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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Patriots strength of schedule

    chaloots
    joeflaccid
    OStateBucks
    Achilles1629
    Bet_The_House
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    chaloots
    chaloots
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 12:05 PM ET #1

    Let me break it down for you guys, SOS doesn't mean shitt in the NFL. The  number with the highest % of games landed on is 3 points. Everyone in the NFL is good, worry about SOS in Coll football and Coll hoops not in the NFL.

    Everyone is talking about the Patriots weak schedule, how about you look at ATl's weak defense? Brady will pick that defense apart. The give up on average 10 more points a game than the Pat's defense not to mention Atl will be going up against the second best offense they faced all year led by the best QB and Coach in the NFL. GL to Atls backers but if I am going to lose, I will go down with the best QB, best Coach combo of all time. I will go with the experienced QB and Coach.

    This game will not come down to Julio Jones, it will come down to how well the Patriot's can contain Freeman and Coleman out of the backfield IMO, they will need to chip them both immediately like they did with Marshall Faulk in the past and make Ryan force the balls into tight windows to Jones.

    I don't see Atlanta getting too many defensive stops in this game. I had Atlanta in both home playoff games, big difference here not playing at home against 2 banged up teams.

    Like I said, I will roll with the G.O.A.T -3, I thought the line should have opened at 6.
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Let me break it down for you guys, SOS doesn't mean shitt in the NFL. The  number with the highest % of games landed on is 3 points. Everyone in the NFL is good, worry about SOS in Coll football and Coll hoops not in the NFL.

    Everyone is talking about the Patriots weak schedule, how about you look at ATl's weak defense? Brady will pick that defense apart. The give up on average 10 more points a game than the Pat's defense not to mention Atl will be going up against the second best offense they faced all year led by the best QB and Coach in the NFL. GL to Atls backers but if I am going to lose, I will go down with the best QB, best Coach combo of all time. I will go with the experienced QB and Coach.

    This game will not come down to Julio Jones, it will come down to how well the Patriot's can contain Freeman and Coleman out of the backfield IMO, they will need to chip them both immediately like they did with Marshall Faulk in the past and make Ryan force the balls into tight windows to Jones.

    I don't see Atlanta getting too many defensive stops in this game. I had Atlanta in both home playoff games, big difference here not playing at home against 2 banged up teams.

    Like I said, I will roll with the G.O.A.T -3, I thought the line should have opened at 6.
     
    joeflaccid
    joeflaccid
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 12:39 PM ET #2

    exactly you even said it yourself, why isn't the line -6. lol good luck sunday you're going to need it.
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    exactly you even said it yourself, why isn't the line -6. lol good luck sunday you're going to need it.
     
    OStateBucks
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 12:47 PM ET #3

    Favorites are 18-16-2 (52.9%) covering 3 point spread this season, and 22-13-1 straightup (63%). 

    In the past 5 years, favorites are 81-103-12 (44%) vs spread and 107-88-1 straightup (55%). 

    I always felt 3 points was Vegas saying, "eh, we don't know either."


    Source:
    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/results/?season-filter=2016
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    Favorites are 18-16-2 (52.9%) covering 3 point spread this season, and 22-13-1 straightup (63%). 

    In the past 5 years, favorites are 81-103-12 (44%) vs spread and 107-88-1 straightup (55%). 

    I always felt 3 points was Vegas saying, "eh, we don't know either."


    Source:
    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/results/?season-filter=2016
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 1:00 PM ET #4

    Interesting post. As I stated previously, it will indeed be the backs for Atlanta that will cause the most issues. You being a devout patriots fan should know though that they have problems with teams who have ballers at the running back position that can catch the pigskin. And to keep julio at check sunday, that takes a village big guy. Its funny because you, along with every other patriots backer makes it sound so easy to stop this offense of atlanta's. The "historical" defense of the patriots, right? You say atlanta hasn't faced an offense like the patriots? Well, we can say the same  thing about the patriots not facing an offense like Atlanta's. Does quinn not being in this game two years ago, seeing the schemes, the personnel, having the experience against hoodie, count for anything? If not, yikes. Sure it's different personnel but if you are gonna play the Hoodie card and how that's ultra important in this game even though the personnel is different in this superbowl, quinn being at the superbowl 3 of the past 4 years has to count for something.....

