Eddys2121: Loving the system, but not feeling MIAMI/SF (over) in this matchup. SF will be playing some serious D and Miami will be running the ball up the 9ers throats.
Gore should be out or at least on limited time, so Hill is going to have to pass the ball alot more than they should and that will not be good for the 9ers.
Only since Shaun Hill has come into the lineup have the 9ers started to feed Gore the rock again. The games before Gore was getting the ball so much, the 9ers were scoring less than 20 points. Just saying: BEWARE of going OVER on this 9er / Fins matchup!
Liking the UNDER on this one this week...
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Eddys2121: Loving the system, but not feeling MIAMI/SF (over) in this matchup. SF will be playing some serious D and Miami will be running the ball up the 9ers throats.
Gore should be out or at least on limited time, so Hill is going to have to pass the ball alot more than they should and that will not be good for the 9ers.
Only since Shaun Hill has come into the lineup have the 9ers started to feed Gore the rock again. The games before Gore was getting the ball so much, the 9ers were scoring less than 20 points. Just saying: BEWARE of going OVER on this 9er / Fins matchup!
First thing that stands out to me is the line drop. Opened at 44 down to 41 on most books now, who knows by tomar. A reason for this is, Frank Gore has been downgraded to doubtful and at best limited play like norcal mentioned. No Frank Gore limits production on any team and takes an intricate part of SF's offense out of the game. Both these defenses are playing better as of late and i think im staying away from this one. I'd lean under. GL ALL
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SF/ Mia
First thing that stands out to me is the line drop. Opened at 44 down to 41 on most books now, who knows by tomar. A reason for this is, Frank Gore has been downgraded to doubtful and at best limited play like norcal mentioned. No Frank Gore limits production on any team and takes an intricate part of SF's offense out of the game. Both these defenses are playing better as of late and i think im staying away from this one. I'd lean under. GL ALL
Hey eddy, love that system. Just one question: What do you mean by weeks 5, 6 and 7? I mean how many weeks do you actually go back when doing the average?
Do you do it for 5, 6 AND 7 weeks back and do the average of those numbers? Do you only account for points scored or points allowed as well? Because say you have Team A with scores of: 35-3, 28-10, 24-7, 38-7 and 41-17 and then you have Team B: 31-14, 34-7, 27-14, 42-10 and 31-13. Clearly your system would lean Over and neglect the amazing defence these teams have.
I did the numbers for the past 5 weeks and here is what I have come up with:
Car/Den: 55 = +7 OVER 48
GB/Jax: 47.2 = +1 No play.
Was/Cin: 20 = -16 UNDER 36.5 *Cold weather may help this bet*
TB/Atl: 55.8 = +11 OVER 44.5
SF/Mia: 42.6 = +1 No play.
Sea/Stl: 26 = -16 UNDER 42
Buf/NYJ: 48 = +7 *Cold weather* No play. Although Favre plays well in the cold, 48 is too much.
Ten/Hou: 48 = +3 No play.
SD/KC: 41 = -4 No play.
Min/Ariz: 52 = +5.5 OVER 46.5 *Arizona games went Over 46.5 in all but 2 of their last 10: Games against St.Louis and Seattle*
NE/OAK: 40 = 0 No play.
NYG/DAL: 50 = +3 Small play on OV (just for fun).
Phi/Clev: 40 = 0 No play.
Ind/Det: 41 = -4 No play.
Was thinking of parlaying the three Overs and parlaying the three Overs with the Unders (3-gamer and 5-gamer).
What do you think?
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Hey eddy, love that system. Just one question: What do you mean by weeks 5, 6 and 7? I mean how many weeks do you actually go back when doing the average?
Do you do it for 5, 6 AND 7 weeks back and do the average of those numbers? Do you only account for points scored or points allowed as well? Because say you have Team A with scores of: 35-3, 28-10, 24-7, 38-7 and 41-17 and then you have Team B: 31-14, 34-7, 27-14, 42-10 and 31-13. Clearly your system would lean Over and neglect the amazing defence these teams have.
