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phixer's nfl week 5

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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

joe public is all over the arizona. all over. the line is too fishy and the lions are due. 



 
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Posted: #127
Quote Originally Posted by mrdish33:

so ATL it`s a full game play and the 1st half go to redskins ?
hopefully
 
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Posted: #128
what do you like tonight sir?
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

double result means wash wins first half and atlanta the game. that kind of bet won twice in atlanta's 4 games when they came back in the second half to rally and since it is +500 it is worth taking at least to me

Wouldn't it make more sense to only bet the 1st half Wash and when the 2nd half line comes out (which would be at a discounted line compared to the full game line) then you can bet Atl 2nd half?  

I can only see it advantageous for a double bet like that before the game when you are wrong about the first half and end up winning full game.  Which usually means you wouldn't have been able to get the full game spread or better at halftime.  
 
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Posted: #130
My first sentence would only make sense assuming your first half bet does win.  
  I've never seen a  2nd half line where the favorite didn't cover and they would give a total of more than the full game spread.
 
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Posted: #131
Anything for tonight phixer ?
 
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Posted: #132
Phil, with regards to reverse line movement, you mentioned within the past few weeks the potential of misinformation of what % money is on what team(and that you have info that is not available to all).  I look at a couple sites for public % and they're generally in the same ballpark, but is that worth believing?   

Is there anything besides public % that makes NE seem like a bad bet any week?  On one hand they have gained a strong rep, but won 2of 3 by 7 only, on the other hand betting against Brady/grok is tough 
 
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Posted: #133

No.  If Washington is winning or even covers the 1H spread it is likely the pre game line will be much lower, the books will likely set a line that would require atl to not only come back but, go on to cover some type of winning margin.  So phixers theory is spot on, especially when getting 5:1 on your money on an outcome that has proven to work 50% of the time.  In this case we anticipate even slightly better odds of it happening. 

correct me if I'm wrong phix

 
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Posted: #134
NFL Week 5: TNF  HOU Texans vs IND Colts

This is a 5 Units Play

IND Colts +5  -110  550$

 
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Posted: #135
thxx!!!
 
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Posted: #136
NFL Week 5: TNF  HOU Texans vs IND Colts Totals

This is a 5 Units Play

Over 40.5  -110  550$

 
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Posted: #137
Detroit +2.5 is so contrarian that it just might work...
 
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Posted: #138
got sane k cuz. riding witdaold manand his weapons over an inexperienced klown wi limited playing time
 
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Posted: #139
Hey Phix, i'm on the same boat as you tonight. I was siding with hou but from my sources some sharp money came in on Ind last and you know we must follow the sharp money.  I was wondering what your insights were ?
 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:


Wouldn't it make more sense to only bet the 1st half Wash and when the 2nd half line comes out (which would be at a discounted line compared to the full game line) then you can bet Atl 2nd half?  

I can only see it advantageous for a double bet like that before the game when you are wrong about the first half and end up winning full game.  Which usually means you wouldn't have been able to get the full game spread or better at halftime.  
in case my main bet wins and the skins will win the first half - the line for the second most probably will include points in favor of the falcons. so, after investing 200$ i actually bought myself the right to bet the skins for a second half comfortably 660$ so in any case  come out the winner. if the skins win i 600 minus 200 invested in the double result = +400 and if the falcons win - i get 1000-660=340. and incase bthye skins win by a td the first half then the line will be the falcons -3.5 for the second and i might even get all the chicks in. but of course it is all conditional to what i will see a the first half
 
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Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by Cappincrunch77:

No.  If Washington is winning or even covers the 1H spread it is likely the pre game line will be much lower, the books will likely set a line that would require atl to not only come back but, go on to cover some type of winning margin.  So phixers theory is spot on, especially when getting 5:1 on your money on an outcome that has proven to work 50% of the time.  In this case we anticipate even slightly better odds of it happening. 

correct me if I'm wrong phix

spot on
 
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Posted: #142
 with you Phixer colts +4 for me
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by Cappincrunch77:

No.  If Washington is winning or even covers the 1H spread it is likely the pre game line will be much lower, the books will likely set a line that would require atl to not only come back but, go on to cover some type of winning margin.  So phixers theory is spot on, especially when getting 5:1 on your money on an outcome that has proven to work 50% of the time.  In this case we anticipate even slightly better odds of it happening. 

correct me if I'm wrong phix


That's not correct but I understand what you are saying. 

The 2nd half line will usually always be a discounted line compared to the full game spread if the favorite is down.

For example if Atlanta was down 3 at the half this week the half time spread would be lets say -4 to -6 Atlanta.   That means Atlanta only needs to win by a fg rather than a TD if you took the full game bet.  Many bettors would rebet their full game bet so now they have full game -7 and full game -3 from the halftime bet.

 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by Dapper_Dan:


I got a life buster  I'll have you know I drive a new 2015 Corvette and have a new custom made 2016 Corvette at the factory in Detroit being made just for me but the most impressive thing about me is my I have a Blond,Hott Hi-Maintenance Girlfriend
who caters me to my every whim....Wadda you have buddy?
they build corvettes in Bowling Green ,KY. just sayin
 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

spot on

 

... So I understand EV and the big picture on our double outcome BUT... I took IND+5 and OVER 41 in a parlay???

"but how can a guy who knows what hes doing make such a foolish bet" you ask?

-demons- lol

 
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Posted: #146
FYI Roddy White no happy about his touches per some reports met with Coach Quinn this week trouble in ATL?

 
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Posted: #147
That was an odd penalty overturn they didn't announce to the stadium.  
 
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Posted: #148
what a pass
 
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Posted: #149
so far so good
 
 
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Posted: #150
Yessir 
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