*** Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots *** Superbowl Discussion

Reasons why the Patriots will be better this week than in the AFC championship game.

·       Gronk - I mentioned how much more crucial he is to the offense this year since Brady’s #1 target Edelman is already out for the season. Gronk and Edelman account for more than 40%+ of all of Brady’s targets when on the field together. The Patriots were just 3/12 on third down against the Jags converting just 25% with Gronk playing only 27 minutes. 25% was the 2nd worst third down percentage Brady has had over the past 2 seasons. Despite all that, they still managed to somehow score 24 points.

·        Alan Branch -  After being probable all the way up to game-time, the Patriots top rush stuffer was a late scratch missing his 5th straight game. The Jags rushed for 101 yards against New England, but with 2 additional weeks to get healthy – Branch will certainly provide a boost adding depth w/ Jean Francois.

·        Brady – Although Brady looked healthy against the Jags, he was still playing 3 days after getting 12 stitches on his throwing hand and was limited during 3 practice sessions prior to the game. He should be 100% with the 2 weeks off and more importantly, will be a full participant in every practice leading to kickoff.

·        The Patriots beat the Jags despite losing the turnover margin. New England has always been at the tops in the league in turnover margin as they turn the ball over less than any other team in the NFL. Will they lose the TO margin again against the Eagles? It’s definitely possible with the way Philly’s defense has played, but the #s say otherwise.

·         The Patriots will be facing a lesser Pass rush. The Jaguars had 54 sacks on the year and showed Brady some pressure, regardless Brady still put up nearly 300 yards despite Gronk going out early. The Eagles only had 38 sacks on the year. Additionally, Patriots OT Waddle was out for last week’s game against the Jags, he’ll be back this game to provide an additional boost.

·         Line value. Prior to the Conference Championship games, the advanced line was Patriots -7, Eagles +7. This Eagles team is the EXACT same team they had prior to the Minnesota game, giving us several points of value.

 

Reasons why Eagles will be better than They were Last Week:

·         MLB Ellerby was inactive last week against Minnesota. As one of their defensive leaders, Ellerby’s return will provide another boost to the Eagles D.

·         Jim Schwartz has his defense playing the best of the year, and will now have 2 weeks of preparation against Brady and New England’s creative offense.

·        Marcell Dareus was a huge problem for the Pats, as New England only scored 17 points before Dareus left the game (although Gronk being out had part to do with that). Fletcher Cox will surely give New England very similar problems in the trenches.

Reasons why the Eagles won’t be as good as they were last week:

·        This game, both teams will have two weeks to study their opponent. The Eagles had 1 more day of preparation than the Vikings did last weekend as the team played on Saturday vs Minnesota playing the Saints on Sunday. While 1 day of preparation isn’t that huge of a deal, it’s more critical in last week’s game as Case Keenum openly admitted the team had less than 3 hours of sleep for 2 days after the victory due to the thrilling ending. I should have put more weight into it before that game but the way the Vikings celebrated the win in the tunnel post-victory and celebrating later that night had to have been draining.

·        Road/Home Dichotomy. Minnesota is a team that plays so much better at home than on the road. Over the past 2 seasons, Minnesota has covered 80% of their home games, while just 46% of their road games. The Eagles happily took advantage playing in their own stadium. The Patriots meanwhile play the same on the road or at home, in fact, they have a better cover rate away from home over the past 2 seasons.

·        Eagles had the luxury of playing at home the last two weeks in weather conditions, against two teams that play in a dome.

·        Zach Ertz, Torrey Smith, Nelson Agholor, and Alshon Jeffery combined to catch 21 of 23 targets from Nick Foles in last week’s game. Will that be repeated? Of course it’s possible, but remember Belichick and Matt Patricia now have two weeks to prepare against this.

·        Eagles played both the Falcons and Vikings last year which provided Schwartz some added game film to prepare for. The Eagles have not seen the Patriots as of yet which is definitely an advantage to New England, as Belichick and Brady are a perfect 15-0 in the playoffs when facing an opponent that hasn’t faced them earlier in the year. (However, the Falcons and Jags were up a combined 42-6 before both teams lost)

Would love if Eagles fans could chime in and add some added points on their team and anything that I might have missed. Nothing locked in for me at this point, but will definitely be on the Pats @ -4 and ML. Pats money is waiting for the lowest line but should come later in the week once it’s dipped to the low, and Gronk is cleared.

Nick Foles is battle tested and will do what needs to be done to win the game.  They have a steady and versatile attack with Ertz, Jefferey, Agholor, Smith, and their running attack,very fast front 4 defensive lineman that can get to Brady without blitzing, which will be key, as you saw in the Jacksonville game that knocked him around all game long.  Yes, Brady was still able to make the amazing comeback, but Philly won't let off the gas pedal.  Schwartz has his D playing their best football of the season right now, as stated above, and the defense is what drives this team and any other team that is successful to this point in the season especially.  The Eagles had very impressive wins against the Vikings, and Atlanta to get where they are now and it will be a great SB.  Patriots did not have a very impressive SOS especially last 4 or 5 games of the season despite Pitt and Jacksonville which they could of ( should of) lost in my opinion.  So the numbers that show up for New England's D the second half of the season aren't really what they appear because of  their weak schedule in my opinion. I've watched dam near all Pats games since 2000,  this Eagles D is the kind that TB has trouble with, fast, hard hitting, wreckless and I will gladly take 4.5 points especially when I think the Eagles are gonna win straight up.  I am a huge TB and Belicheck fan and of course people are going to bet them at anything less than a TD ( I don't care what consensus says or any other BS) you know Pats are currently getting pounded and will continue to before gametime.  That spread is dropping to get even more money on the Pats and Vegas won't lose like they did last year, bank it!!!!!  GL WITH YOUR PLAY LC, YOU ARE A CLASS ACT AND HATE BEING ON OPPOSITE SIDE OF YOU!!!!!

