantage in the passing game. The Bills lack size on defense, especially when forced to employ the Cover 2 and nickel situations the Steelers formations will force them into. This does not bode well against the Steelers power running game and physicality in the trenches that should dominate the finesse style the Bills line provides. Expect a well balanced attack from the Steelers offense, as they possess match up problems for the Bills on the ground and through the air. Only this week, the Bills being outmatched on defense should lead to a lot more points allowed.
With all the talk of the Steelers/Browns game circulating around the Steelers offense and the lack thereof from the Browns offense, the Steelers defense did not get the credit they deserved. The Steelers defense has always been one of the best against sub par offenses, as they proved it again last week, and have a good chance of doing such again this week. Lynch looked good last week, but his running style is dependent on miss tackles, something that will be hard to come by against a top tier tackling team like the Steelers. Expect the Steelers to constantly stack the box early with Palamula, magnify the advantage they already possess against the Bills run game, thus forcing Losman to beat them with his arm. Losman has never been as efficient on the road, and has always been more prone to mistakes when not backed by an effective run game or when facing a heavy dose of blitzing in which he is likely to face on Sunday. With a lack of a second receiving option and time in the pocket, expect the Steelers to make another young quarterback look really bad this week. Without special teams help, the Bills offense may have problems getting into double digits.
The Bills may use Everett’s injury as a motivation, but more likely, the Bills are emotionally drained to get up to play a top tier team like the Steelers. Emotions alone may allow them to keep this game close early, but once separation occurs, the Steelers may be able to pile it on.
Falcons @ Jaguars Play: Jaguars -10 Comment: This game consists of two teams putting forth horrible performances on opening day. The only difference was the notion that the Falcons horrible performance was due to being one of the worst teams in football, while the Jaguars performance was more of an anomaly, as they were dominated in two faucets of the game in which they held the biggest advantages in against the Titans. Expect a much better effort from the Jaguars this week, while the Falcons continue to search for their identity.
Don’t let last week fool you. The Jaguars have one of the best running games in the league. Their offensive line is physical and is backed by what might be the best running back combo in the league. This does not bode well for a Falcons defense that came into the season with one of the worst run defenses in the league, were thoroughly dominated by the Vikings run game despite a lack of passing game, and now suffered key injuries to Jackson and Coleman, making their run defense at that much more of a disadvantage. The Jaguars will be determined the game plan that they didn’t employ last week, which will not only allow them to exploit the biggest mismatch in the game, but also make Garrard’s like much easier. The lack of pass defense from the Falcons allowed Jackson to perform better than expected. Despite facing another sub par passing game, it is a passing game that is more effective than last week’s opponent, and feeds off the play action much more effectively. With the Falcons concentrated on the run, the Jaguars big receivers should get a lot of one on one situations and shots downfield (scored a 50 yard touchdown last week). When dealing with big favorites, one wants a dominant passing attack. But the truth of the matter is that the more the Jaguars run, the better chance they have of putting up a lot of points needed to cover big spreads. The huge advantage in the trenches should allow them to do such.
The Falcons offense is even worse than their defense. Despite facing a sub par pass defense last week, the Falcons were unable to reach the end zone. Things will only get more difficult for their anemic offense this week, facing an elite defense that is determined to avenge their embarrassing effort last week. The Titans were able to move the ball effectively by running right up the middle against the best tackle combination in the AFC. This was more than an anomaly than something one can expect to see again. Either way, the Falcons lack the power running game to attack the A gap, and should once again rely on Harrington’s arm to move the chains. Although Harrington completed a high rate of his attempts, it was a passing game not terribly productive and prone to mistakes. Having a group of finesse receivers is the last thing you want against a physical Jaguars secondary that can exploit this characteristic. The Falcons are simply outmatched in both offensive faucets to keep this game close.
Expect the Jaguars to come out with a chip on their shoulder and make quick work of this Falcons team. The Falcons lack of scoring quickly makes a double digit spread not as intimidating.
Colts @ Titans Play: Over 45.5 Comment: With both games between the 2 teams average just 32 points last season, it is no surprise that there is value on the Over this season. There is really no fundamental reason to why both games were low scoring, and the Over appears to be a good hedge to the Titans bet, as their defenses matching up against the Colts offense is my biggest concern. I don’t expect the Titans to keep the Colts offense down in the same manner they did last year. Their secondary has gotten worse since that time, while the Colts have more receiving threats compared to those games. The Titans are as vulnerable as any other secondary in the AFC in allowing second and third level passing, and even an anemic second and third level passing game of the Jaguars were able to take advantage of such a deficiency last week. Expect Manning to test downfield early and often, as he will try to turn this game into a shootout, and force the Titans to keep up through the air and not on the ground. For the most part, he should be successful accomplishing this task.
Not only has value been created on the Over due to last year’s scores, but because of the Colts overachieving defense as well. Although it does truly appear improved, it is no where nearly as good as what they have showcased the last few games. Although they have shutdown more potent offenses than the one they will face Sunday, the Titans provide match up problem other teams were unable to give the Colts. Expect Young’s scrambling ability and the interior running game that worked so well last week to the chains moving and provide the Titans scoring opportunities. Usually a heavy dose of running is not ideal for Overs, but this notion does not hold true in Colts games.
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Falcons @ Jaguars Play: Jaguars -10 Comment: This game consists of two teams putting forth horrible performances on opening day. The only difference was the notion that the Falcons horrible performance was due to being one of the worst teams in football, while the Jaguars performance was more of an anomaly, as they were dominated in two faucets of the game in which they held the biggest advantages in against the Titans. Expect a much better effort from the Jaguars this week, while the Falcons continue to search for their identity.
