Getting these 2 small plays in early with these lines where they are.
Lions off a very big division game win and with Packers on deck the following week nice spot to come out flat as a pancake. And off a Bator 3 of 4 fade with a cover and now a power rating BF fade.
And just off back to back over 40 pt games then a cover in a spot historically teams have come out flat. Great spot to fade Lions.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Saints +7.5 over Chargers --- .55 units
Titans +11.5 over Lions --- .55 units
Getting these 2 small plays in early with these lines where they are.
Lions off a very big division game win and with Packers on deck the following week nice spot to come out flat as a pancake. And off a Bator 3 of 4 fade with a cover and now a power rating BF fade.
And just off back to back over 40 pt games then a cover in a spot historically teams have come out flat. Great spot to fade Lions.
BF has a fade on the Bears this week, off 2 big wins and with big offensive explosions. 36 and 35 pts. The previous best was 24pts, the Bears are not going to ave 35.5 pts per game, not sustainable.
Nor are the 2 big blowout wins sustainable.
Power Rating II...........
Wash 7.15
Bears 3.12
Is Jayden worth 6 or 7 pts ? Wash 4 pts better and at home getting 3.
Bears beat Titans but were outplayed according to PR II.
Lost by 6 to Teaxans but were outplayed by over 15 pts.
Lost to Colts by 5 but outplayed by over 15 pts again.
Bears did outplayed Rams by double digits, more then 6 pt win.
Outplayed Panthers by about exact score.
Outplayed Jags by about exact score.
Look who they outplayed, 3 of the worst teams at the time they played them. And those were the 3 games they happen to play on such a high level to enter the regression zone. Against poor weak opps.
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BF has a fade on the Bears this week, off 2 big wins and with big offensive explosions. 36 and 35 pts. The previous best was 24pts, the Bears are not going to ave 35.5 pts per game, not sustainable.
Nor are the 2 big blowout wins sustainable.
Power Rating II...........
Wash 7.15
Bears 3.12
Is Jayden worth 6 or 7 pts ? Wash 4 pts better and at home getting 3.
Bears beat Titans but were outplayed according to PR II.
Lost by 6 to Teaxans but were outplayed by over 15 pts.
Lost to Colts by 5 but outplayed by over 15 pts again.
Bears did outplayed Rams by double digits, more then 6 pt win.
Outplayed Panthers by about exact score.
Outplayed Jags by about exact score.
Look who they outplayed, 3 of the worst teams at the time they played them. And those were the 3 games they happen to play on such a high level to enter the regression zone. Against poor weak opps.
Wash however did not regress enough coming of the loss to Ravens, the closing line was +7 giving them a push but not a loss.
Then they won big 40-7, 2cd highest pts scored and largest margin of victory, coming off a not really good enough regression VS Ravens.
Marcus came off the bench and killed it. Don't think it will be the same now that he is expected to come in and produce, it's a different situation with different pressure.
I really like the fade on the Bears but this spot is not the best. The Bears are the more solid fade but I think I'll pass and fade the Winner next week.
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Wash however did not regress enough coming of the loss to Ravens, the closing line was +7 giving them a push but not a loss.
Then they won big 40-7, 2cd highest pts scored and largest margin of victory, coming off a not really good enough regression VS Ravens.
Marcus came off the bench and killed it. Don't think it will be the same now that he is expected to come in and produce, it's a different situation with different pressure.
I really like the fade on the Bears but this spot is not the best. The Bears are the more solid fade but I think I'll pass and fade the Winner next week.
Other system .........6-4 ATS Rams +3(-120) over Vikes Could of had +3.5 but missed posting it
Other system ..........
Ravens -8.5 over Browns
With 2 plays this week we are assured of a non-losing week after Rams won Thursday night.
1 losing week thus far for this system , hopefully we go 2-0. I do see sharps liking the Browns but this system does beat the sharps but likely not as consistently as the system does overall.
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Other system .........6-4 ATS Rams +3(-120) over Vikes Could of had +3.5 but missed posting it
Other system ..........
Ravens -8.5 over Browns
With 2 plays this week we are assured of a non-losing week after Rams won Thursday night.
1 losing week thus far for this system , hopefully we go 2-0. I do see sharps liking the Browns but this system does beat the sharps but likely not as consistently as the system does overall.
Power Rating II.......................after 7 weeks
This PR is more about balance between run/pass. Gives extra credit for good strong run game, better defense and teams don't turn the ball over on offense.
Great passing teams without good balance won't do well so we judge them better with PR I. KC comes to mind.
1.Ravens 14.8
2. Lions 11.15
3. Packers 10.82
4. Vikes 10.14
5. Bills 9.88
6. Steelers 9.6
7. 9ers 8.88
8. Wash 7.15
9. Texans 3.19
10. Bears 3.12
11. KC .43
These are the only teams I ran the numbers for.
Ravens do consistently well in PR II, no real surprise there and with Henry they continue to shine in the Run game.
A team like KC does not, with Mahomes or the Pats with Brady. PR II won't be a good method to judge them. Possibly the Texans could be put in this group as well but haven't look this deep into things this early in season.
Crazy, Lions, Pack and Vikes all in the same division rank so high.
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Power Rating II.......................after 7 weeks
This PR is more about balance between run/pass. Gives extra credit for good strong run game, better defense and teams don't turn the ball over on offense.
Great passing teams without good balance won't do well so we judge them better with PR I. KC comes to mind.