I did the numbers for the past 5 weeks and here is what I have come up with:
Car/Den: 55 = +7 OVER 48
GB/Jax: 47.2 = +1 No play.
Was/Cin: 20 = -16 UNDER 36.5 *Cold weather may help this bet*
TB/Atl: 55.8 = +11 OVER 44.5
SF/Mia: 42.6 = +1 No play.
Sea/Stl: 26 = -16 UNDER 42
Buf/NYJ: 48 = +7 *Cold weather* No play. Although Favre plays well in the cold, 48 is too much.
Ten/Hou: 48 = +3 No play.
SD/KC: 41 = -4 No play.
Min/Ariz: 52 = +5.5 OVER 46.5 *Arizona games went Over 46.5 in all but 2 of their last 10: Games against St.Louis and Seattle*
NE/OAK: 40 = 0 No play.
NYG/DAL: 50 = +3 Small play on OV (just for fun).
Phi/Clev: 40 = 0 No play.
Ind/Det: 41 = -4 No play.
Was thinking of parlaying the three Overs and parlaying the three Overs with the Unders (3-gamer and 5-gamer).
Minn / ARZ i'm staying far away from for one reason only, Tavaras Jackson. I think he gonna be the starter this week. That factor alone is making that a no play for me. But im gonna take a more indepth look at it tomor, ill let u kknow if anything changes.
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Quote Originally Posted by gilbert91016:
what do u guys think of Minnesota-Arizona
Minn / ARZ i'm staying far away from for one reason only, Tavaras Jackson. I think he gonna be the starter this week. That factor alone is making that a no play for me. But im gonna take a more indepth look at it tomor, ill let u kknow if anything changes.
I am very HAPPY to see my picks are exactly similar to someone after 3 hours of homework. I had one extra which is the Ten game to go over. This week look easy but not so; over/und is a good route to make big stacks of green in my opinion. Best Best of luck to us.
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I am very HAPPY to see my picks are exactly similar to someone after 3 hours of homework. I had one extra which is the Ten game to go over. This week look easy but not so; over/und is a good route to make big stacks of green in my opinion. Best Best of luck to us.
Not a big fan of parlays Huge, Tough to consistently win money on those. I play everything straight up. and occasionally a reverse here and there cause you tend to have some leadway there. Make sure you take a look at the other thread so u can understand how to put the finishing touches on your plays. GL this Weekend
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Not a big fan of parlays Huge, Tough to consistently win money on those. I play everything straight up. and occasionally a reverse here and there cause you tend to have some leadway there. Make sure you take a look at the other thread so u can understand how to put the finishing touches on your plays. GL this Weekend
We need to work on some addition here: GB Scored: 21,31,29,37,27 the last 5 games that total divided by 5 is 29. JAC scored 10,17,12,14,38 in the last 5 games, that total divided by 5 is16. 29+16= 45 the total set at 46.5: the play based on the system alone is : Under
In addtion, I dont see JAC scoring if the GB def shuts down the run and makes this team one dimensional. Its pretty obvious that gb doesn't have a great run def here. But if they can neutralize the Jones Drew, they should have no problem keeping JAC out of the endzone.That combined with GB's better than avg secondary and their ability to create turnovers should make this one pretty one sided. Im willing to bet that David Garrard could throw a ball into a pool with his feet wet. He's that bad. I just dont think JAC can score enough pts to make this one go over.
BOl on your play bro
Eddy I think you better check your own calculations on the Jac totals. I'm coming up with 18.2 when you divide 91 by 5, not 16. If I am correct that would then make 29 + 18 = 47 not 45, which would then make this a system play of over I'm not trying to be picky, just trying to help. Either way I think it is a no play for me.
