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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Not a single favorite lost outright yesterday. Not sure that has ever happened.

    «First Previous 12
    BarkahW1Suda95
    zeets1
    Hoyasaxa
    NeverMind
    Vegas11787
    ...
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    BarkahW1Suda95
    BarkahW1Suda95
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 6:51 PM ET #26

    how about all the 4th quarter scoring or overs huh..

    they account for 35% of all of their scorings. Which is higher than the 2nd quarter. Usually looking at the stats that I have gathered the past 5 seasons it goes 2nd 4th 3rd and 1st. 2nd being the highest of course averaging at 13.8539 points and the 4th qt at 12.8959. It makes sense that they're higher because usually after the 2 minute warning the teams accelerate their pace. 2nd quarter being higher because there is still much time so the loosing team still has a chance to win hence they're still competing and during the 4th some teams that are down big they might put their backup and throw the white towel early. But this year so far the 4th quarter is ahead of the 2nd quarter on average by 6% which is not normal. 6% is a huge jump. Averaging at 17.4194 to the 2nd's 14.3226. overs went 13-2-1 1st week and 14-1 so far this week. Also In game betting at the end of the 3rd quarter went 27-2-2 on the overs. The casinos and or the books usually set the lines at 10-14 points for 4th quarter. so they're way off here so far. but I'm sure they will adjust in the long run because they'll look on the cumulative averages. The no fans to minimal fans probably have something to do to it too for the 4th quarters.

    Reply

    how about all the 4th quarter scoring or overs huh..

    they account for 35% of all of their scorings. Which is higher than the 2nd quarter. Usually looking at the stats that I have gathered the past 5 seasons it goes 2nd 4th 3rd and 1st. 2nd being the highest of course averaging at 13.8539 points and the 4th qt at 12.8959. It makes sense that they're higher because usually after the 2 minute warning the teams accelerate their pace. 2nd quarter being higher because there is still much time so the loosing team still has a chance to win hence they're still competing and during the 4th some teams that are down big they might put their backup and throw the white towel early. But this year so far the 4th quarter is ahead of the 2nd quarter on average by 6% which is not normal. 6% is a huge jump. Averaging at 17.4194 to the 2nd's 14.3226. overs went 13-2-1 1st week and 14-1 so far this week. Also In game betting at the end of the 3rd quarter went 27-2-2 on the overs. The casinos and or the books usually set the lines at 10-14 points for 4th quarter. so they're way off here so far. but I'm sure they will adjust in the long run because they'll look on the cumulative averages. The no fans to minimal fans probably have something to do to it too for the 4th quarters.

     
    zeets1
    zeets1
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 7:08 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by vaas187:

    It was a pick...rams were never the dog even though they opened as one. Who actually thought philly would win.

     

    Rams were +2 before kick off on BetNow.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by vaas187:

    It was a pick...rams were never the dog even though they opened as one. Who actually thought philly would win.

     

    Rams were +2 before kick off on BetNow.

     
    Hoyasaxa
    Hoyasaxa
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 7:33 PM ET #28

    It always reverts to the mean, you know that...these sports books only have 2% winners..if anything, there'll be a huge dog week coming very soon and you should take advantage of that

    Reply

    It always reverts to the mean, you know that...these sports books only have 2% winners..if anything, there'll be a huge dog week coming very soon and you should take advantage of that

     
    NeverMind
    NeverMind
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 7:34 PM ET #29

    The play seems to be Saints ML. I could see this game playing similarly close like the KC/LAC game where the home dog leads in the 1st half, then gets beat late in the game by 1 score.

    If you're a 1H player I would take Raiders ML, but would be caution riding them in the 2nd half. I can see Brees securing the game late or a game winning FG/TD.

    Reply

    The play seems to be Saints ML. I could see this game playing similarly close like the KC/LAC game where the home dog leads in the 1st half, then gets beat late in the game by 1 score.

    If you're a 1H player I would take Raiders ML, but would be caution riding them in the 2nd half. I can see Brees securing the game late or a game winning FG/TD.

     
    Vegas11787
    Vegas11787
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 7:51 PM ET #30

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Great comments guys.  Really great analysis on the penalties - or lack of penalties. I am on the Raiders tonight also.  Hopefully it ends tonight.

    Good to see u again bro got BLIT best line in town yesterday at +6. Pumped for home opener 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Great comments guys.  Really great analysis on the penalties - or lack of penalties. I am on the Raiders tonight also.  Hopefully it ends tonight.

    Good to see u again bro got BLIT best line in town yesterday at +6. Pumped for home opener 

     
    Raidernator76
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 7:57 PM ET #31

    Thanks to Atlanta, that shouldn't have happened. Did anyone take cowboys 25-1 live bet when they were down big?