Don’t let last week fool you. The Jaguars have one of the best running games in the league. Their offensive line is physical and is backed by what might be the best running back combo in the league. This does not bode well for a Falcons defense that came into the season with one of the worst run defenses in the league, were thoroughly dominated by the Vikings run game despite a lack of passing game, and now suffered key injuries to Jackson and Coleman, making their run defense at that much more of a disadvantage. The Jaguars will be determined the game plan that they didn’t employ last week, which will not only allow them to exploit the biggest mismatch in the game, but also make Garrard’s like much easier. The lack of pass defense from the Falcons allowed Jackson to perform better than expected. Despite facing another sub par passing game, it is a passing game that is more effective than last week’s opponent, and feeds off the play action much more effectively. With the Falcons concentrated on the run, the Jaguars big receivers should get a lot of one on one situations and shots downfield (scored a 50 yard touchdown last week). When dealing with big favorites, one wants a dominant passing attack. But the truth of the matter is that the more the Jaguars run, the better chance they have of putting up a lot of points needed to cover big spreads. The huge advantage in the trenches should allow them to do such.
The Falcons offense is even worse than their defense. Despite facing a sub par pass defense last week, the Falcons were unable to reach the end zone. Things will only get more difficult for their anemic offense this week, facing an elite defense that is determined to avenge their embarrassing effort last week. The Titans were able to move the ball effectively by running right up the middle against the best tackle combination in the AFC. This was more than an anomaly than something one can expect to see again. Either way, the Falcons lack the power running game to attack the A gap, and should once again rely on Harrington’s arm to move the chains. Although Harrington completed a high rate of his attempts, it was a passing game not terribly productive and prone to mistakes. Having a group of finesse receivers is the last thing you want against a physical Jaguars secondary that can exploit this characteristic. The Falcons are simply outmatched in both offensive faucets to keep this game close.
Expect the Jaguars to come out with a chip on their shoulder and make quick work of this Falcons team. The Falcons lack of scoring quickly makes a double digit spread not as intimidating.
Colts @ Titans Play: Over 45.5 Comment: With both games between the 2 teams average just 32 points last season, it is no surprise that there is value on the Over this season. There is really no fundamental reason to why both games were low scoring, and the Over appears to be a good hedge to the Titans bet, as their defenses matching up against the Colts offense is my biggest concern. I don’t expect the Titans to keep the Colts offense down in the same manner they did last year. Their secondary has gotten worse since that time, while the Colts have more receiving threats compared to those games. The Titans are as vulnerable as any other secondary in the AFC in allowing second and third level passing, and even an anemic second and third level passing game of the Jaguars were able to take advantage of such a deficiency last week. Expect Manning to test downfield early and often, as he will try to turn this game into a shootout, and force the Titans to keep up through the air and not on the ground. For the most part, he should be successful accomplishing this task.
Not only has value been created on the Over due to last year’s scores, but because of the Colts overachieving defense as well. Although it does truly appear improved, it is no where nearly as good as what they have showcased the last few games. Although they have shutdown more potent offenses than the one they will face Sunday, the Titans provide match up problem other teams were unable to give the Colts. Expect Young’s scrambling ability and the interior running game that worked so well last week to the chains moving and provide the Titans scoring opportunities. Usually a heavy dose of running is not ideal for Overs, but this notion does not hold true in Colts games.
Niners @ Rams Play: Niners +3.5 Comment: Although the Niners did not play as well as I expected offensively last week, their defense did surpass my high expectations I had for them, which is a huge plus going up against a dangerous passing game in the Rams. The combination of Clements and Harris is one of the best in the league, while Spencer is one of the best nickels as well. This allowed them to shutdown the top tier receiving group the Cardinals brought to the game, and is a huge asset as well against another deep NFC West receiving group the Rams possess. Last year, the Rams passing game struggled greatly when they were dealt a series of injuries to their offensive line, as their passing game is highly dependent on timing. Already dealt a season ending injury to their best offensive lineman coupled with the injury to Bennett that should limit his effectiveness in this game, and the Rams offense is once again forced in the role of having to overcome key injuries in order to be able to perform up to expectations. Although the Rams hold the running advantage over a Niners defense that struggled containing James last week, it is the Rams passing game that has won the Rams their games in past years.
The Niners offense turned out to be a major disappointment in week one. They were unable to get Gore going (thanks to predominantly running behind the right side rather than the left) and employed an archaic passing game plan that did nothing until the last drive of the game. That said, their offense is better than what they showed in week one, and have a good opportunity to show such against a Rams defense that is highly vulnerable to the Niners style of offense. The Rams have always been vulnerable trying to stop the run. They did nothing in the off season to shore up this weakness, and it showed last week, allowing nearly 200 yards to an anemic Panthers running game. Things will only get harder for the Rams as they face a more potent running game this week that they struggled containing last year. Gore is one of the best backs in after contact yards, while the Rams are one of the worst tackling teams in the league, which should only magnify the advantage the Niners have on the ground. One of the reasons why the Niners passing game faltered last week is in large part due to their running game underachieving. With Gore expecting to be much more of a factor this week, Smith will be able to work under his element and feed of the play action that wasn’t used. He will also have more opportunities to take shots downfield while facing sub par pass rush.
This game appears to be evenly matched. The Rams have the better passing offense, while the Niners have the better running game. However, the Niners have the ideal pass defense to curtail this Rams asset, making both teams passing game about equal, while th Rams lack of run defense magnifies the advantage the Niners have on the ground. The Niners should run their way into a potential victory or a loss that keeps them within three.