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Quote Originally Posted by eddys2121:
Free to follow
We need to work on some addition here: GB Scored: 21,31,29,37,27 the last 5 games that total divided by 5 is 29. JAC scored 10,17,12,14,38 in the last 5 games, that total divided by 5 is16. 29+16= 45 the total set at 46.5: the play based on the system alone is : Under
In addtion, I dont see JAC scoring if the GB def shuts down the run and makes this team one dimensional. Its pretty obvious that gb doesn't have a great run def here. But if they can neutralize the Jones Drew, they should have no problem keeping JAC out of the endzone.That combined with GB's better than avg secondary and their ability to create turnovers should make this one pretty one sided. Im willing to bet that David Garrard could throw a ball into a pool with his feet wet. He's that bad. I just dont think JAC can score enough pts to make this one go over.
BOl on your play bro
Eddy I think you better check your own calculations on the Jac totals. I'm coming up with 18.2 when you divide 91 by 5, not 16. If I am correct that would then make 29 + 18 = 47 not 45, which would then make this a system play of over I'm not trying to be picky, just trying to help. Either way I think it is a no play for me.
Games that are 1 point or 2 above or below the total, shouldn't you stay away from them? I mean one FG, one long drive, one bad fumble and there goes 4-7 points.
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Games that are 1 point or 2 above or below the total, shouldn't you stay away from them? I mean one FG, one long drive, one bad fumble and there goes 4-7 points.
Btw 2121: You didn't answer my questions. Do you do the average of 5, 6 and 7 games or is it “OR” as in whichever the user prefers?
And 2. Do you only account for points scored? Because sometimes defense can be an angle too…
Team A: L 21-35, L 17-38, W 34-31, L 10-41, L 14-34
Team B: L 10-35, L 14-42, L 20-28, W 38-35, L 17-31
As you can see both teams are pretty sloppy on defense and can only win games on offense. You system would make the total score 39 even though none of their total remained close to 39 points. The game total would be set higher than 39 so does that mean you pick the Under big? These teams are allowing 35.8 and 34.2 points a game respectively. That’s 70! Likewise, your system could pick a game Over for LARGE for two good teams playing and averaging 60+ points together, but not allowing anything on defense.
I see the Arizona game to sail way over not only because your system says so but also because their only two games in the last 10 that finished under the posted total were against two teams that happen to be playing each other this week and that your system picks that game at way Under. If the QB issue was that big a deal, the line would have been driven down by sharps, even by a little.
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Btw 2121: You didn't answer my questions. Do you do the average of 5, 6 and 7 games or is it “OR” as in whichever the user prefers?
And 2. Do you only account for points scored? Because sometimes defense can be an angle too…
Team A: L 21-35, L 17-38, W 34-31, L 10-41, L 14-34
Team B: L 10-35, L 14-42, L 20-28, W 38-35, L 17-31
As you can see both teams are pretty sloppy on defense and can only win games on offense. You system would make the total score 39 even though none of their total remained close to 39 points. The game total would be set higher than 39 so does that mean you pick the Under big? These teams are allowing 35.8 and 34.2 points a game respectively. That’s 70! Likewise, your system could pick a game Over for LARGE for two good teams playing and averaging 60+ points together, but not allowing anything on defense.
I see the Arizona game to sail way over not only because your system says so but also because their only two games in the last 10 that finished under the posted total were against two teams that happen to be playing each other this week and that your system picks that game at way Under. If the QB issue was that big a deal, the line would have been driven down by sharps, even by a little.
Btw 2121: You didn't answer my questions. Do you do the average of 5, 6 and 7 games or is it “OR” as in whichever the user prefers?
And 2. Do you only account for points scored? Because sometimes defense can be an angle too…
Team A: L 21-35, L 17-38, W 34-31, L 10-41, L 14-34
Team B: L 10-35, L 14-42, L 20-28, W 38-35, L 17-31
As you can see both teams are pretty sloppy on defense and can only win games on offense. You system would make the total score 39 even though none of their total remained close to 39 points. The game total would be set higher than 39 so does that mean you pick the Under big? These teams are allowing 35.8 and 34.2 points a game respectively. That’s 70! Likewise, your system could pick a game Over for LARGE for two good teams playing and averaging 60+ points together, but not allowing anything on defense.
