Playing the spot, not just the team

Some interesting scheduling spots this week that I am looking at to bet on, and some I already have.

Last time the Ravens played overseas they got blown out and apparently Harbaugh has learned his lesson. Flew the team out a week in advance of the game so they’d be better prepared. Titans stayed back and will fly out Friday, just like the Bills did last week. Lots of bad blood between these teams but the Ravens are just better and coming off an ugly loss where they dominated the Steelers but could not close the deal, I expect them to win this game. The question is the cover. Titans are a public dog so although -4 seems high, it might not be high enough. Still, I’ll likely parlay the ML -200 with another game I like.

Last we saw the Commanders, they were getting their butts kicked by the Bears on national tv. That was a bad spot for them having just lost in overtime a few days earlier to a division rival. Now they’ve had 10 days to lick their wounds, after losing to a team that had lost 14 straight, and I expect them to be ready and focused against a Falcons team that is in a bit of a letdown spot. After losing to the Jaguars in England, they fly home and win a tough, close contest against the Texans and the have a big division battle against Tampa next week. So it’s a look ahead spot for them. If the Commanders can’t take advantage of this opportunity, then they really stink. I’m hoping this line, which is at +2.5, gets to +3 before I buy.

Speaking of the Bears. After collapsing against Denver at home in humiliating fashion and letting all their fans down, they went to Washington and shocked the Commanders, breaking a 14 game losing streak. Now that they got the monkey off their back and had a taste of victory, I expect them to do right by the fans and win one at home this week against the struggling Vikings. The Vikings just went toe to toe against the SB champs and have to play the red hot Niners next week on national TV. This is a bad spot for them against a division rival coming off 10 days rest that they should not overlook, but probably will. This line is also at 2.5+ and I’m hoping it gets to 3+ before I buy.

Last but not least we have the Dallas Cowboys, who were humiliated on national TV against a Niners team that completely outclassed them, going up against the LA Chargers coming off a bye. This game will be on Monday night so it’s another big national TV game and an opportunity for Dallas to win back some measure of respect against a dysfunctional Chargers team. I know that Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will be looking for revenge against his former team, and 9 out of 10 times is side with the revenge angle, as it is a powerful one, but HC of the Chargers is so bad, worse than fat McCarthy, and the scheduling spot Dallas is in, with a chance for a bit of redemption, that I have to side with the Cowboys. I expect this game to come down to turnovers and I’m betting Dallas wins in that category this week after losing in that category last week. Dallas -2.

Love the Bears play this weekend. BOL 

I question your Atlanta synopsis, because there's certainly no guarantee that this is a 'letdown' game spot. Just because a team has a division rival game next week does not mean the team is looking ahead. Atlanta is a fringe playoff contender, and wins against 'ok' teams - teams that can win on any given week - probably won't be overlooked. Furthermore, Desmond Ritter is just off his **clear** 'breakthrough' week as QB, throwing for 329 yards, rushing for another and looking very efficient. I'd be very cautious betting against Atlanta with a Commander team you never know will show up. If you recall, Ron Rivera benched at least 1 starting QB against the Bears last game because they were getting torched. Atlanta overall has a very solid defense on both levels.

I have no bet this game. Certainly not betting Commanders on the logic it's a 'letdown' game based on a division rival opponent game next Sunday. Just IMO.

Titans thesis, however, looks intriguing if they are flying in just 2 games before gameday.

So you cherry pick one reason out of 4 or 5 that I gave and claim that’s my entire reasoning for backing the commanders?! That was just the cherry on top. What about coming back from England and getting ready for a game that was itself hard fought? What about the Commanders getting humiliated on national TV by losing to team that had lost 14 straight. What about the 3 extra days of rest and preparation the Commanders have had over the Falcons. My god, man!!! At least read the damn thing. 

@begginerboy

 I did. And Atlanta went to London 2 weeks ago not last week, as they were home to the Texans, so I'm not sure why you brought that up. I assume you didn't know this because it doesn't make sense. Also, getting humiliated is not generally a reason why I would bet for a particular team. It's often just a sign that said team is bad!

