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Posted: #1351
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

2-2 on the night but with gain: +2000-1100=+900
+900$

Profit 

 
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Posted: #1352
16-12-1  nfl this season  -150$
 
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Posted: #1353
tonight is the night i love to cap the most. because the public and money are divided almost evenly which gives vegas lots of money from juice and no need to interfere. so, are we gonna see a straight game with no phixing? i will enjoy the game even without betting on it but betting is what i am here for.

first let's relate to the lines. is there any advantage in them. did lvsc do the job? or are they hoaxing us inviting us like in jets game to bet under while we took the right over side from the beginning figuring the line was released in order to trap us. ok, so the line for totals was 44 at the beginning and became 47 by now. the right calculation should be 40 points so why was the line that high? rushing is one of the most effective weapons and i guess the pats as well will be little weary of panthers pass defense. now both teams are tied at 23 with sacks. so it screams under here. and if already - the line released should have been at the very least 39.5. but then the glory of brady moved it up as well cuechly is supposed to deliver. not true. we're seeing in my humble opinion a score that will be more than 44 but not sure if will pass 47. brady is a master point fixer and i won't be surprise if the game ended in 45 points exactly.
so my choices are or under 47 or over 44?
let me think about it see how the lines run.
now about the sides. the calculated score should figure somewhere in a fg to panthers. 22-19 or 21-18. i'd even say ot here will be perfect. 17-17, 20-20. i don't see the pats winning this one but i see them leading the first half. like in jets game.
something to consider. 
now i will sit with some of my pals who have their pals and their pals of lals will tell them what the real pals of pals are betting if you get my drift. and that will be interesting because if they all betting the same - we know what to do - and if they dont - we'll go with our own perception and leans which right now - and only now stand at under 47 and panthers -3
 
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Posted: #1354
Phix, confident enough to parlay them? Or just making 2 straight bets, Under 47 and Carolina -3? Also, do you see either of these lines moving at all today, or would you lock them in soon?
 
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Posted: #1355
i never lock anything. those are leans and i hope you read the whole post and not only the bottom of it
 
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Posted: #1356
I did. To clarify, I was asking if you felt strongly enough about either of your leans to lock one in before the lines get too far away. FWIW, Carolina has not played a game with a total over 47 the entire year. They pushed it once.
 
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Posted: #1357
i have right now the leans only and as i said - that it is very suspicious that the line would be where it is at considering what you just said. i am actually right now with some phone calls received may go opposite on totals and take over 47. parlaying? well, too early in the season for me to do that. i like that after a new year
 
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Posted: #1358
he has the panthers to win by 3 so how could he play a side atm? I agree phix i see a 24-21 game to the panthers. bol whatever you play.
 
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Posted: #1359
micalf, I am not quite sure what you mean. The line is currently Car-2.5. If he thinks the Panthers will win by 3, it could make sense to lock it in at 2.5 before it possibly reaches 3. Maybe I misunderstood you comment, but either way, there's plenty of time till the game. Hopefulyl we will all have a strong lean on the game by then!
 
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Posted: #1360
yeh true i get what your saying, most books are up to 3 now and personally if i was too take a side it would be panthers 2.5 (if i could still get that which i cant) 
 
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Posted: #1361
Quote Originally Posted by uclalumnus:

Pfizer - thanks for the feedback.

The $20 a game was a joke but even $3000 a match isn't necessarily enough to keep a guy clean.  And isn't there a huge pool of refs?

Just saying US refs have a good salary and pension whereas the international ref doesn't know where it's coming from next.

I totally agree that international footballers are on the take and that soccer is fixed and if there were a US sport for games to have a chance to be fixed its the NBA.

I just don't see it in the NFL and overall a very rare occurrence in the US in all sports and not commonplace as it is internationally.

It's so much more than that. Soccer is unbelievably easy to fix as a ref.  Football is impossible by comparison. 

Plus, there's 7-8 officials in football.  And although there's a head official, he can't overrule others  w/o being obvious.  That's not true w/ soccer. The main referee decides most calls.  Plus, he can overrule any of the assistants. And there's no issue if he does.