    Reply

    Thanks to Atlanta, that shouldn't have happened. Did anyone take cowboys 25-1 live bet when they were down big?

     
    Battalion74
    Battalion74
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 7:59 PM ET #32

    Vegas showed a lot of new bettors how easy it is to win money yesterday...  So easy, just take big favourites, add 3-4 more on your ticket and you get 8X your money.  Easy!

    Vegas handed out some samples yesterday.  Watch the money roll back to the books over the next couple of weeks..

    Reply

    Vegas showed a lot of new bettors how easy it is to win money yesterday...  So easy, just take big favourites, add 3-4 more on your ticket and you get 8X your money.  Easy!

    Vegas handed out some samples yesterday.  Watch the money roll back to the books over the next couple of weeks..

     
    Vanrush
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 8:00 PM ET #33

    I am almost positive it happened last year, but before that it has been a very long time.  I said this in another post but Vegas got killed yesterday with ML Parlays.

    Reply

    I am almost positive it happened last year, but before that it has been a very long time.  I said this in another post but Vegas got killed yesterday with ML Parlays.

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 8:54 PM ET #34

    Quote Originally Posted by BarkahW1Suda95:

    how about all the 4th quarter scoring or overs huh.. they account for 35% of all of their scorings. Which is higher than the 2nd quarter. Usually looking at the stats that I have gathered the past 5 seasons it goes 2nd 4th 3rd and 1st. 2nd being the highest of course averaging at 13.8539 points and the 4th qt at 12.8959. It makes sense that they're higher because usually after the 2 minute warning the teams accelerate their pace. 2nd quarter being higher because there is still much time so the loosing team still has a chance to win hence they're still competing and during the 4th some teams that are down big they might put their backup and throw the white towel early. But this year so far the 4th quarter is ahead of the 2nd quarter on average by 6% which is not normal. 6% is a huge jump. Averaging at 17.4194 to the 2nd's 14.3226. overs went 13-2-1 1st week and 14-1 so far this week. Also In game betting at the end of the 3rd quarter went 27-2-2 on the overs. The casinos and or the books usually set the lines at 10-14 points for 4th quarter. so they're way off here so far. but I'm sure they will adjust in the long run because they'll look on the cumulative averages. The no fans to minimal fans probably have something to do to it too for the 4th quarters.

    goodpost

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by BarkahW1Suda95:

    how about all the 4th quarter scoring or overs huh.. they account for 35% of all of their scorings. Which is higher than the 2nd quarter. Usually looking at the stats that I have gathered the past 5 seasons it goes 2nd 4th 3rd and 1st. 2nd being the highest of course averaging at 13.8539 points and the 4th qt at 12.8959. It makes sense that they're higher because usually after the 2 minute warning the teams accelerate their pace. 2nd quarter being higher because there is still much time so the loosing team still has a chance to win hence they're still competing and during the 4th some teams that are down big they might put their backup and throw the white towel early. But this year so far the 4th quarter is ahead of the 2nd quarter on average by 6% which is not normal. 6% is a huge jump. Averaging at 17.4194 to the 2nd's 14.3226. overs went 13-2-1 1st week and 14-1 so far this week. Also In game betting at the end of the 3rd quarter went 27-2-2 on the overs. The casinos and or the books usually set the lines at 10-14 points for 4th quarter. so they're way off here so far. but I'm sure they will adjust in the long run because they'll look on the cumulative averages. The no fans to minimal fans probably have something to do to it too for the 4th quarters.

    goodpost

     
    Ed-Collins
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 11:23 PM ET #35

    Van, You asked if this had ever happened before. According to an Excel database I have of NFL Scores and pointspreads, on Sunday, October 8, 2006, every favorite won outright. This was the only Sunday I could find where this happened, going back to 1992.
    Reply
    Van, You asked if this had ever happened before. According to an Excel database I have of NFL Scores and pointspreads, on Sunday, October 8, 2006, every favorite won outright. This was the only Sunday I could find where this happened, going back to 1992.
     
