Dalton is 25-13 ats as a road dog, line is inflated because bengals got blown out, look ahead was bills -3.5. Bills have played two 0-2 teams giants who have no pass rush or secondary and the jets who were shutting them out until only mosley got hurt, would have lost if he didin't get hurt. 0-2 teams and teams off a blow out usually show up to play the following week.
The good defense pitt showed in the first two weeks? 49ers are a team on the rise, steelers are on the decline.
Source: Steelers.com - Teresa Varley
Pittsburgh Steelers RB James Conner (knee) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Sept. 18.
I think you are buying into this being the same 4-12 49'ers from last season, they are not.
Offense
total yards per game = 7th
passing = 19th
rushing = 4th
points = 3rd
Defense
total yards per game = 8th
passing = 15th
rushing = 7th
points = 8th
sacks = 7th
takeaways = 1st (tied)
turnover diff = 7th (tied)
That's a lot of top 10 in stats, far from the cellar dwellers they were last year. Meanwhile I am sure if you look closely at the Steelers, no matter how much they can't afford to go 0-3, they just do not have the talent to support that statement.
I think you are missing the point, what is Dalton's record when AJ Green does not get a catch or is not in the lineup?
The Bills are responsible for half of those losses to those 0-2 teams so you cannot just state their record like it lends any weight to your argument.
I am getting an ass line on this game, but whatever, I think DET can win outright:
DET +6 @ PHI
DeSean Jackson is highly unlikely to play and Alshon Jeffery is leaning more towards not playing than playing. That will leave Algoholor to carry the load, unfortunately for his sake and the Eagles too, Detroit has an elite corner in Darius Slay which is known to shadow an opponent's WR1 no matter where he starts on the field. That leaves Ertz and their rushing attack as Wentz's only legitimate outlets. Meanwhile Detroit is no slouch ranked 8th in total offensive yards, and 6th in passing yards.
Through the first 2 weeks of the 2019 season, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed multiple 300+ yard passers, multiple 3-touchdown passers, and 3 100+ yard receivers. Philadelphia had hoped that a healthy secondary in 2019 would provide a solution to the coverage issues that arose late in 2018 following a slew of injuries, that has not been the case. Philadelphia ranks 31st in passing yards allowed, 29th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 25th in net-yards-per-attempt allowed. The Eagles' pass rush has done the secondary no favors to start the season. Aside from Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham, no other member of the Eagles front-four (or linebacking corps) has been able to generate pressure at a respectable rate to start the season. What had previously been a strength of Philadelphia's defense, depth on the defensive line, has quickly transformed into a weakness. In week one, the Eagles lost defensive tackle Malik Jackson for the season to a foot injury. Then, in week two, Jackson's replacement Tim Jernigan was taken back to the locker room on a cart, and he will miss about a month due to a foot injury of his own. Philadelphia's pass defense has been woefully disappointing through two games, and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will have his work cut out for him attempting to solve these issues ahead of a week three clash with the Detroit Lions.
The Detroit Lions' opened the season with two polar opposite opponents. In week one, the Arizona Cardinals attempted to rely upon an up-tempo offense to maximize their offense's chance of scoring. In week two, the Los Angeles Chargers slowed down the pace to mask notable absences on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. In turn, Detroit's offensive production through two games has been somewhat erratic. In week one, Matthew Stafford threw the ball 45 times, primarily to Kenny Golladay (9 targets,) Danny Amendola (13 targets,) and T.J. Hockenson (9 targets.) In week two, Stafford attempted just 30 passes. Kenny Golladay stood out as Stafford's favorite target in week two, commanding 10 targets, while both Amendola and Hockenson tailed off with only 1 and 3 targets, respectively. Golladay is the team's clear-cut number-one wide receiver, which should bode well for Stafford's efficiency. Golladay has long been considered one of the best young talents at the wide receiver position, and a more substantial and more consistent role in the offense is well-deserved. Detroit's offensive line struggled in week one against the Arizona Cardinals, as Stafford was under pressure more than any other quarterback in the league. These struggles carried over to week two when the Chargers disrupted the pocket on 9 of Stafford's 32 dropbacks on the day. The Lions need to shore up the trenches before expecting a consistently-dangerous passing attack, and week three at Philadelphia poses a tough matchup up front. Fortunately, the Eagles' secondary is far from elite.
A small bet on CAR @ ARI ML (-150) not the best line, half unit bet, who knows, maybe Cam's backup is an upgrade, will give Cardinals their first win of the season at home who have admirably tied Lions in week 1 and stayed within a TD of the red hot Ravens in week 2.
ARI passing matchup vs. CAR passing defense
Through two games, it’s safe to say Kyler Murray is taking to coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid attack. Even with some notable rookie struggles, Murray has topped 300 yards in back-to-back games, and he nearly led a massive upset in Baltimore with his arm. He’s still a fundamental mess in many ways but boasts the instinct and arm strength to spin even ill-advised throws into solid gains. His connection with Larry Fitzgerald, while hit-or-miss last week (5 of 11 targets), is a strong one. Murray is looking for Fitzgerald all over the field, even deep, where the ageless wonder has produced plays of 41, 45, and 54 yards. Christian Kirk got in on the fun last week, posting 114 yards of his own, including a few impressive downfield catches. No one else has made much impact, though, with journeyman Damiere Byrd (87 yards on 10 receptions) taking up almost all of the No. 3 snaps. Running back David Johnson typically fills that role in the pecking order but surprisingly drew just a single target Sunday. As a result, there are only two receivers confidently in play for fantasy success from week to week. Still, on the whole, this is an exciting, fast-paced offense that’s delivering plenty of volume and decent efficiency. With opportunity, weaponry, and game flow often on his side, Murray looks like a weekly, matchup-proof stab at 300 yards.
The Panthers pass defense remains a solid if inconsistent unit. But their arrow is pointing up, thanks to a few key developments from last season’s debacle. In James Bradberry and Donte Jackson, they boast a pair of talented cover men who have opened the year exceeding expectations. They locked down the Rams in Week 1, then held Mike Evans to just 61 yards on 8 targets. It helps that they’re backed by the team’s best free safety in years, new addition Tre Boston, who provides great support downfield. There’s still some vulnerability inside, and Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk should see enough volume and open space to produce. Last week, Jackson was beaten badly for a touchdown by Chris Godwin on a sharp cut to the inside. But on the whole, this is a difficult group to pile up big plays against. With the cornerbacks so strong in downfield coverage - and boasting the ability to move on the ball - opposing deep threats simply don’t project well.
TEN ML (-125) 
2019 NFL thru W2 | 14-9 | 60.9%
DT is out for the Jets, Jets have better D than Miami, NEP put up 43 against Miami, O/U is 43.5, I think the score may end up something like 30-9 Pats win, taking the under
NYJ @ NEP u43.5
Jet's haven't scored a TD at NE in a long time, so I think I am being generous giving them 3 FG's for this game.
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