There's no instant replay with soccer.  And, a soccer ref can call penalty kicks almost whenever they want. Or not call them. He can issue red cards (which means player ejection w/o being able to substitute, so one team plays w/ 1 less player for the rest of the game).

The bottom line is that you can't get 7-8 refs to conspire to fix an NFL game w/o a huge risk that 1 or 2 will slip and tell someone.  It's incredibly easy w/ 1 ref in soccer.

 

 
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Posted: #1362
O/U moving down. At least for now.
 
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Posted: #1363
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

It's so much more than that. Soccer is unbelievably easy to fix as a ref.  Football is impossible by comparison. 

Plus, there's 7-8 officials in football.  And although there's a head official, he can't overrule others  w/o being obvious.  That's not true w/ soccer. The main referee decides most calls.  Plus, he can overrule any of the assistants. And there's no issue if he does.

There's no instant replay with soccer.  And, a soccer ref can call penalty kicks almost whenever they want. Or not call them. He can issue red cards (which means player ejection w/o being able to substitute, so one team plays w/ 1 less player for the rest of the game).

The bottom line is that you can't get 7-8 refs to conspire to fix an NFL game w/o a huge risk that 1 or 2 will slip and tell someone.  It's incredibly easy w/ 1 ref in soccer.

 


Good points as well.

This game tonight is going over.  Brady is not Kaepernick.
 
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Posted: #1364
Panthers n over
 
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Posted: #1365
Panthers n over
 
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Posted: #1366
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

tonight is the night i love to cap the most. because the public and money are divided almost evenly which gives vegas lots of money from juice and no need to interfere. so, are we gonna see a straight game with no phixing? i will enjoy the game even without betting on it but betting is what i am here for.

first let's relate to the lines. is there any advantage in them. did lvsc do the job? or are they hoaxing us inviting us like in jets game to bet under while we took the right over side from the beginning figuring the line was released in order to trap us. ok, so the line for totals was 44 at the beginning and became 47 by now. the right calculation should be 40 points so why was the line that high? rushing is one of the most effective weapons and i guess the pats as well will be little weary of panthers pass defense. now both teams are tied at 23 with sacks. so it screams under here. and if already - the line released should have been at the very least 39.5. but then the glory of brady moved it up as well cuechly is supposed to deliver. not true. we're seeing in my humble opinion a score that will be more than 44 but not sure if will pass 47. brady is a master point fixer and i won't be surprise if the game ended in 45 points exactly.
so my choices are or under 47 or over 44?
let me think about it see how the lines run.
now about the sides. the calculated score should figure somewhere in a fg to panthers. 22-19 or 21-18. i'd even say ot here will be perfect. 17-17, 20-20. i don't see the pats winning this one but i see them leading the first half. like in jets game.
something to consider. 
now i will sit with some of my pals who have their pals and their pals of lals will tell them what the real pals of pals are betting if you get my drift. and that will be interesting because if they all betting the same - we know what to do - and if they dont - we'll go with our own perception and leans which right now - and only now stand at under 47 and panthers -3
 
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Posted: #1367
regular anti public monday?
 
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Posted: #1368
2h  over 21   1100$
 
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Posted: #1369
 14 already
 
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Posted: #1370
ha ha ha

this was easy
 
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Posted: #1371
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

ha ha ha

this was easy
It was indeed. Thank you Mr Phixer!
 
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Posted: #1372
Over 2h baby..HessHess
 
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Posted: #1373
over 21 2h win  +1000$


 
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Posted: #1374
both leans won as well as the 2h pick. 

1-0 on the night in picks
2-0 on the night in leans

total nfl this season   15-12-1 on picks
                               4-0 leans
-----------------------------------------------------------
                                19-12-1
                                +850$
 
 
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Posted: #1375
Great job Phixer!!!! Tailed you on the under!!! Thanks!!!! Keep it up!!!

Mahalo!!!
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