    BarkahW1Suda95
    BarkahW1Suda95
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2020 - 11:34 PM ET #36

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Quote Originally Posted by BarkahW1Suda95: how about all the 4th quarter scoring or overs huh.. they account for 35% of all of their scorings. Which is higher than the 2nd quarter. Usually looking at the stats that I have gathered the past 5 seasons it goes 2nd 4th 3rd and 1st. 2nd being the highest of course averaging at 13.8539 points and the 4th qt at 12.8959. It makes sense that they're higher because usually after the 2 minute warning the teams accelerate their pace. 2nd quarter being higher because there is still much time so the loosing team still has a chance to win hence they're still competing and during the 4th some teams that are down big they might put their backup and throw the white towel early. But this year so far the 4th quarter is ahead of the 2nd quarter on average by 6% which is not normal. 6% is a huge jump. Averaging at 17.4194 to the 2nd's 14.3226. overs went 13-2-1 1st week and 14-1 so far this week. Also In game betting at the end of the 3rd quarter went 27-2-2 on the overs. The casinos and or the books usually set the lines at 10-14 points for 4th quarter. so they're way off here so far. but I'm sure they will adjust in the long run because they'll look on the cumulative averages. The no fans to minimal fans probably have something to do to it too for the 4th quarters.

    Thank you sir!

    It happened again tonite. 17 points which is the mean. The odds was 13.5 for 4th and 55.5 for in game at the end of 3rd qt. Made it 15-1 this week for the 4th qt and 28-3-1 for the season so far. 28-2 for the ingame betting at the end of 3rd qt. Let's see how many weeks this will hold for.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Quote Originally Posted by BarkahW1Suda95: how about all the 4th quarter scoring or overs huh.. they account for 35% of all of their scorings. Which is higher than the 2nd quarter. Usually looking at the stats that I have gathered the past 5 seasons it goes 2nd 4th 3rd and 1st. 2nd being the highest of course averaging at 13.8539 points and the 4th qt at 12.8959. It makes sense that they're higher because usually after the 2 minute warning the teams accelerate their pace. 2nd quarter being higher because there is still much time so the loosing team still has a chance to win hence they're still competing and during the 4th some teams that are down big they might put their backup and throw the white towel early. But this year so far the 4th quarter is ahead of the 2nd quarter on average by 6% which is not normal. 6% is a huge jump. Averaging at 17.4194 to the 2nd's 14.3226. overs went 13-2-1 1st week and 14-1 so far this week. Also In game betting at the end of the 3rd quarter went 27-2-2 on the overs. The casinos and or the books usually set the lines at 10-14 points for 4th quarter. so they're way off here so far. but I'm sure they will adjust in the long run because they'll look on the cumulative averages. The no fans to minimal fans probably have something to do to it too for the 4th quarters.

    Thank you sir!

    It happened again tonite. 17 points which is the mean. The odds was 13.5 for 4th and 55.5 for in game at the end of 3rd qt. Made it 15-1 this week for the 4th qt and 28-3-1 for the season so far. 28-2 for the ingame betting at the end of 3rd qt. Let's see how many weeks this will hold for.

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Sep. 22, 2020 - 7:08 AM ET #37

    Quote Originally Posted by BarkahW1Suda95:

    how about all the 4th quarter scoring or overs huh.. they account for 35% of all of their scorings. Which is higher than the 2nd quarter. Usually looking at the stats that I have gathered the past 5 seasons it goes 2nd 4th 3rd and 1st. 2nd being the highest of course averaging at 13.8539 points and the 4th qt at 12.8959. It makes sense that they're higher because usually after the 2 minute warning the teams accelerate their pace. 2nd quarter being higher because there is still much time so the loosing team still has a chance to win hence they're still competing and during the 4th some teams that are down big they might put their backup and throw the white towel early. But this year so far the 4th quarter is ahead of the 2nd quarter on average by 6% which is not normal. 6% is a huge jump. Averaging at 17.4194 to the 2nd's 14.3226. overs went 13-2-1 1st week and 14-1 so far this week. Also In game betting at the end of the 3rd quarter went 27-2-2 on the overs. The casinos and or the books usually set the lines at 10-14 points for 4th quarter. so they're way off here so far. but I'm sure they will adjust in the long run because they'll look on the cumulative averages. The no fans to minimal fans probably have something to do to it too for the 4th quarters.

    Interesting.  And great analysis.

    peace_5

     
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by BarkahW1Suda95:

    how about all the 4th quarter scoring or overs huh.. they account for 35% of all of their scorings. Which is higher than the 2nd quarter. Usually looking at the stats that I have gathered the past 5 seasons it goes 2nd 4th 3rd and 1st. 2nd being the highest of course averaging at 13.8539 points and the 4th qt at 12.8959. It makes sense that they're higher because usually after the 2 minute warning the teams accelerate their pace. 2nd quarter being higher because there is still much time so the loosing team still has a chance to win hence they're still competing and during the 4th some teams that are down big they might put their backup and throw the white towel early. But this year so far the 4th quarter is ahead of the 2nd quarter on average by 6% which is not normal. 6% is a huge jump. Averaging at 17.4194 to the 2nd's 14.3226. overs went 13-2-1 1st week and 14-1 so far this week. Also In game betting at the end of the 3rd quarter went 27-2-2 on the overs. The casinos and or the books usually set the lines at 10-14 points for 4th quarter. so they're way off here so far. but I'm sure they will adjust in the long run because they'll look on the cumulative averages. The no fans to minimal fans probably have something to do to it too for the 4th quarters.

