@suuma - and would you think that the same lions would be a fumble on a goal line and refs "mistake" away from beating seattle in seattle? ari -2.5? its a basic "football" reasoning against my reasoning that almost nothing happens the way it is "supposed" to happen. if it was -the vegas would be long broke, covers wouldn't exist and any second grader who is on a lunch break would be making tons of money just by adding couple stats together.
i guess what i am trying to say is "let's ruuummmbblleee". welcome to new and improved wwf>wwe>nba> and now nfl!
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@suuma - and would you think that the same lions would be a fumble on a goal line and refs "mistake" away from beating seattle in seattle? ari -2.5? its a basic "football" reasoning against my reasoning that almost nothing happens the way it is "supposed" to happen. if it was -the vegas would be long broke, covers wouldn't exist and any second grader who is on a lunch break would be making tons of money just by adding couple stats together.
i guess what i am trying to say is "let's ruuummmbblleee". welcome to new and improved wwf>wwe>nba> and now nfl!
Easy money? Money splits are 50/50 buddy and you know that. The line would be around -8 for Arizona at home so I don't believe it's short. I generally don't think about that stuff I just care about the matchup and play the lines I get.
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Easy money? Money splits are 50/50 buddy and you know that. The line would be around -8 for Arizona at home so I don't believe it's short. I generally don't think about that stuff I just care about the matchup and play the lines I get.
Easy money? Money splits are 50/50 buddy and you know that. The line would be around -8 for Arizona at home so I don't believe it's short. I generally don't think about that stuff I just care about the matchup and play the lines I get.
do you remember seattle broncos superbowl?
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Easy money? Money splits are 50/50 buddy and you know that. The line would be around -8 for Arizona at home so I don't believe it's short. I generally don't think about that stuff I just care about the matchup and play the lines I get.
If you look at Arizona's numbers they appear better than they actually are. Their first three games were significant wins but they never faced a decent defense. New Orleans, Chicago, and San Fran are not impressive defenses or impressive wins. The first good defense Arizona faced (Rams) they lost the game outright.
I think the lines makers mentality is that the rams beat both seattle and arizona by 2-3 points. Since Seattle won the game by 3 against Detroit, and they consider Arizona the same caliber team, then the line should be somewhere of the same (2.5). Then you have to take into account that Detroit should have technically won the game against the Seahawks and this time Detroit is home.
I think i just talked myself into Detroit after leaning AZ
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If you look at Arizona's numbers they appear better than they actually are. Their first three games were significant wins but they never faced a decent defense. New Orleans, Chicago, and San Fran are not impressive defenses or impressive wins. The first good defense Arizona faced (Rams) they lost the game outright.
I think the lines makers mentality is that the rams beat both seattle and arizona by 2-3 points. Since Seattle won the game by 3 against Detroit, and they consider Arizona the same caliber team, then the line should be somewhere of the same (2.5). Then you have to take into account that Detroit should have technically won the game against the Seahawks and this time Detroit is home.
I think i just talked myself into Detroit after leaning AZ
@suuma - and would you think that the same lions would be a fumble on a goal line and refs "mistake" away from beating seattle in seattle? ari -2.5? its a basic "football" reasoning against my reasoning that almost nothing happens the way it is "supposed" to happen. if it was -the vegas would be long broke, covers wouldn't exist and any second grader who is on a lunch break would be making tons of money just by adding couple stats together.
i guess what i am trying to say is "let's ruuummmbblleee". welcome to new and improved wwf>wwe>nba> and now nfl!
NFL---WOULD PUT WWE...TO SHAME...ONWARD WE GO---TRYING TO SMELL THESE RATS OUT...
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Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
@suuma - and would you think that the same lions would be a fumble on a goal line and refs "mistake" away from beating seattle in seattle? ari -2.5? its a basic "football" reasoning against my reasoning that almost nothing happens the way it is "supposed" to happen. if it was -the vegas would be long broke, covers wouldn't exist and any second grader who is on a lunch break would be making tons of money just by adding couple stats together.
i guess what i am trying to say is "let's ruuummmbblleee". welcome to new and improved wwf>wwe>nba> and now nfl!
NFL---WOULD PUT WWE...TO SHAME...ONWARD WE GO---TRYING TO SMELL THESE RATS OUT...
i was among few that went all inn for seattle. the situation was pretty much alike where manning was having a monster of the season and seattle reached the super bowl tiding refs "mistakes".
and the line was as it is now and over the days it even became settrle pk and -2 although it was released broncos -3. it is all here on covers in my threads.
you see where i am getting to?
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
What about that?
i was among few that went all inn for seattle. the situation was pretty much alike where manning was having a monster of the season and seattle reached the super bowl tiding refs "mistakes".
and the line was as it is now and over the days it even became settrle pk and -2 although it was released broncos -3. it is all here on covers in my threads.
i was among few that went all inn for seattle. the situation was pretty much alike where manning was having a monster of the season and seattle reached the super bowl tiding refs "mistakes".
and the line was as it is now and over the days it even became settrle pk and -2 although it was released broncos -3. it is all here on covers in my threads.
you see where i am getting to?