    The mindset of if you go down in flames you want your on Brady rather than the falcons is absurd. Really? Is that how you bet big a $$ games? Did you bet green bay then over atlanta a few weeks ago. If you didn't and took atlanta, you contradict yourself. Rodgers over ryan, right? It was engrained in peoples minds. Nope. Personally, I am looking at both sides of the coin for Sunday but once again, we come across a gambler who gives Matt ryan no credit; who gives atlanta no credit. Is atlanta supposed to line up and because its the patriots, just hand the trophy over? For most patriots backers, the NFC Pro Bowl team could line up against brady and hoodie and theyd still take the patriots. Ultimately, For every patriot ideology you have, I can come back with an Atlanta one bud. Looking at both sides though is the key. You already knew that though, huh? 

    Lastly, about the line. Do you think you are in on something with this line being so low? Is this your trump card? The secret nobody is supposed to know? Why do you think the books set the line the way they did? Think about that for a while before you scoff. This question along with many others has been on my mind all week. We will find out soon.....Enjoy the game 
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    Interesting post. As I stated previously, it will indeed be the backs for Atlanta that will cause the most issues. You being a devout patriots fan should know though that they have problems with teams who have ballers at the running back position that can catch the pigskin. And to keep julio at check sunday, that takes a village big guy. Its funny because you, along with every other patriots backer makes it sound so easy to stop this offense of atlanta's. The "historical" defense of the patriots, right? You say atlanta hasn't faced an offense like the patriots? Well, we can say the same  thing about the patriots not facing an offense like Atlanta's. Does quinn not being in this game two years ago, seeing the schemes, the personnel, having the experience against hoodie, count for anything? If not, yikes. Sure it's different personnel but if you are gonna play the Hoodie card and how that's ultra important in this game even though the personnel is different in this superbowl, quinn being at the superbowl 3 of the past 4 years has to count for something.....

    The mindset of if you go down in flames you want your on Brady rather than the falcons is absurd. Really? Is that how you bet big a $$ games? Did you bet green bay then over atlanta a few weeks ago. If you didn't and took atlanta, you contradict yourself. Rodgers over ryan, right? It was engrained in peoples minds. Nope. Personally, I am looking at both sides of the coin for Sunday but once again, we come across a gambler who gives Matt ryan no credit; who gives atlanta no credit. Is atlanta supposed to line up and because its the patriots, just hand the trophy over? For most patriots backers, the NFC Pro Bowl team could line up against brady and hoodie and theyd still take the patriots. Ultimately, For every patriot ideology you have, I can come back with an Atlanta one bud. Looking at both sides though is the key. You already knew that though, huh? 

    Lastly, about the line. Do you think you are in on something with this line being so low? Is this your trump card? The secret nobody is supposed to know? Why do you think the books set the line the way they did? Think about that for a while before you scoff. This question along with many others has been on my mind all week. We will find out soon.....Enjoy the game 
     
    chaloots
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 1:15 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Interesting post. As I stated previously, it will indeed be the backs for Atlanta that will cause the most issues. You being a devout patriots fan should know though that they have problems with teams who have ballers at the running back position that can catch the pigskin. And to keep julio at check sunday, that takes a village big guy. Its funny because you, along with every other patriots backer makes it sound so easy to stop this offense of atlanta's. The "historical" defense of the patriots, right? You say atlanta hasn't faced an offense like the patriots? Well, we can say the same  thing about the patriots not facing an offense like Atlanta's. Does quinn not being in this game two years ago, seeing the schemes, the personnel, having the experience against hoodie, count for anything? If not, yikes. Sure it's different personnel but if you are gonna play the Hoodie card and how that's ultra important in this game even though the personnel is different in this superbowl, quinn being at the superbowl 3 of the past 4 years has to count for something.....

    The mindset of if you go down in flames you want your on Brady rather than the falcons is absurd. Really? Is that how you bet big a $$ games? Did you bet green bay then over atlanta a few weeks ago. If you didn't and took atlanta, you contradict yourself. Rodgers over ryan, right? It was engrained in peoples minds. Nope. Personally, I am looking at both sides of the coin for Sunday but once again, we come across a gambler who gives Matt ryan no credit; who gives atlanta no credit. Is atlanta supposed to line up and because its the patriots, just hand the trophy over? For most patriots backers, the NFC Pro Bowl team could line up against brady and hoodie and theyd still take the patriots. Ultimately, For every patriot ideology you have, I can come back with an Atlanta one bud. Looking at both sides though is the key. You already knew that though, huh? 

    Lastly, about the line. Do you think you are in on something with this line being so low? Is this your trump card? The secret nobody is supposed to know? Why do you think the books set the line the way they did? Think about that for a while before you scoff. This question along with many others has been on my mind all week. We will find out soon.....Enjoy the game 

    1) I have said in my other posts that the speed at LB for New England is a problem and the back create the biggest problem for the Pats defense.