    Interesting.  And great analysis.

    peace_5

     
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Sep. 22, 2020 - 7:09 AM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by Raidernator76:

    Thanks to Atlanta, that shouldn't have happened. Did anyone take cowboys 25-1 live bet when they were down big?

    As a matter of fact...  There was a story yesterday of someone laying 35k to win 1k at betMGM.  Brutal.

     
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Raidernator76:

    Thanks to Atlanta, that shouldn't have happened. Did anyone take cowboys 25-1 live bet when they were down big?

    As a matter of fact...  There was a story yesterday of someone laying 35k to win 1k at betMGM.  Brutal.

     
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Sep. 22, 2020 - 7:10 AM ET #39

    Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

    Van, You asked if this had ever happened before. According to an Excel database I have of NFL Scores and pointspreads, on Sunday, October 8, 2006, every favorite won outright. This was the only Sunday I could find where this happened, going back to 1992.

    Can always count on you for this kind of thing!

    Good to see you Ed.

    peace_5

     
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

    Van, You asked if this had ever happened before. According to an Excel database I have of NFL Scores and pointspreads, on Sunday, October 8, 2006, every favorite won outright. This was the only Sunday I could find where this happened, going back to 1992.

    Can always count on you for this kind of thing!

    Good to see you Ed.

    peace_5

     
     
    DoubleUp4Life
    DoubleUp4Life
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    Posted: Sep. 22, 2020 - 7:44 AM ET #40

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Refs aren't calling holding by offensive linemen anymore(barely ever). This is usually in passing situations, so backing the better QB is wise right now. And the better QB is usually favored. That thread by BB after week 1 about the situation is extraordinary, and I think many have dismissed it, some not. Just my 2 cents.

     

    Its embarrassing on all 22 the blatant no calls on massive holding ....My BILLS held for the better part of the 4th qtr vs the phins yesterday ...On a TD Dan William's tackles a Dolphins rusher by grabbing his Jersey and pulling it untucked ...Brutal ....This is not football 

    BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Refs aren't calling holding by offensive linemen anymore(barely ever). This is usually in passing situations, so backing the better QB is wise right now. And the better QB is usually favored. That thread by BB after week 1 about the situation is extraordinary, and I think many have dismissed it, some not. Just my 2 cents.

     

    Its embarrassing on all 22 the blatant no calls on massive holding ....My BILLS held for the better part of the 4th qtr vs the phins yesterday ...On a TD Dan William's tackles a Dolphins rusher by grabbing his Jersey and pulling it untucked ...Brutal ....This is not football 

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Sep. 22, 2020 - 7:59 AM ET #41

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Refs aren't calling holding by offensive linemen anymore(barely ever). This is usually in passing situations, so backing the better QB is wise right now. And the better QB is usually favored. That thread by BB after week 1 about the situation is extraordinary, and I think many have dismissed it, some not. Just my 2 cents.   Its embarrassing on all 22 the blatant no calls on massive holding ....My BILLS held for the better part of the 4th qtr vs the phins yesterday ...On a TD Dan William's tackles a Dolphins rusher by grabbing his Jersey and pulling it untucked ...Brutal ....This is not football

    The All 22 is an amazing thing, great tool.

    To the untrained eye, football is awesome right now, look at all the scoring!

    It's sad really if you think about the nba, defense has not been played like it used to, tic tac fouls called constantly, teams live and die by the 3.

    In MLB they juiced the ball a few years ago and no one cares. Guys with a .235 BA are heroes for hitting a HR for every 15 strikeouts. Scoring is up.

    This is the world of sports

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Refs aren't calling holding by offensive linemen anymore(barely ever). This is usually in passing situations, so backing the better QB is wise right now. And the better QB is usually favored. That thread by BB after week 1 about the situation is extraordinary, and I think many have dismissed it, some not. Just my 2 cents.   Its embarrassing on all 22 the blatant no calls on massive holding ....My BILLS held for the better part of the 4th qtr vs the phins yesterday ...On a TD Dan William's tackles a Dolphins rusher by grabbing his Jersey and pulling it untucked ...Brutal ....This is not football

    The All 22 is an amazing thing, great tool.

    To the untrained eye, football is awesome right now, look at all the scoring!