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Niners @ Rams Play: Niners +3.5 Comment: Although the Niners did not play as well as I expected offensively last week, their defense did surpass my high expectations I had for them, which is a huge plus going up against a dangerous passing game in the Rams. The combination of Clements and Harris is one of the best in the league, while Spencer is one of the best nickels as well. This allowed them to shutdown the top tier receiving group the Cardinals brought to the game, and is a huge asset as well against another deep NFC West receiving group the Rams possess. Last year, the Rams passing game struggled greatly when they were dealt a series of injuries to their offensive line, as their passing game is highly dependent on timing. Already dealt a season ending injury to their best offensive lineman coupled with the injury to Bennett that should limit his effectiveness in this game, and the Rams offense is once again forced in the role of having to overcome key injuries in order to be able to perform up to expectations. Although the Rams hold the running advantage over a Niners defense that struggled containing James last week, it is the Rams passing game that has won the Rams their games in past years.
The Niners offense turned out to be a major disappointment in week one. They were unable to get Gore going (thanks to predominantly running behind the right side rather than the left) and employed an archaic passing game plan that did nothing until the last drive of the game. That said, their offense is better than what they showed in week one, and have a good opportunity to show such against a Rams defense that is highly vulnerable to the Niners style of offense. The Rams have always been vulnerable trying to stop the run. They did nothing in the off season to shore up this weakness, and it showed last week, allowing nearly 200 yards to an anemic Panthers running game. Things will only get harder for the Rams as they face a more potent running game this week that they struggled containing last year. Gore is one of the best backs in after contact yards, while the Rams are one of the worst tackling teams in the league, which should only magnify the advantage the Niners have on the ground. One of the reasons why the Niners passing game faltered last week is in large part due to their running game underachieving. With Gore expecting to be much more of a factor this week, Smith will be able to work under his element and feed of the play action that wasn’t used. He will also have more opportunities to take shots downfield while facing sub par pass rush.
This game appears to be evenly matched. The Rams have the better passing offense, while the Niners have the better running game. However, the Niners have the ideal pass defense to curtail this Rams asset, making both teams passing game about equal, while th Rams lack of run defense magnifies the advantage the Niners have on the ground. The Niners should run their way into a potential victory or a loss that keeps them within three.
Niners @ Rams Play: Over 43.5 Comment: Rarely do you see four faucets of the game that the offense holds the advantage in backed by a total this low, but this appears to be the case in this game. Despite the improved pass defense of the Niners, the Rams passing game is simply to hard to shutdown at home, and the best chance a defense has of doing such is via the pass rush not the secondary. This is the difference between the Panthers defense that was able to pressure the quarterback, and the Niners defense that relies on dominant coverage to shutdown a passing game. Mentioned last week, my biggest concern with the Niners is their defensive line and inability to stop an opponents running game. I thought they were able to mask this deficiency against a sub par running game of the Cardinals- but I was wrong. Things will only get more difficult for the Niners this week against a potent Rams run game that should provide balance to their offense and allow them to reach the 20’s.
The Niners offense is not nearly as bad as what they showed in week 1. When they run the ball, they will score points in bunches. Facing one of the worst run defenses in the league provides the Niners the second biggest running edge in week 2 (second to the Jaguars edge of the Falcons front). Not only will this allow them to move the ball effectively on the ground, but the Niners passing game is highly dependent on the run as well. Expect Smith to feed off this run game and put forth a better effort this week. Also expect more shots downfield, which should make drives less demanding on the clock.
Packers @ Giants Play: Packers +1.5 Comment: Usually high profile quarterback injuries are more than quantified into the line, but in this game, I feel the three key injuries to the Giants is not fully reflected by putting the Packers as underdogs. Lorezen is not one of the more adequate backups in the league, and lacks the ideal experience to counter a fast, aggressive, and underrated defense the Packers will showcase on Sunday. Ideally, the Giants would like to establish an effective running game to take the pressure off of Lorezen and limit his responsibility. Going into the season, the Giants running game was a huge question mark. Their offensive line has a lot of weaknesses that should curtail the consistency of a running game. Jacobs was looked upon as a change of pace back not ideal to carry the workload. Their running game has just gotten worse as the injury to Jacobs and Manning leaves a sub par running back to carry the workload, and also allows the Packers to stack the box on a consistent basis to make an unproven Lorenzen beat them with his arm. The Packers also have one of the most underrated secondary’s in the league to counter the depth the Giants have at the receiver spot. The Giants heavily depended on Burress last week, who should have a much harder time getting opened against a physical corner he does not match up well against rather than an inexperienced backup he dominated last Sunday. Simply put, the key injuries to the Giants offense should really hinder both the Giants running game and passing game, while also making them more prone to turnovers against an aggressive Packers defense.
The Packers offense is one of the worst in the league, but should have a better time moving the ball this week against an anemic Giants defense. The Giants defense performed as poorly as any other defense in the league last week, as they were unable to stop both the run and the pass of the Cowboys. Strahan proved not to be in game shape and was actually a liability on the field. The injury to Umenyiora leaves the Giants with two sub par ends, and increases the likelihood that an anemic Packers run game can actually establish something this week. The Giants are also vulnerable to the pass, as proved to be the case last week. They gave Romo time in the pocket all game, which bodes well for the Packers chances, as Farve is one of the more vulnerable quarterbacks in the league when under pressure. The Giants also showcased their weakness in their coverage by having to play a lot of zone and allowing their opponents to establish a first level passing game. This is also a huge plus for Farve, as he is at his best when getting the ball out early. The Packers offense is not a potent one, and will rarely have breakout weeks. But if there was going to be one, don’t be surprised if it happens Sunday against an injured and anemic Giants defense.
The Giants have too many issues and holes to warrant being a favorite. The Packers underrated defense should give the backups on the Giants problems, while their offense scores enough to pull off a road victory.
