Posted:
#1
Member for 5 years and I've never posted a pick? Better late than never.
Panthers @ Jets
I'm a big fan of Monty Andrews' weekly "NFL mismatches" article where this week he mentions the Greg Olsen return vs the Jets struggles vs tight ends. It's a nice angle and I'd like to add a couple more mismatches from this game.
Penalties mismatch: Panthers #1 in penalties given, Jets #30
Panthers are only giving up 4.5 penalties per game, lowest in the league. Jets are giving up 8.1 penalties per game, averaging 73.9 yards per game given up in penalties, both stats ranking 30th in the league.
3rd down conversions mismatch: Panthers #1 in 3rd down conversions
Panthers rank #1 in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage at 46.85%. In their last 3 games that number is up to 52.27% and in their last game a staggering 78.57%.
The Jets are allowing their opponents to convert on 3rd down 40.14% of the time, putting them in the bottom half of the table at #19.
Carolina Defensive DVOA vs Jets Offensive DVOA
Carolina ranked #6 in Defensive DVOA. Jets ranked #27 in Offensive DVOA.
Panthers D-Line vs Jets O-Line
Panthers pass rush ranks #4 in DVOA. Jets pass blocking ranks #31 in DVOA, allowing 32 total sacks, 3.2 per game average (#28 in league)and 10.3% adjusted sack rate (#31 in league). Jets allowed 6 sacks in their last game.
Power Success Rate
Panthers rank #2 in Power Success rate allowed - when opponents are in a 3rd or 4th and 2 or lower situation and run the ball, Panthers are allowing only a 39% success rate, second lowest in the league.
On the other side, when the Jets are in those 3rd/4th and 2 (or less) positions, they're only getting success 43% of the time, ranking #30 in the league.
Stuff Percentage Mismatch
Jets are getting stuffed on 27% of runs, putting them at #28 in the league. On the other side the Panthers are stuffing opponents on 25% of runs, good for #5 in the league.
First downs per game
This is a double whammy. Panthers rank 6th in First Downs Per game with 20.8, while the Jets allow 20.6 First Down Per Game, putting them in 24th.
The mismatch is bigger on the other side, the Jets are only managing 16.6 First Downs Per Game, ranking #30, while the Panthers are only allowing 15.7 per game, which is the second lowest rate in the league (#2).
I expect the Jets to have a very hard time in this game. McCown should see a lot of pressures and sacks with his O-Line being completed outmatched by Carolina's D-Line. The stuff percentages would indicate the Jets aren't going to have much fun when they try to run the ball either. Carolina are particularly stout in 3rd and short situations, where the Jets have ranked among the worst in the league.
Panthers should greatly outpace the Jets in First Downs, in no small part due to their offense ranked #1 in 3rd down conversions. Quite simply the Jets are outmatched on both sides of the ball here, most obviously when their offense are on the field. To add insult to injury, the Jets are likely to have a negative penalty margin and the Panthers get back their star tight end and will probably try to involve him early to shake off the cobwebs.
The Panthers (7-3) also sit sandwiched between the Saints on 8 wins and the Falcons on 6 wins. The Falcons are expected to win this week but the Saints are in the rare situation of being underdogs. This is a tight race in the NFC South and I expect to see a very motivated Panthers team hoping to draw level with the division leader with this win.
If you got the -4.5, good for you. I'm still happy to take the Panthers -5.5
0
......2 things a good capper knows...forget last week and don't believe in stats.......
Hot Forum Topics