    It's sad really if you think about the nba, defense has not been played like it used to, tic tac fouls called constantly, teams live and die by the 3.

    In MLB they juiced the ball a few years ago and no one cares. Guys with a .235 BA are heroes for hitting a HR for every 15 strikeouts. Scoring is up.

    This is the world of sports

     
    kamphil
    kamphil
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    Posted: Sep. 22, 2020 - 9:41 AM ET #42

     Many favorites won su but lost ats.....even in the NBA, the Lakers pulled out a su win with the 3 at the buzzer by AD.

    Someone mentioned October 8, 2006.   The next week, favorites went 4-9 ats with 6 su losses.   

    Reply

     Many favorites won su but lost ats.....even in the NBA, the Lakers pulled out a su win with the 3 at the buzzer by AD.

    Someone mentioned October 8, 2006.   The next week, favorites went 4-9 ats with 6 su losses.   

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Sep. 25, 2020 - 2:55 PM ET #43

    Have to keep this thread at the toppeace_5

    Reply

    Have to keep this thread at the toppeace_5

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Sep. 25, 2020 - 3:13 PM ET #44

    Through 33 games played this year, our penalty tracker:

    Offensive holding: 39, each team averaging 1.29 holds per game.

    Defensive holding: 26, each team averaging .81 per game.

    Defensive pass interference: 50, each team averaging 1.56 per game.

     

    Offensive holding is way down. It's a 10 yard penalty. All though defensive holding is only a 5 yard penalty and that there are 13 less of these than offensive holding, it's an automatic first down.

    Now P.I. is a killer. Ball is placed at the spot of the foul and it's an automatic first down. The fact that there are 11 more PI's than your average "holding" is just ridiculous.

    Reply

    Through 33 games played this year, our penalty tracker:

    Offensive holding: 39, each team averaging 1.29 holds per game.

    Defensive holding: 26, each team averaging .81 per game.

    Defensive pass interference: 50, each team averaging 1.56 per game.

     

    Offensive holding is way down. It's a 10 yard penalty. All though defensive holding is only a 5 yard penalty and that there are 13 less of these than offensive holding, it's an automatic first down.

    Now P.I. is a killer. Ball is placed at the spot of the foul and it's an automatic first down. The fact that there are 11 more PI's than your average "holding" is just ridiculous.

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Sep. 25, 2020 - 3:20 PM ET #45

    Quote Originally Posted by kamphil:

    Many favorites won su but lost ats.....even in the NBA, the Lakers pulled out a su win with the 3 at the buzzer by AD. Someone mentioned October 8, 2006.   The next week, favorites went 4-9 ats with 6 su losses.

    Jacksonville starts this week 0-1 suats. That week you referenced there were only 13 games(6 on bye). We still have 15 games to go. 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by kamphil:

    Many favorites won su but lost ats.....even in the NBA, the Lakers pulled out a su win with the 3 at the buzzer by AD. Someone mentioned October 8, 2006.   The next week, favorites went 4-9 ats with 6 su losses.

    Jacksonville starts this week 0-1 suats. That week you referenced there were only 13 games(6 on bye). We still have 15 games to go. 

     
    begginerboy
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Sep. 25, 2020 - 3:21 PM ET #46

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Through 33 games played this year, our penalty tracker: Offensive holding: 39, each team averaging 1.29 holds per game. Defensive holding: 26, each team averaging .81 per game. Defensive pass interference: 50, each team averaging 1.56 per game.   Offensive holding is way down. It's a 10 yard penalty. All though defensive holding is only a 5 yard penalty and that there are 13 less of these than offensive holding, it's an automatic first down. Now P.I. is a killer. Ball is placed at the spot of the foul and it's an automatic first down. The fact that there are 11 more PI's than your average "holding" is just ridiculous.

    It really is. But both those trends help the offense! an_light

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Through 33 games played this year, our penalty tracker: Offensive holding: 39, each team averaging 1.29 holds per game. Defensive holding: 26, each team averaging .81 per game. Defensive pass interference: 50, each team averaging 1.56 per game.   Offensive holding is way down. It's a 10 yard penalty. All though defensive holding is only a 5 yard penalty and that there are 13 less of these than offensive holding, it's an automatic first down. Now P.I. is a killer. Ball is placed at the spot of the foul and it's an automatic first down. The fact that there are 11 more PI's than your average "holding" is just ridiculous.

    It really is. But both those trends help the offense! an_light

     
     
    Bigdoubleplay
    Bigdoubleplay
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    Posted: Sep. 27, 2020 - 7:48 PM ET #47

    Good threadan_popcorn

    Reply

    Good threadan_popcorn

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