Vikings @ Lions Play: Vikings +3 Comment: I will be the first to admit that the Lions passing game outperformed my expectations last week, and still may be better than what I give them credit for. Having said that, I still find the Lions to be an overvalued “public” team once again this week. Despite the Lions matching up their biggest strength against one of the concerns of the Vikings (their pass defense), the Vikings approach to pass defense is what you want against a mistake prone quarterback like Kitna. The Vikings faced a similar approach last week when dealing with a high percentage short passing game of the Falcons. Although they allowed Harrington to move the ball downfield by completing a high rate of his passes, his propensity to make costly mistakes was the difference in the game, as the Vikings returned two interceptions for touchdowns. This bend-don’t break philosophy is ideal against Kitna and the Lions style of passing attack, as he is one of the better quarterbacks in the league at moving the ball downfield and having nothing to show for it because of mistakes at the tail end of drives. With the Lions lack of running game going up against a dominant run defense in the Vikings, the Vikings can better concentrate in defending the pass. Don’t expect the Lions to be as efficient as they were last week.
The Lions defense was unable to take advantage of facing one of the most anemic offenses in the league last week, as the Raiders offense moved the ball at will against them in the second half. Sunday they will get another chance of facing an inferior offense, but this offense actually has faucets that can attack the Lions defense. The Lions defensive front seven is vulnerable to power running attacks, something that they will have to deal with on Sunday. Although the Vikings may be without their starting running back, it is their offensive line that is the catalyst to their underrated running game, while Peterson has already proven to be more than adequate to fill the job. The Lions inability to stop the run should allow pressure to be taken off of Jackson, which is key in a road game. If McCown was able to throw for over 300 yards against a Lions secondary, while backed by a solid run game, Jackson should be able to do enough to keep the Vikings offense two dimensional and effective.
The Lions came into the season as a “sexy” team prone to inflated lines. Winning on the road as an underdog will only enhance such. In a game with two sub par teams, I will take the underdog that possesses the better running game and has the better defense.
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Niners @ Rams Play: Over 43.5 Comment: Rarely do you see four faucets of the game that the offense holds the advantage in backed by a total this low, but this appears to be the case in this game. Despite the improved pass defense of the Niners, the Rams passing game is simply to hard to shutdown at home, and the best chance a defense has of doing such is via the pass rush not the secondary. This is the difference between the Panthers defense that was able to pressure the quarterback, and the Niners defense that relies on dominant coverage to shutdown a passing game. Mentioned last week, my biggest concern with the Niners is their defensive line and inability to stop an opponents running game. I thought they were able to mask this deficiency against a sub par running game of the Cardinals- but I was wrong. Things will only get more difficult for the Niners this week against a potent Rams run game that should provide balance to their offense and allow them to reach the 20’s.
The Niners offense is not nearly as bad as what they showed in week 1. When they run the ball, they will score points in bunches. Facing one of the worst run defenses in the league provides the Niners the second biggest running edge in week 2 (second to the Jaguars edge of the Falcons front). Not only will this allow them to move the ball effectively on the ground, but the Niners passing game is highly dependent on the run as well. Expect Smith to feed off this run game and put forth a better effort this week. Also expect more shots downfield, which should make drives less demanding on the clock.
Packers @ Giants Play: Packers +1.5 Comment: Usually high profile quarterback injuries are more than quantified into the line, but in this game, I feel the three key injuries to the Giants is not fully reflected by putting the Packers as underdogs. Lorezen is not one of the more adequate backups in the league, and lacks the ideal experience to counter a fast, aggressive, and underrated defense the Packers will showcase on Sunday. Ideally, the Giants would like to establish an effective running game to take the pressure off of Lorezen and limit his responsibility. Going into the season, the Giants running game was a huge question mark. Their offensive line has a lot of weaknesses that should curtail the consistency of a running game. Jacobs was looked upon as a change of pace back not ideal to carry the workload. Their running game has just gotten worse as the injury to Jacobs and Manning leaves a sub par running back to carry the workload, and also allows the Packers to stack the box on a consistent basis to make an unproven Lorenzen beat them with his arm. The Packers also have one of the most underrated secondary’s in the league to counter the depth the Giants have at the receiver spot. The Giants heavily depended on Burress last week, who should have a much harder time getting opened against a physical corner he does not match up well against rather than an inexperienced backup he dominated last Sunday. Simply put, the key injuries to the Giants offense should really hinder both the Giants running game and passing game, while also making them more prone to turnovers against an aggressive Packers defense.
The Packers offense is one of the worst in the league, but should have a better time moving the ball this week against an anemic Giants defense. The Giants defense performed as poorly as any other defense in the league last week, as they were unable to stop both the run and the pass of the Cowboys. Strahan proved not to be in game shape and was actually a liability on the field. The injury to Umenyiora leaves the Giants with two sub par ends, and increases the likelihood that an anemic Packers run game can actually establish something this week. The Giants are also vulnerable to the pass, as proved to be the case last week. They gave Romo time in the pocket all game, which bodes well for the Packers chances, as Farve is one of the more vulnerable quarterbacks in the league when under pressure. The Giants also showcased their weakness in their coverage by having to play a lot of zone and allowing their opponents to establish a first level passing game. This is also a huge plus for Farve, as he is at his best when getting the ball out early. The Packers offense is not a potent one, and will rarely have breakout weeks. But if there was going to be one, don’t be surprised if it happens Sunday against an injured and anemic Giants defense.
The Giants have too many issues and holes to warrant being a favorite. The Packers underrated defense should give the backups on the Giants problems, while their offense scores enough to pull off a road victory.
Vikings @ Lions Play: Vikings +3 Comment: I will be the first to admit that the Lions passing game outperformed my expectations last week, and still may be better than what I give them credit for. Having said that, I still find the Lions to be an overvalued “public” team once again this week. Despite the Lions matching up their biggest strength against one of the concerns of the Vikings (their pass defense), the Vikings approach to pass defense is what you want against a mistake prone quarterback like Kitna. The Vikings faced a similar approach last week when dealing with a high percentage short passing game of the Falcons. Although they allowed Harrington to move the ball downfield by completing a high rate of his passes, his propensity to make costly mistakes was the difference in the game, as the Vikings returned two interceptions for touchdowns. This bend-don’t break philosophy is ideal against Kitna and the Lions style of passing attack, as he is one of the better quarterbacks in the league at moving the ball downfield and having nothing to show for it because of mistakes at the tail end of drives. With the Lions lack of running game going up against a dominant run defense in the Vikings, the Vikings can better concentrate in defending the pass. Don’t expect the Lions to be as efficient as they were last week.
The Lions defense was unable to take advantage of facing one of the most anemic offenses in the league last week, as the Raiders offense moved the ball at will against them in the second half. Sunday they will get another chance of facing an inferior offense, but this offense actually has faucets that can attack the Lions defense. The Lions defensive front seven is vulnerable to power running attacks, something that they will have to deal with on Sunday. Although the Vikings may be without their starting running back, it is their offensive line that is the catalyst to their underrated running game, while Peterson has already proven to be more than adequate to fill the job. The Lions inability to stop the run should allow pressure to be taken off of Jackson, which is key in a road game. If McCown was able to throw for over 300 yards against a Lions secondary, while backed by a solid run game, Jackson should be able to do enough to keep the Vikings offense two dimensional and effective.
The Lions came into the season as a “sexy” team prone to inflated lines. Winning on the road as an underdog will only enhance such. In a game with two sub par teams, I will take the underdog that possesses the better running game and has the better defense.
Cowboys @ Dolphins Play: Under 40.5 Comment: Being involved in a game that consisted of 80 points will certainly inflate a total the following week, and this game is no different. Truth of the matter is that the Cowboys offense is not as good as what was shown last week, while their defense is not nearly as bad. Instead of facing Manning and Burress, the Cowboys pass defense will now be up against Green and Chambers, a combination not nearly as potent. The Cowboys will also more than likely have the return of their best cover corner to compliment Henry, and make the Cowboys secondary much less prone to the passing game. The Dolphins best chance of winning this game is to turn this game into a slugfest rather than a shootout they are not equipped in contending in against the Cowboys. Expect them to employ a power running game that will allow Green to work in more manageable situations. The Cowboys have a good enough run defense to curtail the effectiveness of the running game, but the injury to Furgenson will make them more susceptible to keeping drives sustained. The Dolphins lack the ideal third level passing game that the Cowboys have been vulnerable against for over a year now. Expect a more conservative approach out of the Dolphins passing game that is more clock demanding and less prone to take advantage of the Cowboys weaknesses. The bottom line is to expect a better effort out of the Cowboys defense- and they face the ideal offense to make a statement. The Dolphins offense will have a hard time finding the end zone all year, and this game should be no different.
Things will not be nearly as easy for the Cowboys offense this week, as they are now up against one of the best and underrated defenses in the league. The Dolphins pass rush will not allow Romo to have all the time in the world in the pocket as he did last week, while they will not be able to turn short slant passes into 40 yard touchdowns like they did twice last week. The Cowboys will also be less likely to be able to establish a running game that makes their passing game that much more effective this week. The Cowboys entered the season with a suspect offensive line, but was able to mask it last week against a hapless defensive line of the Giants. Facing one of the best front sevens in the league should expose this weakness of the Cowboys, and make their offensive much less efficient. The injury to Glenn was also masked last week with the horrific play of the Giants secondary. In reality, Glenn’s injury is huge, takes away Romo’s favorite third down receiver, and allows teams to better concentrate on Owens. Despite having several red zone threats, the Cowboys effectiveness in the red zone diminishes substantially with Romo carrying the workload. This will more than likely be the case with the Dolphins possessing the decisive edge in the trenches.
Here is a case of books over adjusting to one week. Expect a better effort from the Cowboys defense as they face a hapless offense not suited to take advantage of their weaknesses. Expect the Cowboys question marks on offense to be exposed as well against one of the more underrated defenses in the league. These key variables should keep this game under 40 points.
Bengals @ Browns Play: Over 41 Comment: This Over is mainly intriguing due to the notion that the Bengals have a good shot of covering it on their own. In both games last year, the Bengals put up at least 30 points, while averaging nearly 450 yards against the Browns defense, and there appears to be no signs of evidence that things should be different in this game. The Browns secondary appeared overmatched last week against a passing game that had a lot of question marks coming into the season. Although Bodden has done a good job against Johnson in the past, there lacks a fundamental edge to think this past success is sustainable. The Steelers also found another weak spot in the Browns secondary last week, as the rookie Wright looked vulnerable in coverage. The Bengals simply have too many weapons for a suspect secondary to consistently contain, and lack a pass rush to make it more difficult on Palmer. The most intriguing part about when the Bengals have a decisive edge in their passing game is that the bigger the edge, the more shots they take downfield. Palmer is at his best as a third level quarterback, thus allowing the Bengals to score quickly and not demand a lot of time off the clock. The Bengals also have the edge on the ground, but are not the type of team to employ a power running attack when they could pass at will. Expect a second straight week in which the Browns will allow 30 plus points to a division opponent.