The unbalanced money split drove the line towards Seahawks, because it's a market. Where is the deal? At the end you picked the right team to win and all the big bookies in the world like offshores made a decent amount of money due to the juice by balancing the lines.
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Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
i was among few that went all inn for seattle. the situation was pretty much alike where manning was having a monster of the season and seattle reached the super bowl tiding refs "mistakes".
and the line was as it is now and over the days it even became settrle pk and -2 although it was released broncos -3. it is all here on covers in my threads.
you see where i am getting to?
The unbalanced money split drove the line towards Seahawks, because it's a market. Where is the deal? At the end you picked the right team to win and all the big bookies in the world like offshores made a decent amount of money due to the juice by balancing the lines.
If you look at Arizona's numbers they appear better than they actually are. Their first three games were significant wins but they never faced a decent defense. New Orleans, Chicago, and San Fran are not impressive defenses or impressive wins. The first good defense Arizona faced (Rams) they lost the game outright.
I think the lines makers mentality is that the rams beat both seattle and arizona by 2-3 points. Since Seattle won the game by 3 against Detroit, and they consider Arizona the same caliber team, then the line should be somewhere of the same (2.5). Then you have to take into account that Detroit should have technically won the game against the Seahawks and this time Detroit is home.
I think i just talked myself into Detroit after leaning AZ
The purpose of the line is draw action. Personally, I don't even use the line until it's time decide on my play. When I calculate the value of a game I typically assign a spread value (which I assume most of you do to). When the number favors the dog it's an easy pick, if it favors the favorite then I evaluate the strength and risk before taking it.
There is a mental game being played here too. In baseball one loss can snowball into 5,6 even 10 losses and each loss compounds the mental anxiety. Football is so competitive that you have to perform each week. Detroit is beating themselves and had they won against Seattle (a decent team) it might have gotten them over the losing mentality. Be that as it may, Arizona offense is more than capable of taking down Detroit and by my rough calculations I have them as -6.5 favorite.
GL, no matter which way go.
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Quote Originally Posted by U-S-A:
If you look at Arizona's numbers they appear better than they actually are. Their first three games were significant wins but they never faced a decent defense. New Orleans, Chicago, and San Fran are not impressive defenses or impressive wins. The first good defense Arizona faced (Rams) they lost the game outright.
I think the lines makers mentality is that the rams beat both seattle and arizona by 2-3 points. Since Seattle won the game by 3 against Detroit, and they consider Arizona the same caliber team, then the line should be somewhere of the same (2.5). Then you have to take into account that Detroit should have technically won the game against the Seahawks and this time Detroit is home.
I think i just talked myself into Detroit after leaning AZ
The purpose of the line is draw action. Personally, I don't even use the line until it's time decide on my play. When I calculate the value of a game I typically assign a spread value (which I assume most of you do to). When the number favors the dog it's an easy pick, if it favors the favorite then I evaluate the strength and risk before taking it.
There is a mental game being played here too. In baseball one loss can snowball into 5,6 even 10 losses and each loss compounds the mental anxiety. Football is so competitive that you have to perform each week. Detroit is beating themselves and had they won against Seattle (a decent team) it might have gotten them over the losing mentality. Be that as it may, Arizona offense is more than capable of taking down Detroit and by my rough calculations I have them as -6.5 favorite.
Phixer, I'm new with some of the terminology of betting. Can you help me out by letting me know what "double result" means on your prop pick of Wash. vs. A
tlanta? Thanking you in advance.
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Phixer, I'm new with some of the terminology of betting. Can you help me out by letting me know what "double result" means on your prop pick of Wash. vs. A
double result means wash wins first half and atlanta the game. that kind of bet won twice in atlanta's 4 games when they came back in the second half to rally and since it is +500 it is worth taking at least to me
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double result means wash wins first half and atlanta the game. that kind of bet won twice in atlanta's 4 games when they came back in the second half to rally and since it is +500 it is worth taking at least to me
The unbalanced money split drove the line towards Seahawks, because it's a market. Where is the deal? At the end you picked the right team to win and all the big bookies in the world like offshores made a decent amount of money due to the juice by balancing the lines.
seattle was not a better team not before and not after. manning choked? it is like saying that lbj is choking. money was never split there. i know this for a fact
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
The unbalanced money split drove the line towards Seahawks, because it's a market. Where is the deal? At the end you picked the right team to win and all the big bookies in the world like offshores made a decent amount of money due to the juice by balancing the lines.
seattle was not a better team not before and not after. manning choked? it is like saying that lbj is choking. money was never split there. i know this for a fact
double result means wash wins first half and atlanta the game. that kind of bet won twice in atlanta's 4 games when they came back in the second half to rally and since it is +500 it is worth taking at least to me
so ATL it`s a full game play and the 1st half go to redskins ?
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Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
double result means wash wins first half and atlanta the game. that kind of bet won twice in atlanta's 4 games when they came back in the second half to rally and since it is +500 it is worth taking at least to me
so ATL it`s a full game play and the 1st half go to redskins ?
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