1.Ravens 14.8
2. Lions 11.15
3. Packers 10.82
4. Vikes 10.14
5. Bills 9.88
6. Steelers 9.6
7. 9ers 8.88
8. Wash 7.15
9. Texans 3.19
10. Bears 3.12
11. KC .43
These are the only teams I ran the numbers for.
Ravens do consistently well in PR II, no real surprise there and with Henry they continue to shine in the Run game.
A team like KC does not, with Mahomes or the Pats with Brady. PR II won't be a good method to judge them. Possibly the Texans could be put in this group as well but haven't look this deep into things this early in season.
Crazy, Lions, Pack and Vikes all in the same division rank so high.
Both the Texans defense and Jordan Love regressed last week in completion %.
Love with over 71% completions and Stroud with just over 47%, big regression for both is what I kind of expected could happen, little surprised it was this big though.
Texans fall in just 1 game by 5% down to 10% margin which is still excellent though.
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Both the Texans defense and Jordan Love regressed last week in completion %.
Love with over 71% completions and Stroud with just over 47%, big regression for both is what I kind of expected could happen, little surprised it was this big though.
Texans fall in just 1 game by 5% down to 10% margin which is still excellent though.
The interesting team to me is the Bills. They have been very good in pts per plays method all season. Even after being a Bator method fade and getting destroyed 35-10 then losing by 3 they did regress back but still remained amoung the leaders.
But they have been outgoing in total yards which is not a good indication of a SB team.
They do have a good ave per play and a very good ave per pass attempt margin at 1.6.
The do win penalties by good amounts, 13 and penalties yards by 118 yds.
Not very good on 3rd down conversations but excellent in the red zone with a huge over 20% margin over opps.
The big difference is they are winning TO battle by 10, 12 takeaways to only 2TOs themselves with Allen having 0 INTs.
Next week I'll have the mid-season total yards margins for the top teams.
Remember SB winners almost always outgain opps by more total yards in the 2cd half of the season.
So this puts the Bills in a spot they could have the best difference between 1st half and 2cd half of the season since it won't be hard to beat being outgain in yards.
As long as they can end the season with a decent enough margin.
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The interesting team to me is the Bills. They have been very good in pts per plays method all season. Even after being a Bator method fade and getting destroyed 35-10 then losing by 3 they did regress back but still remained amoung the leaders.
But they have been outgoing in total yards which is not a good indication of a SB team.
They do have a good ave per play and a very good ave per pass attempt margin at 1.6.
The do win penalties by good amounts, 13 and penalties yards by 118 yds.
Not very good on 3rd down conversations but excellent in the red zone with a huge over 20% margin over opps.
The big difference is they are winning TO battle by 10, 12 takeaways to only 2TOs themselves with Allen having 0 INTs.
Next week I'll have the mid-season total yards margins for the top teams.
Remember SB winners almost always outgain opps by more total yards in the 2cd half of the season.
So this puts the Bills in a spot they could have the best difference between 1st half and 2cd half of the season since it won't be hard to beat being outgain in yards.
As long as they can end the season with a decent enough margin.
Based on what the Bills are doing very well to win games, winning the TO battle, excellent in the redzone, most likely not sustainable.
When they start losing the TOs, they way good teams make up for this is outgaing opps in total yds which is almost a given the Bills will be faced with doing this.
they haven't needed to up till now.
To look at Packers last week losing TO battle by 3-0. To Texans , To win such a game is rare in history, Packers won total yds by 80 yds which really is not enough to over-come losing TO 3-0. But they did.
Really you'd need about 140yds minimum or more depending on situations. I mean Pack throwing a hailmary at end of half or game is a meaningless INT if it happens in a situation like this. Many different situations can occur.
I will be keeping an eye on the Bills 2cd half to see how this goes for them.
So if you guys see me bring this up it will be based on the info I posted here to better understand what I am talking about.
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Based on what the Bills are doing very well to win games, winning the TO battle, excellent in the redzone, most likely not sustainable.
When they start losing the TOs, they way good teams make up for this is outgaing opps in total yds which is almost a given the Bills will be faced with doing this.
they haven't needed to up till now.
To look at Packers last week losing TO battle by 3-0. To Texans , To win such a game is rare in history, Packers won total yds by 80 yds which really is not enough to over-come losing TO 3-0. But they did.
Really you'd need about 140yds minimum or more depending on situations. I mean Pack throwing a hailmary at end of half or game is a meaningless INT if it happens in a situation like this. Many different situations can occur.
I will be keeping an eye on the Bills 2cd half to see how this goes for them.
So if you guys see me bring this up it will be based on the info I posted here to better understand what I am talking about.
One reason for Bills being outgained is their defense getting turnovers which have helped them with getting short fields. In Buffalos Miami blowout win, bills were outgained by 104y.
Plus vs Miami and Jacksonville, they basically didn’t need to play the final 20 minutes+ of either game due to blowout wins.
Buffalo had struggled on 3rd down, no question. It is a semi issue. But some of it is on purpose due to their conviction on going for it on 4th down. Buffalo is 100% on 4th down conversions so far (7/7).
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@theclaw
One reason for Bills being outgained is their defense getting turnovers which have helped them with getting short fields. In Buffalos Miami blowout win, bills were outgained by 104y.
Plus vs Miami and Jacksonville, they basically didn’t need to play the final 20 minutes+ of either game due to blowout wins.
Buffalo had struggled on 3rd down, no question. It is a semi issue. But some of it is on purpose due to their conviction on going for it on 4th down. Buffalo is 100% on 4th down conversions so far (7/7).
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