Ideally the Browns would like to employ a heavy dose of running, but if the Bengals advantages on offense leads to a lot of points early like it should, the Browns will once again be forced to abandon the running game early and not be able to put together drives that take a lot of time off the clock. Anderson is a better Over quarterback when compared to Frye, as he has a stronger arm and also more prone to mistakes that could lead to defensive scores. The Bengals are one of the best teams in the league in creating turnovers, something that could actually help the Over. The Browns passing attack is not designed to chip away at the field, rather move the ball in chunks, also an advantage for an Over player. The only edge they do have on offense is that they could create match up problems downfield for the Bengals with Winslow and Edwards. I am not expecting a lot out of the Browns offense, but they should perform better than they did last week. Expect more productive drives, but drives that are not clock demanding. In my opinion, they should score enough to put the Over above the mark.
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Cowboys @ Dolphins Play: Under 40.5 Comment: Being involved in a game that consisted of 80 points will certainly inflate a total the following week, and this game is no different. Truth of the matter is that the Cowboys offense is not as good as what was shown last week, while their defense is not nearly as bad. Instead of facing Manning and Burress, the Cowboys pass defense will now be up against Green and Chambers, a combination not nearly as potent. The Cowboys will also more than likely have the return of their best cover corner to compliment Henry, and make the Cowboys secondary much less prone to the passing game. The Dolphins best chance of winning this game is to turn this game into a slugfest rather than a shootout they are not equipped in contending in against the Cowboys. Expect them to employ a power running game that will allow Green to work in more manageable situations. The Cowboys have a good enough run defense to curtail the effectiveness of the running game, but the injury to Furgenson will make them more susceptible to keeping drives sustained. The Dolphins lack the ideal third level passing game that the Cowboys have been vulnerable against for over a year now. Expect a more conservative approach out of the Dolphins passing game that is more clock demanding and less prone to take advantage of the Cowboys weaknesses. The bottom line is to expect a better effort out of the Cowboys defense- and they face the ideal offense to make a statement. The Dolphins offense will have a hard time finding the end zone all year, and this game should be no different.
Things will not be nearly as easy for the Cowboys offense this week, as they are now up against one of the best and underrated defenses in the league. The Dolphins pass rush will not allow Romo to have all the time in the world in the pocket as he did last week, while they will not be able to turn short slant passes into 40 yard touchdowns like they did twice last week. The Cowboys will also be less likely to be able to establish a running game that makes their passing game that much more effective this week. The Cowboys entered the season with a suspect offensive line, but was able to mask it last week against a hapless defensive line of the Giants. Facing one of the best front sevens in the league should expose this weakness of the Cowboys, and make their offensive much less efficient. The injury to Glenn was also masked last week with the horrific play of the Giants secondary. In reality, Glenn’s injury is huge, takes away Romo’s favorite third down receiver, and allows teams to better concentrate on Owens. Despite having several red zone threats, the Cowboys effectiveness in the red zone diminishes substantially with Romo carrying the workload. This will more than likely be the case with the Dolphins possessing the decisive edge in the trenches.
Here is a case of books over adjusting to one week. Expect a better effort from the Cowboys defense as they face a hapless offense not suited to take advantage of their weaknesses. Expect the Cowboys question marks on offense to be exposed as well against one of the more underrated defenses in the league. These key variables should keep this game under 40 points.
Bengals @ Browns Play: Over 41 Comment: This Over is mainly intriguing due to the notion that the Bengals have a good shot of covering it on their own. In both games last year, the Bengals put up at least 30 points, while averaging nearly 450 yards against the Browns defense, and there appears to be no signs of evidence that things should be different in this game. The Browns secondary appeared overmatched last week against a passing game that had a lot of question marks coming into the season. Although Bodden has done a good job against Johnson in the past, there lacks a fundamental edge to think this past success is sustainable. The Steelers also found another weak spot in the Browns secondary last week, as the rookie Wright looked vulnerable in coverage. The Bengals simply have too many weapons for a suspect secondary to consistently contain, and lack a pass rush to make it more difficult on Palmer. The most intriguing part about when the Bengals have a decisive edge in their passing game is that the bigger the edge, the more shots they take downfield. Palmer is at his best as a third level quarterback, thus allowing the Bengals to score quickly and not demand a lot of time off the clock. The Bengals also have the edge on the ground, but are not the type of team to employ a power running attack when they could pass at will. Expect a second straight week in which the Browns will allow 30 plus points to a division opponent.
Ideally the Browns would like to employ a heavy dose of running, but if the Bengals advantages on offense leads to a lot of points early like it should, the Browns will once again be forced to abandon the running game early and not be able to put together drives that take a lot of time off the clock. Anderson is a better Over quarterback when compared to Frye, as he has a stronger arm and also more prone to mistakes that could lead to defensive scores. The Bengals are one of the best teams in the league in creating turnovers, something that could actually help the Over. The Browns passing attack is not designed to chip away at the field, rather move the ball in chunks, also an advantage for an Over player. The only edge they do have on offense is that they could create match up problems downfield for the Bengals with Winslow and Edwards. I am not expecting a lot out of the Browns offense, but they should perform better than they did last week. Expect more productive drives, but drives that are not clock demanding. In my opinion, they should score enough to put the Over above the mark.
Seahawks @ Cardinals Play: Over 42.5 Comment: It appears that performances from the Cardinals offense and the Seahawks defense in week 1 may have created value on the Over in this game. The Cardinals offense was shutdown most of the game against the Niners, which was not much of a surprise, as their offense goes as far as their passing game takes them (and were up against one of the best three corner combinations in the league). The Seahawks defense looked much better than they actually are, as facing the Bucs will make that be the case more times than not. Expect the Seahawks secondary to have a much harder time containing the talent the Cardinals possess at the receiver spot, which should allow the Cardinals to work within their means much better this week. The Seahawks secondary has some playmakers in it, but their overaggressive tendencies and vulnerability to the deep play is just not ideal against the Cardinals. Despite having some success on the ground against the Niners, I do feel that the Cardinals should have a hard time getting things going on the ground this week. However, the points and a solid running game is not as correlated to the Cardinals offense as it is with most teams. The Seahawks defense does not play with the same intensity on the road.
