NFL WEEK 5 ................................2024

season --- 7-4 ATS, won 2.05 units

Other system --- 4-2 ATS

Browns +3.5 over Wash --- .55 units to win .5 units

@theclaw

 Keep rolling 

I was thinking Washington is due for some regression, soon if not now. It's been 10 years since they have opened a season 3-1.

@theclaw

Finally CLV looks like a solid play.

Jayden Daniels has been SO hot that queries return virtually nothing.  For example, querying slightly below his last 3 completion percentages returns NO other previous games.

p:CP > 80 and pp:CP > 80 and ppp:CP > 78 yields NO query results except the WAS-ARZ game.  NO other QB in this database has ever been this hot.

CLV's passing DEF has reversed last year's stark differences.  This year it has been better in the two road games.  Of course WAS's passing OFF is much better than JAX's and LV's.

Good luck Claw.  

@theclaw

BOL Claw

@theclaw

 Good luck bro. Always must read post. Thank you 

I wonder if Deshaun Watson participated in any of P Diddys freakoffs

QB is on fire, best completion % ever is what I saw online.

Thank you...............

Ha, good one BUFFER.

Yes I did see that online, best ever completion % after this many games.

Crazy, Something like the 1st time since the 40's both teams got points on every possession was the Monday night game.

Wash doesn't  really fit any regression indicators but as a mediocre team they do. I think they are only going to be at best very mediocre. 

Hence why I am only going half a unit.

Mediocre  teams rarely could meet the level of extreme play needed for my regression  indicators.

For one, their defense  is just as bad as the offense has been good. The offense is not very likely to sustain this great play, the defense likely will sustain this poor play.

Dolphins +1.5 (-120) over Pats --- 1.2 units

Dolphins being  a BF play on team, Pats are close to being a play on team but not there yet the way I do it.

The perfect senerio would be for Dolphins to win by 10 or better  that'd  make the Pats look really bad and be a great spot to take them next week as a BF play on team.

only if Tua is playing b/c the Dolphins really do suck without him 

Tough game to cap bol on the game 

It's  regression, that's  where magic happens buffer .......................

Some trends I saw online I thought were interesting......

Dogs of over 6 pts are 65% ATS past 20 years

Team plays 3 home games then goes on the road, 45% ATS. 15-32 past 5  years.

After playing the Bills since Allen , teams are 33-53 SU. Teams after playing the 9ers are worse.

Won 4 straight games by 7 pts or less 16-27 ATS 37%

IF fav by 3 or more 32% ATS .......fade KC

@theclaw

The query works for "won 4+ straight games by 7 points or less."  The query:

streak > 3.5 and p:margin < 7.5 and pp:margin < 7.5 and ppp:margin < 7.5 and pppp:margin < 7.5

ATS:  16-27-0 (-1.4, 37.2%)  I personally would not fade KC on just this query alone.  An average ATS margin of only -1.4 points provides little confidence and little margin for error.

I am not a fundamental handicapper, but I did uncover these nuggets which might put me on NO:

There has been a lot of chatter about how good KC's DEF is this year and that it compensates for a weaker-than-usual OFF.  Comparing the passing DEF stats from NFL.com, sorting the team passing DEF stats by rating puts NO #1 at 68.0 and KC #21 at 94.2.  That is a huge gap.

Mahomes is missing some weapons this year and it shows.  Checking out Mahomes at Pro Football Reference, I was surprised to see that he is the all-time career leader at PY/game with a whopping 293.3!  He is averaging just 226.0 this season with 6 TDs and 5 INTs.

Good luck everybody.

OTOH, Jeff Sagarin has KC ranked #1 and NO #20.  His ratings say that KC has faced a tougher Strength of Schedule:  #11 vs. #25.

He certainly knows more about football than I do.  A link to his ratings page which currently features a powerful quote from Colin Powell:

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

I wonder if TheClaw thinks NO might be due for some negative regression on their stellar passing DEF which has allowed just 1 TD while grabbing 6 INTs, but NO has still lost its last two games.

I don't do offense or defensive regression, I may talk about it but only when it applies along with team regression. I'm  sure you could but I haven't researched  that out to know what to look for. NO is off 2 SU & ATS losses I'd lean more to them ATS this week. 

And remember  they were one of my 3 biggest performers week 1. I think they bounce back VS KC.