    2) Had Atlanta in both playoff games as I stated in my other thread(Pbox). You aren't comparing apples to apples, Atlanta was at home against a beat up Packers team with terrible CB's playing , big difference than being on a neutral field against a healthy Pats team.

    3) Where did I not give Ryan credit?

    4) You talk down like I am some novice gambler that doesn't look at all angles or bets with my heart, that is not me. Been around the gambling world for 25+ years.

    5) Good luck, as for me I will take the better team, better coach, better qb -3. I realize games aren't won on paper or on past results. I get that ATL is a heck of a team with a great offense but are we forgetting that the Pats went 14-2 in the regular season, 3-1 without Brady? Dismantled Pitt in the playoffs? Don't care who they played in the regulars season it is hard to go 14-2 and 8-0 on the road.

    6) If people want to bet with the notion that (Vegas knows something) theory with the line being only -3 then good luck with that theory, I for one would have been comfortable laying 6 as I thought that is where it would open. I will gladly take the 3 point gift that I have now.  GL


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    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Interesting post. As I stated previously, it will indeed be the backs for Atlanta that will cause the most issues. You being a devout patriots fan should know though that they have problems with teams who have ballers at the running back position that can catch the pigskin. And to keep julio at check sunday, that takes a village big guy. Its funny because you, along with every other patriots backer makes it sound so easy to stop this offense of atlanta's. The "historical" defense of the patriots, right? You say atlanta hasn't faced an offense like the patriots? Well, we can say the same  thing about the patriots not facing an offense like Atlanta's. Does quinn not being in this game two years ago, seeing the schemes, the personnel, having the experience against hoodie, count for anything? If not, yikes. Sure it's different personnel but if you are gonna play the Hoodie card and how that's ultra important in this game even though the personnel is different in this superbowl, quinn being at the superbowl 3 of the past 4 years has to count for something.....

    The mindset of if you go down in flames you want your on Brady rather than the falcons is absurd. Really? Is that how you bet big a $$ games? Did you bet green bay then over atlanta a few weeks ago. If you didn't and took atlanta, you contradict yourself. Rodgers over ryan, right? It was engrained in peoples minds. Nope. Personally, I am looking at both sides of the coin for Sunday but once again, we come across a gambler who gives Matt ryan no credit; who gives atlanta no credit. Is atlanta supposed to line up and because its the patriots, just hand the trophy over? For most patriots backers, the NFC Pro Bowl team could line up against brady and hoodie and theyd still take the patriots. Ultimately, For every patriot ideology you have, I can come back with an Atlanta one bud. Looking at both sides though is the key. You already knew that though, huh? 

    Lastly, about the line. Do you think you are in on something with this line being so low? Is this your trump card? The secret nobody is supposed to know? Why do you think the books set the line the way they did? Think about that for a while before you scoff. This question along with many others has been on my mind all week. We will find out soon.....Enjoy the game 

    1) I have said in my other posts that the speed at LB for New England is a problem and the back create the biggest problem for the Pats defense.

    2) Had Atlanta in both playoff games as I stated in my other thread(Pbox). You aren't comparing apples to apples, Atlanta was at home against a beat up Packers team with terrible CB's playing , big difference than being on a neutral field against a healthy Pats team.

    3) Where did I not give Ryan credit?

    4) You talk down like I am some novice gambler that doesn't look at all angles or bets with my heart, that is not me. Been around the gambling world for 25+ years.

    5) Good luck, as for me I will take the better team, better coach, better qb -3. I realize games aren't won on paper or on past results. I get that ATL is a heck of a team with a great offense but are we forgetting that the Pats went 14-2 in the regular season, 3-1 without Brady? Dismantled Pitt in the playoffs? Don't care who they played in the regulars season it is hard to go 14-2 and 8-0 on the road.

    6) If people want to bet with the notion that (Vegas knows something) theory with the line being only -3 then good luck with that theory, I for one would have been comfortable laying 6 as I thought that is where it would open. I will gladly take the 3 point gift that I have now.  GL


     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 1:36 PM ET #6

    Not talking down but better team, better coach and better qb? From what year? This year or past years? It sounds to me like experience weighs heavily in your decisions. That's fine but for me, just because someone has experience....that doesn't mean everything. I respect your play amigo and hope you enjoy the game. I'm going to bet on THIS GAME WITH THESE PLAYERS. History means nothing to me in that a lot of the players aren't on these current teams. Freeney the only one with superbowl experience.....so what. Everybody has to gain that experience and what better way than to do that Sunday. Again, enjoy the game man.
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    Not talking down but better team, better coach and better qb? From what year? This year or past years? It sounds to me like experience weighs heavily in your decisions. That's fine but for me, just because someone has experience....that doesn't mean everything. I respect your play amigo and hope you enjoy the game. I'm going to bet on THIS GAME WITH THESE PLAYERS. History means nothing to me in that a lot of the players aren't on these current teams. Freeney the only one with superbowl experience.....so what. Everybody has to gain that experience and what better way than to do that Sunday. Again, enjoy the game man.
     