The Seahawks had success twice last year against the Cardinals defense, which was not a surprise, as they match up well against them. The Cardinals simply lack a strength on defense to consistently deal with well balanced offenses like the one they will have to face Sunday. Although the Seahawks started out rusty last week, in the second half they were able to pick up momentum and showcase their talent. Unlike the Cardinals, the Seawhawks offense is heavily correlated to the success of their ground game. Although the Cardinals were able to shutdown Gore better than most expected, they did that in large part by being able to constantly stack the box with Wilson thanks to the lack of fear with Smith’s arm. Expect them to not have the same luxury this week against Hassleback, which does not bode well for a Cardinals front seven that should be overmatched by the Seahawks running game. The Seahawks passing game also holds a distinct advantage in this match up. The Cardinals lack ideal depth in their secondary to contend with a team that could spread the ball around the field as well as the Seahawks, who had seven men catch a ball last week. Also, their proneness to get beat deep forces them into more zone coverage situations not ideal against a WC offense that is heavily dependent on timing, first level passes and vulnerable against press coverage. The advantages on the ground and in the air should allow the Seahawks to put together a few good drives. Their red zone efficiency should allow them to make the most of them. Both teams should reach the 20 mark, while the drop in the ask for the Over has made it low enough to warrant a play in my opinion.
Chargers @ Patriots Play: Chargers +3.5 Comment: In my opinion, the Patriots may slightly be the better team. This makes a 3.5 spread no surprise, and usually would make a 3.5 spread not carry any value on either side in such a situation. However, football is about match ups and also contains a higher rate of intangibles effecting the outcome of the game compared to most sports, two faucets that has created value on the Chargers.
The biggest edge in this game has to go to the Chargers running game against the Patriots defense, who should finally feel the poignancy of the absence of Seymour and Harrison. Although Tomlinson does not appear to be at full speed, expect a better effort out of him this week. The Patriots lack the ideal bulk up front to be able to stop a power running game lead by a massive line for four quarters without two key players in their run defense. Tomlinson will also be playing with a chip on his shoulder, which is the last thing you want when playing against the best player in football. Although the Chargers do not have the advantage in the air against the Patriots pass defense, they will not have to rely much on Rivers to keep them in the game. Fortunately, the Patriots have now become most vulnerable in defending athletic tight ends, and may face the best in Gates. The Chargers could get away with a lot of dump off passes to their running backs and tight ends, and not allow the complex looks to lead to a lot of errors other teams who are more dependent on their receivers are prone too.
Although the Patriots have a much improved offense and now one of the best in football, I just don’t see enough of an edge to make me think they win by more than a field goal. The Chargers elite pass rush will not allow Brady to have all day in the pocket like last week, and employ a dangerous third level passing game as well as he did. The Chargers elite run defense should also have no problem limiting the productivity of the Patriots run game.
Intangibles also favor the Chargers. The Chargers have been waiting to play this game ever since their emotional loss to the Patriots in last years playoffs. Although the Patriots are the last team to allow distractions to affect them off the field, I see this weeks spy issue more of a detriment than a potential motivational aspect.
Chargers @ Patriots Play: Under 46 Comment: Probably my favorite play this week is the Under in this game. Rarely will you see a game that consists of two top five defenses be accompanied by a total this high, especially this early in the season when defenses are more prone to being ahead of the offenses. The Chargers know their best chance of winning is to run as much as possible. Although they possess the best running game in football, the fact Tomlinson does not appear to be at his best right now coupled with facing one of the better run defenses in the league leads me to believe they will not be nearly as dominant on the ground as they are in most games. However, they should be better than last week and be able to grind out yards and use up a lot of clock. Don’t expect them to take a lot of chances in the air, and use the passing game to merely keep the Patriots defense off balance. Expect a conservative passing game that employs a lot of screens and first level passes that keeps the clock and chains moving, but does not move the ball in chunks.
The Patriots offense looked as dangerous as any in the league last week. However, this was in large part thanks to their offensive lines ability to give Brady all the time he needed to throw downfield. It would be hard to imagine Brady having the same luxury this week against the best pass rush in football, which should force Brady to get the ball out earlier and use a lot shorter passes that prevent quick scoring drives. Also not suitable against this Chargers defense is becoming pass happy. The Patriots know they will have to use a heavy dose of running throughout the game no matter the ineffectiveness.
This total is simply too high for a game containing two elite defenses. I don’t see both teams reaching the 20’s, which should make this high number hard to surpass
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Seahawks @ Cardinals Play: Over 42.5 Comment: It appears that performances from the Cardinals offense and the Seahawks defense in week 1 may have created value on the Over in this game. The Cardinals offense was shutdown most of the game against the Niners, which was not much of a surprise, as their offense goes as far as their passing game takes them (and were up against one of the best three corner combinations in the league). The Seahawks defense looked much better than they actually are, as facing the Bucs will make that be the case more times than not. Expect the Seahawks secondary to have a much harder time containing the talent the Cardinals possess at the receiver spot, which should allow the Cardinals to work within their means much better this week. The Seahawks secondary has some playmakers in it, but their overaggressive tendencies and vulnerability to the deep play is just not ideal against the Cardinals. Despite having some success on the ground against the Niners, I do feel that the Cardinals should have a hard time getting things going on the ground this week. However, the points and a solid running game is not as correlated to the Cardinals offense as it is with most teams. The Seahawks defense does not play with the same intensity on the road.