I see the Arizona game to sail way over not only because your system says so but also because their only two games in the last 10 that finished under the posted total were against two teams that happen to be playing each other this week and that your system picks that game at way Under. If the QB issue was that big a deal, the line would have been driven down by sharps, even by a little.
Huge,
to answer your question i take the last 5 games and do the avg. But dude like i said there are other things that go into the play, they system alone is just a tool.
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Quote Originally Posted by HugeBallz:
Btw 2121: You didn't answer my questions. Do you do the average of 5, 6 and 7 games or is it “OR” as in whichever the user prefers?
And 2. Do you only account for points scored? Because sometimes defense can be an angle too…
Team A: L 21-35, L 17-38, W 34-31, L 10-41, L 14-34
Team B: L 10-35, L 14-42, L 20-28, W 38-35, L 17-31
As you can see both teams are pretty sloppy on defense and can only win games on offense. You system would make the total score 39 even though none of their total remained close to 39 points. The game total would be set higher than 39 so does that mean you pick the Under big? These teams are allowing 35.8 and 34.2 points a game respectively. That’s 70! Likewise, your system could pick a game Over for LARGE for two good teams playing and averaging 60+ points together, but not allowing anything on defense.
I see the Arizona game to sail way over not only because your system says so but also because their only two games in the last 10 that finished under the posted total were against two teams that happen to be playing each other this week and that your system picks that game at way Under. If the QB issue was that big a deal, the line would have been driven down by sharps, even by a little.
Huge,
to answer your question i take the last 5 games and do the avg. But dude like i said there are other things that go into the play, they system alone is just a tool.
THEY ALL LOOK GOOD BRO, IM ASSUMING UR TAKING A 6 PT TEASE? BUT THEY DO CALL IT A TEASE FOR A REASON YA KNOW, I'D BE CAREFUL W/ THAT CINCI GAME, I MIGHT REPLACE THAT WITH INDY UNDER 50, BUT THATS JUST MY OPINION, GL TO YOU BRO
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THEY ALL LOOK GOOD BRO, IM ASSUMING UR TAKING A 6 PT TEASE? BUT THEY DO CALL IT A TEASE FOR A REASON YA KNOW, I'D BE CAREFUL W/ THAT CINCI GAME, I MIGHT REPLACE THAT WITH INDY UNDER 50, BUT THATS JUST MY OPINION, GL TO YOU BRO
I like the under in this one, as you can see the total has been driving down all week, which is usually a good indicator of an under play. The weather out there in KC isnt gonna be pretty, chance of rain and nasty conditions. The only thing holding me back right now is how bad KC's d is. Im still gonna go UNDER here, but it might not be a real heavy wager. GL ALL
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kC/ sd
I like the under in this one, as you can see the total has been driving down all week, which is usually a good indicator of an under play. The weather out there in KC isnt gonna be pretty, chance of rain and nasty conditions. The only thing holding me back right now is how bad KC's d is. Im still gonna go UNDER here, but it might not be a real heavy wager. GL ALL
Im leaning toward a no play in this one, the avg. on these scores are decieving given the current state of the teams. NYJ are not playing good football right now, they also have a grocery list of injuries to go along with it. BUF on the other hand, has been a big let down. from 4-0 to their current state at 5-8 is dispicable to say the least. Thier last two games they managed to put up a conbined 6 pts and managed to net 23 yards in the two games. They might be playing the worst football in the league right now. These teams are too inconsistant for me, Im going with a no play here.
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NYJ/BUF
Im leaning toward a no play in this one, the avg. on these scores are decieving given the current state of the teams. NYJ are not playing good football right now, they also have a grocery list of injuries to go along with it. BUF on the other hand, has been a big let down. from 4-0 to their current state at 5-8 is dispicable to say the least. Thier last two games they managed to put up a conbined 6 pts and managed to net 23 yards in the two games. They might be playing the worst football in the league right now. These teams are too inconsistant for me, Im going with a no play here.
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