    Bet_The_House
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 4:44 AM ET #7

    If SOS doesn't mean anything in the nfl what about the stat that since 2001 teams with a 10 or more strength of schedule advantage cover in thr playoffs 68% of the time?
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    If SOS doesn't mean anything in the nfl what about the stat that since 2001 teams with a 10 or more strength of schedule advantage cover in thr playoffs 68% of the time?
     
    BrownianMotion
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 5:22 AM ET #8

    Usually I'd take strength of schedule more seriously, but this Atlanta team just isn't that good. They are fatally flawed at the most fundamental level - they are a poor tackling team who is dead last in the league in YAC allowed, and they are bad when it comes to situational football on both sides of the ball. You're not beating a Belichick coached team if you've got poor fundamentals. 

    I also see NE winning the battle in the trenches. They've got a very good and smart front 7 that's good vs the run, and I expect them to exploit the weakness of Atlanta's RG and get some interior pressure on Ryan. Meanwhile, their OL should do well vs Atlanta's undersized front 7.

    People get way too enamored with offensive stats, but always ignore the fundamentals. Atlanta won't be winning, and you'll be very disappointed if you're expecting them to.
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    Usually I'd take strength of schedule more seriously, but this Atlanta team just isn't that good. They are fatally flawed at the most fundamental level - they are a poor tackling team who is dead last in the league in YAC allowed, and they are bad when it comes to situational football on both sides of the ball. You're not beating a Belichick coached team if you've got poor fundamentals. 

    I also see NE winning the battle in the trenches. They've got a very good and smart front 7 that's good vs the run, and I expect them to exploit the weakness of Atlanta's RG and get some interior pressure on Ryan. Meanwhile, their OL should do well vs Atlanta's undersized front 7.

    People get way too enamored with offensive stats, but always ignore the fundamentals. Atlanta won't be winning, and you'll be very disappointed if you're expecting them to.
     
    poopy
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 5:43 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by chaloots:

    Let me break it down for you guys, SOS doesn't mean shitt in the NFL. 

    i lol'ed @ this nonsense
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    Quote Originally Posted by chaloots:

    Let me break it down for you guys, SOS doesn't mean shitt in the NFL. 

    i lol'ed @ this nonsense
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 6:17 AM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Why do you think the books set the line the way they did? Think about that for a while before you scoff. 

    This is my favorite argument.  Books are out to make money, not to deceive the public.  Line opened as a PK and let the public decide which way they wanted the line to move.  Line quickly moved to Pats -3 and stayed there, the juice fluctuated a little and then a few hundred k bets came in on ATL to bring the juice back down to -110.  Books setting the line has no bearing on the final score, just because the line is at -3 doesn't mean it will be a close game.  All signs point to this being a blow out.  If we had two teams with decent defenses it may be another story.  If we had two teams with decent offenses and not much to speak of on defense we might have a chase to see who can get ahead first and fastest.  Neither is this case, we have one team with a strong defense and one team with arguably the weakest defense in all of football.

    Here are the teams that have let up more points than ATL this season:

    ATL 406
    -------------------
    NYJ 409 (5-11)
    SDC 423 (5-11)
    CLE 452 (1-15)
    NOS 454 (7-9)
    SFO 480 (2-14)

    Honorable mentions:

    CAR 402 (6-10)
    JAX 400 (3-13)
    CHI 399 (3-13)
    LAR 394 (4-12)

    ATL only team with a winning record in that group of 10 NFL teams that gave up the most points during regular season in 2016, it really amplifies their 5 losses and puts the Patriots 2 losses in perspective IMO, not only the fewest points allowed but also the best record in the NFL, it is no coincidence.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Why do you think the books set the line the way they did? Think about that for a while before you scoff. 

    This is my favorite argument.  Books are out to make money, not to deceive the public.  Line opened as a PK and let the public decide which way they wanted the line to move.  Line quickly moved to Pats -3 and stayed there, the juice fluctuated a little and then a few hundred k bets came in on ATL to bring the juice back down to -110.  Books setting the line has no bearing on the final score, just because the line is at -3 doesn't mean it will be a close game.  All signs point to this being a blow out.  If we had two teams with decent defenses it may be another story.  If we had two teams with decent offenses and not much to speak of on defense we might have a chase to see who can get ahead first and fastest.  Neither is this case, we have one team with a strong defense and one team with arguably the weakest defense in all of football.