The Seahawks had success twice last year against the Cardinals defense, which was not a surprise, as they match up well against them. The Cardinals simply lack a strength on defense to consistently deal with well balanced offenses like the one they will have to face Sunday. Although the Seahawks started out rusty last week, in the second half they were able to pick up momentum and showcase their talent. Unlike the Cardinals, the Seawhawks offense is heavily correlated to the success of their ground game. Although the Cardinals were able to shutdown Gore better than most expected, they did that in large part by being able to constantly stack the box with Wilson thanks to the lack of fear with Smith’s arm. Expect them to not have the same luxury this week against Hassleback, which does not bode well for a Cardinals front seven that should be overmatched by the Seahawks running game. The Seahawks passing game also holds a distinct advantage in this match up. The Cardinals lack ideal depth in their secondary to contend with a team that could spread the ball around the field as well as the Seahawks, who had seven men catch a ball last week. Also, their proneness to get beat deep forces them into more zone coverage situations not ideal against a WC offense that is heavily dependent on timing, first level passes and vulnerable against press coverage. The advantages on the ground and in the air should allow the Seahawks to put together a few good drives. Their red zone efficiency should allow them to make the most of them. Both teams should reach the 20 mark, while the drop in the ask for the Over has made it low enough to warrant a play in my opinion.
Chargers @ Patriots Play: Chargers +3.5 Comment: In my opinion, the Patriots may slightly be the better team. This makes a 3.5 spread no surprise, and usually would make a 3.5 spread not carry any value on either side in such a situation. However, football is about match ups and also contains a higher rate of intangibles effecting the outcome of the game compared to most sports, two faucets that has created value on the Chargers.
The biggest edge in this game has to go to the Chargers running game against the Patriots defense, who should finally feel the poignancy of the absence of Seymour and Harrison. Although Tomlinson does not appear to be at full speed, expect a better effort out of him this week. The Patriots lack the ideal bulk up front to be able to stop a power running game lead by a massive line for four quarters without two key players in their run defense. Tomlinson will also be playing with a chip on his shoulder, which is the last thing you want when playing against the best player in football. Although the Chargers do not have the advantage in the air against the Patriots pass defense, they will not have to rely much on Rivers to keep them in the game. Fortunately, the Patriots have now become most vulnerable in defending athletic tight ends, and may face the best in Gates. The Chargers could get away with a lot of dump off passes to their running backs and tight ends, and not allow the complex looks to lead to a lot of errors other teams who are more dependent on their receivers are prone too.
Although the Patriots have a much improved offense and now one of the best in football, I just don’t see enough of an edge to make me think they win by more than a field goal. The Chargers elite pass rush will not allow Brady to have all day in the pocket like last week, and employ a dangerous third level passing game as well as he did. The Chargers elite run defense should also have no problem limiting the productivity of the Patriots run game.
Intangibles also favor the Chargers. The Chargers have been waiting to play this game ever since their emotional loss to the Patriots in last years playoffs. Although the Patriots are the last team to allow distractions to affect them off the field, I see this weeks spy issue more of a detriment than a potential motivational aspect.
Chargers @ Patriots Play: Under 46 Comment: Probably my favorite play this week is the Under in this game. Rarely will you see a game that consists of two top five defenses be accompanied by a total this high, especially this early in the season when defenses are more prone to being ahead of the offenses. The Chargers know their best chance of winning is to run as much as possible. Although they possess the best running game in football, the fact Tomlinson does not appear to be at his best right now coupled with facing one of the better run defenses in the league leads me to believe they will not be nearly as dominant on the ground as they are in most games. However, they should be better than last week and be able to grind out yards and use up a lot of clock. Don’t expect them to take a lot of chances in the air, and use the passing game to merely keep the Patriots defense off balance. Expect a conservative passing game that employs a lot of screens and first level passes that keeps the clock and chains moving, but does not move the ball in chunks.
The Patriots offense looked as dangerous as any in the league last week. However, this was in large part thanks to their offensive lines ability to give Brady all the time he needed to throw downfield. It would be hard to imagine Brady having the same luxury this week against the best pass rush in football, which should force Brady to get the ball out earlier and use a lot shorter passes that prevent quick scoring drives. Also not suitable against this Chargers defense is becoming pass happy. The Patriots know they will have to use a heavy dose of running throughout the game no matter the ineffectiveness.
This total is simply too high for a game containing two elite defenses. I don’t see both teams reaching the 20’s, which should make this high number hard to surpass
Good analysis. I'm liking most of the plays except the Vikings. There are just too many question marks with both teams. It's one of those games I'm staying away from.
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Good analysis. I'm liking most of the plays except the Vikings. There are just too many question marks with both teams. It's one of those games I'm staying away from.
Love 'em, love 'em, love 'em. Except the over in the desert. I wanted to like that, but Seattle's down a receiver, they didn't really look good on offense last week, and Arizona wants to run the ball this year more than ever.
I hope you hit it, but I'll stay off.
Nice writeups as always.
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Love 'em, love 'em, love 'em. Except the over in the desert. I wanted to like that, but Seattle's down a receiver, they didn't really look good on offense last week, and Arizona wants to run the ball this year more than ever.
On many of these picks already, good luck. I think calling Peterson just "more than an adequate replacement" for Taylor is a bit understated. If he stays healthy he'll be considered a top five back in the league by the end of next season; and I think he has the ability to be number two in a hurry, right behind L.T. This guy is special.
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On many of these picks already, good luck. I think calling Peterson just "more than an adequate replacement" for Taylor is a bit understated. If he stays healthy he'll be considered a top five back in the league by the end of next season; and I think he has the ability to be number two in a hurry, right behind L.T. This guy is special.
If some of the rookie cappers in NFL like me, cant find 1 game in these excellent writeups there is something wrong ! Well written and extremely informative, Buffet.
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If some of the rookie cappers in NFL like me, cant find 1 game in these excellent writeups there is something wrong ! Well written and extremely informative, Buffet.
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