2019 NFL thru W2 | 14-8 | 63.6%
TEN vs. JAX past 2 years, TEN 4-0 SU & ATS
No Foles for Jax, seems too easy? Titans looked stronger last week as the game went on scoring 3, 9, 10, 21 points in each of the 4 quarters, Jax scored 13 points in garbage time in Q4 last week and still lost by 2 TD's, two teams going in opposite directions.
First bet of W3, more to follow:
TEN ML (-125)
MIA @ DAL -21
It's only week 3 and Miami is already selling its key chess pieces looking towards next year's draft. Dallas offense has been on fire the past two weeks putting up 470 and 474 total yards against better defenses; Miami won't have a solution to this. The fact this is in Dallas, just makes this pick that much easier, poor fish.
I am waiting for more lines to come out from my book regarding the Patriots hosting the Jets this week, will look very closely at the NEP TT line, it should be about 33.5 since the line is -23 and the O/U is 44 and will look to take the OVER assuming the NEP TT comes out at around 33.5 seems like a safer pick than having to cover the 23 point spread, given Jets could put up a FG or TD in garbage time and NEP would prefer to run out the clock to secure the victory (and keep their Defense propped up 3 weeks in a row). They scored 33 against PIT and 43 vs. fish, I think they can put up +33 against the Jets.
Do you think LAR -3 EV is still value? I personally do, because I rate LAR way above CLE, but I'm curious about your opinion.
Go for it
No concern that Andy Dalton is 4-1 against the Bills?
I'm a die hard Bills fan and I'm concerned.
Believe it's too many points but good luck to you. 
AJ Green is out, how did AJ Green do in that 1 Bills win you cite? I'll tell you, he had 1 target, 0 receptions, what was impact in the 4 wins?
10-8-17 AJ Green 189-1-77 Long and BUF was 3-2
Dalton 22/36 328 yards 1TD 2INT
11-20-16 AJ Green 1 target and BUF was 5-5, BUF won 16-12
Dalton was 24/32 207 yards, 1TD, 2INT
10-18-15 AJ Green 36-0-12 Long. Bengals were 6-0 and Bills 3-3
Dalton 22/33 243 yards 3 TD
10-13-13 AJ Green 103-1-54 Long. Bengals were 4-2 and Bills 2-4
Dalton 26/40 337 yards 3TD, 1INT
10/2/11 AJ Green 118-0-58 Long.
Dalton 18/36 298 yards 1TD, 2INT
It's not about Andy Dalton, it's about AJ Green.
Bills are 2-0 (much different than what the Bengals faced in those 5 other matches).
Opposing QB Lines in those two games?
28/41 for 175 yards 1TD 0INT
26/45 for 250 yards 1TD 2INT
Bills 6th in passing yards allowed per game and 10th in rushing yards per game; the Bengals? 16th and 30th respectively
Also Bills are 9th in rushing yards per game (139.5) and Bengals are dead last in the league with 29.5 yards/game
Bengals have been sacked 9 times so far, BUF already has 5 sacks on the year.
This isn't the same Bills, nor is it the same Bengals who start the season 0-2.
If Bengals have a chance it will be in the air, but as I said BUF are no pushovers, 6th in the league in yards given up in the air per game.
Love it and the Rams as well. Let's go!
I am betting on Vegas using biased lines assuming the public will think of SF and Bills as historically bad teams and not really give them the credit they deserve for changing their team around.
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