    Here are the teams that have let up more points than ATL this season:

    ATL 406
    -------------------
    NYJ 409 (5-11)
    SDC 423 (5-11)
    CLE 452 (1-15)
    NOS 454 (7-9)
    SFO 480 (2-14)

    Honorable mentions:

    CAR 402 (6-10)
    JAX 400 (3-13)
    CHI 399 (3-13)
    LAR 394 (4-12)

    ATL only team with a winning record in that group of 10 NFL teams that gave up the most points during regular season in 2016, it really amplifies their 5 losses and puts the Patriots 2 losses in perspective IMO, not only the fewest points allowed but also the best record in the NFL, it is no coincidence.


     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 7:18 AM ET #11

    If we look purely at points given up by each of the opponents of the Patriots vs. Falcons AFTER subtracting any points the Patriots or Falcons have scored against their opponents we will find (we do this so we don't skew the results in favor of the Patriots who scored fewer regular season points):

    Patriots opponents have allowed 4294 points during the 2016 regular season against non-Patriots opponents

    Falcons opponents have allowed 4348 points during the 2016 regular season against non-Falcons opponents

    Now an argument can obviously be made that Falcons faced teams with stronger offenses, but the above proves the Falcons had a softer schedule against teams with weaker defenses in that they allowed more points per game.
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    If we look purely at points given up by each of the opponents of the Patriots vs. Falcons AFTER subtracting any points the Patriots or Falcons have scored against their opponents we will find (we do this so we don't skew the results in favor of the Patriots who scored fewer regular season points):

    Patriots opponents have allowed 4294 points during the 2016 regular season against non-Patriots opponents

    Falcons opponents have allowed 4348 points during the 2016 regular season against non-Falcons opponents

    Now an argument can obviously be made that Falcons faced teams with stronger offenses, but the above proves the Falcons had a softer schedule against teams with weaker defenses in that they allowed more points per game.
     
    thawv
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 7:36 AM ET #12

    I don't think SOS is that big of a deal in the NFL.  College?  Of course.  But if you are that guy,  Here's your info.

    NE 32nd
    Atl 16th
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    I don't think SOS is that big of a deal in the NFL.  College?  Of course.  But if you are that guy,  Here's your info.

    NE 32nd
    Atl 16th
     
    OStateBucks
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 12:15 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

    If we look purely at points given up by each of the opponents of the Patriots vs. Falcons AFTER subtracting any points the Patriots or Falcons have scored against their opponents we will find (we do this so we don't skew the results in favor of the Patriots who scored fewer regular season points):

    Patriots opponents have allowed 4294 points during the 2016 regular season against non-Patriots opponents

    Falcons opponents have allowed 4348 points during the 2016 regular season against non-Falcons opponents

    Now an argument can obviously be made that Falcons faced teams with stronger offenses, but the above proves the Falcons had a softer schedule against teams with weaker defenses in that they allowed more points per game.

    Of course! The 54 point difference is the definitive proof we've been missing. Clearly the 17.9 PPG given by the Pats opponents shows the clear defensive superiority over the ATL opponents who gave up an embarrassing 18.1 PPG.

    Afterall, football is a game of inches...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

    If we look purely at points given up by each of the opponents of the Patriots vs. Falcons AFTER subtracting any points the Patriots or Falcons have scored against their opponents we will find (we do this so we don't skew the results in favor of the Patriots who scored fewer regular season points):

    Patriots opponents have allowed 4294 points during the 2016 regular season against non-Patriots opponents

    Falcons opponents have allowed 4348 points during the 2016 regular season against non-Falcons opponents

    Now an argument can obviously be made that Falcons faced teams with stronger offenses, but the above proves the Falcons had a softer schedule against teams with weaker defenses in that they allowed more points per game.

    Of course! The 54 point difference is the definitive proof we've been missing. Clearly the 17.9 PPG given by the Pats opponents shows the clear defensive superiority over the ATL opponents who gave up an embarrassing 18.1 PPG.

    Afterall, football is a game of inches...
     
    VegasVandal
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 12:23 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by joeflaccid:

    exactly you even said it yourself, why isn't the line -6. lol good luck sunday you're going to need it.




    Strong strong line should give strong pause here. The situation reminds me exactly of the Bama/Clemson ship . Clemson very strong on offense and does JUST enough on defense to scratch out the win going up against a perennial (media mostly) darling in the Pats and you only have to win by 1 score.
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeflaccid:

    exactly you even said it yourself, why isn't the line -6. lol good luck sunday you're going to need it.