Good luck, LC, but I like PHL.

In watching both conference championships the big thing I would note is I thought both the Patriots and Vikings did not match the intensity of the Jaguars and Eagles.  In the case of the Vikings think it had to do with an emotional win and a road game for a franchise iffy on the road.  With the Patriots think like the Steelers before them were not ready for what the Jaguars brought.

The other item is the Eagles seemed to change their play calling mix about halfway through the Falcon game to run pass options that Foles is more comfortable with.  That continued into the Viking game with great success.  Mike Zimmer probably had fifteen pass plays similar to what the Vikings saw given RPO was only prominent in the second half of the Falcon game.  Now wondering if with 1.5 games of tape if Bill Belichek will have enough information to shut it down.  Often new players and scheme have success for a stretch due to teams not knowing how to scheme.  Neither the Falcons or Vikings defended RPO well so not a lot of tape on stopping the Foles/Eagles approach.  I had figured Zimmer could stop it given his track record against non HOF QBs and was wrong and lost money on that assumption.  Is there enough out there for the Pats who have rushed the QB well with 4 to stop it or no?

I like Philly LC. Philly played 2 very great teams in the playoffs to get to the Superbowl and where not expected to win either one. I believe this eagles team will be a very tough opponent for Brady and company. They would have had an much easier time with Vikings IMO. Good luck with your play. 

What's Foles' record in a Dome? He hasn't played in a dome this year. 

 

Great stuff lc

Would add an extra to your philly weather take

Pats play home games on field turf eagles do not 

 

SOS only has so much merit. Year after year the Pats rank low in SOS but what does it mean when they've played in 7 straight AFC championship games? The Jacksonville defense is better, especially at the LB and secondary position and I think NE can present some sizeable mismatches in their favor in base packages.

-Eagles Pass Rush vs. Tom Brady.

Alot is being talked about the Eagles defense and how they'll get pressure with the front 4 harassing Brady.  This pass rush isn't on par with those New York Giants teams that beat Brady twice, in fact check these numbers for Sacks/nfl rankings:

SEASON RANK      SACK TOTAL

1. Steelers            56

2. Jags                 55

5. Titans               43

7. Patriots             42

15.  Eagles            38

 

POSTSEASON

Rank                 Sack Total

1. New England        11

T4.  Philly                 4

 

So, the Eagles were in the middle of the pack in the regular season in Sacks, middle of the pack in the postseason (actually trailing the Pats in both).  The Eagles may generate pressure, but the Pats have been gameplanning for teams coming after Brady's head for a decade.  In the last 7 weeks alone, the Pats faced the # 1, #2, and #5 most prolific sack teams in the NFL.  The Pats of course won all 3 games.  Brady can get the ball out as fast as anybody, I don't buy that the Eagles harass him as much as is being portrayed.

 

 

Also people forget or don't realize a few things between 2007 Patriots and the 2017 Patriots.

LC...how low will this line get to by game day?...just waiting....

it cant go lower than -4.

eagles are the team that gets the most qb pressures. that doesn't show up on the stats but no team actually gets more pressure on the qb than they do. 

Eagles performance vs Vikes was an anomaly imo. No way Nick Foles is that good. Vikes blew their load vs Saints and once Keenum threw that pick 6 it was just a total snowball. Eagles defense is overrated. The median points they conceded was 23 which is a huge difference from their average of 17.9. They conceded 20+ points in 9/16 games hence the median of 23. They played three top 10 offenses and the median rank of offense they faced was 15 (average 17) so it was not an overly tough schedule they faced.

Look. It's a football game so anything CAN happen. But anyone who thinks that the team they saw whip Minny will be showing up on Sunday is insane.

LC, your original post laid out a lot of great points.

Things that played to Philly's advantage in the NFC Title game:

- Playing a team off one of the biggest wins in NFL history, almost impossible for that team to match that same intensity

- Extra day of rest/prep vs their opponent

- Credit to Philly coaching staff....they had a GREAT offensive game plan.  No way was Minny expecting Philly to come out and throw the ball down the field like they did.  Same thing w/the trick plays.  You could tell that Minny was totally unprepared for that.  Give Bill and his staff 2 weeks of prep and I strongly believe that he will not be fooled or caught off guard for what Philly will throw at them

- Obvious, but home field advantage.  How sure are we that Philly wins that game if it was played in Minnesota?

I do believe there is now good value on the Pats....I may go ML to be safe and save myself some sweat during the game.

 

If you don't mind, would like your feedback on a few props I am eyeing:

- Brady OV 294.5 passing yards -115

- Jake Elliot OV 1.5 made FGs -115

- Amendola OV 4.5 receptions -120

- Eagles win 1H, Pats win game +480

- Pats win 1H, Pats win game -120

- Will there be a defensive or special teams TD? Yes +170 (wish that was higher)

 

Thx again and GL with what you decide 

 

Locked In: