NFL WEEK 8 .........................2024

Good stuff ...........

Exactly, it's  kind of the nature of the beast.

Once they start losing the TO battle then they'll  need to gain all those yards back they lost due to the TO.

I heard guys online talking Bills defense is getting  healthier

Some trends I found interesting from online.

The coach with the best record on extended rest since past 20 or so......... ..

Believe it or not McCarthy of those Cowboys. Crazy 

Kirk Cousins off a loss, 40-26, I assume SU, they didn't say , 5th best since 2003

Burrow 63% ATS in his career.

70% ATS VS teams above .500

An astounding 77.6% ATS VS teams off a ATS win, 22-6-1 ATS

Here is a nice regression  trend .......

Teams won 4 straight and scored 30 pts or more in those 4 straight wins --- are 43% the next game.

Applies to Ravens and Lions this week.

I have a fade on Lions but my other system has a play on Ravens.

Sharps loving the Browns this week.

43% is not an overly high % so maybe the trend goes 1-1 and MY methods go 2-0 but they could also go 0-2 .

I look up Ravens and Lions and the info was not correct.

Ravens fit the trend but not Lions. Lions won 4 straight but only scored 30 or better in 3 games not all 4.

I look up and I see a Browns team extremely hungry to win, extremely wounded for 2 months, facing a division rival they've beaten on the road many times and is riding confidence with a win streak plus people like you valuing them as the best team in the league... oh and then, their biggest problem by far was an idiot owner who insisted on playing the 2nd worst QB in the league with a horrible PPY number but now he's out for the season...

so none of this fit's all your "systems" bro, but you couldn't get me to take the Ravens today laying 9 today if it was to save you from drowning...my point being, there's no analytics for human emotions and it doesn't matter in all games but when it does, get the freaking hell out of the way...

BOL with your plays(btw, what's the season long record?)

I agree with alot of what u are saying. Not the best spot to back the Ravens..........

watson was historically a very bad QB this season, one of the worst ever.

But when any of my methods back A team I go with them, I have a long history of trying to find spots fading them , only to not do so well.

I am not taking action on this method, just posting the methods plays.

I almost missed this BF play on team ..........

Panthers +11 over Broncos --- 1.1 units

Panthers off 2 big losses past 3 games and off back to back games giving up the 2cd & 3rd most pts they have given up all year.

And With Broncos off a blowout win themselves and the line getting Jack way up from the look ahead line 

Great spot to back the Panthers here.

Other pending plays........

Saints +7.5 over Chargers --- .55 units to win .5 units

Titans +11.5 over Lions --- .55 units to win .5 units

Line has moved to 13 in spots. 

I did get the best of Saints line which has moved to +7.

thanks for all u do 

If taking a survivor play I take the Lions

I never like taking a team when I am on the dog as this suggest a possible close game where the dog could get lucky and win SU.

If it turns out a close game Li9ns should pull it out in the end, this does happen quite a bit but I don't like it but feel it's the best play.

@theclaw

 Never had a chance, this wasn't ever, ever close to the Ravens covering...

to your point about going against your systems and failing, how many times was this? If less than 50 I believe there's too much randomness to call that a trend..And I said not to do this in all your plays,just when there's multiple intangibles like this game...or ones with huge effects like replacing the worst player in the league at the most important position...see all your stats have to be further quantified...like replacing Tua was a whole different than replacing Watson...it's humans playing the games...Here's a guy who mixes in current intangibles with data..maybe he can help you do even better..@vanzack(although he's having his worst year in many)

GL rest of the way!

.......... I agree with alot of what you say.

System picked the Ravens I've user for 2 decades with very good results. If I could find a reliable way to pass on some plays I'd consider it. I knew this wasn't the best spot to back the Ravens but I have been wrong many times trying to go against this system, I've given up.

0-3, lost 2.2 units

Brutal week. Unfortunately the 2 plays I was planning on playing both won but I passed at the last minute.

I talked about both in last week's thread, fade on Bears being the more solid play, got lucky though but +3 was a push.

And 9ers over Boys with Boys poor redzone defense.

Some good plays coming this week including a new Bounce Factoer, I'll call Bounce Factor II