    Strong strong line should give strong pause here. The situation reminds me exactly of the Bama/Clemson ship . Clemson very strong on offense and does JUST enough on defense to scratch out the win going up against a perennial (media mostly) darling in the Pats and you only have to win by 1 score.
     
    thawv
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 1:18 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by bigamoose:

    HERE ya go simply results OF superbowls past when DEFENSES won vs high flying #1 offense with low ranked defenses same as Falcons


    Last year Panthers got smoked vs Denvers #1 defesne 5 point favorite too Panthers lost out of gate 24-10

    Seattle Seahawks 43, Denver Broncos 8 Broncos chalked - 2 1/2

    New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17 PATRIOTS FAVORED by 3

     New Orleans Saints 31, Indianapolis Colts 17 colts FAVORED BY 5

    New York Giants 17, New England 14 patriots favored BY 12 POINTS

    Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17 COLTS favored by 7

     Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21 RAIDERS favored by 4 New

     England 20, St. Louis 17 RAMS FAVORED by 14

    Baltimore 34, New York Giants 7 RAVENS favored by 3 best defense ever posted 4 shutouts in season

    Denver 34, Atlanta 19 Denver was favored by 7 1/2

    Denver 31, Green Bay 24 packers were favored but this game went into 4th quarter

    Dallas 52, Buffalo 17 dallas was favored
    Dallas 30, Buffalo 13 Dallas favored by 10 1/2

     New York Giants 20, Buffalo 19 Bills favored by 6 1/2 and forever in thier history will wide right be heard pstttttt bill bellichek was on Giants with Bill Parcells that year.

    Chicago 46, New England 10 Bears favored by i dunno what

    BOOM clunk Bam sound of microphone dropped on stage as i walk off



    With all due respect, NE has the 10th ranked defense in yards per play.  Top third in the league is pretty solid.  But it's hardly in the category of those teams you mentioned.  It's definitely not even close to elite.  Atlanta will likely be in the mid 30's for this game..
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigamoose:

    HERE ya go simply results OF superbowls past when DEFENSES won vs high flying #1 offense with low ranked defenses same as Falcons


    Last year Panthers got smoked vs Denvers #1 defesne 5 point favorite too Panthers lost out of gate 24-10

    Seattle Seahawks 43, Denver Broncos 8 Broncos chalked - 2 1/2

    New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17 PATRIOTS FAVORED by 3

     New Orleans Saints 31, Indianapolis Colts 17 colts FAVORED BY 5

    New York Giants 17, New England 14 patriots favored BY 12 POINTS

    Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17 COLTS favored by 7

     Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21 RAIDERS favored by 4 New

     England 20, St. Louis 17 RAMS FAVORED by 14

    Baltimore 34, New York Giants 7 RAVENS favored by 3 best defense ever posted 4 shutouts in season

    Denver 34, Atlanta 19 Denver was favored by 7 1/2

    Denver 31, Green Bay 24 packers were favored but this game went into 4th quarter

    Dallas 52, Buffalo 17 dallas was favored
    Dallas 30, Buffalo 13 Dallas favored by 10 1/2

     New York Giants 20, Buffalo 19 Bills favored by 6 1/2 and forever in thier history will wide right be heard pstttttt bill bellichek was on Giants with Bill Parcells that year.

    Chicago 46, New England 10 Bears favored by i dunno what

    BOOM clunk Bam sound of microphone dropped on stage as i walk off



    With all due respect, NE has the 10th ranked defense in yards per play.  Top third in the league is pretty solid.  But it's hardly in the category of those teams you mentioned.  It's definitely not even close to elite.  Atlanta will likely be in the mid 30's for this game..
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 1:23 PM ET #16

    Vegas- the analogy you made to the bama/Clemson game is one I made as well in another thread. Good stuff amigo. The ones jumping up and down immediately after seeing the "small, gift" line need to be cautious. New England very well could cover this spread but when I saw that line, I stopped and thought. What's the motive behind the line? It sure wasn't to get even money. Nope. It's definitely been on my mind this week. Good insight vegasvandal
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    Vegas- the analogy you made to the bama/Clemson game is one I made as well in another thread. Good stuff amigo. The ones jumping up and down immediately after seeing the "small, gift" line need to be cautious. New England very well could cover this spread but when I saw that line, I stopped and thought. What's the motive behind the line? It sure wasn't to get even money. Nope. It's definitely been on my mind this week. Good insight vegasvandal
     
    Nycgags
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 1:40 PM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv:



    With all due respect, NE has the 10th ranked defense in yards per play.  Top third in the league is pretty solid.  But it's hardly in the category of those teams you mentioned.  It's definitely not even close to elite.  Atlanta will likely be in the mid 30's for this game..

    Not sure you would zero in on such an obscure stat as Opponent Yards per Play.  The difference between #10 Patriots and #3 Texans is a measly 0.2 yards per play.

    You realize the offensive performances on a PER GAME BASIS this season between Ryan and Brady are marginal at best, right?

    And the GAP in defensive AND special teams ability between ATL and NEP is HUUGE, right?

    NEP (#1) even has the edge in 1st Quarter scoring against ATL (#2), so the theory that ATL is going to bust out into a huge early lead is a pipe dream.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv:



    With all due respect, NE has the 10th ranked defense in yards per play.  Top third in the league is pretty solid.  But it's hardly in the category of those teams you mentioned.  It's definitely not even close to elite.  Atlanta will likely be in the mid 30's for this game..

    Not sure you would zero in on such an obscure stat as Opponent Yards per Play.  The difference between #10 Patriots and #3 Texans is a measly 0.2 yards per play.

    You realize the offensive performances on a PER GAME BASIS this season between Ryan and Brady are marginal at best, right?

    And the GAP in defensive AND special teams ability between ATL and NEP is HUUGE, right?

    NEP (#1) even has the edge in 1st Quarter scoring against ATL (#2), so the theory that ATL is going to bust out into a huge early lead is a pipe dream.
     
    Cooler999
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2017 - 1:51 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by bigamoose:

     

    BOOM clunk Bam sound of microphone dropped on stage as i walk off


    If only that were TRUE!!!!!!!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigamoose:

     

    BOOM clunk Bam sound of microphone dropped on stage as i walk off


    If only that were TRUE!!!!!!!!
     
    chaloots
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2017 - 11:42 AM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by poopy:


    i lol'ed @ this nonsense

    That's because you are an idiot and didn't read why it doesn't mean much in the NFL.
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopy:


    i lol'ed @ this nonsense

    That's because you are an idiot and didn't read why it doesn't mean much in the NFL.
     
    Spytheweb
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2017 - 2:38 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by chaloots:

    Let me break it down for you guys, SOS doesn't mean shitt in the NFL. The  number with the highest % of games landed on is 3 points. Everyone in the NFL is good, worry about SOS in Coll football and Coll hoops not in the NFL.

    Everyone is talking about the Patriots weak schedule, how about you look at ATl's weak defense? Brady will pick that defense apart. The give up on average 10 more points a game than the Pat's defense not to mention Atl will be going up against the second best offense they faced all year led by the best QB and Coach in the NFL. GL to Atls backers but if I am going to lose, I will go down with the best QB, best Coach combo of all time. I will go with the experienced QB and Coach.

    This game will not come down to Julio Jones, it will come down to how well the Patriot's can contain Freeman and Coleman out of the backfield IMO, they will need to chip them both immediately like they did with Marshall Faulk in the past and make Ryan force the balls into tight windows to Jones.

    I don't see Atlanta getting too many defensive stops in this game. I had Atlanta in both home playoff games, big difference here not playing at home against 2 banged up teams.

    Like I said, I will roll with the G.O.A.T -3, I thought the line should have opened at 6.

    The reason the New York Giants beat NE twice is because the AFC is weak. Brady is in a system that can plug in any QB. Falcons want it more and NE thinks they already won the game.


    Good teams win games, Great teams cover the spread!
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    Quote Originally Posted by chaloots:

    Let me break it down for you guys, SOS doesn't mean shitt in the NFL. The  number with the highest % of games landed on is 3 points. Everyone in the NFL is good, worry about SOS in Coll football and Coll hoops not in the NFL.

    Everyone is talking about the Patriots weak schedule, how about you look at ATl's weak defense? Brady will pick that defense apart. The give up on average 10 more points a game than the Pat's defense not to mention Atl will be going up against the second best offense they faced all year led by the best QB and Coach in the NFL. GL to Atls backers but if I am going to lose, I will go down with the best QB, best Coach combo of all time. I will go with the experienced QB and Coach.

    This game will not come down to Julio Jones, it will come down to how well the Patriot's can contain Freeman and Coleman out of the backfield IMO, they will need to chip them both immediately like they did with Marshall Faulk in the past and make Ryan force the balls into tight windows to Jones.

    I don't see Atlanta getting too many defensive stops in this game. I had Atlanta in both home playoff games, big difference here not playing at home against 2 banged up teams.

    Like I said, I will roll with the G.O.A.T -3, I thought the line should have opened at 6.