Unless is it a tremendously embarrassing and bad beat that is. Chicago game was borderline on this fact. 

@MagixJohnson

 You were the one who called them out after the game. Don’t you remember??

“Magic Johnson Sounds Off as Washington Commanders Lose to Chicago Bears: 'No Intensity!'”

@begginerboy

 Commanders could win, of course, as the difference between both teams is not that great. But did you bet on this game thinking Atlanta played in England last week?? SMH.

learn to read!!! I never said last week?! 

@begginerboy

 Then WTF would you even bring it up?? It was 2 weeks ago FFS!! It didn't even affect them this past week. Moronic.

like the Dallas angle

Big spot and trends for Patriots

You are right on Ravens, no one is mentioning 3rd road game in a row for them

@Bet_The_House

 Little different scenario here tho as both teams are on the road . Only advantage I see to that on the ravens side is they flew out Monday morning . As mentioned bad blood between these 2 so it will most likely get scrappy . If the Raven's pass catchers can complete a catch the ravens could win this comfortably. If not it will be a drag out last minute field goal to win type game . Ravens are so Jekyll and Hyde hard to trust them on a week to week basis. 

Interesting for sure 

Not a good spot for Jville next Thursday on the road!

Commanders + Boys, I like that 

“worse than fat McCarthy.” 

@begginerboy

 Pokes 4-0 pre-bye week under big Mike....coming off the embarrassing beat down at the hands of your Niners, I like Dallas this week 

Update:

I am parlaying the Ravens with the Rams for even money. Like the Rams in this spot. Second consecutive home game and they have not won at home even though they played two close games against undefeated teams. This might be the first home game where opposing fans don’t outnumber LA fans. Rams also looking to get to .500. 

A bad trend for my Cowboys bet: teams are 1-19 following a game against the Niners going back to last year! That is incredible. Reminds me of a similar trend when teams played the Seahawks when they had the legion of boom. I might have to sell off some of the units I have on this game to lower my exposure. Haven’t decided. 

Some better news for the Bears. We can now get them at +3 and Sunday will be Dick Butkus day, so honoring the dead angle is in play. But Butkus is not any guy, he is an absolute legend!! And the forecast calls for 20-30 mph winds and rain! 

With you on all except the Cowboys... Not interested in Washington either but Baltimore and Chicago I'm on.

Seems to me the only teams the Cowboys can beat begin with "New" and are 4-11 combined with one of the wins coming against another "New" team, Dallas is running Tom Landry's offense and the qb is the most overrated qb this side of Eli Manning. Why on earth are they favored on the road makes as much sense as +3.5 last week against the buzzsaw 49ers. I can live with losing on the Chargers getting points off a bye week winning 2 in a row with a competent qb, rb & wr. The coach is questionable but he's up against McCarthy which is a draw.

Blitz - 4-0 before the bye week, ooh that's a valuable bit if info... I'm more interested in the 1-19 after playing SF.

Good stuff, Killer. Can’t disagree. Cowgirls are more gut feeling. I do think that defense will be able to turn the ball over against the Chargers. And that coach of theirs is not to be trusted. 

Good luck.

OP,

This is good stuff man - I am thinking exactly the same as you are.

Thanks for passing along the insight!

@MagixJohnson

 If you don't think that loss for the Commanders was humiliating, then you clearly don't follow that team. 

Getting blown out on National TV, to what many believe is the worst team in the NFL who had lost 14 straight? The game wasn't even as close as the blowout. 

Riverboat Ron is clearly playing for his job. The new ownership is closer than not in making major changes to this team. 

Defense was embarrassed.  Fans are restless. Howell may have 6 games to convince the top he's truly the guy they want to invest in moving forward. Rumblings about McClaurin wanting out. 

If the Commanders are ever gonna come to play it would be today. 

@begginerboy

Are you sure about that 1-19 trend? Steelers played Niners week 1 then won week 2 so if that was the 1 anomaly that means the entire previous season, every team that played the Niners, lost the following game.