    The reason the New York Giants beat NE twice is because the AFC is weak. Brady is in a system that can plug in any QB. Falcons want it more and NE thinks they already won the game.


     
    chaloots
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2017 - 3:30 PM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by Spytheweb:


    The reason the New York Giants beat NE twice is because the AFC is weak. Brady is in a system that can plug in any QB. Falcons want it more and NE thinks they already won the game.



    Where do you morons come from? Stop watching and betting on sports, you are clueless. So the weak AFC is why the Patriots lost 2 super bowls but the weak AFC had no impact on the 4 super bowls they won?  What a phucking moron 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spytheweb:


    The reason the New York Giants beat NE twice is because the AFC is weak. Brady is in a system that can plug in any QB. Falcons want it more and NE thinks they already won the game.



    Where do you morons come from? Stop watching and betting on sports, you are clueless. So the weak AFC is why the Patriots lost 2 super bowls but the weak AFC had no impact on the 4 super bowls they won?  What a phucking moron 
     
    dangimgd
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2017 - 8:43 PM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Vegas- the analogy you made to the bama/Clemson game is one I made as well in another thread. Good stuff amigo. The ones jumping up and down immediately after seeing the "small, gift" line need to be cautious. New England very well could cover this spread but when I saw that line, I stopped and thought. What's the motive behind the line? It sure wasn't to get even money. Nope. It's definitely been on my mind this week. Good insight vegasvandal




    I always thought that 3 pt favs on road or neutral sites is book's way of begging for favs money. 

    You can't make them underdogs or close to pick 'em because you can spook the suckers.

    3 pt line for favs give the suckers that false sense of security that you are wagering on the better team but at a comfortable margin, believing all you have to do is win s/up.

    They usually lure the suckers in with juicy lines like 3 pts & BAM! kick them in the balls.

    When things are too good to be true, they never are.

      
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    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Vegas- the analogy you made to the bama/Clemson game is one I made as well in another thread. Good stuff amigo. The ones jumping up and down immediately after seeing the "small, gift" line need to be cautious. New England very well could cover this spread but when I saw that line, I stopped and thought. What's the motive behind the line? It sure wasn't to get even money. Nope. It's definitely been on my mind this week. Good insight vegasvandal




    I always thought that 3 pt favs on road or neutral sites is book's way of begging for favs money. 

    You can't make them underdogs or close to pick 'em because you can spook the suckers.

    3 pt line for favs give the suckers that false sense of security that you are wagering on the better team but at a comfortable margin, believing all you have to do is win s/up.

    They usually lure the suckers in with juicy lines like 3 pts & BAM! kick them in the balls.

    When things are too good to be true, they never are.

      
     
    Maukaboy
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    Posted: Feb. 4, 2017 - 2:31 AM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by dangimgd:





    I always thought that 3 pt favs on road or neutral sites is book's way of begging for favs money. 

    You can't make them underdogs or close to pick 'em because you can spook the suckers.

    3 pt line for favs give the suckers that false sense of security that you are wagering on the better team but at a comfortable margin, believing all you have to do is win s/up.

    They usually lure the suckers in with juicy lines like 3 pts & BAM! kick them in the balls.

    When things are too good to be true, they never are.

      
    good one dude 
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    Quote Originally Posted by dangimgd:





    I always thought that 3 pt favs on road or neutral sites is book's way of begging for favs money. 

    You can't make them underdogs or close to pick 'em because you can spook the suckers.

    3 pt line for favs give the suckers that false sense of security that you are wagering on the better team but at a comfortable margin, believing all you have to do is win s/up.

    They usually lure the suckers in with juicy lines like 3 pts & BAM! kick them in the balls.

    When things are too good to be true, they never are.

      
    good one dude 
     
    poopy
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    Posted: Feb. 4, 2017 - 5:18 AM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:


    If only that were TRUE!!!!!!!!

    when faced with a tough decision.  ask yourself what chaloots would do, then do the opposite.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:


    If only that were TRUE!!!!!!!!

    when faced with a tough decision.  ask yourself what chaloots would do, then do the opposite.
     
     
    chaloots
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    Posted: Feb. 4, 2017 - 11:41 AM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by poopy:


    when faced with a tough decision.  ask yourself what chaloots would do, then do the opposite.

    Hey Shiit boy, maybe you should pay attention to my record before running your mouth, then again you are a zero and don't post picks just talk trash. Either way, enjoy your day, hope  your mommy made you a nice breakfast.
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopy:


    when faced with a tough decision.  ask yourself what chaloots would do, then do the opposite.

    Hey Shiit boy, maybe you should pay attention to my record before running your mouth, then again you are a zero and don't post picks just talk trash. Either way, enjoy your day, hope  your mommy made you a nice breakfast.
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